Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Tuesday Trifles

I checked my Magic 8-ball about Wednesday/Thursday blogging, and it responded that the outlook is cloudy.  So, we better cover everything now....
 
Prez Cup Perorations - Geoff has a couple of longer-form Quad items we'll use today, as his blog has devolved into mostly a place to post his Quad Links.  In honor of this week's festivities, he does a deep dive into the obvious solution for this weak-sister of an event:

Adding The World's Best Women Would Jump-Start The Presidents Cup

Gee, where might you have heard that idea previously?

This week’s Presidents Cup was hobbling into overused Quail Hollow long before Saudi Arabia’s LIV Golf siphoned off top International players.

With Team USA winning 11 of 13 editions and a format borrowing too heavily from the Ryder Cup, the Presidents has long needed a rethink. There may be no better time to incorporate the best American and international women to create golf’s premier mixed-team event and, potentially, the most compelling Cup event of them all.

The Presidents Cup was the PGA Tour’s answer to the lucrative Ryder Cup, surviving on the thrills provided by team match play along with moments of grand sportsmanship and two dreamy trips to Royal Melbourne. But its format only deviates from the Ryder Cup with a Thursday start and holding captain’s selections on live TV. Couple that lack of differentiation with American dominance, and the Presidents Cup promise has all but cratered.

I find much of the reaction to this event a bit hard to understand, as its major failing seems to be that it doesn't have Seve.  I think you'll agree, it's a hard problem to fix, although I could see the Weekend at Seve's posters  for sure.

We'll have a comment or two on the format, but there's nothing especially wrong with it.  Team match play rocks, but folks seem to forget that the last two matches held outside the U.S. were highly competitive and exciting, marred only by the zero-dark-thirty airing times.

A little historical perspective might help as well:

The Ryder Cup survived much longer with a similar lop-sided scenario only to be boosted in 1979 by expanding the GB&I team to include all of Europe. But the matches were less visible then compared to the current Presidents Cup, which has a network television partner and audiences around the planet. The event is positioned to succeed if only there was a genuine reason for the “rest of the world” to care.

And, irony alert, why was the Prez Cup conceived in the first place?  The Tour had quite obviously effed-up in leaving the Ryder Cup with the PGA of America when those organizations split up in the 1960's, but it was just a sleepy exhibition of no import.  But there was another reason, one specific player that was not eligible to participate, yet was threatening to start some some sort of World Golf Tour....  Anyone remember who that was?  Anyone?  Bueller?

Here Geoff breaks a little news:

Ensuring the event’s future has also been a topic in the hallways of PGA Tour headquarters. According to two sources who have knowledge of informal pre-pandemic discussions held with the LPGA Tour, consideration was given to expanding the Presidents Cup to include the world’s best women. Those sources tell The Quadrilateral that exploratory conversations did not go very far because the LPGA’s biennial USA vs. Europe Solheim Cup was played in the same odd-numbered years as the Presidents.

The COVID-19 global pandemic pushed the Ryder and Presidents Cup back a year, thereby ending the date conflict. The Presidents Cup is now scheduled for even years, while the Solheim remains an odd-numbered year event.

Naysayers—a.k.a. LIV Golf’s robust army of bots and lonely online bored basement dwellers—will claim that upending the current Presidents Cup format would be demeaning to the world’s best women and a sure sign LIV has once again forced the PGA Tour to get better. Nonsense.

Demeaning?  Partnering with Justin Thomas is somehow demeaning to Nellie Korda?  I suspect that Nellie would crawl across broken glass to do so...

Geoff spares nu bullets in his listing of the beenfits:

The mixed-Cup concept is even more sensible in 2022 than it was a few years ago. Consider:
  • A mixed Presidents Cup would fulfill a promise of the PGA Tour/LPGA Tour “alliance” that has not produced anything of fan interest.
  • There would be no damage to the Solheim’s USA vs. Europe event. A mixed Presidents Cup might even increase interest in other LPGA team events.
  • The LPGA’s UL International Crown has been on hold since 2020 and this would help offset its potential demise. That biennial women's professional team event was played in even-numbered years and featured eight national teams of four players each
  • The women are more famous than the men in several Asian markets.
  • Adding the International women would level the Presidents Cup playing field and create more potential for excitement. (And there’s some bulletin board material America’s world No. 2 Nelly Korda did not need!)
  • The International men would be boasted this week by the play of Korea’s Jin Young Ko and Australia’s Minjee Lee, while the American squad would be more compelling to watch with the Korda sisters or recent major winner Jennifer Kupcho instead Billy Horschel and Kevin Kisner.
  • The format possibilities would depend on the size of teams. But there is the potential for every session to be different, from traditional foursomes and four-ball, to expanded singles, modified foursomes (with both players hitting tee shots) or even scramble on the table. A mix of disciplines would only add intrigue and also begin laying the groundwork for a long overdue Olympic golf format reboot incorporating mixed teams. 
  • The IOC’s addition of mixed gender events gave the pandemic-diminished Tokyo and Beijing Games a boost with more events planned.
  • Mixed formats have roots in the every day game, which continues to thrive thanks to a healthy increase in female participation.
  • A remastered Presidents Cup incorporating the world’s best women is likely to become the most watched mixed-competition in the world of sports.

This is so obvious a move, that we could consider it malpractice to not have implemented it yet.  In fact, when the LIV story hit I thought Jay still had an opportunity to make a change for this year's event, having seen the entire South African contingent immediately jump.

I wouldn't be so quick to conclude that there would be no diminishment of the Solheim Cup, though any lack of sustainability there is quite clearly a pre-existing condition.  That event has been sustained by a seemingly genuine strain of bad blood between the two teams, but that only helps so much when the balance of power in women's golf lies elsewhere.

Geoff goes so far as to lay out the rosters:

Had the 2022 Presidents Cup teams included six men and six women, the squads would have looked like this based on points earned (men) and Rolex rankings (women).

USA: Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Nelly Korda (2), Lexi Thompson (7), Jennifer Kupcho (11), Jessica Korda (13), Danielle Kang (20), Meghan Khang (27).

International: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Mito Pereira, Corey Conners, Jin Young Ko (No. 1, Korea), Minjee Lee (3rd, Australia), Lydia Ko (4th, New Zealand), Brooke Henderson (5th, Canada), Atthaya Thitikul (6th, Thailand) and In Gee Chun (8th, Korea).

But no room for Billy Ho?  Win-win, baby!  Given that Jay was sitting there unsure about Hdeki, that would have seemed an obvious risk mitigation strategy (although I haven't so much as checked the LPGA schedule).  The ironies are quite profound, for instance, the two players with the prototypically Asian surname of Kang/Khang would play for the American team....

Of course, there are some obvious complications that present.  I would expect that the Prez Cup opportunity for a guy like Cameron Young was a big factor in his staying on the PGA Tour, though that's just speculation.

Australian Rod Morri argued for the same here (the important thing being that I can now close that browser tab).

Shane Ryan has thoughts on how to "spice up the match", some of which is worth thinking through, especially this on format:

1. Have fewer matches overall, and per session

Prior to the 1987 Ryder Cup, officials with the PGA of America proposed a format change—they wanted it to be held over four days and to include a second singles round. This was partly for TV
revenue and ticket sales and all that—the public was finally starting to come around on this team competition—but it was also partly strategic. America had the best players, and more matches (particularly in singles) meant they'd have a better chance to win. Coming on the heels of 1985, Team Europe's first win, it would have been devastating to the psyche of a group gaining momentum and for the event overall. Luckily, Tony Jacklin was a visionary who saw exactly how bad this would be for everyone, and he used the greatest weapon at his disposal—he threatened to resign. His influence and leverage was just enough to get the European Tour fighting on his behalf, and eventually the PGA of America dropped the idea.

The point here is that, statistically speak, fewer matches overall benefit an underdog, and the fact that the Ryder Cup has just 28 points at stake, with less than half of them held as singles matches, has allowed Europe to compete toe to toe with a nation that has remained superior in terms of raw talent throughout the years.

Now turn to the Presidents Cup, which started with 32 points at stake, moved up to 34 at one point, and now has come down to 30. That might not sound like a whole lot more than 28, but every point counts in a tight match, and there's another big difference, too: the first two days, there are five matches per session, meaning that each team can only sit out two players instead of the usual four. This, again, benefits the stronger American team, because it prevents the weaker International Team from “hiding” two of its weaker players. It also diminishes strategy, which is always bad, and decreases variability, which is bad in match-play exhibitions.

If you want to make the Internationals more competitive, this is an easy way to start. You don't even need to get rid of Thursday golf; just make the first two days four matches only, and you've reduced the total matches to 28 and taken a big step toward preventing Americans depth from overwhelming the competition.

(Note: For what it's worth, they should also get rid of Thursday golf. It's more fun when it's all stacked in close proximity and the captains have to make immediate tough choices.)

Sorry for the long excerpt, but that Ryder Cup bit is quite interesting to your humble blogger.  I do agree with Shane that cramming those 28 matches into three days make sit a more interesting competition, bringing fatigue into play.  Ironically, in a world in which athletic competitions are routinely compromised to conform to TV schedules, this one has gone the other direction entirely.  On the one hand, I love that fact and encourage more of the same.  Yet, to be honest, it's more golf than any one human being can watch (at least on Friday and Saturday), and I hate those parts I miss...

Problem is that, after that instructive bit about the number of matches, the rest of Shane's suggestions range between silly and insignificant.  To wit:

2. Pay the players

While the four-day schedule mentioned above is one in which the Presidents Cup has tried—and failed—to distinguish itself positively from the Ryder Cup, there are other differences that are hugely successful. The snake draft method of determining match-ups, for one, produces wonderful drama that is totally unique in the sport and a great change from the Ryder Cup. Allowing both captains to go to six captain's picks, while no longer dissimilar from the Ryder Cup, was also a strong move. Here's an idea for another:

Pay the players.

By raising the idea of a financial incentive to play in the event, we’re not looking at it as a form of persuasion to keep players loyal to the PGA Tour; paying someone like Cameron Smith $500,000 for a President Cup appearance wasn’t going to keep him from jumping to LIV Golf. However, it's practically criminal from a business standpoint that these team events, which stand on the shoulders of the players, offer those players no profit! A stipend and a donation to charity won't cut it; these guys should be making millions.

Millions, Shane?  Do you actually think that the Prez Cup is worth millions?  David Duval was unavailable for comment, but seems a strange time to be throwing more money at players (and I've an ace in my pocket on that subject).

Now, this is a serious point, though at this point it's not about to happen.  It is, however, the basis of a Ryder Cup nightmare scenario:

3. Give each team complete control over its own destiny

Here was Ernie Els, the International team's best ever captain, after his near-upset in Melbourne in 2019:

“I know it’s a PGA Tour-sanctioned event, but to really be able to do what you need to do, you need to be almost a separate … you need to be away from the PGA Tour. I love these guys, they work for the tour and all that, but to make our own rules, to get our own choices, to do our own thing, it’s hard to explain. But we need to be separate. That’s a long, long process. I don’t think it will happen very soon … the Ryder Cup works because the Europeans do their own thing, and the U.S. do their own thing … we’re trying to do it under one umbrella, so under the tour’s office, under their roof, you know, and there’s a lot of things that clash.”

It's unlikely PGA Tour officials are going to give free license to anyone else to run the event, nor should they. (Total autonomy might lead to a nightmare scenario in which the International roster is full of LIV golfers, for instance.) That said, there has to be a compromise solution that allows the International team a degree of strategic independence. Now that you have guys like Els and Immelman who are taking their leadership roles very seriously—as opposed to the more laid-back ceremonial approach of previous three-time captains like Gary Player, Greg Norman and Nick Price—you need to encourage that as much as possible. Not that it's simple, of course.

On the one hand, it's easy to deride an event where one team picks the other team's captain.  On the other hand, there's no logical authority to run the International team's operations, but we're talking about an event that's held biannually, the implication being that you're going to stand up some kind of organization that will be responsible to run an event every four years.  

But can you see the Ryder Cup nightmare ahead?  The Euro Tour is currently allowing the LIV guys to play under a court order.  Fast forward to 2023 and think through the implications is such an order remains in place.  Setting aside the many complications of the Euro's bifurcated qualification process and whether a court order would be binding on captain's picks, but just imagine the scenario where Europe's team (or captains/vice captains) include LIV defectors.  Does Jay send a team, or does he shut down the PGA of America's gravy train (to be clear, the gravy comes to Seth Waugh in 2025, not 2023), but it gets very complicated, no?  

This week In LIVitation - There's just so much nonsense out there, I'm going to need a far bigger blog.  Forgive me for not taking the time to sequence what follows, but I'm just going to start throwing stuff at the wall.  Let's lede with this rather odd Sean Zak piece that doesn't much deliver on this header:

They held an event in Chicago?  Who knew?

To me, I come away with the following images from Sean's piece, each of which triggers the reaction, Good Riddance, beginning with Bryson waxing sentimental about the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits:

Lost in the haze of the past year has been the fact that DeChambeau began that Ryder Cup on edge. He arrived having avoided media for two months, the kind of decision that only garners more attention, agreeing to break his silence only because it seemed like the best move for the team. But 12 months later — this was now on Sunday evening at Rich Harvest Harms — a different DeChambeau approached reporters, proactively asking them if they needed anything from him. (His update: He hurt his eye when he was clothes-lined by a rope during the final round, a “freak accident,” but he would be fine, and his game was “trending” even if he’s frustrated.)

Why exactly was he allowed to stiff the media for two months?  How's that coddling working out for you, Jay?  But, Bryson, thanks for asking, but nobody needs anything from you anymore.

And this on you know who:

Alas, here we are. Wherever that is. “A long way” from 12 months ago.

Despite carding the best round of his 2022 year, Mickelson declined to speak with the media — even LIV Golf’s own website editor — as he packed up and left. Before long he exited the clubhouse with a black and red duffel over his right shoulder, talking through various shots with his coach Andrew Getson. A security guard walked in front of them and another trailed behind as Mickelson got into the driver’s seat of a white Yukon Denali, started up the engine and peeled away. Over the next two hours, a string of private jets took off from the nearby Aurora Regional airport, many of them flying right past Charlotte, on a beeline for West Palm Beach, Fla.

Phil, just keep walking....Of course, I can't tell Bryson to keep walking, because that seems to be an issue (but you can thank me later for this angle on ropegate):

But these LIVsters need to work on their messaging.  For instance, Phil took time ut from avoiding the media to offer this bit of wisdom:

“The best solution is for us to come together,” Phil told reporters on Friday at LIV Golf Chicago, the upstart tour’s fourth event. “I think that the world of professional golf has a need for the old, historical history of the game product that the PGA Tour provides, and I think that LIV provides a really cool, updated feel that is attracting a lot younger crowd, and that’s being proven in the people that are watching and the age of the people that are watching.”

 Which opinion I would totally take seriously, except for certain niggling details:

It should be noted that one of the largest obstacles to peace in our time has been created, in large part, by Phil. The six-time major champ was the leader of the group of 11 LIV players who sued the PGA Tour last month for antitrust violations. The first scene in that court battle resulted in a loss for the upstarts, and a handful of defections from the suit, but it is expected that the legal proceedings will continue well into 2023. And that would only seem to be the tip of the iceberg legally for the warring tours, as more lawsuits are expected in the coming months.

But, but, obnoxious greed!  

Among all the lies being spun, this might just be the most noxious:

"This notion we're trying to destroy tours is not true. The PGA Tour is trying to destroy us, it's as simple as that. But the PGA Tour has not sat down and had a conversation with myself or any of my investors," Norman said.

How do you know the Shark is lying?  Exactly....

The bonecutters developed a business plan that included predicated on cherry-picking the top 48 golfers in the world and compelling them to play fifteen events, and want us to believe that that's not an existential threat to the PGA Tour?  back here on Planet Earth we're gullible, but quite that clueless.

But Dylan Dethier sees this as a threshold change in rhetoric and strategy:

This week, that rhetoric changed. That means LIV’s public strategy is changing, too.

Greg Norman signaled the shift in an interview with The Australian. After a year of what he claims were attempts to find common ground with the Tour and with its commissioner, Jay Monahan, Norman said the dynamic has now flipped. He no longer wants a meeting.

“We have no interest in sitting down with them, to be honest with you, because our product is working,” Norman said.

Working?  Yowzer. that's a truckload of crazy, but let's let Dylan go on.

But if you’re more receptive to the new league you could also argue that Norman and LIV have leapt over so many early hurdles that they’re taking a victory lap. Skeptics wondered if the circuit would be able to attract top talent and if it would be able to pull off events. While the PGA Tour has retained the large majority of its top-ranked pros, LIV’s promises of big-time paydays have won over a significant contingent from the top 100 in the world. Both the events and the accompanying broadcasts have gone off successfully, too, putting on a show for thousands of fans per day. And objections to the league’s Saudi funding have, over time, gotten increasingly buried in the daily churn of news. LIV’s launch hasn’t all been smooth, but given the tight time frame and lack of existing infrastructure, it has certainly been competent. Money helps with that, of course. Money will continue to be an asset.

As the fields have gotten stronger, LIV’s stars have showed out, too. Two of the league’s most precious signings, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith, have won its two most recent events. Norman crowed about their success on Instagram on Sunday, suggesting they were the “real” World Nos. 1 and 2. Top stars showing top form is good for LIV.

Wow, they actually prevailed over David Puig and James Piot?  That's some serious firepower....

Is anyone paying attention?

That’s not to say LIV’s success is inevitable. Thus far, its broadcasts have only run on YouTube and its website, commercial-free. And despite a strong in-person showing, over the weekend LIV struggled to maintain the audience. One accounting of viewership numbers showed peaks of 50,000, 63,000 and 95,000 for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, significantly down from the Massachusetts event, which peaked at 75,000 viewers on Friday, 75,000 viewers on Saturday and 182,000 viewers on Sunday.

Inevitable?  Dylan, I don't know what you're smoking, but I hope you've brought enough to share.

But apparently Phil had this to say in conjunction with that bit above:

“The PGA Tour, for the last 20 or 30 years, have had all the best players in the world. That will never be the case again. LIV Golf is here to stay, and this type of divisive talk is doing nobody good,” he said. That last clause hinted at Mickelson’s moderating message. In contrast to Norman, Mickelson (who, it’s worth noting, is part of the lawsuit against the PGA Tour) hopes the two leagues can find compromise.

But maybe I'm wrong.  Because apparently LIV owns this major market:

The most compelling testimony of the week came from Anirban Lahiri and Joaquin Niemann, the best golfers from India and Chile, respectively. They said LIV has allowed their countrymen to see more of their golf on a big-time stage. After some initial blowback, Niemann said he feels Chileans have gotten on board with LIV.

“Everybody in Chile is loving it, and now they’re able to watch me more during the round instead of how they were used to before,” he said.

My track record of predictions is mixed, although I do think I've gotten some important aspects of the dynamic correct.  But rather than dueling predictions, perhaps we'd be better served talking about the current state of play.  Because, with no disrespect to the critical Chilean market, to me LIV has a big bag of nothing right now.

We don't need to be disrespectful to Cam Smith or Joaquin Niemann (whereas I can't summon any actual respect for DJ), but scan their fields from top to bottom, and one obvious conclusion is irrefutable.  They have a couple of names, but it's basically a pro-am field beyond that.  They have nothing that sustainable, because no one will tune in for Cam Smith.

Now, this is obviously fraught with peril, and those Jon Rahm rumors last week were quite the wake-up call.  I'm not saying it couldn't change in hurry, the scary scenario being what economists call a preference cascade, the defection of a couple of big names making it OK for others to follow.  Heading that off has been sub-contacted to Tiger, a smart move for sure, but that's where things stand right now.

Yes, they've stood up events quicker than expected, but right now they plan on holding fourteen such events with the current field, and who is interested in that?  Sure, you've got their immediate families and Chilean market, but they have nothing as we sit here right now.  There's an old adage about lawyers that goes like this:

If your facts are good for your case, pound the facts.

If the law is good for your case, pound the law.

If neither the law nor facts are good for your case, pound the table.

To this observer, Mr. Norman is pounding the table.

Just a couple of LIV bits to amuse:

Well, just add that to the list....

And this:

I think we know the answer.

What I find fairly strange is that they just blindly assume that the Saudis will continue to throw good money after bad.  Network contract or not, there is simply no way that the golf ecosystem can support their financial commitments, so when does somebody ask Norman for his Plan B?

I almost forget to deliver on this reference above, a radical rethinking from Geoff for the majors:

Stating what the Four Families cannot say about the unsustainable pay wars. 

In a Graham Bensinger interview released last week, Will Zalatoris discussed the state of pro
golf. The 2022 PGA Championship and U.S. Open runner-up said majors motivate him more than money.

“If the U.S. Open had a $100,000 purse, I’d still show up to the U.S. Open,” he told Bensinger. “I’m in this to go win a major – that’s my career goal. There’s no amount of money that I would give to trade that for a trophy.”

Already having experienced years of behind-the-scenes gripes from PGA Tour players, The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open and The Open substantially increased purses. But the Four Families also put some of their television rights money back into improving the events while funding causes for the betterment of the greater good. Which is why, after a summer of absurd millions funneled to players, it’s time for the next Five Families meeting to send Jay Monahan off to the Citation for a Four Family pow-wow. And once Tour Air 1 is cleared for takeoff to Steamboat, the remaining family heads should agree on a five-year major championship purse-freeze.

For the good of the game.

I think he's very much on to something there, that Jay's attempt to compete with LIV by increasing purses reeks of desperation, but this would help rebut some of the "grow the game" posturing.

I actually hadn't heard this, but Geoff had this behind his paywall:

The irony, she burns!  If there was one man responsible for Fox's disastrous involvement with golf, it's none other than Greg Norman, so what could go wrong this time?  Well, DJ played his own role in that FOX Fiasco, if I remember correctly....

Udder Stuff - Not a ton going on, though this has certainly gotten lost in the shuffle:

5. After much speculation and years of wondering, new photos show the addition of a new teeing ground on Augusta National’s famous par-5 13th. What are your thoughts on a lengthened 13th and how does that change the tournament?

Bastable: The change will have traditionalists wincing but c’est la vie. This is where we are with the professional game. I think in a perfect world the lengthening would make the hole 10-15 percent harder. Any more than that and 13 will lose its eagle-ability that makes it so much fun to watch. I do like that the new pushed-back tee appears to create a knee-knocking chute, a la the tee shot at 18. Good luck threading that corridor of pines with a one-shot lead on Sunday.

Dethier: I think it’s going to be awesome. Pros hitting big-time drives and then trying to flight high, soft fades off of hook lies onto that green? Yes please. I’ve watched enough Masters from the 70s, 80s and 90s to crave watching the pros take on that challenge. But that’s in a vacuum. If you zoom out, it’s problematic that golf’s most famous arena just keeps stretching, and stretching, and stretching; the distance debate can feel like golf’s version of climate change. A new-and-improved 13th hole is like a warm, sunny winter in New England. Sure, it represents an existential threat to humanity’s existence. But hey, how ‘bout that March golf?

LKD: I love it, and can’t wait to see it. From the sky, the hole is giving me Harbour Town golf. Target golf at its very finest. Pull a driver and hit a tight draw round the corner. Hit the shot or go home.

Perhaps this will wake some folks up.

More details here, but what I haven't seen is how far they need to drive it clear the dogleg, which has always been my concern.  Like those writers, I'd much prefer that they hit 6-irons into the green, but I worry that we'll end up with players unable to even see the green, and there's nothing more boring than lay-ups.  My stated preference was to play it as a Par-4, but we'll know better in April.

I'll likely see you next on Friday. 

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