Thursday Themes - Roman Empire Edition

Hey, Zach was likened to a Visigoth, so everything old is new again.... And the kids today have a newfound interest in the Roman Empire....

A Weather Update - I know, but let's get it out of the way.  It's a long, hilly walk and it'll be a little warm out there:

The issue being how many of your guys do you make trudge this course the full five time..... 

Amusingly, Geoff informs us that the weather in Rome is far better than at the next two venues:

Ironically,. given our weekend washout, Bethpage could be as muddy as it was for that 2002 Open, making it a shame to not have Sergio with us.  Oh, who am I kidding, I'm fine with Sergio curled up in the corner in the fetal position....

Scenes From The Pressers - In 2018, your humble blogger predictably started the week rooting for his homies, but by Saturday was screaming at the TV for Patrick Reed's ball to find a watery grave.... It's just that the more these guys talk.....

Shall we start with Wyndham Clark, the kind of rookie that ought to be seen but not heard.  This previous comment generated a bit of pushback

“I’d love to play Rory. I mean, I have the utmost respect for Rory. I mean, he’s one of our great ambassadors of our game, he’s obviously one of the best of all time and his career is still going. I have tons of respect for Rory. Because of that respect, I also want to beat him. I like to think I am better than him, and I want to prove that. I think it would be a little bit of David and Goliath, and I’m hoping I get that chance.”

OK, I think we all know what he's trying to say and have no problem with it.  The David and Goliath bit makes clear that he gets their relative standings in the game, but you'll also have sussed out that  the "I like to think I am better than him" won't look so great on a refrigerator....

Problem is that yesterday's clarification violates the First Rule of Holes:

“If you listen to the whole interview, I praised Rory and said how much I respect him and how good I think he is and how he's one of the best players in the last 20 years.

“And what I said was I think I'm better than him when I'm playing good -- if I don't think I'm better than every player out here, then what am I doing? If I'm trying to be the best player in the world, which is what I'm trying to be, I've got to believe that.

“Right now, maybe I'm not. He's had a way better career than me, that's obvious. But I also have to have that self-belief that I can beat anyone out here.

“It is kind of funny to me that people took it that way because they kind of saw that I'm better than him and I want to beat him. Well, of course I want to beat him and of course I believe that I can beat him.

“Yeah, it's interesting how things get taken out of context.”

I agree that it's funny that people took your comment that you think you're better than Rory to mean that, checking notes, you think you're better than Rory.  But this is the really weird bit, referencing that the entire Euro team got competitive reps at Wentworth :

So that's kind of how I prepared. I think the European team, it's great that they got to play, but I also think they might be maybe a little mentally fatigued as this week goes on. This is obviously a very intense environment and mentally challenging, and then also you put in a pretty physically demanding golf course being so hilly and up and down that maybe come Sunday they might be leaking oil and we'll be fresh.

The event at Wentworth finished a full twelve days before the first ball will be in the air at Marco Simone, so thanks for sharing your wishful thinking.  I'm still of a mind that the absence of competitive reps for the Yanks could be a real issue, and that Friday morning session playing alternate shot could be a little sketchy...

Then there's Brooksie, whose contempt for his fellow players is apparently unaffected by uniform:

Koepka on if the Ryder Cup came down to one match on the course how many of players would want to be in that position. “Very few. False confidence, I think…I don't know how many guys would want an eight-footer with this on the line.”

You're making it sound like they'd gag as badly as that guy in the last group at this year's Masters and at the Kiawah PGA.  I for one will be watching Brooksie on his eight-footers, but remind me again of why the players he just slammed want him as a teammate?

About Those Crowds - As you might have heard, the last U.S. road game win was in 1993, so what's it all about, Alfie?

Ryder Cup 2023: For the U.S., overcoming the hostile European crowds is critical

Pods, right?  I mean, I got that from Phil and he wouldn't BS us, would he?

The contrast in golf on these two points is obvious. Professional golfers almost never play in

front of a hostile crowd, but when they do, the fans are both extremely loud and incredibly close. So when you ask a group of Americans to play in front of 50,000 European fans who badly want them to lose, not only are they not used to it, but they have to perform with those fans almost literally breathing down their necks in a way that no other athletes are asked to do.

When you consider how overwhelming that might be, it starts to make a lot of sense that the last four Ryder Cups have been blowouts for the home team; all else being relatively equal, those thousands of partisan fans make an enormous, almost unquantifiable difference.

Which leads to the inevitable question: If you're the United States, and you're trying to win the Ryder Cup on the road for the first time in 30 years, how on earth do you deal with that? Especially when eight of your 12 players have never experienced a road Ryder Cup atmosphere?

Ear plugs?

They're certain that this guy's experience in July will help, although not sure there's much comfort to be found in his thoughts:

On Wednesday in Rome, several Americans spoke about that effect, but perhaps none had the recent perspective of Brian Harman. Although Harman has never even played in a Ryder Cup, he

won the Open Championship in July in the face of regular heckling from a small but vocal portion of the British crowd.

"It was overwhelming at times," he admitted. "I don't think there's any way to prepare for it. I expect them to be as fervent and I expect to be at times overwhelmed by it, just like I was at the Open Championship."

Harman was uniquely open in how a fervent crowd can affect you, and candid about how difficult it is to prepare for that level of negative energy.

"The best you can do is just acknowledge it and just move forward and try not to let it affect you as best you can," he said. "But it will affect you. You'd be silly not to think that. Obviously the home teams in the Ryder Cups have been extremely successful, and a lot of that has to do with the fans. They can affect outcomes of matches. It's just our job to try to stay as present as possible and execute more than the other guys and see what happens."

A Merseyside crowd is not to be taken lightly, but it's Triple-A ball as compared to that which we'll see this week.  Not only does the event draw the crazies, but there's so little golf on the course that all of those 50,000 people admitted will be in your ear simultaneously.

But the solution seems more likely to be to channel your inner Simona and Garfunkel:

Brooks Koepka was one of just two players who spoke Wednesday who had actually experienced playing the Europeans away from home—he posted a 1-2-1 record at the 2018 Paris Cup—and he was typically terse in his response.

"I don't think it was overwhelming at all," he said, taking the opposite view from Harman. "I don't know, it was a different week for me even than probably most of the other guys. I'm curious to see how this one is. I'm excited for it. I enjoy the silence sometimes."

Overwhelming struck me as an admission of defeat as well...

"I enjoy it," said Rickie Fowler, the other player besides Koepka with experience in Europe. "I think a lot of the guys on the team this year do, as well ... even if they're a Ryder Cup rookie, they've been a part of other teams along the way. The reason I enjoy it is you're the underdog. It's fun to go try and prove them wrong. Our cheers are—yeah, we will have some fans, but kind of the quietness becomes our cheers."

Max Homa is a convert to the idea of silence as well and has been boning up on what it might be like in a unique way.

"I nerded out and watched a bunch of the old away Ryder Cups on YouTube and just started really enjoying the silence because it meant that our team was doing well," he said.

"I guess I don't know what it feels like yet. I guess like the concept of it, if you can flip it in your mind that every time they're not cheering, that's great. If you can get it into your mind that you'd like to make a bunch of people sad, it's also great. I feel like that's something I've been thinking of. I think it's just kind of changing that in your mind."

There's a reason for the 30-year gap....

More importantly, we've frequently discussed Alan Shipnuck's prediction of an era of U.S. hegemony, although what we seem to have instead is an era of home-team dominance.  It's hard to see this U.S. team being routed, though we though the same in 2018.

The Fashion Beat - it's quite the show:

At least the two captain's wives get the red v. blue thing....

But the funnier bits was this bit of poor tailoring:

What's Keegan's inseam?  That's actually how most pants look on your humble blogger....

I find the no-sock look bizarre on the golf course, but for evening wear as well:

Combined with bad golf tans it's quite the look.

Confidentially Yours - Golf.com has a Ryder Cup Confidential for us, which I'll use to segue into our wrap-up:

The 44th Ryder Cup kicks off Friday at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club outside of Rome, with the Americans hoping to pick up where they left off after their 19-9 blowout victory at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin in 2021. Problem is, the U.S. hasn’t won on European soil since 1993. So let’s start there: what is holding the Americans back overseas?

Ryan Barath: I think the one thing holding back the American team the most is the 13th man for Europe — momentum. For some reason at venues outside of the U.S. there is an unmeasurable intangible that seems to click for the Euros and gets under the skin of the Americans. Similar to the recent Solheim Cup, the U.S. team started out with a dominating performance but the Europeans clawed their way back on Saturday and Sunday as the pressure ramped up, and I think we could see something similar in Rome.

It's a little hard to see Ryan's qualifications here, as the answer seems to be that the Solheim Cup has held them back... Or, sorry, was it momentum, though he doesn't explain why that Big-M from 2016 dissipated in 2018.   

Josh Sens: Pick your sports cliche. Home cooking. Team cohesiveness. Playing with a chip on your shoulder as the underdog, etc. Maybe those were factors. But more than anything, I think we are dealing with the law of small numbers and the way we draw big conclusions from limited sample sizes. In the early decades of the Cup, when the Americans won everything on both sides of the Atlantic, there really were big differences between the teams. You could have run simulations of them and the U.S. would have continued dominating. In more recent times, not so much. Many of the matches have come down to little more than a coin toss. We try to assign meaning to this in retrospect but my guess is that if you ran 10,000 simulations of these teams, the record would be pretty close to even.

Gee, Josh, most of these road losses weren't remotely close.  I think we all understand that road games are hard, still thirty years of superior roster depth should have allowed as win or two, no? 

Sean Zak: They need more chances! It’s been six Cups over here, which is one helluva losing streak. But it’s not like they play home and away every year. I say this a bit in jest, but the Americans are basically due to win one over here, out of sheer randomness. Unfortunately for them, they’ll have to wait four more years until it happens.

James Colgan: The thing holding the Americans back has been … everything. Bad play, unfriendly setup, bad breaks, weak roster construction, poor pairings. The good news is, they seem to have rectified a handful of those issues in the last 24 months, and they certainly don’t have the bravado they did in ‘19. The bad news is that the Euros have all the things they did in ‘19, and lots more top-end talent. They’re a legit threat.

How bad is gold journalism?   Colgan at least hints at the root cause (you'd think paying Phil in foursomes might warrant a call out), though his deep dive into the travails of that 2019 Ryder Cup are undermined by the pesky detail that there was no Ryder Cup in 2019.  It's OK, James, your publication and you aren't expected to know much about the game.  

As you've learned, your humble blogger fixates on details of dubious relevance, but see what you think of this factoid.  You've heard ad nauseum about 1993, and you'll see the clip of Davis Love making that putt more than a few times.  So, if '93 was our last road win, that means the first of the six road losses was in 1997 at Valderrama.   Can anyone name two players that made their Ryder Cup road game debuts in 1997?  Isn't Tiger and Phil (who actually played in '95) as good an answer as any?  That the two best players in American golf (in the world, at times) haven't won a road game is quite telling, the only thing stranger would be the to put these guys in charge of the U.S. Ryder Cup effort..... What?  Well, that answers my questions....

Marco Simone Golf and Country Club will make its debut as Ryder Cup host. What do fans watching at home need to know about this year’s venue?

Barath: I think the mix of drivable par-4s is going to be the key to success for whatever team comes out on top. Although the Americans are thought of as the longer team, the stats show that head-to-head driving distance and accuracy is almost a complete wash. Plus, with Hovland and Rory leading the way, those drivable holes could make all the difference in tight matches.

Sens: I recommend the carbonara. Beyond that, like a lot of Ryder Cup venues, this one isn’t going to be all that memorable from a design standpoint. The pins will be set up for birdies and match-play drama, and the winner will be the team that putts the best.

Zak: Fans watching at home will love the 16th hole. It’s a downhill, drivable par-4 that every single player is going to go for. Essentially, it’s the same length as one of those brutish par-3s we saw at LACC during this summer’s U.S. Open. Which, on one hand, will prove to you that par is irrelevant. But this week it’ll mostly just offer some fantastic shot-making during the waning moments of these matches.

Colgan: Marco Simone is not essentially European in any way that matters, meaning the tall, wispy grass and brutish winds will not be the factor they usually are. To me, the course honestly looks like it’d be just as comfortable in about 27 U.S. states. The rough will be thick, and the fairways will be tight, but it’s also a Ryder Cup in Europe — if you weren’t expecting that, what were you thinking?

While the scene of Europe selling its home games to the highest bigger has resulted in a series of iffy venues, this at least was renovated with match play in mind.   Of course, Jack built Dove Mountain with match play in mind, so we'll see if this venue generates the kind of play they have in mind.

Can the Americans break the away-game slump? Will Justin Thomas find his former form? Those are just a couple of the talkers we’re monitoring. What’s your No. 1 storyline for Ryder Cup week?

Barath: There is no doubt that Justin Thomas’ game will be a focus right from the start of play, but I think the real story lurking in the background is about Scottie Scheffler’s putting. He has not had a great year with the flatstick, and when the chips are down and his opponent is making him finish out a testy three-footer, how Scottie holds up could determine the outcome of more than one match.

Sens: Brooks Koepka, the man cast as one of the villains for his LIV defection, runs the tables and is anointed the new Captain America.

Zak: It has to be Thomas. From the sounds of it — more interview scoops from Fred Couples — Thomas might be set up to play five matches this week. That’s one helluva risky strategy. If Thomas can earn two points this week, his reputation will be cleared. If he ends up with anything short of that, it might become a tricky story for him and captain Zach Johnson to handle.

Colgan: There are bigger stories, but I have a sneaky suspicion a whole lotta golf fans are gonna leave this week knowing Ludvig Aberg’s name. Really excited to see the Swedish Sensation get to work.

At least it won't be Justine Reed....at least,  I don't think it will be.  The great thing is you've got 24 choices, and we really don't know, do we?

Let’s get into some predictions. Who is your MVP pick for each team?

Barath: Viktor Hovland for the Euros and, as an out of the blue pick for the Americans, I’m going with Brian Harman.

Sens: Jon Rahm. As Carlota Ciganda reminded us this past week, the Spaniards just seem born for this fiery team match play stuff. And Koepka for the Americans, because the irony of a LIV defector carrying the team just seems too rich for it not to happen.

Zak: Justin Thomas earns 3.5 points, playing all five matches, and Ludvig Aberg earns 3.5 as well, but from four matches.

Colgan: Rahm. These are the weeks he lives for, and his swagger on the 16th on Wednesday afternoon was … noticeable.

All respectable choices, but I don't notice any votes for Rory....

Two years ago, Scottie Scheffler was ranked 21st in the world and hadn’t won on Tour. Yet in his Ryder Cup debut he won 2.5 points at Whistling Straits and took down Jon Rahm in singles. Eight Ryder Cup rookies will suit up this week (four from each side). Who is your pick to turn heads from that group?

Barath: To go along with my prediction of MVP, I think Brian Harman is going to show a lot of people just how great of a player he can be during match play. His game pairs up well with a lot of other players on his team and his putting is rock solid. If he’s hitting a lot of approaches into greens first, it will put a lot of pressure on opponents to match, and that could lead to mistakes.

Sens: Ludvig Aberg. Big-hitting Swede. Former top-ranked amateur who shined in college and has been tearing it up since turning pro. He’s been great on every stage he’s stepped on. Look for more of the same.

Zak: Sens is right. This course is set up to show off his skillset much more than, say, Matt Fitzpatrick. The Euros will win and they’ll count Aberg as an eight-time Ryder Cupper before he even finishes the week.

Colgan: Ludvig!

I would think Harmon would have to be a big factor this week for the Americans to contend, but is it as big a ballpark as Sean Zak implies?  That's not what I've been hearing, but I certainly can't wait to take the measure of Ludvig.

Drumroll, please. Who wins the 2023 Ryder Cup and why?

Barath: The streak will continue and the Europeans will take back the Ryder Cup come Sunday.

Sens: The bookies have this close for good reason. You could make the argument that the Europeans are stronger in the top seven or eight. But I’d say the U.S. has more depth and that will be the difference in Sunday singles. The Americans win this in a photo finish.

Zak: Europe wins 15-13 in the closest Ryder Cup in more than a decade. Matt Fitzpatrick holes the winning putt. We have a lot to write about.

Colgan: USA in a 14 tie. Americans retain, Euros rage about “antiquated” nature of ties; the golf world wins in an absolute slugfest.

If the U.S. "retains" in a 14-14 tie, I predict that the reaction will be quite different than that we saw in Spain.

As is typical, I come at it from the other direction.  Given the aging out of the Euros historical talent base and the depth of the American talent pool, doesn't the U.S. have to win an away game at some point?  If not now, when (yes, the answer to that is 2018, but that's my point).  I view this as one that the U.S. pretty much needs to win.  The alternative of alternating home team wins might become boring rather quickly.

Will they?  Of course it's not knowable, but if it goes pear-shaped, we'll be disappointed that the Netflix cameras won't be in the team room.  That wasn't exactly a show of confidence, was it?

The best of the event to this observer is the foursomes sessions and, given that those will be the morning (zero dark thirty here), I'll be firing up my DVR upon awakening tomorrow.  That's my way of informing my readers that I don't expect to blog tomorrow.  Enjoy this unique weekend of golf, as well as your weekend in general, and we'll dissect it all on Monday morning.