1. The final Match Play.As I understand it, there is currently no plan to have match play on the PGA Tour’s 2024 schedule. That stinks, because this event provides the most exciting weekday golf of any on the schedule. I hope there’s a way to make match play make business sense at some point going forward, but for now: Enjoy this one!
It's an awkward event for TV, one that I've long called the upside-down tournament, because the best days are those weekdays that feature thirty-two matches. Your humble blogger still pines for the feral single-elimination format, which made Wednesday one of the best golf-watching days on the calendar.
The event has always been awkward in Austin, the date specifically. A little too close to Augusta to make the guys trudge through seven matches, but my latest epiphany is that the event should be in a portion of the schedule where Golf Channel would air the weekend matches in lieu of NBC or CBS. because, while once in a blue moon we get a weekend match of interest, the reality is that the weekends pretty much suck.
But we seem to be living in an elite-player-driven dystopia, so what do the big boys think of it all? Big Boy No. 1:
"It's too bad that this is the last edition of this tournament," the World No. 2 said on Tuesday. "I obviously love match play, so I'm hoping maybe it's just a one-year deal and we get a match play event back on the schedule."Rahm has made it out of his group in three of his five Match Play attempts, and went as far as the final in 2017, when he lost 1 up to Dustin Johnson. He also holds a 4-3-1 Ryder Cup record that includes an iconic singles win against Tiger Woods in 2018, so it's no surprise that he loves match play and looks forward to coming to Austin every year."As a player it's just an opportunity to play kind of a different golf," he said. "It's really the only time throughout the year besides maybe the Ryder Cup where you're playing truly against the person in front of you, which is much more relatable to every sport we play in the world ... it's a lot more aggressive. You see more birdies. You see a lot of things happen."
We can't have that now, can we? Big Boy No. 2:
Rahm is not alone. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who made his first WGC-Match Play final in2021 before winning last year, called Austin one of his favorite places to come each year, and the Texas alum took a predictably plainspoken approach to the appeal of the format."I like the simplicity of it," he said. "All you have to do is just go out there and try and beat the guy that's in front of you and if you don't, you lose, and if you beat him, you win."
So, what would be the antonym of recency bias? That would be classifying this guy as a Big Boy:
"I would love to see there still be a match-play event at some point," Rickie Fowler said, explaining that he liked single elimination better than the current setup. "Match play, other than what we see in team events, it's fun. We obviously wouldn't want it every week, just because of how volatile it is, and it's not always the guy that's playing the best that week .. but yeah, I love match play."Fowler points to his 6-and-5 victory against Phil Mickelson in the second round in 2011 as his fondest memory of the Match Play.
Of course he's still bitterly-clinging to 12-year old memories, but whatever happened to that Phil guy?
I wonder, though, if this is really true:
The players who spoke on Tuesday were universal in their enjoyment of match play, but understood its drawbacks, both for the competitors and from a corporate angle. On the playing side, luck plays an enormous role in determining the winner—you can play great and lose, or play poorly and win—and a more consistent style of player won't find it as easy to register a high finish. (The current format, as Rahm pointed out, can lead to some confusion, as when a player might have to face someone he already defeated in a playoff in order to advance.) On the corporate side, any format dictates a dwindling field over the weekend, which can lead to dead time on television and lower appeal for sponsors who count on big weekend fields for clients.For these players, though, the good outweighed the bad, and there was a certain regret, with maybe even a tinge of melancholy, at the prospect of this tournament coming to an end. Rahm, remembering years when he played well but didn't advance, and other years when he didn't feel in top form but managed to beat those in front of him, summed up the strangeness and appeal of the format best."That's the beauty of match play," he said.
It's a member-owned organization, so if there's "universal" demand for a match-play event.... well, I'm not so sure it's quite that universal. Alan Shipnuck has a new mailbag for us, and cuts right to the chase:
Do you sense the players are disappointed the Tour may no longer have a match play event, or are they not that bothered? @tonyjdearBoth. Everyone loves the idea of a match play event…until it is conducted. The players always hated that when the Match Play was single-elimination, they could have an embarrassingly brief one-day work week. Sponsors and TV execs anguished over losing so many stars early in the week. The solution was the round-robin pool play, which guaranteed every player three matches but robbed the event of its win-or-go-home essence and corresponding tension. It’s a symbolic loss, but the top 64 players on Tour will gladly sacrifice the Match Play for a no-cut designated event, which is essentially what has happened.
Sounds about right, the irony of this being the last WGC being lost on them. The WGCs were a dreary lot, small fields and no cute generating little buzz, so enjoy your Groundhog Day.
In the "Who ya got? thread, I can't help but notice a certain singularity:
Dell Technologies Match Play picks 2023: Why we're chasing a Patrick Cantlay win
And this:
Action Report: Patrick Cantlay popular pick for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
And, while Golf.com throws out nine names, this was first among equals:
Patrick Cantlay (20-1)Cantlay does not have many weaknesses in his game. He is second on Tour in birdie average, No. 1 in par-4 and par-5 scoring, 45th in SG: putting and 38th in scrambling. He also has an excellent history on Dye courses and is second-best in this field in SG: total on Dye courses over the last 36 rounds. The bad news is that he hasn’t ever made it out of the group stage in this event. This time around, Cantlay is the top seed in his group, over Brian Harman, Nick Taylor and K.H. Lee. On paper, he should be able to handle those three players and make it to the weekend. His career match-play record, here in Austin and also in President’s Cup and Ryder Cup play, is 8-5-2.
I get it! After all, who can resist a terrific penis?
The funny thing is that Cantlay seems to this observer as a guy likely happy to avoid this event in the future. I don't pretend to know the guy, but my guess is that he's far too comfortable in his routines to embrace the mayhem.... Not to mention losing to that 58-seed.
LIV Scat - Mostly just Q&A's from Alan, but there is this follow-up on viewership (or, more accurately, the lack thereof):
The viewership reports are starting to roll through for the second LIV Golf League event of theseason, and early numbers aren’t great for the Saudi Arabia-backed circuit.The Sports Business Journal, citing a source with numbers from Nielsen, reported last week’s LIV Golf Tucson event had an average of 274,000 viewers on the CW for Sunday’s final round from Gallery Golf Club in Marana, Arizona, after an average of 284,000 viewers for Saturday’s second round. At LIV Golf Mayakoba, the season opener last month, the CW averaged 286,000 viewers for Saturday’s second round and 291,000 for Sunday’s final round. Friday’s opening rounds are only available via the CW app and other digital streams.
Can you feel the game growing? Though this might be the more discouraging bit:
Outside of the viewership, the SBJ report also claimed that 24 percent of homes – or 29 million – in the United States were unable to watch LIV Golf Tucson on television because their local CW affiliate did not carry the coverage in the 1-6 p.m. ET window.
That's quite the vote of confidence, no? Gee, Buffy or PReed? Quite the conundrum....
Perhaps more importantly, some background on those viewership numbers quoted by LIV:
LIV Golf plans to release its own data on viewership later this week, which will predictably look different from the SBJ report citing just Nielsen numbers. The same thing happened with the Mayakoba viewership.The league signed a multi-year revenue-sharing TV deal with the CW in January that will see its events be distributed across both not just CW affiliates, but also various Nexstar properties. It’s unclear how many watched on Nexstar stations or whether any Nexstar outlets carried LIV Golf Tucson in areas where CW affiliates elected not to. Competing with the opening weekend of the NCAA basketball tournaments surely doesn’t help the viewership numbers, either.It’s also important to note which numbers are used in television reports. LIV reported 3.2 million total viewers across the three days in its season opener, while the Nielsen numbers cited above are average-minute audience, the industry standard. LIV is also using iSpot, a TV ad measurement and analytics company that offers a different way to measure viewership compared to Nielsen ratings.
Measure? Obscure? Whatever....
Alan had this from his week in Tucson:
When at the LIV event, did you get a sense from any player that it could be the beginning of the end? @The_Real_DANo, just the opposite: Those guys are all-in. There was already an us-against-them mentality on that tour, and the new emphasis on the team model has only increased the players’ buy-in. Believe it or not, it appears they’re having fun out there.
Can you say Stockholm Syndrome?
But the interesting thing here is that Alan's own reporting on that player's meeting revealed quite a bit of whining and griping, so there does appear to be a disturbance in the force....
But one of my major takeaways thus far is how poorly LIVs show ponies have played:
What do you think is the singular biggest thing that could put LIV on the mainstream news cycle for its golf product (vs. political/disruptive news so far)? @rchav9Only five LIV golfers can move the needle, roughly in this order: Phil Mickelson, Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka. Maybe Patrick Reed, but usually for the wrong reasons. LIV badly needs these guys to play well, and one or more to dominate. Most of all, it needs a few of its biggest names to contend at the majors. If one of them wins the Masters, the volume gets turned all the way up on this thing.
Bryson? heh, that's a good one...
Let's veer off on a tangent, as Sunday night's Tour Confidential panel had a Bryson query:
Danny Lee won LIV Golf’s event in Tucson in a playoff, but 16 strokes back and in a tie for 44th place was Bryson DeChambeau, who was also 24th at LIV’s first event of the year and never finished better than 10th at any LIV event last season (although he did tie for 8th at The Open). Not playing on the PGA Tour has led to less spotlight for DeChambeau, who not long ago was a fixture on headlines across golf websites everywhere. Is this too small a sample size to say something is up with his game? And do you expect him to be a threat at the Masters in two weeks?Colgan: I think it’s fair to wonder what happened to Bryson, whose every moment used to receive the breathless attention of the golf world — an attention he seemed to resent. In that regard, he may be one of the few golfers who benefitted from LIV’s obscurity. But his game is a long way from the U.S. Open winning form of 2020. It has been for some time.Dethier: Would it surprise me to see Bryson contend at Augusta? Yeah, it would. It just doesn’t seem like his stroke-play golf is in top form; he’s never finished better than 10th in a LIV event and even MC’d at the Saudi International at a course that should set up fairly well for him. He’ll be a fascinating follow for an abundance of reasons, but one such reason is that we just don’t know what we’re going to get.Bastable: Gosh, it wasn’t all that long we were speculating about what Augusta National would need to do to “Bryson-proof” its course. Now, the same guy we thought might win the Masters by 10 in the fall of 2020 has dealt with a litany of injuries and devolved into a questionable LIV investment. DeChambeau has never finished top-20 at Augusta, a streak he’s on the fast track to extend in April.
Why is this remotely surprising? Except for Cam, each LIV defection to me spoke to a lack of confidence in their games, hence the need for guaranteed money...
Of course, this is the money question:
Will anyone discuss golfer acquisition for LIV moving forward? How can they enhance their current lineup? Will another name PGA Tour guy jump? @mcdermott_randyThere are two key political/judicial factors: the World Ranking resolution and the ongoing arbitration case in the U.K. LIV folks have been told to expect a OWGR ruling by July. I think LIV will get points simply because the World Ranking as an institution will act in its own best interests. From its website, it has the following mission statement: “The objective of OWGR is to devise, maintain, review, update, administer and promote the recognition of a system that fairly ranks the relative performances of male professional golfers participating in the leading golf tournaments throughout the world.”It says nothing there about turf wars between rival tours. Love or hate LIV, Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Abe Ancer, Talor Gooch and sundry others are undoubtedly among the best players in the world. If the OWGR continues to exclude LIV, Mark Broadie or some other sharpie will simply formulate a new algorithm that becomes the gold standard. Don’t forget, the World Ranking was invented by superagent Mark McCormack as a way to make more appearance money for his players. It is not sacrosanct. It can be replaced. So once LIV gets World Ranking points, it will obviously become easier to attract PGA Tour players. And if litigious LIV golfers win their appeal against the European Tour’s ban, that will change the landscape dramatically, allowing them to play all over the world, and also in the Ryder Cup. That would put immense pressure on the PGA of America to alter its criteria for Team USA, allowing LIV folks on that squad too.So let’s see how things play out in the coming months. But if golfers can play in the majors, play in the Ryder Cup, earn World Ranking points and get guaranteed money upfront, LIV clearly becomes more attractive.
I remain amazed at how in the tank Alan is for the bonecutters.... It must be that Abu Ghraib continues to play on his conscience....
What's missing from his answer? Any acknowledgement of the extent to which the LIV events have royally sucked. Oh, the PGA Tour has no shortage of issues, but I've been reliably informed that it's product vs. product, and theirs is comically inept....
But I continue to believe that Alan is dramatically misreading those potential scenarios. Yes, we're all anxiously awaiting that European arbitrator's decision, which is very much a wild card. But access to Euro Tour events will only get them so far, as it's functionally a Korn Ferry feeder tour at this point.
But does he seriously think that the PGA of America would break with the PGA Tour on Ryder Cup eligibility? And that Ja would still make his boys available? For a European home game? I don't think so....
At the risk of my readers nodding off...
Will LIV have to do some sort of revenue sharing to make sure teams remain viable financially? If a team isn’t winning enough, how can they afford the expenses of global travel? In other words, are the Cleeks destined to be the Pittsburgh Pirates? #askalan @jjgottschalkLotsa questions about the LIV business model after my stories from Mexico and Tucson. LIV has extended each team a line of credit to be used as needed for this year and into next. In 2024 the franchises will go up for sale, and if/when they sell, the owners will be footing the bills. Selling the teams is a key to LIV being a viable business. Let’s say they sell for an average of $100 million. That sounds like a lot, but there are tons of bored billionaires who want to buy their way into professional sports. Almost none of them will get an NFL or NBA franchise, which cost at least a couple billion dollars. But if they love golf, LIV could be a fun consolation prize; you can party with Dustin and Paulina on their boat or have Phil play in your member-guest. For nerdy rich dudes who can’t break 90, this kind of access is probably a bargain at only 100 milli! LIV owns 75 percent of each team while the players (mostly captains) have the rest of the equity.So in this thought experiment, LIV gets $75 million on each sale. Times 12, that’s close to a billion dollars, which is more or less what will have been spent on purses and signing bonuses and operational costs last year and this year. Now the PIF has gotten back its initial investment. Let’s say LIV’s operating costs are $500 million a year. Going forward it would need to get that back in TV deals, ticket sales, corporate suites, pro-ams and the usual revenue streams. This might be doable if LIV can cut TV deals with SKY Sports and the Japanese, Korean, Aussie, South African and Mexican versions of ESPN. There are a lot of ifs and optimism built into these scenarios, but I think you can construct a theoretical case to where LIV breaks even, which would be a huge win considering the ridiculous burn rate at the outset.
Hey, if Silicon Valley Bank gets bailed out, why not the Cleeks?
First and foremost, Alan, I had been reliably informed that each franchise would be worth a cool billion, so you might have offended the scary mofos.... Best to get your affairs in order.
But those fever-dream Sky and Asian TV contracts amuse when the CW wouldn't put $1 on the line for the U.S. rights. It all presupposes interest and viewership at a level unsupported by reality....
This is interesting as well, although they'll need to be viable in 2026 for it to matter:
LIV won’t gear back the ball. They will promote the same ball us mortals use. Big marketing point for LIV. @Deadcenter12Yes, that would be a clever way to endear themselves to the mythical casual fan who, anecdotally, hates bifurcation. (In reality, I’m not sure how many care.) But all of the major championships will be played under whatever rules the USGA sets, so if LIV renounces the new ball—but the PGA Tour doesn’t—that would put LIVers at a monumental disadvantage at the majors. Having a chance to win major championships will trump pandering to non-conformist fans. I think LIV will wait to see what the PGA Tour does and then mirror that.
I suppose we should at least hear from Fred before declaring that all majors will use the rolled-back ball...
But Alan seems to envision quite the schizophrenic PGA of America, no? He assumes they'll go with the crowd on the roll-back buy dissent on LIV players in the Ryder Cup. I can't imagine both those things happening but, then again, I couldn't imagine Sergio spitting in a cup...
One last bit:
Do the Green Coats have it in them to mix pairings with LIV and PGA Tour guys? It would be so juicy to have a Rory/Cam or Tiger/Phil pairing for the first two rounds. Once we get to Sunday, though… the scenes around 18 green if a LIV guy is in contention will be something. How’s it play out? @EddieK619
Rory/Reed would be even better! And, gawd, Tiger/Phil would be epic, not to mention Freddie and Phil. Alas, that’s not happening. The lords of Augusta are not interested in creating any sideshows. The polarizing LIV players will be paired with the most innocuous, easygoing Tour players and as many amateurs as possible. Everything the Masters does this time around will be about defusing tensions. If a LIV player is in the hunt I expect the reception will be a little tepid but ultimately respectful, because no one wants to get kicked out of the Masters for life for bad behavior. Might be a little ruder/rowdier at the ensuing majors, though.
Probably better not to give them such an opportunity... Though if Rory were paired with Reed, I'd be looking to short him.
More Alan - A couple of non-Liv bits for that mailbag:
Talk me out of these and/or rank them in order of least likely to most likely
Masters — Rory; PGA — Spieth; U.S. Open — Rickie; Open — Xander @BlulinskiRory McIlroy is a top-10 machine at the Masters but has accumulated so much scar tissue along the way that he’s approaching the point of no return. (That he’s messing around with new putters two weeks ahead of Augusta does not inspire confidence.) Big, bad Oak Hill seems ill-suited to Jordan’s flighty play; he has looked so shaky in crunch time lately I’m not sure he is ready to win anywhere. Rickie Fowler is trending, but after all these years lost in the wilderness it’s a big ask for him to win the national Open. Xander Schauffele at Hoylake seems like the best bet here.
Rickie? Geez, some dreams die a hard death.... I can't decide which of his picks is the more ridiculous.
But obviously the one that grabs our interest right now is the first, and I've been a consistent skeptic that Rory can get it done. But I first need to see a soft Augusta to like his chances at all.
Are you up for another Alan fever dream:
If the USGA or PGA went with a model of 8-9 courses to be rotated through every 10 years (the other 1-2 being wild cards), what would your preferred rotation look like? And what 2-3 wild cards would you like to include? #AskAlan @thestables1896The USGA dabbles in new venues, but I want it to lean in on the classics. Meanwhile, the PGA of America needs to differentiate itself, and the easiest way would be an emphasis on new, buzz-worthy sites. I’d love to see these roots:USGA: Pebble Beach, Winged Foot, Pinehurst, Oakmont, Oakland Hills, The Country Club, Los Angeles C.C. (it’s gonna be a smash hit), Shinnecock Hills, Olympic, BethpageWild cards: Myopia Hunt, Merion, Cherry Hills, Chicago GCPGA: Pine Valley, Prairie Dunes, Pacific Dunes, Sand Hills, Friar’s Head, Whistling Straits, Southern Hills, Bandon Trails, Ocean CourseWild cards: Chambers Bay, National Golf Links, Quail Hollow
The USGA list is mostly chalk, except for Bethpage which is firmly in the PGA orbit with it's 2025 Ryder Cup.
But the PGA list is empty virtue signaling, given that most are too small and too remote to host elite players, unless they roll the ball back to the featherie... I like Pacific Dunes as much as the next guy, but they likely want more than twelve fans on the golf course....
Q: No matter how you slice it, the proposed ball rollback is a rule aimed at only a few thousand golfers worldwide. Why are the governing bodies so interested in policing the pro game? It has no impact on amateurs or the courses we play. #askalan @kevin_demskyYou just eloquently explained why the USGA has decided to bifurcate the rules! No one is going to touch your ball, or mine. We can keep chasing the distance we desperately need. But professional golf is a powerful force in our game—it inspires and educates and entertains weekend hackers. Alas, modern, tech-infused athletes have gained too much of an advantage over their ancient playing fields. The USGA is trying to slow the inexorable distance gains and restore some balance in how the pro game is played. I think it’s the right call.
It's a longer argument than that, but fair enough....
But here's where it gets interesting:
Can you please comment (go ahead and ramble) on Tiger’s chances once the ball changes for the majors?? He’ll still be under 50 and playing with a shape-y ball!! Getting goosie bumpies. @tommy_trackerThis is an underrated and still unknown piece of the rollback: How much more with the new balls spin compared to the current versions that have minimal curve? If it’s a lot, that certainly helps an artiste like Tiger, especially because he grew up playing that game while all these twenty-something hot shots came of age in the Pro-V1 era. I mean, if we went to balatas for this year’s Masters, Tiger would have to be the favorite, despite everything.
Which only scratches at the surface, though they have been vague about whether their ball will spin more. The whole point is that the elite game now has devalued ball-striking, and we want the game to be more than a putting contest.
That'll have to sate you for the moment, as I need to get on with my day. Enjoy the match play, asa you might not see another anytime soon.
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