Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Midweek Musings - You Complete Me Edition

OK, I know I didn't expect to be with you this morning, but the Wednesday Game™ had been moved to midday to avoid that pesky morning rain...

We'll just spend a few minutes on Captain Zach's picks, then I'll leave you to get on with your day.

As you might have discerned from my header, the self-help language is quite the tell:

“A lot of time, a lot of energy has gone into this process,” Johnson said Tuesday at the announcement. “That’s probably no secret. I am very confident in these six, and my confidence comes from the mere fact that I am surrounding myself with great people.

“We came up with what we felt was six guys that made these other six [auto-qualifiers] whole.”

 

If our top six guys needed Brooks to be whole, that doesn't augur well for the event, does it?

You'll have heard the names already, but here are your six picks:

With his picks, Johnson added Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Sam Burns to the squad on Tuesday.

I'll note that your humble blogger got five out of six, missing only Sam Burns.....The surprise there being a complete absence of buzz over Burns....

Golf Digest asks the obvious questions:

Biggest surprise among the captain’s picks?

Honestly, I can’t say there is a surprise here. The picks seemed obvious once the sun went down at the Tour Championship. Keegan Bradley and Lucas Glover really needed to show something at East Lake and didn’t. Cam Young, while a great ball-striker, didn’t advance to the playoff finale, and his glaring weakness is putting (145th in strokes gained). History shows us putting wins Ryder Cups. Also, tough to take two rookie captain’s picks to Europe, and Johnson already had zeroed in on one newcomer, Burns, who CAN putt. —Dave Shedloski

My own analysis had the final spot coming down to Burns and Young, with Bradley and Glover out of the loop. I'm not saying it was a coin flip, but when you compare résumés between Burns
and Young, along with the strength of their games (Burns a tremendous putter, Young better from tee to green), it was really, really close. In the end, Burns' relationships may have put him over the top, particularly his friendship with Scheffler, so we'll call him the most surprising pick. —Shane Ryan

Burns. I think it was the right call—both in terms of his fit to Marco Simone and within the U.S. clubhouse—but since his win at the WGC-Dell Match Play his play has been uninspired. —Joel Beall

To me, the surprise was the lack of razzle dazzle in the whole announcement. I realize this isn’t the most made-for-TV event in the world, but with Koepka, Thomas and Burns there were some interesting wrinkles to be resolved. Within 10 minutes, ZJ announced all the names—starting with Burns—and proceeded to questions. It was all business, and in many ways, a revealing tone-setter for ZJ’s approach to the contest. —Luke Kerr-Dineen

It simply has to be Burns, as there wasn't much drama in those other picks, as evidenced by the fact that I got all five.  The issue, as the guys hit on, is that Burns has simply played quite poorly since winning the Match Play,  as Shack notes here:

Sam Burns - Went 0-3-2 in his Presidents Cup debut but seemed comfortable enough and looks like a fit with Scottie Scheffler, who might not be the easiest Team USA member to pair up. Burns would have been a tough player to leave off after winning the final WGC Match Play this year. Yet the 27-year-old scored his second top 10 last week since that win, meaning the form was acceptable enough to rationalize a pick also looking like an investment in USA’s future matches over two older once-elite major winners like Keegan Bradley or Lucas Glover.

I had expected the investment in youth argument to be made about Cam Young, but it's fair as far as it goes.

One is left with the impression that the Burns pick has quite a bit to do with his relationship with Scottie Scheffler, and it's a bit puzzling to think that a stud like Scottie would be awkward fit in the team formats.  I'll accept that Scheffler-Burns is a comfortable pairing for the two guys, but does anyone love that team competitively?  I'm even unclear as to which format works best, given their complementary skillsets.

But the karma is amusing in an ironic sense, because Burns was the victim of one of the most puzzling Walker Cup snubs ever:

After winning the Jack Nicklaus Award as the Division I college player of the year in June, Sam
Burns did what a lot of talented collegiate golfers do: He announced he would not be returning to school for his junior year at LSU this fall, but instead would turn pro. However, the 21-year-old from Shreveport, La., has one more accomplishment he wanted to achieve before making the formal jump: play for the U.S. team in the Walker Cup. So he announced he wouldn't be turning pro until the end of the summer, hoping that his impressive college resume would be enough for him to make squad.

Turns out the wait was for naught as Burns’ name was not among the 10 listed Sunday night when the USGA unveiled the 2017 U.S. team at the conclusion of the U.S. Amateur Championship.

The decision came as a surprise to many considering that after his stellar season in Baton Rouge, Burns continued to impress this summer. He was fifth at the Northeast Amateur and, having won a sponsor’s exemption into the Barbasol Championship through a 18-hole qualifying event, he went on to finish T-6 in the PGA Tour event in July held opposite the British Open. He ranked 21st in the World Amateur Golf Ranking heading last week at Riviera Country Club, where he finished T-16 in stroke-play qualifying before losing in the first round of match play.

Not sure he really earned this pick, though he was certainly owed one, especially as he took the Walker Cup snub graciously.

Biggest snub?

You have to say Young here. Young's résumé in the big events was stellar, he played extremely well at the Match Play in March, but most importantly, and this cannot be emphasized enough: FRED COUPLES SAID HE WAS ON THE TEAM! That's the PR blunder of the entire Ryder Cup picks cycle, by far, and just imagine how it must feel if you're Young, read that story, and think your spot is secure, only to lose it to Burns at the final moment. I'm not saying this isn't painful for a guy like Bradley, who loves the Ryder Cup, or even Glover, but to be granted a pick by a vice captain in a media appearance and then to watch it fade away? That's so brutal. —S.R.

Probably Bryson DeChambeau. A top five at the PGA Championship, fresh off a 58 in his LIV Golf win at The Greenbrier and a good performance at Whistling Straits. A good driver of the ball, he’d probably do well in Rome. Yes, there’s maybe a chemistry issue with the rest of the team. But it sounds like he didn’t even get a phone call. I understand why he’s not on the team, but even still: It’s a snub. —L.K.D.

How about none. I mean, Young? Save for a nice run at Royal Liverpool his season has been a disappointment, underlined by the fact he failed to make it to the Tour Championship. Bradley? Two wins, yet his win at the Travelers was his only top-10 finish in a full-field event since March. DeChambeau? Unfortunately, no gifts from the content gods. The truth is the depth of the U.S. team wasn’t as strong as it was projected in terms of performance, and no one who was left off can say their performance warranted selection. —J.B.

A case can be made that the biggest snub might be Dustin Johnson, who went 5-0 at Whistling Straits. But that was two years ago, and DJ is 2-7 in Europe and 12-9 overall, which means he had a losing record until his 2021 performance. That leaves Bradley, who won twice in the 2022-23 season, and, more importantly, is 21st in putting, the importance of which we already have stressed. And, let’s face it, Zach needs putters when you look at the problems on the greens from the likes of Scottie Scheffler and captain’s picks Morikawa and Thomas. —D.S.

Like Joel Beall, I reject the concept of "snubbing", because none of these guys played sufficiently well that they had a pick coming....

But Shane Ryan is spot on with his comments about Fred Couples, even justifying the use of the Caps-Lock key.  I mean, WTF!  There's precious little that Ryder Cup cart drivers actually do, but misleading guys that they've made the team is about as bad as it gest.  I would argue that Fred should have his cart keys confiscated and, more importantly, we should dispense with any discussion of a Ryder Cup captaincy for the man.  I mean, this is even worse than the rain suits at Celtic Manor....

You'll know this is an easy one:

Pick that might haunt Z.J.?

No need for mental gymnastics here; a lot will be riding on Thomas, because (gestures wildly to the last four months). —J.B.

Yeah, this one is obvious: Thomas. The JT discourse has dominated Ryder Cup talk for the last month and has almost become political. There's talk that he doesn't "deserve" it, that he's only
making it because he's part of the buddy system, etc. etc. Personally, I think Johnson was absolutely right to take him, but you know that if he goes to Italy and plays poorly—or even plays well but loses his matches—it's going to be a euphoric round of "I told you so!"s from the anti-JT set. It's the only pick that could really backfire on Johnson. —S.R.

Easy. JT. “You just don’t leave JT at home,” Johnson said, summing up his pick of Thomas. Zach is betting that Thomas, who pairs well with his buddy Spieth, will rise to the occasion. He had better. Let’s point out that JT makes a lot of birdies, even during a substandard year on the greens. He’ll be under a microscope all week in Italy. —D.S.

Thomas. Every great Ryder Cup player—which JT is—gets a benefit-of-the-doubt captain’s pick if he needs it. This is JT’s. Either he’ll play well and prove ZJ right or underperform and come in for all the heat. There’s no in between. —L.K.D

I'm OK with the pick and probably would have made it myself, but can we lease stop fawning over that Ryder Cup Task Force.  I correctly predicted JT would be on the team. but it's troubling that it may be more because of that buddy system than his actual play.  Geoff had this on JT:

Justin Thomas - Perhaps a “controversial” pick in others years given that three players accrued more points and Thomas did not make the Tour Championship, but America’s once vaunted depth looks pretty thin right now and none of the alternatives seem nearly as reliable as Thomas to bring the Ryder Cup passion, drive and record (6-2-1). “He has, without question, been the heart and soul of Team USA Ryder Cups,” said Johnson. “Our emotional leader I would say, and I don't think he would argue with that. He just leads by example.”

That heart and soul might do more for me if he could, yanno, putt.... But I would add Sam Burns here, because if that Scheffler-Burns pairing goes bust, it'll be on Zach.

This actually might be the better argument:

He's a road warrior, and it's wildly difficult to play on the road in the Ryder Cup

Thomas went 4-1 in the Paris Ryder Cup, including a singles victory over Rory McIlroy, while almost everyone else on the American team was getting smoked. He kept the U.S. alive in the Melbourne Presidents Cup while the rest of the team sleepwalked through the first two days. This guy is a major road hound, and that's exactly what you need in a situation like the one facing the U.S., which hasn't won a Ryder Cup on European soil in 30 years. The idea that you can throw someone like Lucas Glover or Cam Young or Keegan Bradley out there and expect them to be ready to handle that fire in the same way is borderline absurd.

Obviously the crowd in Melbourne was relatively tame compared to what we'll see in Rome, but this is likely the pick that will determine Zach's captaincy.

Overall impression of the U.S. team?

I'll give Johnson an "A" here. I've been impressed by the U.S. Ryder Cup task force/captain's committee since Whistling Straits, and I think their analysis and choices continue to be on point. He made the six picks he should have, he created a team that has a ton of chemistry and cohesiveness, and he's given himself a great shot to be the first American captain to win in Europe in 30 years. That doesn't mean there's no room for criticism; if Spieth and Thomas in particular can't get the job done, people will rightly be wondering if he should have taken players with more form, like Bradley and Glover. —Shane Ryan

Like any coach assessing how to assemble an effective (i.e. winning) team, Johnson obviously considered relationships as well as skill sets. Zach said his six picks “made the other six whole. They’re a great fit for Marco Simone and a great fit for each other, which is massive.” His selections give him obvious pairings with JT-Spieth, Burns-Scheffler to go along with Cantlay-Schauffele. Koepka, Morikawa and Fowler can mesh with anyone. He tried to build a cohesive team rather than one based simply on perceived form. It’s a risk, but with USA losing the last six overseas, it’s one worth taking. —D.S.

Well, it seems like every four years the U.S. looks really formidable on paper until the match begins on European soil and, suddenly, we realize how foolish that conviction is. All that said … the team looks pretty good. Wyndham Clark is perhaps the biggest question mark outside of Thomas, but Clark was such a killer at LACC and his short game is so good that fans shouldn’t worry too much about his Ryder Cup debut. Despite the team’s collective struggle over the past two months it’s still deeper than anything Europe will push out. Winning a modern Ryder Cup on the road is damn tough, but if any club can break the slump, it’s this one. —J.B.

ZJ did everything by the book, solid and unspectacularly. It was to the point, and all business. As for the rest of the team, Johnson’s message was clear: The picks are there to pair with the automatic qualifiers and bring the best out of them. Picks like Fowler, Morikawa and Thomas have the record to balance the inexperience of automatic qualifiers like Homa, Clark and Harman. Outside of the top-to-bottom quality is the fact that this team meshes together really well, personality-wise. There’s only one thing left to do for the U.S. team: Get to work. —L.K.D.

The guys got a single question, though seem to be answering two very different questions.  I agree with their answer to the unasked question, to wit, Zach made very predictable and supportable picks.  

As for how the U.S. team projects, one has that nagging sense that we've seen this movie before.  Alan Shipnuck promised us an era of U.S. dominance, but this team radiates that "better-on-paper" vibe that we've seen so often.  Even those six automatic qualifiers come with huge question marks, beginning with Scheffler's putter.

I'll finish with a follow-up column from Mike Bamberger that's quite the head-scratcher.  I've refereed to Mike as the conscience of our game, but he's quite clearly lost touch with the modern touring professional, as evidenced by his prior column, a fever dream that Zach would leave Koepka at home in an act of patriotism, ignoring that every element of the PGA Tour organization is committed to that Saudi partnership.  But the current effort takes the normalization to a depressing conclusion:

Brooks Koepka almost made the team on points alone, on the basis of his second-place* finish at
the Masters and his win at the PGA Championship. The top six players on a point system qualified for the team. Koepka was seventh. The only thing that could have kept him off the team was the thing that kept Mickelson from having any kind of role with it: his contract with LIV Golf, which was once seen as an existential threat to the PGA Tour.

Now, at least by public statement, LIV Golf and the PGA Tour are in the process of becoming business partners. On that basis, the threat is over. Saudi millions and likely billions, if this partnership happens, will find its way to various accounts in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

So on that basis, money has won again. Koepka’s contract with LIV Golf was no longer a disqualifying mark. On that basis, if you let that logic play out, Mickelson should now be on the very, very short list to become a U.S. Ryder Cup captain.

Mike is slightly ahead of the facts on the ground, but that is the logical end point of the world since June 6th.  We're still waiting to see if any price is to be paid by those who conspired against the organization in which they became rich and famous, but Mike thinks the smart money should be on "No".   After the shock of June 6th, I certainly don't want to talk him down from his cynicism....

On the other hand, the thought of Phil as the U.S. Captain at Bethpage in 2025 might put me off my feed for a while.... At this point, I'm not even clear on who I'll be rooting for in Rome./

We still need to get to the European Team, which we'll do in the coming days as the gear up for their captain's picks.  I'll see you later in the week.

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Monday, August 28, 2023

Weekend Wrap - Viktory Edition

So, while that was impressive, how exactly are we to amuse ourselves until September 29th?

The Viktor Era - Personally, I thought the Lucas Glover Era dragged, but the Viktor Hovland Era will be lit.  It was quite the performance, When you include the gap between X-Man and third place, that's some serious separation, diminished only by that tiny 30-player field.

The Tour Confidential panel has some thoughts, however scattered and unfocused they might be:

1. Viktor Hovland blew away the competition at the Tour Championship, finishing at 27 under to win the FedEx Cup title by five and claim the $18 million top prize. This, mind you, also follows his final-round 61 and win at the BMW Championship a week ago. So, what in the world has gotten into Viktor Hovland?

Ryan Barath: For Viktor, I think it simply comes down to learning how to become a professional golfer. Now I realize that doesn’t make a ton of sense, but for context, he mentioned recently that
what has helped his short game even more than improving his technique was improving his misses. Rather than be hyper-aggressive and shortside himself he’s picking smarter targets, placing himself in better spots around the green and going back farther off the tee. At the highest level, those misses add up, and reducing those small mistakes has made a huge difference. On top of that he’s gained driver distance from speed training and along the way improved his bank balance too.

James Colgan: I don’t think anything has gotten into Viktor Hovland. As best I can tell, one of the best younger players on the planet just won the biggest event of his young life. It’ll be only a matter of time until we’re asking the same thing at the end of a major championship. He seriously is just THAT good.

Josh Berhow: For Viktor, it’s usually been about his short game. He’s always been an excellent ball-striker, but the rest has held him back, and he hasn’t been shy to admit that. Last week he was 22nd in SG: around the greens and 2nd in SG: putting. At East Lake, he was 20th and 1st. But what’s really apparent the past couple of weeks is his confidence, and those close calls are now turning into wins. He said it well himself on Sunday night: “Before it felt like, Man, I have to not give up any shots to shoot a good round of golf. However, now that’s not true anymore. I can hit one bad and I can get up and down and move on and birdie the next three and then suddenly we’re right there.”

Thanks, Ryan, for doing the my job for me, pointing out that your answer makes little sense.... Common ground, baby!  Can we also spare a moment to enjoy the Christmas-sweater level of ugliness of the J. Lindbergh shirt.... Viktor is completely charming on the subject, making it clear he just wears whatever they send him, still one can only wonder if, like Jack, he's color blind....

There seems little doubt that Viktor has attacked his weaknesses, and is certainly chipping better than he used to.  That said, Josh Berhow's stats paint a slightly different picture, because those SG: Around the Green numbers aren't all that special, especially 20th in a 30-player field.  To me it still seems a weakness, though his ball-striking and putting are good enough, at least certain weeks, to cover.

But an impressive stretch for sure, and it's not hard to imagine that he'll be a force in Rome.

2. Now that the first year of the (slightly) new-look FedEx Cup Playoffs is in the books — with 70 making the first stop, 50 at the next and 30 at the Tour Championship — what did you think? Do you like this format better than 125 making the playoffs? What would you change?

Gee, could we start with that ridiculous staggered start.... I mean, if it's a clown show you're after, I've got just the thing for you.

Barath: I think this year has been a big improvement from a drama perspective, and really created a need for top players to play more often, especially in less popular events. If I had it my way I’d tighten it up even more to just the top fifty and cut 10 players after each of the first two events leading up to the Tour Championship. I want to see the top 50 really go at it and I think having the playoffs start at 50 would make later season events matter even more for those on the bubble.

Colgan: Seventy, 125, who cares? Sure, it improves the quality of the product marginally, but it doesn’t change the fact that the FedEx Cup is by far the least compelling “postseason” in pro sports.

Berhow: I didn’t notice too much of a difference from this year to last, which might be to say it’s really easy to forget they went from 125 to 70. I’m going to wait until I see how the new fall series shakes out before I make any big conclusions here, although for starters I wish we could have things stay the same for just a bit longer. The constant change — although some of it is forced via LIV, etc. — is exhausting to keep up with. Even for media members!

What the hell is Ryan babbling on about?  We just finished a season in which the top players were forced to play fourteen specific events, leaving exactly no time for them to play elsewhere.

As for Josh, the Fall nonsense has been severed from the actual Tour season, so by all means watch that before offering an answer, though that's not even his strangest bit.  He has to be the only golf journalist complaining about the turmoil, because God forbid the world actually offers a subject of interest about which to write.  

But James Colgan actually says the quiet part out loud, to wit, that the faux-playoffs are a hot mess.  That provides a segue into this kinda silly premise:

This oughta be good, right?  But set Rory aside, lets' lead with Jon Rahm's gripes:

“I don’t think it’s the best we can come up with,” Rahm said Tuesday. “I think I’ve expressed my dislike towards the fact that you can come in ranked No. 1 in the FedExCup. You can win every single tournament up until this one. You have a bad week, you finish 30th, and now you’ll forever be known as 30th in the FedExCup this season. I don’t think that’s very fair.”

Who wants to remind Jon that golf wasn't designed to be fair....

But what Rahm is arguing for substantively is at least coherent.  The whole problem with the FedEx Cup is that they're trying to accomplish two mutually-exclusive objectives, to make it a season-long competition but simultaneously leave the outcome in doubt until Sunday at East Lake.  Most will remember the year Vijay had it all locked down before the Tour Championship,  

But this is the gist of Rory's argument:

But if the PGA Tour wants a true “playoff” to decide its season-long champion, isn’t this exactly what it should be looking for? That’s what McIlroy thinks.

He was asked if it’s fair that Rahm’s season will go down simply as finishing 18th this week despite his incredible run in the first half of the year.

“A basketball team could go 82-0 and lose in the first round of the playoffs,” McIlroy said Sunday night.

I might have gone with hockey, given the Bruins playoff loss.

The problem seems to come from folks not understanding our game.  Everyone remembers the hue upsets (the Patriots are mentioned as well), but for something to be an upset requires there to be a favorite.  There are no favorites in golf, no mater the extent to which you shrink the fields.  The best players only win maybe 5% of their starts, so how do you structure a "playoff" around that?

You can't, so I would argue that the choice is between Jon Rahm's season-long points race, and a high-stakes shoot-out.  There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, unless you mistakenly think it means something or relates to that which comes before.  That's where the hot mess originates, the necessary points resets and that staggered start at East Lake.  I would use the points race to qualify (and I've certainly no problem with rewarding the top finishers there), but after that I'd just create a high-stakes shootout and watch the feral fun that would ensue.

Ryder Cup Tuesday - I don't know what job Zach Johnson signed up for, but there are going to be some pissing and moaning after he reveals his picks tomorrow.  I'll also warn readers that I have golf planned for Wednesday morning, so it's unclear when I'll get a chance to blog the actual picks.  

Eamon Lynch has thoughts on one of Zach's dilemmas, not that I think there's much doubt as to which way he'll go:


Here's the case for Brooksie:

Koepka didn’t earn a place in Rome but deserves one. Not for what he did on LIV, but in spite of
it. Exhibition golf only counts toward his bank balance, but when he did face the world’s best this year, he delivered: victory at the PGA Championship, runner-up at the Masters, top 20 at the U.S. Open. He has been his old, familiar self — competitive, ornery, focused, cutthroat. Even Europe’s stars would feel pressure facing him, which can’t be said of many who will line out for the U.S. For all his bro belligerence on social media and the assiduous marketing of himself as a lone wolf, Koepka is popular in the team room. He didn’t sign on to lawsuits or take shots at his former circuit. PGA Tour politics are immaterial to the Ryder Cup and he is by far LIV’s most competitively relevant member.

Johnson has options, but few that are Koepka’s equal. For Ryder Cup captains, there’s often a fine line between decisions being hailed as bold or derided as botched. Johnson faces criticism whatever call he makes on Koepka. Better to be slated for bringing a controversial soldier into battle than for leaving him in the barracks just because he’s a mercenary.

There's also those five majors on his C.V., so you might be curious what the case against is....

The sentiment — common in some quarters — that Koepka should not play for the U.S. because he joined LIV is legally problematic. Any move by the PGA of America or its agents, in this case Johnson, to punish a LIV player out of misplaced loyalty to the PGA Tour is fodder for an antitrust complaint. Even if Johnson has an aversion to LIV, he must assess Koepka by the same standards as other candidates. And if he decides against including him, he’d better be prepared to explain why in granular detail.

Not much there, and all of it went out the window on June 6th.  With the PGA Tour all in on the PIF deal and the PGA of America riding shotgun, is there any scenario under which Brooks is not on the team?  I certainly can't see one.

The TC panel weighs in with some comical results:

4. U.S. Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson will finalize his team with six captain’s picks on Tuesday, meaning the Tour Championship was a handful of players’ final audition. Keegan Bradley finished 11th in the standings yet still was often talked about as a player who might be left off. So is Sam Burns, who won the WGC-Match Play this season and finished 12th in the standings. Both finished T9 in Atlanta this week. How much stock will Johnson put in Tour Championship performances?

Barath: Overall, the Tour Championship is likely only going to play a very small factor in Johnson’s picks, and it’s going to come down to stats and recent form.

Keegan has proven to be a strong matchplay golfer, and I think his play this season and finish at East Lake warrants a pick for the Ryder Cup team.

Colgan: I think there’s some stock to be placed in recent form, but the biggest advantage will come when ZJ is comparing these two to, say, Justin Thomas, who spent this weekend watching alone from home. When the margins are so thin, these are the sorts of things that can help make up a captain’s mind.

Berhow: Even though Keegan didn’t play as well on Sunday his 54 holes before that obviously helped his chances. If either of them would have finished 20th or worse in a field of 30, it would have made it easy for ZJ. Now? Not so much.

We'll know that as soon as we see the picks.... Speaking of which....

5. Let’s keep this simple: Who should be the six picks come Tuesday? And who will be the last man out?

Barath: Picks: Brooks Koepka, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth, Cam Young.

My last man out is going to sound a little far-fetched but it has to be Russell Henley. The man is consistent as you get (without winning that often) and on a tight golf course when you need to hit fairways and greens — especially in alternate-shot he would be my pick.

Colgan: Koepka, Spieth, Bradley, Morikawa, Fowler and … Denny McCarthy. Yeah – I know that last one is a bit of a dark horse, but the U.S. has needed a player of his putting and recovery skills on European soil for 20 years. Give Denny a shot to prove he belongs!

Berhow: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler, which means Fowler (who finished 13th in the standings), would leapfrog Burns, who was 12th. That puts Burns as the odd man out, but I don’t think there’s a chance Fowler is left off and I think Keegan really helped himself at the Tour Championship. You could argue Cam Young didn’t even make it to East Lake, but finishing 9th in the standings like he did, I think that was enough already. (As for JT, well, see below.)

As you can see, there's a follow-up that we'll excerpt before opining:

6. Two popular American players sit outside of the top 12: Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas. If you can only take one, whom are you selecting?

Barath: I’m taking Rickie. Other players all like him, and unlike JT, his putting stats are good.

Colgan: Fowler and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Ultimately, JT is the better player, but Rickie has played the better golf over the last 12 months. A pick for JT would be a character pick all the way, and I tend to lean in the direction of those who have earned it with their play.

Berhow: Fowler. I had more confidence that Thomas would be on this team a couple of weeks ago, but this is not a great time of year to be absent. While JT has been out of sight and out of mind, others have made their case and, in my mind, should be rewarded. Thomas has been great in these events, but his play this summer has not been.

When I hinted that they were beclowning themselves,  I had Colgan's Denny McCarthy pick foremost in mind.  I think your humble blogger has a better chance of being selected by Zach than Denny, who I frankly doubt was even measured for uniforms.... yes, the man can putt, but any analysis of his overall performance can only yield one uncomfortable truth, that he must be really bad at the other parts of the game.

But it's quite weird to ask about the JT-Rickie binary choice, when I think Rickie is likely to be on the team already. As noted last week, while Cam Young is obviously a young talent worth watching, I would not take him to Rome.  Not only has he not played well in some time, but his skill set seems off for the task, specifically horrible putting and driving accuracy stats.  Last week, it seemed to me like these guys would get a call:

Koepka

Morikawa

Spieth

Glover

Fowler

Interestingly, despite being asked about the effect of East Lake on Zach's picks, Keegan and Sam Burns got a call-out, but no mention of Lucas Glover.  If we're considering recent form, it's hard to pick an American who's shown more recent form than Lucas.  That said, he had a middle-of-the-pack week at East Lake, so he might be the odd man out.

It felt last week like the final agonizing decision for Zach would be between Keegan and JT, though in the here and now it might be easy to see leaving Glover home and taking them both.  Let me just circle back to Eamon who makes a point that I've noted as well:

Points determine the first six. The final six make it on metrics we don’t know — the intangibles most valued by Johnson, whether statistical (skill sets that are complementary for foursomes, strengths that balance shortcomings elsewhere), populist (personalities that fit, performances on prior teams), or personal (advocacy by influential voices, antipathy toward LIV). All or none of those might matter to Johnson, but it’s impossible to deny that the potential selection of Koepka is freighted with politics.

Personal advocacy?  Hmmm, who could Eamon be thinking of?

We've seen two coups in the professional game in recent years, first Phil's hostile takeover of  the U.S. Ryder Cup efforts and the far more significant coup of the elite players, which recently culminated with Tiger's elevation to the Tour's Advisory Board.  

It's completely opaque, so no use sorting through whether Zach is an actual independent decision maker, or whether he's taking "guidance" from above.  The cynic in me assumes that he's been instructed to put Koepka on the squad, as the context seems to demand it (as well as his play).  Less clear is the result when Tiger whispers in Zach's ear that JT has been playing lights out at Medalist and is really good in the team room....  

Now it's just wait and see....

Have a great week.

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Friday, August 25, 2023

Late-Week Lamentations - SweatEx Cup Edition

Got a few bits for you, then we'll let you start your weekend.....

East Lake Fireworks - I saw a little of the early coverage, but didn't see those kind of scores out there:

On a sweltering hot day, Adam Schenk torched East Lake Golf Club in his Tour Championship debut to the tune of 7-under 63. Yet he still got beat by two strokes in his pairing with fellow competitor Collin Morikawa.

“It sounds bad to say, but I’ve never won out here, so I guess I get kind of used to losing a little bit,” Schenk said. “But I played great, he just played a little better.”

If it makes Schenk feel any better, the 26-year old Morikawa posted his career-low on the PGA Tour, a sizzling 9-under 61 that was as hot as the temperature. Morikawa, who entered the week at No. 24 in the FedEx Cup, began the tournament at 1 under and 9 strokes behind FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler in the staggered start. By the time the day was over he was in the thick of the trophy hunt, tied with Keegan Bradley, who shot 63, and Viktor Hovland (68) for the lead at 10 under.

Scheffler (71) led by as many as five strokes on the front nine but hit it in the water and made a triple bogey at 15 to squander his lead. At the conclusion of the Tour Championship, the player with the lowest stroke total over 72 holes when combined with FedEx Cup Starting Strokes, will be crowned the FedEx Cup champion.:

Of course, the gods of style books are angry, as you'll note the writer has to tell us both what the guy shots and where that leaves him on the leaderboard, whish is usually the same thing after the first round.  Despite Scheffler's cock-up, he's only one shot off the pace.  That's the good news.... the bad news is that they're still going to make him putt for the next three days, so perhaps avert your gaze...

This header of course caught my eye:

Five years into the Tour Championship’s staggered start, there’s still one obvious flaw

Only one?  I guess you haven't watched it recently....

In 2019, the PGA Tour introduced a handicapping system to structure the leaderboard for the 30
players who qualified for the FedEx Cup finale at East Lake. A quick reminder, FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler will start Thursday’s first round at 10 under par, with Viktor Hovland at eight under and Rory McIlroy at seven under. The scores then regress down to where the final five in the standings start at even par.

“I don't think it's the best, but it is the easiest to understand,” said Jon Rahm, who’ll start at six under par.

So, where's the problem?

There’s one problem with the format though—the Official World Golf Ranking don’t recognize the Tour Championship winner if he doesn’t shoot the lowest 72-hole score.

Really?  You mean if the winner of the Tour Championship was in a police line-up, that the folks at the OWGR wouldn't be able to pick him out?  Because that's what you wrote, such are journalistic standards these days.

What the idiot meant to say is that OWGR people have taken the radical view that points should be awarded for actual play, so they do so for this event based upon what the guys actually shoot.  Based upon this sentence, the reader would be within his rights to assume that the winner might get stiffed on any OWGR points.  The fault, of course, being with the clown car format, not the OWGR, except for the fact that they shouldn't be awarding points for any events with a 30-player field.

It's Not The Heat - I was gonna let this one go, but no one else is....  First, a confession, that I stole my header from this tweet:

Then Lucas Glover teed off and the Golf Channel announcers indicated that they had high expectations for Lucas this week.  Oh, not his hot putter or first-rate ball striking, but rather harkening back to Memphis:

Are you familiar with the term "Swamp ass"?  I can't give you a language of origin, but I can show you its usage:

Isn't this why we have Golf Twitter?   What exactly is SA?

What Is Swamp Ass? Swamp ass (or swampass), Dagobah diaper, or pants puddles is when moisture and sweat builds up between your cheeks and embarrassingly appears through your clothing. This build up of sweat and moisture is the perfect environment for bacteria to live in, causing an itchy, irritated and smelly mess.

Not only did this generate a plea for mercy from Paige Spirinac, but we have a nominee for the Swamp Ass GOAT:


That's Robert Garrigus from, irony alert, the FedEx St. Jude Classic in Memphis, though this was in June 2010.   

For years I had good fun at the expense of the PGA of America, who took their August event to Shoal Creek, Valhalla, Tulsa, Atlanta Athletic Club and Kiawah, forcing America to watch Tim Herron in sweat-soaked golf shirts.  Now August is devoted to the FedEx Cup and, of the three events, they hold two of them in Memphis and Atlanta.  Must be global warming, eh?

Warning Shots - I'm late to this story, but you may have caught this from Chicago last week:

Introducing real-time betting to the PGA Tour was always going to be a gamble, pardon the pun. Last Saturday at the BMW Championship outside Chicago, a fan at Olympia Fields berated Chris Kirk on the 17th green and moments later yelled “pull it” during playing partner Max Homa’s putting stroke. Homa later told reporters a fan said they bet $3 on him to make his putt, and that he called the fan “a clown” as he walked off the green. 

Jon Rahm says this is nothing new:

“I feel like we hear it every single round,” the Masters champion said Tuesday at the Tour Championship. “It's very present. In golf, spectators are very close, and even if they're not directly talking to you, they're close enough to where if they say to their buddy, ‘I bet you 10 bucks he's going to miss it,’ you hear it. Luckily golf fans are pretty good for the most part and you're hearing the positive, ‘I’ve got 20 bucks you make birdie here.’”

But, Jon, I'm pretty sure no one in Ponte Vedra Beach cares:

Rahm said a plan for policing it needed to happen sooner rather than later.

“In a game like this where you're allowed to have your favorites, but it's not a team aspect, it's not a home team against a visiting team, I think the tour maybe should look into it because you don't want it to get out of hand, right?” he said. “It's very, very easy in golf if you want to affect somebody. You're so close, you can yell at the wrong time, and it's very easy for that to happen.

“I think they [PGA Tour] could look into it, but at the same time, it would be extremely difficult for the tour to control 50,000 people scattered around the golf course. It's a complicated subject. You don't want it to get out of control, but you also want to have the fans to have the experience they want to have.”

Just yesterday we had Jay Monahan talking about growing his data business.  Can anyone tell me who the customers for such data are?  Yup, at every turn, the Tour will maximize revenue, regardless of the potential affect on the product.  So, Jon, the Tour is going to do that which it does best, nothing but endorse checks.

Jon might want to get with the Live Under Par™ program...

Shall we cover those cups a little... Beginning with the biggie.

When In Rome - There's no real news here, just a holding pattern until Tuesday in Frisco.  Brooks Koepka has fallen to seventh in the points ranking, though I haven't found anyone in the wild that thinks he won't be selected.  Interestingly, though, two guys are making an argument against, first Brandel Chamblee:

“The reasons for him to be on the team are pretty obvious, right?” he told analyst Brad Faxon
during Sunday’s Live From show following Koepka’s PGA win. “He’d make the team better. He’d make the Ryder Cup more compelling. But the reasons for him not to be on the team I think are pretty obvious, too. Don’t you think it would be a bit of a slap in the face to the players that didn’t go, that didn’t take the money and go to LIV, that somebody who took the money could now have their cake and eat it too? And in playing on the Ryder Cup team, would it not in some way elevate LIV, make it more legitimate?”

“Koepka being on the Ryder Cup is a referendum on LIV,” he said. “It will be nothing else. It will be non-stop tweets from bots and everyone that supports LIV about how great this is for LIV, more than about being about the Ryder Cup, more than the philanthropic aspect of the PGA Tour or the PGA of America.”

More legitimate than Jay Monahan has made it?  Kind of fighting a war that's already been lost, no?

Koepka and Chamblee have history, which you can revisit at the link, though I'm not sure that's what at issue here.  It's more Brandel making a point that through June 5th would have us all cheering, but he doesn't seem to have accepted the tectonic shift that occurred the next day.

Here's a better one, a purported letter from Captain Zach Johnson:

So when I looked at Brooks and considered a place for him on this team, the same thoughts washed over me. He turned his back on American golf and the leading American golf institution, the PGA Tour. He turned his back on Hogan and Arnold and Big Jack. The Ryder Cup is all about

American golf, the PGA of America, the PGA Tour. LIV Golf isn’t a sports institution. It’s an ATM for a small group of coddled golfers. It doesn’t stand for anything, except entertainment. I don’t think of golf as entertainment. I don’t think of the Ryder Cup as entertainment. We’re not wearing costumes. We’re wearing team uniforms. This is golf’s ultimate team competition.

I see this as a chance for me to make a statement about my own values. I don’t believe in blind loyalty. I do believe in loyalty to the institutions that have helped make you and have earned your loyalty. I believe playing on a Ryder Cup team is a reward. I believe that every member of the team has to be able to say that he is putting the team’s needs ahead of his own. That’s not easy for any professional golfer to do, but the starting point of our U.S. team is that we represent American golf. We represent the PGA Tour. We represent the PGA of America. That is our core value. Brooks ran for the money. That is not a value I can relate to.

This letter is a Mike Bamberger fever dream, but it comes across to this observer as empty virtue-signaling.  While both Brandel and Mike have been consistent voices against LIV and Saudi Arabia, that battle is mostly lost.

What I find bizarre in this is that both frame their argument as a defense of our golfing institutions, the PGA Tour and PGA of America, ignoring that its those very institutions that betrayed us.  Mike is putting his trust in Zach Johnson, who is a product of and beholden to the very organization that is trying to sell out its birthright.  And yet, they both seem to exhibit this naïve trust that elements with these organizations will defend themselves, ignoring how deep the rot has progressed.

Perhaps the most off-key portion of Mike's putative letter is this note above it:

The draft begins with a note.

J.—Is this too much? Not enough? Lemme know. Gonna run it by T, too.—Z.

(J is, presumably, Julius Mason, the top spokesperson for the PGA of America. Or, it could be Jay Monahan, the commissioner of the PGA Tour. If you don’t know who T is, we can’t help you.)

Mike is still bitterly clinging to his belief that Tiger, who he recently called a Buy-American guy, would support keeping Brooksie off the team.  The reality is more depressing, that Tiger has stepped up to ensure that the top players get theirs, not to queer the deal.

Those two, alas, don't have a monopoly on revisionist history:

Poor baby!  

Again like so many others, Casey feels that the Ryder Cup has been damaged by what has gone on the last 18 months.

“That was never anyone’s intent,” he says. “But it has to be fixed. (DP World Tour chief executive) Keith Pelley has admitted that. He’s had conversations with people I know and he has admitted that. They have a captain issue in the future. I love that Luke is captain. I know him well and he has my respect. I want him to be a great captain, which he will be win, lose or draw.

“The Ryder Cup is so valuable in terms of what it gives to golf in Europe, not just monetarily. We don’t want that to be damaged any more than it has been already. I don’t watch a lot of golf outside of the majors. But I will certainly watch the Ryder Cup. And I might just have a piece of Euro team clothing on under my top. I won’t have the commentary on though,” he said with a laugh.

Let me see if I follow, Paul.  You cashed a large check from an entity that's business model was to destroy the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, but now you have a sad on?  The article goes on and Casey describes his personal reasons for jumping to LIV, so he's just another a******e who puts his own needs above those of his tours and his mates, but shouldn't be held responsible because...reasons.

I used to like Casey because I though he was one of the few that understood what a lucky bastard he is.  he might have no regrets, though he's caused me to regret misjudging him.

The Auld Grey Toon - We had the U.S. team a few days ago, here is your GB&I roster, not that any of us actually know these young men:

James ASHFIELD – Wales, Delamere Forest, 22 – WAGR #71
Jack BIGHAM – England, Harpenden, 19 – WAGR #88
Barclay BROWN – England, Hallamshire, 22 – WAGR #25
John GOUGH – England, The Berkshire, 24 – WAGR #11
Connor GRAHAM – Scotland, Blairgowrie, 16 – WAGR #184
Alex MAGUIRE – Ireland, Laytown & Bettystown, 22 – WAGR #149
Matthew MCCLEAN – Ireland, Malone, 30 – WAGR #52
Liam NOLAN – Ireland, Galway, 23 – WAGR #143
Mark POWER – Ireland, Kilkenny, 23 – WAGR #94
Calum SCOTT – Scotland, Nairn, 20 – WAGR #35

While Ryder Cup selections are reasonably transparent, both side in the Walker Cup seem to prefer those smoke-filled rooms.  A few years back Sam Burns waited to turn pro so he could play in the event, only to be inexplicably spurned by the USGA.  This time the controversy is across the pond:

Huggan can hold a grudge: 

Yeah, that was tough one....

The appeal here is the venue.  The young me are plenty talented, but we have a unique opportunity to see match play on the most interesting golf course on the planet.  And kudos to the USGA and R&A for choosing venues of such interest, the next installment being at Cypress Point.

Club de Golf Finca Cortesin - That's in Spain, gang, where they will hold the Solheim Cup in three weeks.  The ladies got a little jammed up with the Ryder Cup going back to odd years after the pandemic, and they will actually hold a Solheim Cup in 2024 to avoid competing with the Ryder Cup, an obvious losing proposition.

The Solheim Cup is actually good fun, far more interesting than the Presidents Cup, for the simple reason that there's actual bad blood between the teams.  That frisson makes it a good watch, though it is of course kind of a silly event, pitting the U.S. against Europe when either side would get crushed by a South Korean team.

The U.S. team currently looks like this under their bifurcated qualification process:


Captain Stacey Lewis gets three picks after this week's LPGA event in Canada, but everyone listed above will likely be in Spain.  There's a long dissertation on the rugby scrum to fill out the roster here. 

I can't find a simple list to copy-and-paste, but the European team, including their captain's picks, can be found here.

Suzann Pettersen, the European captain, has played a starring role in the incidents which have led to the bad blood between the teams, so that could be interesting.....  Still not sure she understands what she did wrong in the most famous of those incidents, but we'll save that history lesson for closer to the event.

Hasve a great weekend and I'll catch you on Monday.

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Thursday, August 24, 2023

Thursday Themes - Positive Outcome Edition

A late arrival to the keyboard, but we'll try to power through and catch up on the Tour/LIV stuff.  Perhaps we'll close some of those open browser tabs tomorrow.

I'd like to chip in and buy Jay a copy of Roget's Thesaurus, as he's desperately in need of some synonyms....as Brendan Porath notes:


Jay Monahan achieved a positive outcome in his annual state of the tour address at east lake on Tuesday by not stepping in it. it was not a shining performance, and compared to the now-infamous
press conference when he challenged liv by announcing the tour’s designated events plan, it felt equivocating, even chastened. we rarely hear from Monahan in a setting where he has to face questions outside the friendly confines of CNBC, and that’s for a reason. it’s not his strong suit. but at such a contentious and critical time, getting out of there without making much news counts as a positive outcome.

That was the phrase of the day, pounced on by close listeners: positive outcome. in the middle of a 19-minute opening monologue on a host of issues, he concluded on the status of the framework agreement — the worth and substance of which seems to decrease by the day — by saying, “I am confident that we will reach an agreement that achieves a positive outcome for the PGA tour and our fans. i see it and I'm certain of it.” given that this was in the prepared remarks, it seemed to be deliberate framing, and he went back to it during the more off-the-cuff exchanges of the Q&A portion with the press.

At least we haven't heard anyone use "fealty" in quite some time....But the P-word was just a we bit over-used:

“And at this point, I think players are focused on their play and they know, you know, as we move forward, and certainly as we move towards the end of the year, there's a responsibility, an expectation, from them towards me and the team that, you know, we're going to be in a position to communicate a positive outcome for the PGA Tour.”

“We're confident that we're going to reach a positive outcome for the PGA Tour…”

“And I feel inspired and ready to go from the position we're in, ultimately, to generate a really positive outcome for the PGA Tour, and I came back ready to do that, alongside my peers and our players.”

So, what does said positive outcome look like:

“What is a positive outcome? It’s what I said earlier,” Monahan said, sidestepping the direct question in a manner so impressive it ought to have brought a tear to the eye of the PR flaks in attendance.

And what, exactly, had Monahan said about 10 questions earlier about a “positive outcome” for the PGA Tour? Well, almost nothing.

“Our commitment [is] to moving from the divisive nature of the relationship we had to a productive one, for us to be able to make a fundamental transition to our business with the formation of NewCo, to have an investable entity for PIF to believe able to invest in that previously didn’t exist, for the PGA Tour to be in control of the future of men’s professional golf and for us to be partners.”

He does add a smidgeon more, throwing Golf Twitter a bone:

But then, as if propelled by some divine force, Monahan continued his answer — revealing for the first time a series of small but highly notable details about the shape of the agreement with the PIF.

“For fans, [a positive outcome is] for us to be able to use the capital to be able to invest back in our product,” Monahan said. “You know, to do things like further reduce commercial inventory in our broadcast, to further invest in our data businesses, to further invest in our media business, to potentially invest in entities and companies that we think are going to help us grow and diversify our fan base and the game.”

Wait, hold on a sec... what's wrong with your existing fan base?  I totally get where we need to sell out to these guys so you can invest in your data business....

Eamon Lynch has a characteristically contrary take:

The health stuff seems to this cynical observer quite the red herring, as nothing quite adds up.  This from Eamon helps little:

The only area in which Monahan provided clarity was his health. “I have never felt better mentally and physically than I feel right now. And obviously, I had to take some steps to go from where I was to this position. But I’m a work in progress,” he said. “So I’m working on the things that I’ve learned that are going to help me in my life and help me in this role. That’s how I feel, but more importantly my doctors, my wife, and girls, ultimately, that’s how they feel about how I’m doing. They are my arbiters. I feel as strong as I’ve felt in a long, long time.”

Perhaps the most shocking thing here is Eamon's credulity, because Jay was so disabled that Tour took the extraordinary step of announcing a transfer of authority.  Yet that is all "solved" in a month, and his wife and girls are happy to send him straight back into the cauldron?  I'm sorry, I was born in the morning, but not this morning....

But I was most stuck by the dueling banjos on the subject of viability, first back to Porath:

Overall, I thought Monahan’s lengthy monologue made a strong case for the health of the PGA Tour. That’s the point of a scripted opening, of course, but amidst the chaos of the past year, the Tour has a story to tell beyond the rake-stepping of recent months. Some of the numbers were framed with amusing benevolence, but the Tour has objectively progressed and grown under his watch. Now, did it proactively prepare and react to the mammoth threat it faced while also doing all this other stuff? That’s a rougher story. The Tour seemed to be humming along relatively healthy, and didn’t NEED the Saudi money, but they DID need them go away.

 If you say so, but Eamon has a different take ( along with a bonus use of that P-word):

Even when Monahan touted figures highlighting the robustness of the PGA Tour’s business — viewership, engagement, revenue, demographics — it felt like a perfunctory concession to metrics that only matter in a rational business environment, a conventional standard by which he is no longer judged. His shareholders in the locker room primarily have one yardstick (money) and one concern (how they’ll get more of it).

Which explains why the commissioner was at pains Tuesday to remind us for whom he works. Monahan never could muster the imperious swagger of his predecessors, but what little he had was extinguished by the recent revolt in which players demanded more say in governance. I asked if he saw that move by players as an indictment of how the organization has been managed.

“I did not,” he replied. “I look at this as not an indictment, but a very positive message… We’ve listened, we’ve responded, and now we have the right people, the right process in place for us to be able to move forward and determine that future. But I look at it as a positive and something that I and we embrace.”

They're giving me whiplash..... The whole reason the deal had to be struck was that their terrific peni will not toil in the fields for the amount of money that's generated from all of Jay's metrics.... So, I'm reliably informed that it's all positive, but simultaneously that none of it is sustainable.

So, you might be in robust health, Jay, but you're a carrier of depression....

One of the things I correctly called in the aftermath of that D-Day was how quickly the good guys would accommodate themselves to their new reality. specifically citing Rory.  The best case description of Rory's roll in all this is that he functioned as an "Useful idiot", and I'll spare you the worst case....

But now all is good in the world:

Tiger Woods’ presence on tour’s policy board ‘has been felt already,’ according to Rory McIlroy

His mere presence?  care to get a little more granular, Rors?

“Tiger being on the board, I think it's meaningful that he's on it, that he's engaged,” McIlroy said.
“He's certainly been spending more time on it than I have. He's been talking to some people. He's been talking to a lot of people. He's really engaged in just trying to get the best outcome for the players on the PGA Tour. I think his difference has been felt already. His presence on there will only continue to grow as we head towards that December 31st deadline.”

That presence is seen as striking a balance between the tour potentially accepting enormous invest from the PIF—which has invested over $2 billion into LIV as well as other sports such as its purchase of English soccer team Newcastle F.C.—and maintaining the integrity of a U.S. circuit Woods helped build. Before Woods was appointed, 41 tour players, including McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, sent a letter to commissioner Jay endorsing Woods as a sixth player representative on the board.

So, it's positive?   But has anyone asked what Tiger was put on that policy board to, yanno, do? 

He's there to ensure that Rory gets paid (Cantlay and all the others, as well).  It cements the coup by the elite players, as well as that important point made by Eamon Lynch.  It was never about the source of the money, it was always about where that money would end up.

And perhaps now would be a good time to remind folks of who will be sitting next to Tiger at these meetings:

As part of the agreement, a new company would be formed called PGA Tour Enterprises. PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan—who would get a seat on the PGA Tour Policy Board alongside Tiger Woods—would be the chairman of the for-profit LLC, with Monahan as CEO.

And while this might get a tad redundant, I'm just fascinated by the gaslighting:

“I would say that we operate in good faith and I see that on both sides. And that framework agreement, which is an agreement to reach an agreement, put us in a position to reach an agreement. Those safeguards that are in place and our commitment to moving from the divisive nature of the relationship we had to a productive one, for us to be able to make a fundamental transition to our business with the formation of NewCo [PGA Tour Enterprises], to have an investable entity for PIF to believe able to invest in that previously didn’t exist, for the PGA Tour to be in control of the future of men’s professional golf and for us to be partners, if we were going to end the litigation, we would have just announced that we were ending the litigation.”

Good faith?  From the Saudis?  Good thing I didn't have liquids in my mouth.... But note, the Saudi billions are to go into NewCo, which is a for-profit entity, so wink-wink, they must be investing for the returns, though there isn't a whiff of what those investments and associated returns might be.   But, as a wise man once allegedly said, follow the money:

He said that would allow the PGA Tour “to use the capital to be able to invest back in our product, to do things like further reduce commercial inventory in our broadcast, to further invest in our data businesses, to further invest in our media business, to potentially invest in entities and companies that we think are going to help us grow and diversify our fan base and the game.

Somehow the money will go from NewCo into the Tour's not-for-profit entity (that's where those TV contracts are), without any demands from the Saudis.....  In perpetuity...... See why Rory is smiling

I need to go take a shower, but will see y'all tomorrow.

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Tuesday Tidbits - U.S. Ryder Cup Preview Edition

We have half a team assembled, shall we see how we feel about that? Here's your six automatic qualifiers:

1. Scottie Scheffler earned roughly a billion Ryder Cup points (literally more than twice as many as No. 2 on this list) while playing golf at an outrageously high level all season. The World No. 1
seemed destined for victory at the BMW for parts of Sunday but wound up T2, which is actually sort of a middling finish by his standards. Scheffler is clearly hitting it better than anyone else in the world. How much better? He led the field in strokes gained off the tee and approaching the green at Olympia Fields. That’s absurd. But he remains mired in some putting woes, too; he was 38th in the 49-player BMW field on the greens, continuing a trend. Still, there’s no doubt he’s the U.S. Team’s best hitter. Welcome to the team, Scottie.

2. Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open, and if you win a major championship the year of the Ryder Cup you’re very likely going to be on the team. (More on that in a moment.) But Clark did more than just win that once; he won the elevated Wells Fargo, too, and he’s missed just one cut in all of 2023. He hasn’t recaptured his form from LACC just yet — Sunday’s T19 was his best result since then — but he’s a talented debutant with big plans ahead.

3. Brian Harman had an appropriately gritty week at the BMW; this was the perfect way to welcome him onto his first Ryder Cup team. He drove it poorly and hit his irons okay but finished in the top five in strokes gained both chipping and putting, stringing together one sneaky par save after another en route to a T5 finish. That’s encouraging continuity for the Open champ, who now has five top-12 finishes in his last six starts and never seems to be out of a hole. His qualification also marks a shocking turnaround for a guy who admitted he felt lost in the months before that Open win. Now he’s found.

4. Patrick Cantlay hasn’t won since last year’s BMW Championship but he’s established himself as one of the Tour’s most consistent performers; he has nine top-10s and four podium finishes this season. He’s also No. 4 in the world, with a big enough gap over No. 5 that Hovland’s win couldn’t catch him. And he’s half of the U.S. team’s most reliable duo…

5. Max Homa was the 36-hole leader at the BMW and then did a little bit of everything on the weekend; a triple-bogey 7 on No. 7 on Saturday ejected him from the lead but he kept hanging around en route to a T5 finish. That was his fourth top 12 in his most recent four starts, a reassuring bounceback after missing back-to-back cuts at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship. Homa should be a central figure on this team, particularly after going undefeated as a Presidents Cup rookie last fall.

6. Xander Schauffele is the other half of that Cantlay squad and earned the final qualifying place on the U.S. team thanks to a T8 finish at the BMW. Schauffele picked up a bunch of trophies in 2022 and has done everything but win in 2023; he hasn’t missed a cut since the 2022 Masters (!) and has 10 top-10s this year. Fascinating sidenote: since that Masters MC Schauffele has played seven majors and hasn’t finished worse than T18 nor better than T10. He’ll bring that drumbeat reliability to Rome.

This isn't your first rodeo, so you know how things are supposed to play out, as the Evil Empire is supposed to send a team with dominating elite talent, guys the Euros would like to steer clear of.... Does anyone see that in that half-dozen?  

How about a segue?  Alan Shipnuck has displaced Shackelford as our most cited writer, due to his ubiquitous mailbag feature, but also because he's a bit of a controversy whore.  Firing up the Wayback Machine, before there was Phil and Billy there was a certain column in advance of the 2018 event in Paris, which lead with this startling declaration:

The Ryder Cup is dead — you just don’t know it yet.

One of the greatest events in sport is on the verge of irrelevancy. The young, talented, hungry golfers from the United States, benefiting from the cohesive leadership of the Task Force era, are going to roll to victory in 2018 in Paris. This will be the first American win on European soil in a quarter century and, coming on the heels of an overpowering U.S. win in ’16, will set the stage for a decade-plus of blowouts, sapping the intrigue out of the Ryder Cup. It’s going to get so lopsided that you can expect future Ryder Cups to have all the dramatic tension of…gasp!…the Presidents Cup.

So, how did that prediction play out in 2018?  Well, that Task Force "cohesively" selected Jim Furyk as captain, presumably because Hal Sutton was unavailable, though it turns out that the supply of village idiots is more than adequate for our requirements.  And, actually, that was quite the fun post-event press conference, as the winning team saluted Shipnuck from the podium.  Alan took it well, while trying to remind us it was a long-term projection, though his words about 2018 seem fairly specific.

Alan was quite certainly over-interpreting that 2016 rout at Hazeltine, one that was even more lopsided at Whisling Straits, so the U.S. seems to show up for its home games.  But with only two installments in the books, shall we take a peak at what Alan thought would be the backbone of that U.S. roster?

Meanwhile, just look at the big steps taken by the U.S. players since the last Ryder: Jordan Spieth, 24, won another major and reasserted himself as golf’s alpha male; Dustin Johnson, 33, spent almost all of 2017 at number one; Brooks Koepka, 27, won the U.S. Open. You know who has never even played in a Ryder Cup? Justin Thomas, 24, merely the reigning player of the year. Throw in Rickie Fowler, 28, and Patrick Reed, 27, and you have a rock-star core for the next decade or more — not to mention the fact that these guys will be augmented by wily vets (Phil! Kuch! Zach! Bubba! Sneds! Duf!) and some spicy young comers (Daniel Berger, Kevin Kisner).

I'll give you a minute to stop laughing.....Actually, don't stop laughing, because this was the rousing coda to that famous column:

I suppose that when all of the above comes true I’ll be celebrated as some sort of Nostradamus in knickers, but believe me, I take no pleasure in writing this column. The Ryder Cup, as we know it, was great fun. I’m going to miss it.

It's actually quite amazing how this has played out, because were he actually trying to get things completely wrong, he couldn't have done better than he did.  Look at that list of wily vets and "spicy" comers, not one of which still has a Tour card.  Only one will be in Rome, and he won't bother to use Ship Sticks for his trip....

But the "backbone" is just epic.... OK, he didn't see the LIV thing coming, But Rickie, JT and Reed have faded into competitive obscurity on their own merits, but the life cycle is so accelerated that we're watching two of those guys try to claw their way back to relevance.....

Color me unconvinced by that top six.  Scheffler is quite the conundrum, a ball-striking machine for sure, with just this one nagging weakness.  here's a screen shot of his SG stats:


It's not like putting is a big factor at Ryder Cups....

This guy has the same data in a more interesting graphic:

What stays with this observer from 2018 is Furyk putting Phil and Reed out in foursomes, though I've been reliably advise by Alan Shipnuck that it was done cohesively, so remind me how that turned out.  Does Zach understand that those stats argue for Scheffler to play alternate shot?  We'll know soon enough...

The guy I like most on that list is Harman, because he can putt and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder.  But has anyone broken it to Patrick and the X-Man that they don't get paid that week?  Because that seems to be pretty much all that concerns them these days.... 

Who's next?  Dylan Dethier thinks these guys are locks:

7. Brooks Koepka finished T2 at the Masters. He won the PGA Championship. He only played four events that had qualifying points for the Ryder Cup and he still came damn close to qualifying just through those. Sure, it’s juicy that he got bumped from the final qualifying spot. Sure, Phil Mickelson won the PGA in 2021 and didn’t make the team. And no, Koepka hasn’t played particularly well the last few LIV events. But we saw just how good this guy still is when the lights are brightest, and they’ll be plenty bright in Rome. The only way I see him not in Rome is if he’s got new-parent duties in Florida.

8. Jordan Spieth barely squeaked through to this week’s Tour Championship at No. 29 in the FedEx Cup, but he’ll be safely on the U.S. squad that travels to Rome. No, he hasn’t won this year, but the first half of his season was a remarkable display of ball-striking and last week’s T6 showed he has enough form to find that Spieth magic in the next month. Easy pick.

13. Rickie Fowler isn’t in the top 12 on points, but he put together a terrific summer that all but guarantees his inclusion. He top-20’d his way through the Tour schedule before ending his winless drought at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. His four events since then have been less spectacular but it’ll be good to see Fowler earn his way back into the stars and stripes.

Meh!  It's not that I disagree with Dylan that these guys are going to Rome, it's just that those last two I have trouble calling locks.  Spieth in particular is quite the hot mess, with admittedly much improved ball-striking (at least earlier in the year), but a putter that's hard to trust.

Next we have a "probable":

10. Collin Morikawa has played with Max Homa both at the Presidents Cup and at the Zurich Classic, so he’d slot into a natural spot there. But even though he hasn’t contended much in recent months, Morikawa may be playing better than you might think; strokes gained numbers suggest he’s still performing at a top-10 level even as his world ranking slides outside the top 20. A T2 at the Rocket Mortgage was encouraging, as was a T13 last week in Memphis. It seems like he’ll be in Rome.

He probably will be, but a Top-ten performer who doesn't contend seems like a low bar, no?

And one more as well in that category:

9. Cameron Young was declared as “going to Rome” by assistant captain Fred Couples a few weeks ago, so maybe it’s silly to have him in questionable territory at all. Young is among the best young Americans and figures to be a part of this team’s future, which incentivizes leadership to make him part of its present, too. The good news is he finished T8 at the Open. The less-good-news is he’s had an uneven summer, with three missed cuts and just two top-20s since the Masters until a T15 at this week’s BMW. He won’t be in East Lake, leaving him in a slightly vulnerable spot as others make their case…

Uneven?  Here's Cam's stat line:


There aren't too many guys out there that putt it worse than Scottie Scheffler, but let's see how many of those guys we can get on our team.  And then, when they can't make anything in Rome, let's pretend to be surprised....

The case for Cam seems to come down to:

  1. He's, well, young, ;
  2. Fred shot his mouth off.
I see what Shipnuck meant about that cohesive task force.... So, you'll be wondering what the options are, no?

15. Justin Thomas seems like the guy most likely to end up with this final spot if nobody seizes it from him at East Lake. Why? Because composing a Ryder Cup roster is a strange combination of deciding who’s the most deserving, leaning on players’ past team performances and projecting forward to who will show the best form in team match-play competition a month-plus from now. Thomas isn’t “deserving” in the sense that he just hasn’t been all that good this year and missed the FedEx Cup playoffs. But he’s also been the heart and soul of recent U.S. teams and has the record to back that up. When the likes of Sergio Garcia or Ian Poulter were in an equivalent position on past European teams, they were be picked without question. Because Thomas is in a similar role as emotional leader for this U.S. Team, he may get the nod, too. But there are other deserving players…

16. Lucas Glover has the hot hand; he won at Wyndham and then won again at the playoff opener in Memphis. A new long putter has given him new life and he finished top six in three consecutive lower-tier Tour events before the back-to-back wins. The argument against Glover is that he was in the wilderness just a couple months ago; he didn’t even qualify for a major championship this year. Another top finish at the Tour Championship, though, would make it tough for Zach Johnson not to choose him.

12. Sam Burns would like you to remember that he won this year’s Match Play in Austin. He would also like you to remember that the Ryder Cup … is match play! He’s No. 12 on the points list, which is automatically in the conversation. He’s close with Scottie Scheffler, and although the two didn’t play particularly well together at Quail Hollow last fall there’s no doubt the World No. 1 would like his buddy there. Burns has been in reasonable form all summer, he finished T15 at the BMW and would be a perfectly acceptable selection.

11. Keegan Bradley is the top-ranked guy who appears to be on the outside looking in. Yeah, he won the Travelers. And yeah, he thinks about the Ryder Cup like, all day every day. That’s what’ll make it that much more heartbreaking if he’s Unlucky No. 13. Bradley’s win at TPC River Highlands was among the moments of the year for the Tour, but he doesn’t have another top 20 since March. He might need to win the Tour Championship — or come close — to reassert himself here.

Where's the "None of the above" box?  The funniest way I can handle this is to say that Zach might need to take Lucas Glover just to have another guy who can putt on the squad?  I know, you won't stop laughing at that until I finish Thursday's post.... And, yet, it might actually be the case.

The Tour Confidential panel had some thoughts, so might as well throw those in:

2. Now that the BMW is complete, the field for the season-ending Tour Championship is set. We also now know the six auto-qualifiers for the U.S. Ryder Cup team in Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Max Homa and Xander Schauffele. Six captain’s picks will be made on Aug. 28 to round out the team. But besides the six auto-qualifiers, which other players at this point are virtual locks?

Sens: Spieth, Morikawa either based on history or team pairing purposes. Everyone beyond that strikes me as a toss-up. Cameron Young for the firepower? Denny Mcarthy for the putting. The good news is Johnson can’t really go wrong. Until he does

Dethier: Koepka’s in. Spieth’s in. I’m pretty sure Morikawa and Fowler are in, too. Nobody really busted through the door this week which means those final two spots are still sort of up for grabs based on play at East Lake. Cameron Young seems like a near-lock, and Justin Thomas is waiting in the wings, but there’s still a week left for Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Lucas Glover and (perhaps?) Denny McCarthy to show their captain something dramatic.

Wall: Say what you want about Koepka plying his trade on the LIV Tour, I think he’s a mortal lock for the team. Spieth, Morikawa and Fowler should get the nod, but the other three slots are total tossups.

Apparently nobody told Jonathan Wall there would be math, because he's compiling a 13-player roster.  Obviously the name conspicuous by its absence is Cam Young, so perhaps the guys think Fred went rogue.

You'll note Dylan's double-dip, but he does make the point that a few of those guys have one more chance to show Zach something....

3. Brooks Koepka jumped into auto-qualifier territory thanks to his PGA Championship win, but he was bumped out of the top six after the BMW and now sits seventh. As the only LIV player with a realistic chance to make the Ryder Cup team — which Brandel Chamblee voiced his strong stance on last week — do you think captain Zach Johnson will struggle with the idea of picking Koepka now?

Sens: I think we can call Koepka a lock. No matter what he does, Johnson knows he will likely
take heat from one faction or another. Might as well take a proven killer who happens to be the reigning pga champ, with a runner up the Masters this year to boot. All that said, I think the European captain picks are more fraught/interesting. Harrington or Aberg, for instance. The veteran playing well vs the young birdie machine etc. No shortage of LIV controversy either.

Dethier: There’s no leaving Koepka off this team; he nearly won the Masters and he won the PGA! He’s earned his spot in Rome. And he’ll be chosen for the team. That doesn’t mean Koepka is playing his best golf of the year; he’s been T38 or worse in his last three LIV events and DataGolf’s rankings show that several other American LIV golfers have been better in the lead-up to the event. But the Ryder Cup is a big event and Koepka shows up for big events. He belongs on the team, no question.

Wall: Leaving Brooks off the team would set a dangerous precedent that only PGA Tour members deserve a spot on the team. Things are tenuous at best between the Tour and LIV, so the last thing anyone wants is more chaos. Koepka is a proven name with team experience who showed up during the majors. You need a big-game hunter like Koepka who thrives under pressure. ZJ will have some difficult choices when he fills out the rest of his team — but this one is a layup. Put his name on the squad and move on.

Wall's take is curious, given that status quo ante as of June 5th....  I think the guys are right, given the current state of Tour-PIF negotiations, but a "dangerous precedent"?  I've got whiplash.

4. Lucas Glover followed up his back-to-back victories with a T22-finish at the BMW Championship, and his recent surge has pushed him all the way to 16th in the Ryder Cup standings. But is it still too little too late? What kind of finish does he need at the Tour Championship to force Zach Johnson to pick him?

Sens: Glover has been on a torrid run but I don’t think you take an older guy with a history of heebie-jeebies with the putter over any number of younger guys with younger nerves. If anything,
though, that’s more a reflection of the depth the Us can draw on that it is a dis on Glover

Dethier: We’re always such prisoners of the moment with this stuff; people got understandably swept up in Glovermania following his (ridiculously impressive!) back-to-back wins. If the Ryder Cup was in two weeks I think he’d have a better argument. But we’re still more than a month out, which means Johnson will have to project forward. I think Glover needs to contend at East Lake to be in the conversation for that final spot.

Wall: I’m with Dylan. If the Ryder Cup was a week or two after the Tour Championship, I think he might got the nod. A lot can change in more than a month. If Glover wants to lock up a spot, he needs to be right there on Sunday with a chance to win.

They're not wrong about the time frame, though the Glover thing is more, perhaps, than just a heater.  He's always been a great ball-striker, so if he's found a way to be consistently Tour-average as a putter, that's notable and promising.  He may not have played in any of the majors but, unlike JT and Young, he will be at East Lake.

I'm going to defer my opinion on picks until after the Tour Championship, but I will say at this juncture that I would not put Cam Young on the team.  He doesn't bring a skill set to the table that works all that well in the team competition, as his only compelling strength is his driver, and I assume that (like Paris) the course will be set up to minimize that skill set.  Even within that SG: Driving his numbers skew opposite of what I imagine will be useful, as he's 3rd in distance but 122nd in accuracy.

Catch you later in the week to talk Euros, but also perhaps those other cups as well.

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