Midweek Musings - Final Countdown Edition

The good news is that the weather forecast is so bad there will no need to juggling the playing with the watching.  And ay Yankees have eliminated themselves as viewing competition, so the decks are cleared.

So, what shall we speak of:

Everyone Talks About The Weather - But few report thereon:

In case you're sensing issues, the weather is fine for today's Par-3 as well, though the course took on lots of water on Monday.

Would love to see more wind in those forecasts to dry it out.  There's only one player that I think of in conjunction with the weather, and Rory's believers will be quite happy with this outlook.  Not enough wind to bother him, though in a perfect world they'd like their workspace softened up each night.

For us it just means the schedule will be uninterrupted.

The Vibe - It's not a bad place, for sure:

The happiest place on Earth? Tuesday at Augusta National makes its case

I'll go way out on a limb and guess that we'll hear about a certain oak tree....

Shane Lowry stood and spoke to a dozen reporters on Tuesday, his eyes fixed on the writers in front of him while occasionally wandering off to the course behind them.

From the media flash area — right of the 1st fairway, outside of scoring, next to the big oak tree — you can see everything. It’s nearly the highest point of the golf course, and the sprawling property unfolds in front of you.

Giddy patrons trudge up and down the hills. One man double-fists a couple of Azalea cocktails. Another already has his collectable plastic drink stack three-cups high. Michelle Wie West and Mel Reid and Jim Furyk — not together, but all out here — mix it up among the patrons. Lions star Aidan Hutchinson is out on the course. So is two-time NBA champ J.R. Smith.

A fan snaps a photo of Lowry. Behind him a man takes a photo of his friends and behind them a woman snaps a photo of her crew. Under the big aforementioned tree, Stefan Schauffele greets his son, Xander, who walks by with a TrackMan in hand. Xander hasn’t won a green jacket yet, but he could this week.

Today, Augusta National is the place to be — for players, for patrons, for instructors, for agents. There’s something magical about the Masters, and that gets magnified early in the week.

Yeah, long known as the best hang in golf.  For those within the gates, that is.

On Thursday and Friday, the scores count. Some players will be promptly ejected while others stay in contention. But today? It’s Tuesday. There’s nothing but optimism and good vibes and hope. It’s mid-60s and blue skies. When it’s sunny, like it is today, the Crow’s Nest tastes better.

Didn't know that the Crow's Nest had a taste....

It's Christmas in April.... If for no other reason than this:

Of course, if you're lucky enough to be invited, wouldn't you get your butt there?

Thirty-two of 35 chairs for past champs were occupied on the second floor of Augusta National’s clubhouse, as only Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and Sandy Lyle failed to make the Georgia trek two nights before the start of the 2025 Masters.

Because it's such a long trip from Jupiter?  Notice that Jack got himself there, it's a respect thing.

Players - I don't waste too much time picking winners, maybe because I never have....  Dylan Dethier devotes his Monday Finish column to this premise:

The 10 most compelling golfers at the 2025 Masters

Each of the 96 competitors [editor’s note: 95, following Vijay Singh‘s WD] at the 2025 Masters has a journey that’s compelling in its own right, from the oldest (Bernhard Langer, 67) to the youngest (Noah Kent, 20) to the most recent winner (Brian Harman) to the twins (Nicolai and Rasmus Højgaard) to the comeback kids (Daniel Berger, to name one) — you get the idea. Everybody in the field has done something special to get here.

There’s Langer, playing in his final Masters on the 40th anniversary of his first Masters win. There’s Angel Cabrera, who missed several Masters after being in prison and just won on the PGA Tour Champions. There are trending PGA Tour pros who keep contending and are hunting a third major, like Justin Thomas and the probably-currently-underrated Collin Morikawa. There are past Masters champs coming in from LIV and showing some form, like Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed. There’s Joaquin Niemann, who has shown worldwide just how good he is but hasn’t necessarily done so in major championships. And there are a couple of European Ryder Cuppers I expect to contend in Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry. There’s everybody else, too.

Enough waffling. Let’s get to the top 10.

He seems to be implying, without actually saying, that the field is more compelling than u usually is....whereas I'll just say that one of his bottom does compel, the other not so much (whether you'll agree as to which is which is quite another matter):

10. Jordan Spieth. This year marks the 10-year anniversary of Spieth’s 2015 Masters win; it feels like he’s won at Augusta three or four times but, so far, just the one. That Spieth was different from this Spieth but he’s shown just enough recent form — three top-12s in his last six starts — to get the Spiethians to believe. In his last four Masters he has two top-fours and two missed cuts. Which version will we get this week?

9. Ludvig Åberg. Yes, the guy from the YouTube video! The Swedish sensation finished runner-up in his Masters debut last year — the first major of his young career, by the way — and claimed one of this year’s top trophies at the Genesis Invitational. But he enters the week off two consecutive missed cuts. Which direction is Ludvig trending?

I guess Dylan didn't hear that the last Spiethian died off in 2021.... He had suffered enough.

But Aberg is compelling.... I though his facial reactions were the best thing about the TGL, and his performance last year was truly compelling.

Dylan is listing the best-known players in the world, so not completely shocking that they're of interest.... though I do agree with him here:

1. Rory McIlroy. If you’re a golf fan you can probably recite this paragraph with your eyes closed: McIlroy hasn’t won a major in over a decade but has won everything else in the meantime. He possesses incredible longevity but also owns deep heartbreak. He remains just one Masters away from the career grand slam. This year seems to be set up perfectly for him, too: he’s entering with terrific form and plenty of winning mojo, with titles at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass. Now all that’s left is the pesky task of actually playing the tournament in the fewest number of shots…

Let's see, there's Augusta, Pinehurst, The Old Course and LACC..... the manner of his demise will be Appointment TV.

This return is obviously a bit awkward:

Does Angel Cabrera belong at this Masters? Not everyone’s convinced

On a bluebird Tuesday afternoon at Augusta National, 55-year-old Angel Cabrera was banging balls on the right end of the gleaming practice range in preparation for his 21st Masters start but

first since 2019. Gone were the Ping and South Africa Airways logos he wore on his hat and shirt, respectively, when he won here in 2009, replaced by his interlocking initials, AC, in both spots. Attentive golf fans might recognize Cabrera in this environment but perhaps not if they strolled by him on the street. He’s wider around the middle than he was when Trevor Immelman slipped the green jacket over his shoulders. The bags under his eyes have grown heavier, and his neatly cropped beard is mostly gray.

Cabrera’s swing lacks some of the pop that you might remember from when he beat Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell in a playoff to become South America’s first Masters champion, but you don’t need to watch him groove drivers for long to deduce that he can still golf his ball. He proved as much just last week when he shot 11 under in a 54-hole PGA Tour Champions event in South Florida to win by two over K.J Choi.

That victory garnered much attention because it was Cabrera’s first since he was released on parole from an Argentine prison in March 2023. Over the previous 30 months, Cabrera had served time in three different prisons for various charges, including domestic violence allegations filed by two former girlfriends; in one instance, Cabrera admitted to hurling a cellphone at his partner’s head.

Hey, if Phil is allowed back, I have no issues....

We can agree that the scripting is out of hand, but this one is awfully cute:

Nike sent a care package for Bennett’s first Masters pic.twitter.com/CM7S0tW9Jg

— TrackingScheffler (@SchefflerLegion) April 7, 2025

Kinda cool when your Dad has one two of them before you're even born...

You know how I feel about the small size of the Masters field, but in no way, shape or form is it THAT small:

The definitive list of 9 golfers who can win the 2025 Masters

Though this list of rules is pretty amusing:

Our good friend, Golf Lock Guru, has six hard and fast rules for picking a Masters champion that have served us quite well over the years (they correctly identified Scheffler last year, though that really didn't take much convincing).

Here's a quick refresher:If you are not in the upper-quartile of the field in recent tee-to-green play, you are not winning. Let’s call it in the last 20 rounds.

• If you are a debutante, you are not winning. If you have never shown an ability to compete for a win at Augusta, you are not winning.
• If you have shown the ability to compete for a win at Augusta too many times without winning, you are also not winning — unless you are chasing the career grand slam. (Let’s call this one the Xander Schauffele Rule).
• If you have replaced your putter for no apparent reason in the last month, you are not winning.
• If you have fired your caddy or swing coach in the lead up to Augusta, you are not winning (sorry Matthew Fitzpatrick and Max Homa).
• If you have ever referred to Augusta as a Par 67, you are not winning.

What if you've replaced your putter for cause?  Though I'm a little confused as to where Rory stands on the Xander Rule, thinking he deserves his own rule.

And yet, the list includes Keegan, Corey Connors and Sepp Straka.....  I wouldn't say those guys CAN'T win, but none of them rock my world.

Dress Codes - You'd think someone could have warned him:

College coach escorted off range for wearing shorts at Augusta National: 'Pants tomorrow'

 Still not as embarrassing as this guy:

Why Masters told Jason Day to change his outfits for 2025: 'It'll be toned down'

Day revealed he had to alter his outfit choices for this year's tournament when the initial look he and Malbon came up with was not approved.

"If they would have let us do what we first put the scripting through to them, it would have been a lot crazier than last year," Day said during a recent appearance on Skratch's "Dan on Golf Show" with Dan Rapaport. "But it'll be toned down just because they have a little bit more, they asked to see the scripting before. The funny thing was, they've never asked to see scripting of mine because I've always been pretty neutral and down the middle. This year they asked, obviously, with what happened last year."

He was paired with Tiger when he wore that, so would have garnered way too much airtime for the Lords of Augusta.  But I don't want to see anything crazier than that vest from last year, do you?

I'm running out of steam and have a lengthy To-Do list to dive into, so enjoy today's Par-3 and what follows tomorrow. 

Weekend Wrap - Christmas In April Edition

That header was inspired mostly by looking at this week's weather forecast for.... well, Greenwich, CT.  The good news is that there's little risk of actual golf impinging on watching the masters... There is a tee time for Wednesday, just color me skeptical that it'll be utilized.

I did get the first round of the year in on Friday.  Given the above, glad we got that one in....

The Young Ladies - There's so much to love about the ANWA though, alas, more to hate.  I'll carry the torch for the Dinah, somebody has to but, to prove my point, I'll ask a simple question.  Why do they even play those first two rounds at Champions Retreat?  It's tree in the woods stuff...

We'll let Geoff tell the tale:

Another Spaniard Conquers Augusta National

Carla Bernat Escuder becomes the first women's amateur winner from Spain and continues a tradition unlike any other in holding off 16-year-old Asterisk Talley.

The Augusta National Women’s Amateur doesn’t start until the 10th tee on Saturday. Or so believes its latest champion, even after taking the lead and never looking back following birdies at the eighth and ninth holes. While Carla Bernat Escuder may not know the exact origins of Dan Jenkins’ Masters admonition, she sure does good homework.

“I knew the tournament was going to start on No. 10 because I've watched all the Masters,” said the 21-year-old from Castellon. “As soon as I hit that second shot [on 10], I was like, oh, I need to get it together and just get this par, and I dig in, and I think that was the key.”

After posting a brilliant final round 68 fueled by six birdies—including on all four par-5’s—the annual women’s amateur continues to feel more like vintage Masters tournaments than…The Masters. Victory was only clinched after making a difficult par putt at the 18th.

Bernat Escudar built a lead after opening in 33 just prior to the key par save at 10. She then built a necessary cushion with birdies at 13 and 15. On the latter par 5 played at 475 yards for the ANWA, she selected 7-iron to play into the par 5 green. She went long but made birdie and it ended up proving a huge moment en route to her 204 total (-12). An eventual one-stroke win came over incredible 16-year-old American Asterisk Talley, who eagled the first and also posted a final round 68.

In the cycle-of0life stuff at which this golf club excels, Jose Maria was there to watch, just as we would have scripted it.

Amusingly, she had the benefit of an all-Spaniard pairing:

The Spanish Augusta connection started in earnest with Seve Ballesteros, continued with José María Olazábal, and more recently has been maintained by Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm. It continued Saturday with four of the six ANWA Spaniards making the 36-hole cut. Bernet Escuder also enjoyed a final-round pairing with one of those players, Stanford’s ebullient Andrea Revuelta of Madrid.

“It was really nice playing with her,” said Bernet Escuder. “It made it feel like we were not in Augusta, either. It was like we were playing when we were 15 back in the day.”

That's "15 back in the day" is so cute, given that the girl she held off by a stroke, Asterisk Talley, is all of sixteen...

Before moving on to our entrée, the Tour Confidential panel spared a moment for this event:

Spain’s Carla Bernat Escuder held off Lottie Woad and Asterisk Talley to win the Augusta National Women’s Amateur on Saturday. What most impressed you about Bernat Escuder’s play, and what did you learn in the latest edition of the ANWA?

Berhow: Her fearless play. Holding that lead on the back nine is not easy to do and she did it while hitting some big-time shots, like that fairway wood from an awkward lie to the 13th green that set up a two-putt birdie (and three-shot lead). This tournament has quickly become one of the handful you circle on the calendar in amateur and pro golf. It’s fun to see how the top female ams play it and introduce themselves to the golfing world. It’s the perfect Masters appetizer. Although I still want more of it on TV.

Schrock: She was so steady in the cauldron. As the pressure ratcheted up on the back nine, she never flinched. She had that massive par save on No. 10 and the second shot on 13 to set up a key birdie. I do want to give a shoutout to Asterisk Talley, who had arguably the two most impressive feats of the day with the hole-out eagle on No. 1 and that ridiculous birdie on No. 17. She’s so damn impressive.

Hirsh: I love how she references the “Masters begins on the back nine Sunday” tagline during her press conference. I think her being herself at her press conference instead of getting stiff and awkward with the lights (and green jackets) turned on was really impressive. We also learned this week that Asterisk Talley didn’t have just a hot season last year — she’s going to be a contender for years to come no matter what level she plays at. As for the ANWA, why aren’t we playing more of it at Augusta National? It’s called the Augusta National Women’s Amateur, but only 33 percent of it is played at Augusta National. Also agree we need more TV coverage of it.

I'm glad that insane birdie on seventeen got a call-out, though that means that the Californian was best at channeling Seve.

Augusta On My Mind - We're gonna start slowly and build through the week.....  Or not, I really have no clue.  Let's leave it in the hands of the golfing media to make me blog..... 

This tab has been open since late last week:

18 reasons why the Masters is sports’ greatest event

Eighteen, huh?  Kind of an odd number.... I might have been tempted to go for twenty-two, just to see if anyone got the reference....

The problem is....well, you'll see soon enough:

14. THE FIELD

Sixty-seven-year-old Bernhard Langer of Germany will be there; so to will the best players in the sport in their prime 20s and 30s. Both represent an invitational with sweeping geographic and generational reach. Other tournaments have tougher fields, but the Masters is the finest illustration of golf as a cherished game of a lifetime, played avidly around the globe.

Is generational reach an unalloyed positive in sports?  Yeah, not even close.... What elite golf needs are more 67-year olds clogging up small fields, right?

The Masters field is so tiny as to not be credible for major championship golf.  While the field size often balloons to ninety players or more, there's math involved.  When you carve out the amateurs and the septuagenarians, it's field designed to warm the cockles of Patrick Cantlay's heart.

As for this one, shark, jumped:

9. THE PAR-3 CONTEST

It’s the Masters in miniature, without the pressure, with kids and wives doubling as caddies, and players skipping shots across the ponds. No one who ever won it claimed the green jacket the same year, but just competing in it is a win-win.

Except that they've rendered it unwatchable.... Now we segue from the unwatchable to the unlistenable:

3. THE THEME MUSIC

It’s a song that’s inseparable from the occasion, the golf world’s version of “Here Comes the Bride.” Sappy? Maybe. But its strains are also soothing and reassuring, a cue to all those listening that something wonderful is underway.

 And lastly....

2. THE HONORARY STARTERS

Only their achievements are immortal. The power of these moments lies in that fact. Since 1963, when Jock Hutchison and Fred McLeod struck the first symbolic tee shots, only seven other greats have carried out the role that Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Tom Watson fill today. Like Nelson, Palmer, Snead, Sarazen and Venturi before them, they won’t be here forever. But we watch them knowing that their legacies will last.

Which is a wonderful tradition that's included so many of the lions of our game.  But we're supposed to revere these traditions, while the actual; participants desecrate them?

A South African stepping all over the tribute to the first black man to play at Augusta.... Yeah, it's special for sure.

Shall we check in with the TC gang, who have a Rory-centric focus this year?

Welcome to Masters week, where there’s no shortage of storylines: Rory McIlroy will (yet

again) try to finish off the career grand slam; stars like JT and Xander will try to win their first green jacket; Scottie Scheffler will try to win his third; and two-time champ Bernhard Langer will say goodbye. Although until Rory wins this tournament, will his quest for the slam always be the main storyline? Does he need a Masters win the most?

Josh Berhow: Until Scottie or some future star is looking to win something like a third straight — or until a Tiger Woods Masters sendoff — Rory going for the grand slam is always going to be the obvious main storyline at Augusta. But that’s just because of the layers to it — the haunting way he lost the 2011 Masters and the major drought that’s now reached a decade. He has several good years left though and he’s going to win one. He’s too good not to.

Josh Schrock: Agree with Berhow. Rory will be the lead storyline of the Masters until he either wins one or there’s a golf eclipse-type storyline for everyone else to focus on. Augusta National is tailor-made for Rory’s game and the different ways he has come up short — from the blowup in 2011 to not pushing Patrick Reed in the final group in 2018 to a blistering backdoor runner-up in 2022 — make him storyline 1A and 1B unless Tiger is in the field.

Jack Hirsh: I have nothing to argue with those two answers. Add to it the fact that Rory has perhaps the best lead-in to the Masters of his entire career, and there’s going to be immense pressure on this week. I subscribe to the rumor mill on social media that he mentioned his elbow was bothering him last week so some of the expectations could be lifted, but I think most have forgotten about that.

Maybe Lee Trevino needs it more, but that about covers it....  Not only does a win confer immortality, but Rory has quite publicly spit the bit several times, rendering it Must See TV.   Each year has a slightly different tinge to it....  this time he's coming in showing great form, so methinks Thursday will be quite the nail-biter for him.

Why will Rory win this week? And why won’t he?

Berhow: Why will he? Because he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s won twice this year and already came out of a high-stress situation (the Players Championship playoff) on top. No, he hasn’t won the Masters, but he has finished top 10 seven times. He’s likely to be in contention at some point, and if you get enough at-bats one of them is bound to work out in your favor, especially for one of the top-five most-talented players in the game. The golf gods work in mysterious ways. It’s time for some of that heartbreak (like his Pinehurst loss) to even out. Why won’t he win? Because golf (and life) is not fair and nothing is promised on Sunday at Augusta.

Schrock: He claims he’s the most complete golfer he has ever been and the stats back it up this season. The work done in the offseason to rework his takeaway, coupled with a focus on course management and a new golf ball, has him firing on almost all cylinders. Rory has suffered so many scars in recent years as he tried to break this drought. He arrives at Augusta not searching or hoping but playing the best golf of anyone in the world. If not now, when?

Hirsh: It’s easy to see how he wins. The driver gets cooking and we see him hit from spots we haven’t seen players play from since they Tiger-proofed the course (and then they build a bunch of new tees and make the course 8,000 yards next year). How he loses is he starts playing well and then gets to No. 10 and starts feeling the demons of 2011 come back. He just might be broken at Augusta.

I noted his form above, and that has included seemingly improved distance control with his wedges.   To the extent that that shows up this week, he could be a contendah.

But the corollary will include a Bobby Jones citation:

“Golf is a game that is played on a five-inch course – the distance between your ears.”

 And that course unfortunately is not pleasing to Rory's eye.  Or, at least, has not been to date.

What’s a storyline no one is talking about that deserves more attention?

Berhow: I have no under-the-radar storyline to offer but have one random thought to type out: it’s crazy we have reached the 10-year anniversary of Jordan Spieth’s Masters win (which was immediately followed by his Chambers Bay U.S. Open victory). He’s won just one major since those two in 2015 — the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale — and he continues to become a difficult player to predict. His last four Masters starts — MC, T4, MC, T3. The sport is a lot more fun when he’s in contention. I hope he’s in the mix this week.

Schrock: I would have gone with Spieth and I expect Augusta National to stir the Spieth of old next week. I’m going to go with Jon Rahm. His first major season as a member of LIV Golf was a dud outside of a T7 at The Open. His Masters defense fell flat last year and he followed that with a missed cut at the PGA Championship. He remains one of the most talented golfers on the planet but will that show on the biggest stages this year?

Hirsh: I’ll follow Schrock’s lead and go with another LIV golfer in Joaquin Niemann. I will say the people calling him the best player on the planet right now is overblown, but he should have as much expectations on him this week as anyone not named Scottie or Rory. He’s still never finished better than T16 in a major championship and if that continues, that’s not going to be a good look for the competitive balance on LIV Golf.

That's certainly a respectable range of answers, though are any of those stories really underreported?

We always hear that ANGC will fix Jordan, which very much seems to be the case, except when it isn't.

They have more to say on the LIV angle, but I have no explanation for what's become of Jon Rahm, except to note that he took the easy money.  What did we think would happen to his game?  And, contra Hirsch, I'll say that Niemann has gotten far more press than a guy that's never had a top ten in a major deserves....

Most likely to win a green jacket first: Morikawa, Xander or JT?

Berhow: Xander and Collin have both played very well here but I’ll give the slight nod to Morikawa, who has the perfect game for this golf course. He’s also had an awesome season so far — two runner-up finishes, a T10 and pair of T17s. Oh, and his last three starts at Augusta? All top 10s. His ball-striking is back to being among the game’s best (currently 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach), he’s confident and he’s got a little chip on his shoulder looking for that next win. Heck, maybe he wins this thing this year?

Schrock: I think the likely answer is Xander but I’ll make the case for JT. In the age of Trackman and dome golfers, JT is a true artist. When he’s playing at his best, his game and imagination should fit Augusta perfectly. He is finally out of the wilderness and has been playing like a top-10 player for six months. Don’t be surprised if he’s slipping on the green jacket Sunday.

Hirsh: It’s Morikawa. He’s just due. He’d probably be my pick if it wasn’t for McIlroy. While he doesn’t have the prodigious length, his elite ball-striking is tailor-made for Augusta, which is one of the few courses the Tour plays where angles still matter. I like him a lot this week.

First?  Tough because my instinct is Xander, though I don't especially like him this year, mostly because he hasn't shown any form since his return.  Jt and Collin have been on kind of the same path, showing some form and getting into the mix, but they certainly haven't finished.  

But since Collin doesn't think he owes anyone anything, I'll just remind him that that goes both ways.

While several PGA Tour headliners took last week off, a dozen Augusta-bound players competed at LIV Golf Miami. Rank your top-five Masters contenders from the group that just played a tune-up in Florida.

Berhow: My subjective ranking goes 1) Bryson, 2) Rahm, 3) Brooks Koepka, 4) Phil Mickelson, and 5) Cameron Smith. Joaquin Niemann seems like a guy ready to break out at a major at some point, but we haven’t seen it yet. Smith is the curious one — five top 10s in his last seven trips here, but he didn’t do much (T63, T32, MC) in his three other major starts last season. Is this the week he jumps back on everyone’s radar?

Schrock: Man, this is tough. I’ll go 1) Bryson, 2) Rahm, 3) Brooks, 4) Sergio Garcia, 5) Tyrrell Hatton. I think the top three are pretty clear. Sergio Garcia has been playing really good golf for the better part of a year now and has good history at Augusta National. It feels like a week where he could contend. I know Joaquin Niemann has been lighting up LIV, but until he cards a top-15 in a major, I can’t look at him as a legitimate threat to make noise at Augusta. Hatton got kicked in the teeth by Doral, but he has been playing well over the last six months. He finished T9 at Augusta last year, and I think he’ll be lingering to start the weekend. Phil could very well turn back the clock one more time, but he’s a pass for me.

Hirsh: 1) Rahm, 2) Niemann 3) Sergio 4) Brooks Koepka 5) Bryson. Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bryson doesn’t make the cut. He didn’t make the cut in 2022 or 2023. The concept that he figured something out last year seems foolish. Nobody really figures out Augusta National except Tiger. Rahm is the clear top dawg here as he needs to show he can compete in the majors still after a lackluster showing last year. As I mentioned above, Niemann wants to shake the doubters of his major prospects. Sergio Garcia’s play of late really makes me think he could do something special in his 40s.

So two of the three leave out the Best. Player. In. The. World?  And Josh Berhow has me doing spit takes because he includes the guy that called a man without a major top ten the best player in the world.  Is this fun or what?

For those inclined towards deep dives, Geoff has a two-parter on the evolution of the persnickety third hole:

Alister MacKenzie considered Augusta National’s third hole to be nearly perfect.

The club contends it is the least changed hole on the course.

I’m not sure either party is correct. But we still love ’em!

On the eve of the 89th Masters where no intentional design changes have taken place, the drive-and-pitch par-4 may see a modest impact from last year’s hurricane. But a significant change has already been seen this century in how players attack MacKenzie’s supposedly lightly changed hole.

At a venue the world knows better than their home courses, the third somehow retains an air of mysteriousness, cautiousness, and extreme respect. Watching Masters action there is rarely dull. It’s also the last two-shotter at Augusta National to retain an indefinable, sure-fire way to play it. There is still plenty of risk, reward, and that fun fine line sensibility of a hole where prospects for a 3 on the card can quickly turn to a 5 with only the slightest mistake.

Modern technology and an early 80s landing area change have made the straightaway, uphill hole a little less option-rich. But with added distance has come the excitement of seeing players attempting to drive the green even if they need a lucky bounce to have a tee shot finish on the putting surface. The third’s left hole location remains as difficult to play to as it has since 1933, and is as dangerous to attack as Sunday’s back right pin on 12. And while the tightened landing area and insane carry distances remain, number three may see a rekindling of certain playing dimensions due to tree losses. After all, the current mentality to bomb away off the tee has done little to change its scoring average. (The thinking behind that approach covered in Part 2 of this saga might even be causing players unnecessary stress.)

Mastery of the third has been key to Scottie Scheffler’s two Green Jackets, including the site of his incredible 2022 chip-in. He’s four-under-par there in 20 competitive rounds at Augusta National. With 18 hole coverage, every shot on demand, and the collective appreciation for shorter par 4s that everyone can enjoy playing or watching, the third hole has become an early indicator of final round glory as the brutal stretch of 4-5-6 awaits.

But is it a great hole? Or just a little awkward enough to seem more interesting? I’m not sure co-architect and club co-founder Bobby Jones adored it as much as his design partner Alister MacKenzie, whose extreme enthusiasm for “Flowering Peach” may have been as much about keeping Clifford Roberts from overmeddling. Roberts was MacKenzie’s worst nightmare for a client: he constantly offered ideas while claiming he knew nothing about course design. And he didn’t pay MacKenzie’s bill.

That last 'graph has a boatload of  Augusta history in it.  Have you read David Owen's take on it all yet?  What are you waiting for?  It's a great story because the event they created was so damn improbable given the long odds.... Do yourself a favor and give it a read.  You can thank me later.

Spoiler alert, the modern professional will always bomb it off the tee here.  This is from Geoff's Part 2:

The third hole serves as an early stress-test and birdie chance before the hang-on-for-dear-life stretch of 4-5-6-7. As the 2025 approaches and we are still three Masters away from a possible rollback, the tee shot stress has been minimized by the ability to bomb away from the tee toward the widest part of the hole using the most forgiving club in the bag.

“There's not too much thought to the tee shot anymore,” says 2008 Masters Champion Trevor Immelman. “You're looking at about 275, 280 to cover the set of bunkers down the left-hand side, so the majority of them have got that shot, no problem. So if it's calm, even if the hole location is on the left--which is the most tricky--we're still seeing guys blasting it down there just short of the upslope and then playing 15 or 20 feet out to the right of the hole from about 60 or 70 yards.”

Into the wind, Immelman says players still “have to make a decision” but nearly all players want a shorter, more lofted approach iron generating the most spin.

Even this guy, the best driver of the ball in golf, recognizes the effect that distance has on the game:

While Rory McIlroy apologetically believes the tee shot today is a bit “thoughtless,” he says it wasn’t always that way.

“My first Masters was 2009 and I remember you had to hit a good drive to clear those bunkers. The only [pin] I think about not hitting driver is when it’s front left. Even when its front right I try to hit it into the front bunker and get an angle up the green.”

Playing close to the green has become more popular now that players are able to crank one out there 330. In faster conditions, the large valley in front of the green acts more like a pinball machine during Masters week. Drives run up the slope toward the infinity green, then down and sometimes in a swooping half-circle as they ride the grain. Watching what the ball does when it lands off the tee and into the green is one of the more nuanced Masters spectating pleasures.

Increasingly, players have been happy to catch the greenside bunker for what is a pretty simple recovery shot from the manicured sand. Adam Scott hit such a drive in last year’s final round, accounting for one of the three eagles in 2024 when he holed out from the sand.

A fun deep dive.

Less successful was Shack's April Fools Day post.  You can explore it on your own should you so choose, but it's long past time to blow up that holiday.

That's it for today, kids.  Have a great week and I'll be back....

  

Late-Week Lamentations - Welcome Home Edition

The curtain dropped on a dreadful ski season Tuesday morning, fittingly as it so happens.  As we departed, Park City got hit with 17" of fresh snow over 48 hours, completely on brand for a season in which it only snowed when I was absent from the jurisdiction.  Did anyone think I had forgotten the 45" of snow received while I was up in British Columbia?

We did have one last spectacular sunrise on Sunday morning:

And I grabbed one last view of the Wasatch Front from the air:

The boys were jumping with joy to see us:

Though they're notably unhappy at the work commencing in the house....

I'm just going to catch up on a couple of small bits, mostly from earlier in the week.  Then I'll rest up and dive in on our flood-the-zone Masters coverage.  I'm happy to report that the Delta Sky Club is very much enjoying the season:

Makes sense that Georgia would be, as they say, on their minds....

The ANWA - I have trouble giving up my grudge on this event, because of the damage done and it's half-hearted nature.  It's called the Augusta National Women's Amateur, but only one of three rounds are played at that namesake club (and many of the girls invited don't get a tournament round there).  But the bigger issue is with the date, whereby they killed off the best of the women's majors, the event formerly known as the Dinah.

Yet none except your humble blogger will call out the Lords of Augusta.... What exactly would be the harm if you let the all play Saturday at ANGC?  For that matter, why can't they play there Wednesday and Thursday?

The Tour Confidential panel led with a preview of sorts:

The sixth edition of the Augusta National Women’s Amateur kicks off Wednesday at Champions Retreat, just down the road from Augusta National. Three former champions — Lottie Woad (2024), Anna Davis (2022) and Tsubasa Kajitani (2021) — are in the field and looking to become the first two-time winners, and the stacked Stanford University women’s golf team will have six players in the field, led by five-time ANWA participant Megha Ganne. What pre-tourney storyline most has your attention?

Alan Bastable: As a proud New Jerseyite, hard for me not to pull for Ganne, who hails from Holmdel, 30 minutes south of me. But I’m most intrigued by Rianne Malixi, who won both the U.S. Girls’ Junior Amateur and U.S. Women’s Am last summer (a feat accomplished only once before). If she can add the ANWA to her mantle, we’ll have to add a new term to the golf lexicon: the Malixi Slam.

Sean Zak: Lottie Woad. Could we see the first title defense in this tournament? She’s by far the best women’s amateur right now — don’t forget her 10th-place finish at the Women’s Open last summer at St. Andrews — and I think we see her get it done again at Augusta.

James Colgan: Rachel Heck! We’ll be hearing from her for basically the first time since she gave up a life on the LPGA Tour in favor of life as a private equity analyst and Air Force trainee. She was once women’s golf’s biggest can’t-miss prospect. Where’s she at now? I can’t wait to find out.

Alan Bastable has the best of it thus far, with the first round at Champions Retreat in the books:

What a start for Megha Ganne.

The junior at Stanford opened the 2025 Augusta National Women's Amateur with a bogey-free 9-under 63, a new ANWA scoring record. The previous low round at Champions Retreat Golf Club,

site of the first two rounds, was Rose Zhang shooting 65 in the second round in 2023. The previous low first-round score was 66, which Zhang shot in 2023 and Hannah Darling matched last year.

Starting on the back nine, Ganne birdied Nos. 11-13 and added another at 16 to turn in 32. On her second nine, she had an eagle at the par-5 third and added birdies on Nos. 1, 6 and No. 7. She had an eagle putt on the closing par-5 ninth but three putted to sign for 63.

This is Ganne's fifth appearance at ANWA, making the cut each of the past two years. She's one of eight players with Stanford connections in the field, whether it be former players, current stars or commits.

I like the Rachel Heck call-out as well.  Her decision to eschew a crack at professional golf was likely the result of a sober assessment of her diminishing results, but she's been at the center of that Stanford program for many years.

Other Stuff - A slight detour to riff on some other TC bits:

TGL, the indoor simulator league backed by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, wrapped its

debut season this week with Atlanta Drive GC knocking off New York GC in the two-night final. Ratings and reviews for the inaugural season largely were positive, but what’s one tweak you’d like to see for 2026?

Bastable: Gotta dial the tech. Too many shots this season left the pros looking bewildered. Also would like to see some fans filling those virtual grandstands. Oh, and why no mascots?! A Boston Common bullfrog hopping about the arena would make an immediate impact.

Zak: Move mountains to get a Sofi satellite dome in Dallas so Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth can get involved. Do whatever you can do get them into Season 2.

Colgan: Agreed, Zak! More stars! I want to commend the TGL for settling into itself really well as the season progressed. That was not guaranteed, and I thought the league found the right pitch of self-seriousness. Now comes the hard part: juicing the billing every single night.

I've spent a few minutes Googling and can't seem to come up with the ratings for their playoffs, though one assumes this couldn't have helped:

Viewers hoping to tune in to watch the first-ever TGL Finals Series were left disappointed after ESPN's coverage was delayed due to March Madness.

The first match of the three-game series between New York. and Atlanta was due to be shown live on ESPN 2 at 9 p.m. E.T. But the broadcasting giant opted to stick with North Carolina's clash with West Virginia in the Women's NCAA Tournament.

As a result, TGL opted to delay the start time of their first-ever Finals match-up while broadcasting the buildup behind a paywall on ESPN+. The decision came as a blow as the first season of the innovative new league started by Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods came to a conclusion.

Eventually, after North Carolina wrapped up a 59-47 win over West Virginia, the TGL coverage started 14 minutes later than planned. But viewers had still had time to voice their frustration on social media.

I love the buried lede or ledes....  March Madness?  I'm not sure the ladies qualify under the Madness moniker, but it was a blowout game not involving any of the top teams.  My sense is that the ratings trend remained downward through the playoffs, but we'll flush that out later.  

But what do I know?

Could TGL expansion be coming? A recent report says there's an eight-figure offer to make it happen sooner rather than later.

As reported last week, TGL is already in talks with ESPN working on a schedule for 2026. And on Tuesday, the Associated Press reported a group is planning to bid for a franchise in Dallas, putting the total investment at $77 million.

TGL started in 2025 with six teams: Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, Boston, The Bay and Jupiter Links. Each team had four players, with three participating each week. Expansion has been a discussion point with the initial success of the league, and now we know there are bids out there to bring more teams in soon. In an interview with TGL CEO Mike McCorley, he told the Palm Beach Post there is no "timeline" on expansion, but he did not rule out a few additions for the 2026 season.

One last non-Masters bit:

Dave Pelz, one of the game’s preeminent instructors and inventors, died last weekend at 85. When you think of Pelz’s legacy, what comes to mind first?

Bastable: I always appreciated Pelz’s highly scientific approach to the game. He didn’t leave much to chance and always pushed the envelope, be that with 60-degree wedges, 2-ball putters or determining whether golfers should putt/chip with the pin in. On that last matter Pelz proved way back in 1990 — in a GOLF Magazine cover story — that there was no doubt about the wisest strategy: leave the flag in. Our colleague David DeNunzio’s touching reminiscence of Pelz is well worth your time.

Zak: Just how Phil Mickelson, one of the greatest golfers ever, spent the majority of his career invoking Pelz’ name while working through shot selection. You would regularly hear Phil ask his caddies “Is this a full 9 or a Pelz eight?” If it wasn’t a full shot, Mickelson would take 10 yards off the stock shot and call it a “Pelz”. Not sure there’s anything cooler than that.

Colgan: Twenty-one and twenty-two. The former, for the number of major championships his disciples won; the latter, for the number of times Pelz himself lost to Jack Nicklaus. You have to be pretty good at what you’re doing on a few fronts to earn either of those numbers.

 A truly original thinker.  It just makes me wonder how Butch is doing....

Masters Stuff - No heavy lifting, just a few bits from the TC gang and Shack.

It’s never too early to debate the Masters chances of Rory McIlroy, who already has won twice this year (Pebble and Players) and posted 65-65 on the weekend at the Texas Children’s Texas Open to finish T5. Prop bet time: World No. 2 McIlroy vs. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler…who ya got at ANGC?

Bastable: Heart says Rory, soul says Rory, 99.946% of my being says Rory. But wallet says Scottie.

Zak: I think the volatility of Rory’s game at times does not play well at Augusta. If they played this year’s Masters 10 times, I’d say they tie twice, Rory beats Scottie twice, and Scottie wins six times. No one has figured out that course (and golf, plainly) better than him.

Colgan: Sometimes a helpful exercise in these instances is as follows: If I told you in two weeks we’d be talking about Scottie’s third Masters win or Rory’s first, which would be more surprising to you? The answer is clearly Scottie, but I think that has more to do with the golf course than the player. Give me a neutral site battle and it might be a dead-heat.

I don't have any particular insight into Scottie's form, but we have a long experience with the gap between Rory's ears..... Which is the point that Bastable's wallet is making.  Though, given his form to date, is this his last, best chance?

As for this, it's Bubba being Bubba:

Bubba Watson raised some eyebrows this week when, in an interview with our own Sean Zak, he offered this ringing endorsement of Scheffler’s dominant 2024 season: “I know Tiger did some stuff in 2000, but Scottie’s year was the best we’ve ever seen. With all the talent around the world now playing, that was it.” What say you? Tiger 2000 vs. Scottie 2024: Which season was superior?

Bastable: Vijay Singh’s 2004 (nine wins, 18 top-10s) would like a word! But to the question at hand, I give the nod to Tiger’s 2000, because of how he won: more times than not by decimating fields. Of his nine wins, two were in playoffs. In his other seven winning weeks, he prevailed by an average of 6.57 shots. His overall strokes gained tally that year also was staggering: 3.83 compared to Scheffler’s 3.1 in 2024.

Zak: LOL. I would normally blame myself for not interjecting when Bubba said this, but he volunteered it! I never asked him to compare the two. Unfortunately for him, he’s very wrong, and the Internet screamed about it all weekend in my mentions. We can also use the same measurement we often do with Player of the Year awards: Which season would Scottie Scheffler rather have — his 2024 or Tiger’s 3-major 2000? You know the answer to that one.

Colgan: But Tiger in 2000 was playing against plumbers!!! He couldn’t hang with the athleticism of the modern NBA!

You will be sick of my take already, but Scottie won all of ONE full-field event in 2024.  

Dylan Dethier, in his Monday Finish column, had a fun take on the qualification for that final slot at Augusta, one in which both participants come off as likeable:

On Monday, Michael Kim withdrew from this week’s Valero Texas Open.

It must be the best WD of his life.

That’s because on Sunday at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, Kim chased down a prize that had seemed for years to be far out of reach.

Kim began the final round in a fight for a very important place in the Official World Golf Ranking. Just a few years ago Kim was fighting his way back inside the top 1000. But now? He needed to climb from No. 52 to No. 50 to earn a spot in the Masters tournament field via Sunday’s cutoff. Slip to No. 51? He’d be out. No Masters. Opportunity missed.

So how much was he thinking about that trip to Augusta coming down the stretch?

“Oh, I’m sure I made some pretty nervy swings on the back nine there thinking about it,” he said. Things got even stranger when he cracked his driver. He bogeyed 15. He bogeyed 17. Maybe it wasn’t meant to be? But Kim buckled down for a clutch seven-foot par putt at No. 18 to post 69 and a T32 finish. That left him in limbo, and so he had just one question when he spoke to reporters afterwards.

“What’s Ben Griffin at?”

Griffin had started the week at World No. 53, one spot behind Kim. He made a Sunday charge, staying bogey-free and stiffing his final shot of the day — a tee shot at the par-3 9th — to set up a birdie for 65 and T18.

How often was he thinking about the Masters?

“Just about every shot,” he admitted. “It was a really solid round, I think it gives me a chance. We’re just going to have to see where the cards fall.”

Kim has been to the Masters once, in 2019. He was there by virtue of winning the John Deere Classic the previous season but he was also in the throes of what would turn out to be a years-long slump; he shot 76-78 at Augusta National and beat just four players.

Griffin has never played the Masters. He’s played just four major championships. And although he’s become a reliable presence on the PGA Tour, there’s something special about Augusta National. Even for the pros.

“It’s been a dream since I was a little kid to be there,” he said. “We’ll see what happens.”

Both Kim and Griffin then headed to Twitter to check the most reliable real-time source on the matter: a mysterious OWGR guru who goes by “Nosferatu.”

Later that evening, when the results finalized, Nosferatu released their findings: Kim was in. Griffin had needed one more birdie putt to fall. He wound up No. 51, less than a hundredth of a world ranking point outside the Masters margin.

Kim posted a celebratory message to Twitter. Griffin responded.

“That was crazy. Congrats man!! You’ve been on a heck of a run.”

He’s right. Kim has been playing the best golf of his career since the start of February; in eight starts he has seven made cuts, five top-15s and three top-sixes. He’s a deserving member of the field. As for Griffin? He still has one more way in. The winner this week in San Antonio gets the final spot at Augusta National.”

“Go win Valero and I’ll see you there!” Kim wrote back.

Sorry for the long excerpt, but Dylan calls is "Golf Stuff I Like", and the rest of us enjoy it as well.

Geoff is in Augusta mode and has much of interest at his latest Quad post, including these helpful architectural notes on changes: 

🚜 Architectural Changes Since Last Time: Re-grassed greens at the first, 15th and 16th, and maybe one other TBD. Players will need to take this added firmness into account (though no place on the planet manages to minimize new green firmness like ANGC). The 16th was not slated for re-grassing but damage from the remnants of Helene required new sod.

🌲Tree loss: Significant, particularly in a stretch from the 6th tee toward the first fairway. “The loss of a few trees is definitely noticeable,” said Rory McIlroy. “It might make it a little more susceptible to whatever breeze is blowing,” said Ben Crenshaw.

😢 Notable trees gone: Two behind the 11th green, one behind the 15th, tall pines at the third hole, and several around the backdrop to Amen Corner.

⛳️ New Super: Purdue graduate Brent Seyer takes over for Brad Owen who spent 27 years in the lead role. Seyer has been with the club for 15 years.

This is also helpful:

Lastly, Geoff introduces a new concept, Golf Architecture for Normal People.....  Sorry, just not seeing a lot of overlap in that Venn diagram.

But see if you enjoy his GANP take on ANGC:

Golf Architecture For Normal People presents three simple questions about the most vital design tenets and how they influence your course assessments. We’ll revisit those questions for this year’s major venues.

👨🏻‍🏫 Remember all the holes after you play? Well, (A) most of us won’t get “on” the course, and

(B) of course we can! Even without Augusta National being on television every year, most know Augusta National’s tendencies better than their home course. But the question as posed in the book—can you remember all the holes after playing—speaks to the variety and routing of holes. Does anyone doubt the recall ease for a layout that changes lengths and pace and has no two holes that look remotely similar? The memorability comes easily thanks to the Spartan use of bunkers, the lack of overforestation, clever incorporation of water hazards, and those otherworldly greens. Score: 10

No overforestation on that claustrophobic seventh fairway?   Still, I'll concede readily that the holes are distinctive and memorable, especially for an inland course.

😄 Could you play it every day and enjoy it? This is a slightly different question than, “could you play only this course every day for the rest of your life and enjoy it?” Naturally, that’s a yes, hindered only by the club being closed for five months a year. But in the case of Augusta National’s day-to-day fun, Jones and MacKenzie fulfilled their original vision, and despite some real hack jobs by Cliff, Hootie and Faz, the flow and fun of a round has survived. The only hesitancy in immediately answering “yes” to the never-ending pleasurability question centers around the club’s dated infatuation with two simple tee boxes on nearly all of the holes (6th and 16th being the exceptions). This lack of flexibility and the gargantuan task of hiking to back tees would be way too much for 99% of golfers. But the member tees are idyllic for most and you just have to watch a final round of the ANWA to see how beautifully the course flows from one hole to the next. Still, you’re not losing balls here and there are people who’d give up vital body functions to play it once. Score: 9

The two-tee constraint is something most folks are unaware of, though it's news to me that they relented on two holes.  When one tee has to contain Rory and the other can't overly tax Condoleeza Rice, where does everyone in the middle play from?

🦮 Is this a place you’d want to take your dog for a walk? What pooch wouldn’t want to roll around on carpeted rye grass? But this question is more about walkability, a relaxing sensibility,

the scenery, and other not as-easily-explainable feelings about the golf experience. The walkability from the greens to (member) tees is sensational. The underfoot factor, key to dog (and human) happiness, is brilliant. There are no weird crossings or cart paths to cross (though there are two service roads where shoes touch asphalt). Even the bridges at 13 green have grass on top. The scenery is otherworldly. The views across the property are always comforting, if not awe-inspiring in the early and late light. While ANGC is hilly for most dogs, the underfoot experience ends up feeling strangely gentle and relaxing. With over 1200 yards of walks to back tees, most pooches would prefer to park it under the Big Oak after 9 holes than keep claiming backwards. So for that indignity caused by regulatory laziness, ANGC gets hit with a half-point deduction from the Russian judge (dated reference, kids). Score: 9.5

A spectacular property, though you'd think it maybe slightly too hilly far many pooches.

Hope you enjoyed our first Augusta teaser.  Have a great weekend and we'll dive in again on Monday. 

Weekend Wrap - Snakebit Edition

No, not JT and his Snake Pit follies... Your humble blogger took a cheap, gratuitous swipe at a certain Norwegian golfer mired in desultory play.  Do I get results, or what?

The schedule for the neat-term is clear....there will be no blogging until the middle of next week.  Employee No. 2 and I are taking a quick, season-ending trip to Utah, then it officially transitions to golf season.  Sit tight, it's not like anything important will happen in Houston.

Back From The Dead - I've been of the opinion until yesterday that Viktor would not even be at Bethpage, so that will of course change.  But the winner doesn't seem to be declaring victory, does he?

When he turned up on the first tee Thursday at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, the 27-year-old Norwegian star was fresh off three consecutive missed cuts and wracked by deepening self-doubt.

“When you have no confidence and you don’t believe you’re going to play well that’s pretty tough,” Hovland said.

It was Sunday afternoon, and Hovland was speaking to the cameras in the incredulous tone of a man trying to wrap his head around what had just transpired.

Moments earlier, with a tap-in bogey on 18, he had completed a 4-under round of 67 to claim his first victory since the 2023 Tour Championship. He won the 2023 BMW Championship the week before. His 11-under total for the week put him one shot clear of Justin Thomas, who had surged to a three-shot lead with four holes remaining but slipped down the stretch while Hovland birdied two of his final three holes. Jacob Bridgeman finished in solo third, two off the pace at 9-under.

“It’s unbelievable to see that I could win,” Hovland said. “Because I honestly did not believe that I could do it this week.”

His lack of faith was based on mounting evidence, including a dispiriting showing at last week’s Players Championship, where he shot an 80 in the opening round. Battling his mechanics and his mindset, Hovland was an 11th-hour entry into the Valspar.

On a tight, tree-lined course that ranks among the toughest venues on Tour, Hovland leaned on his iron game to overcome an inconsistent driver — “I am still hitting a lot of disgusting shots,” he said— and scrape his way into a tie for the 54-hole lead. Even then, he wasn’t sure what to expect on Sunday.

I'm pleased to report that Luke Donald is once again able to get oxygen into his lungs.... At this juncture it would be hard to identify a player more important to Luke.  Their roster is so thin that one more stud makes an outsized difference, at least in the team play.

The Tour Confidential panel is of course around to add their invaluable insights ensure that your humble blogger can phone it in:

Viktor Hovland beat Justin Thomas by one to win the Valspar Championship on Sunday, his first victory since he won the BMW Championship and Tour Championship back to back in August 2023. It had been a struggle for him since then, and he missed his last three cuts entering this week. What was the difference at the Valspar? And are you a believer that he’s back? Or do you need to see more?

Josh Sens: It’s hard to believe he’s really back when Hovland himself doesn’t seem to think he is.

By his own admission, he is still hitting a lot of what he calls “disgusting” shots. But this week, he managed his game beautifully, especially down the stretch, leaning on his iron game and coming up clutch with the putter. I don’t mean to minimize the win. Winning any tournament is no small feat. But golf is just too fickle–and Hovland himself seems so committed to constant tinkering–to use this week as a predictor of what’s coming next.

Zephyr Melton: Echoing what Sens said above. Hovland won’t be fully “back” until he feels like he has full control of his swing. Sure he won this week, but it doesn’t sound like he’s content with where his game is at. This week is a great step in the right direction, but Hovland’s swing is far from a finished product.

Josh Berhow: He hit some really key irons late — which is exactly where he’s supposed to excel — to set up his last two birdies, but difficult to say this will turn the tide given how transparent he was afterward. His confidence doesn’t seem high — he did just shoot 80 last week — and he seemed surprised to win this thing. But a win like this might do wonders, so perhaps this is just the start of a string of strong finishes and a little more belief.

Next up, how many angels exactly can fit on the head of a pin....  I just don't know how to argue that he can win but isn't "back", whatever that might mean.  To me, though, the takeaway is how narrow the gap is between dominance and futility, yet we keep trying to pick based upon current form.

And talk about your angels on the head of pins...

Thomas held a two-stroke lead late but missed fairways and bogeyed 16 and 18. As someone who hasn’t won since May 2022, is he the headlining pro who needs one most? Or does that honor belong to someone else — Homa? Spieth? etc. — on the PGA Tour?

Sens: Thomas may be in a victory drought, but he’s also won more times (15) than any player other except Rory since 2016. Getting this close has got to feel promising for him on some level. I’d give the “honor” to Spieth, who has been winless for even longer than Thomas, and has arguably fallen farther from his peak than his good friend.

Melton: JT may be in a winless drought, but his game is in a far better spot than Homa and, to a lesser extent, Spieth. I’m sure he’d much rather be holding a trophy tonight rather than stewing on the “what-ifs,” but he’s not nearly as lost as those other two. The next JT win feels close.

Berhow: I’d argue Homa needs it most right now, since he is currently in a very similar spot to Viktor (before he won Sunday). Thomas and Spieth have winless streaks extending a little longer than Homa, although Thomas seems close. Few guys have the firepower he does when he’s on. He barely made the cut at the Valspar and fought to the top of the leaderboard. I think good things are coming for him.

It's a fun question, but I'm not inclined to venture too deep into the long grass.  Spieth's last spiral down was at least in part injury-related, Homa and Hovland have been so futile that they weren't even sniffing cuts, but we see how quickly that can swing.  Spieth and Homa might prove to be dilemmas for Keegan, but there's so much golf to come that it's not worth diving in this early.

I do want to add, though, that I hope Viktor had words to this effect in his post-win presser:

"I'd Like to thank Justin Thomas, without whom this wouldn't have been possible."

Explanation here. 

I have a couple of submissions for shot of the week, first from Billy Ho:

Billy Horschel goes lefty and hits a great shot. 🤯pic.twitter.com/YbY23zdfFN

— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) March 23, 2025

Made the putt for birdie as well.

And Patton Kizzire:

Unreal hang time on this putter punt 👏 pic.twitter.com/WuQvbfr0el

— Skratch (@Skratch) March 20, 2025

Very impressive hang time...

And let's not forget Adam Hadwin:

Received this via DM: Adam Hadwin learning the consequences of his actions on Friday at the Valspar Championship. pic.twitter.com/ZiitjOdao3

— Alex Gelman (@agsnetworks) March 22, 2025

Of course, as regular readers of this blog will know, that last guy needs to be careful because he's married to the best Twitter-slinger on Tour:

Through sickness and health. Amen. pic.twitter.com/3NsMJA3eHH

— Jessica Hadwin (@jessicahadwin) March 22, 2025

Girl. Got. Game.  The TC guys had some fun with two of these (and I could have also included Sahith Theegala):

Who had the best — or most cringeworthy — anger-management moment at the Valspar? Patton Kizzire’s putter punt or Adam Hadwin’s sprinkler mishap?

Sens; Kizzire’s putter punt was a novel move. At least, I’d never seen one like it before. But for keystone cop comedy and comeuppance, I give the nod to Hadwin triggering the sprinkler’s wrath.

Melton: The putter punt was great theater, but certainly some embarrassing behavior coming from a seasoned Tour pro. Hadwin’s sprinkler mishap seemed more like bad luck than anything else. I’ll give an honorable mention to Spieth for unleashing an aggressive f-bomb on Saturday. He got his money’s worth with that one.

Berhow: The PPP — Patton Putter Punt — had impressive hang time. He’s gonna shank that thing more times than not. If you are going to punt a putter, you better make good contact. He did. Hadwin’s was definitely more embarrassing.

Thank God the boys were acting up a wee bit, otherwise it would have been a dreary week.  

Before we move on, a quickie Florida-swing summary:

The Florida swing is officially over. What did you learn?

Sens: That Rory McIlroy is going to win the Masters. (or not).

Melton: Rory is still a dog and Russell Henley is going to be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team. Plus, I learned who Joe Highsmith was!

Berhow: Scottie Scheffler is not yet 100 percent following the hand injury. When will he be, and how much can he win when he’s not 100 percent? These are questions we don’t have answers to yet.

I certainly agree that Scheffler's play has made me wonder if there's any lingering effects to the injury, but perhaps his roiling frustration is the bigger surprise.  Rory feels like the only top player who has shown any form, but is that a good thing for him?  Or he is he better  off coming in just above the tree line....

It Would Take A Heart Of Stone... - It just so happens that I have this tab open forever:

Sergio Garcia is willing to jump through countless hoops for chance to play in one more Ryder Cup

 At a certain point he was willing to do anything except pay those DP World Tour fines, though that has seemingly now been done:

Still, none of that is deterring the 2017 Masters champion. Before playing this week in the PIF Saudi International, Garcia re-joined the DP World Tour and paid all of the fines levied on him when he played in LIV events directly opposite of those on what was, for most of his career, his home circuit. That left him only needing to serve nine weeks of suspension from events on the European Tour. By his own reckoning, Garcia will be unable to play in a DP World Tour event until the Bahrain tournament at the end of next month.

That item dates back to early December, the implication being that he might have gotten in more starts had he not dawdled in paying those fines.   So, perhaps with some strong starts in those events he can play himself into the Majors....  Oops!

Sergio Garcia came to Macau this weekend looking to play his way into “his favorite” major. In the end, a three-foot birdie putt stood between Garcia and a spot in the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush.

But golf is a brutal sport. Garcia missed the short putt and left the Asian Tour’s International Series Macau event with a fourth-place finish and not much else.

While Garcia failed to qualify for the Open via a top-three finish in Macau, his fellow LIV mates Carlos Ortiz (first), Patrick Reed (second) and Jason Kokrak (third) all punched their ticket to Portrush. Garcia’s three-foot birdie putt on the last would have had him finish tied with Kokrak and earn the final spot in the Open via a countback system based on his world rankings points. Garcia is currently 513 in the world, while Kokrak is 775 due to LIV’s inability to earn Official World Golf Rankings points at LIV events.

Patrick vs. Sergio?  Man, talk about a devil's dilemma....

But the idea of Sergio paying those fines and not making the Ryder Cup team brings a smile to my face.... Although Sergio back at Bethpage could be good fun as well.

Eamon's Take - the incendiary Eamon Lynch assesses the current state of PGA Tour-LIV negotiations with his characteristic astute eye.  His header will point you towards his thinking:

Lynch: If the PGA Tour wants reunification, it should do one thing — wait

Eamon's discussion of the party of the second part is, methinks, the most interesting part thereof:

A month has passed since the White House meeting that was expected to deliver a deal, but which instead produced a barely civil face-off. The Tour presented a proposal valuing LIV at $500 million, a comically generous grant for an entity that spends cash faster than a returning submarine crew in a brothel (though at least the sailors get something in return). PIF’s governor, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, was insulted by that assessment and the summit resulted in a setback rather than a settlement.

There are several possible reasons for Al-Rumayyan’s obstinacy. Perhaps he felt ambushed in Washington. Maybe he’s facing pressure at home and is desperate to show a win. Or pride got the better of him. Or he believes the fee-taking leeches who assure him that he’s created a revolutionary product with a lucrative future. Or he knows that entering LIV into any kind of investment partnership will crystalize his multi-billion dollar folly.

The other day, I asked an insider about Al-Rumayyan’s stiff-arming proposal after proposal from the Tour (PIF hasn’t submitted a single overture of its own during the negotiation process). “Will there ever be a day of reckoning?” came the reply. “Really, I can’t think of anyone who’s been lied to more than him. That the idea was good. That the product is good. That it’s going really well. He needs someone he trusts to tell him the truth, that it’s just not working.”

OK, are you finished laughing yet?  There is no doubt something profound in Eamon's take, but there's also some huge gaps.  I was reminded of that laughable Kinsey Report, which made Al-Rumayyan look like a guy that wanted to be lied to.  Or, more likely, wanted to do what he wanted to do, and just needed something in the file to support it like any mid-level bureaucrat.

Whatever governs the governor’s attitude, sentiment has hardened across the table. Rising broadcast ratings and a run of sponsors re-upping have restored a little swagger to the formerly defensive PGA Tour. Fear of Al-Rumayyan’s checkbook is lessened too. LIV hasn’t signed any major talent since Jon Rahm 16 months ago, and the only three players who could impact things — Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler — are not only staying put, but have made public comments that were at best lukewarm about the prospect of a deal. A year ago the foremost question for the Tour was how to stem the erosion of its product, now that question is what can actually be gained from a PIF deal at all?

The answer, of course, is money and power, which is what executives really mean when they talk about the “reunification” of golf, even as they frame it as something fans demand. Both tours — PGA and DP World — want Saudi investment dollars and they don’t want the major championships to hold all the influence, which has been the by-product of the best players only competing against each other four times a year. Comrades Monahan and Kinnings can’t be thrilled to see assets developed on their circuits largely being used to benefit four other organizations.

I believe Eamon grossly overstates the positives in that first 'graph.  The ratings look good mostly in comparison to a dreadful 2024 ( in at least some weeks they've been below 2023's numbers), and there has been some decent sponsorship action as well.

Eamon states that they want Saudi cash, but my thoughts are that they might well need Saudi cash, as the one critical data point neither of us has access to is the Tour's burn rate.  My operative assumption is they bur through SSG's $1.5 billion large quicker than we can imagine....

But let me also focus you on that last bit from Eamon, which I think is critical The LIV confrontation has exposed the vulnerability of the Tour, which is perceived as the most important golf Tour on the planet, but doesn't actually control the four most important weeks of the year.  Tat's a profoundly week position, but Eamon is correct that the civil war in golf has only enhanced to position of those four other organizations.  Ironic that, eh?

Exit Strategy - Far too early for this, and yet....

We’ll get into Masters storylines and picks more in the coming weeks, but with a hat tip to March Madness tipping off, who is your early Cinderella pick for Augusta National?

Sens: I wouldn’t exactly call it a Cinderella pick, but Joaquin Niemann, LIV’s hottest player this season, would count as something of an upstart win.

Melton: I need to see a top 20 in a major from Niemann (he still doesn’t have one!) before I start picking him. I’ll keep showing love to Russell Henley. Two major top 10s to cap last season and an API win already this year. As they say, he’s trending.

Berhow: I love Niemann at Augusta, but since he’s already taken, how about Keegan Bradley as a long shot? Hasn’t missed a cut in seven starts this season. Five times, he’s been 20th or better. Not a ton of success at Augusta, but he’s finished T22 and T23 in his last two starts. There’s lots to like for someone you can find at +18000 to win. Plus, Bradley contending would make for juicy Ryder Cup captaincy storylines.

Hold on just a second.  You're picking the best player in the world as your Cinderella?  because we know he wouldn't lie to us... 

We'll get to Augusta in due course.... Have a great week.