As promised, we'll do that deep dive into the U.S. Open, though there's at least one non-Open story that I am required by statute to cover...
All About The Venue - Your humble blogger is not a big fan of taking majors to regular Tour stops for all the obvious reasons (not to mention the fact that one visit a year to many seems excessive). But I make an exception for Pebble that also applies to Torrey, that conditions are so different in June that they're really not the same place. That logic works better for Pebble because it's the far more interesting track, but we'll at least have those spectacular views of the Pacific (plus the obligatory wind surfers).
This Mike Stachura piece is well worth your time, though its interavtive format makes it a difficult piece from which to grab excerpts:
U.S. Open 2021: A deep-dive look at how Torrey Pines will play tougher than as a regular PGA Tour event
I found this graphic interesting:
Reason No. 1,453,678 why that Tiger Woods guy was pretty good at this golf thing...
Perhaps of greater import is this item from the local paper about the K-word:
The official logo for the Torrey Pines Golf Course is the namesake tree that dots the picturesque bluffs above the Pacific Ocean and grows hardly anywhere else on the planet. Its image, solitary and majestic, adorns the brick and stone sign at the entrance to the property.
A more fitting totem of the course’s unique nature, though, might be a few yards away, inside a nondescript metal pole for a handicapped parking sign. For years, a strand of kikuyu grass had grown up through it, 8 feet high.
“I’ve seen kikuyu growing in places it shouldn’t be growing,” Rich McIntosh, the city’s course superintendent for Torrey Pines. “It grows in places I don’t necessarily want it to grow. It will grow up through an orange traffic cone 2½ feet in the air, through mats we have down (on the course). As long as it’s got a lot of water and good growing conditions, it will grow anywhere. It will climb poles. It will find that sunlight.”
And there’s the poetic irony of Mother Nature. A place named for something that won’t grow anywhere else is defined by something that won’t stop growing.
Well, yes, that is ironic.... And we know how tired we get of the constant references to the kikuyu at Riviera... So, why the big deal? Because the kikuyu is dormant in Fevruary:
But what separates Torrey Pines from all other PGA Tour stops except Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles is the grass named for the Kikuyu people in the East African highlands. And even then, the kikuyu doesn’t bare its teeth during the Farmers Insurance Open in late January because it goes dormant in the winter and, in the interest of keeping the place green, the course is overseeded with more benign ryegrass.
It isn’t dormant in June.
It’s why players who came to the Farmers in January to get a preview of Torrey Pines conceded it would be a completely different golf course in June. The fairways will be the same width, the Poa annua greens roughly the same speed, the wind from the same direction (although maybe not as cold and damp), the tee boxes and pin placements in many of the same locations.
“The rough, I think, will be the big differentiator,” says John Bodenhamer, the U.S. Golf Association’s senior managing director of championships. “The biggest difference between January and June will be the kikuyu.”
I know this is a bit of an agronomic deep-dive but, notwithstanding that 2008 winning score, it seems that the kikuyu wasn't much of a factor then:
To that end, the USGA acknowledges that the Torrey Pines rough at the 2008 U.S. Open wasn’tas infernal as they had hoped, even though Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate were the only players under par (and that was by a single stroke). The culprit, they later realized, was the overseeded ryegrass from the Farmers, which had grown so high that the kikuyu below it never got enough sunlight through the spring to fully sprout.
So McIntosh and his crew shaved the rough down to an inch in some places, along with reducing overseed rates of the ryegrass and increasing chemical eradication “to get the kikuyu moving.” That seemed to help, although the gloomy, cloudy spring didn’t cooperate until this past week. The kikuyu is higher than in 2008, up to 6 inches or more in some area, although not uniform height and density across the course.
If you can remember all the way back to yesterday, we had a video of Xander hacking out from the rough behind the 18th green, which we should see no shortage of this weekend.
Of course, things are never quite as simple as they seem. We hear much about SubAir and other systems that remove water from surfaces, but it so happens that their needs are more compartmentalized:
The USGA likes its U.S. Open courses “firm and fast,” which is code for they don’t water them. But if you don’t water the rough, the blades of grass lose their moisture content and lie down, making extraction easier as the tournament progresses because the ball sits up. The new sprinkler system allows them to water the rough but nothing else, keeping the kikuyu hydrated. Keeping the kikuyu as kiku-yuck.
For those still pining for those Tom Meeks set-ups of the dreary 1980's, your day might have arrived.
A knowledgeable golf fan can't hear a discussion of penal rough without instinctively wondering how one certain player might handle it, but he's way ahead of the rest of us:
Bryson DeChambeau, golf’s “mad scientist,” applies his cerebral, methodical approach to the thick stuff as well. During practice rounds, he’ll drop balls in it and try to hit various clubs to determine which lofts work. Also important to him his how the ball gets there, and he adjusts his shot trajectory accordingly. A low, line drive skipping along the ground has a better chance at sitting up; a high, arcing shot is more likely to be buried deep in the knotted thatch.
My predictions is that we'll be sick of the K-word by Friday...
But you know what you won't see much of this week? Actual Torrey Pines:
In realty, though, the municipal golf courses on the edge of the Pacific Ocean are fairly spare on actual Torrey pines as this week’s U.S. Open arrives, with far more eucalyptus on the grounds. Between drought, bark beetle disease, age and some shifting around for design purposes, the North and South courses have, conservatively, lost dozens of trees of all types since the 2008 U.S. Open was played on the South. Go back several decades and that number is in the hundreds.
“There’s a huge difference from when I first came here,” said Joe DeBock, the head professional at Torrey Pines who has worked at the course for more than 30 years. “The course plays like a links now, and it’s getting more that way all of the time.”
No word on how many remain on the two courses:
First identified in 1850 and named for John Torrey, an American botanist, the species is the rarest pine in the U.S., extremely endangered, and only grows in San Diego in the Torrey Pines StateNatural Preserve that is adjacent to the courses, and on a couple of islands off the coast of Santa Barbara.The pines can live to be 100, but they’ve been hit hard in Southern California by drought and bark beetles. They can also be hard to grow. In a course design move, the city tried to replant some Torreys to the right of the South’s fourth fairway to prevent players from blowing their drives into the fifth and playing in from there to the green. But DeBock said the trees withered and didn’t last.For those who have been around Torrey Pines for years, there are mixed feelings about the loss of the trees. They have definitely made playing the courses easier, and some of the views of the canyons and nearby coastline are more spectacular than ever.
No doubt those views are grand, but it's still a bit of a pity....
All About Phil - Everyone wants to know whether Phil can do it.... Spoiler Alert: If he could, he would have long ago.... But this from Eamon Lynch has become a staple of the week:
Lynch: Phil Mickelson launches 30th bid for U.S. Open title determined to tune out
distractions“It’s a unique opportunity because I’ve never won a U.S. Open,” Mickelson said Monday, a facteven the most casual fan knows. The PGA Championship was his sixth major title but Mickelson’s career has been defined by the only major he hasn’t won. He’s finished second in the U.S. Open a record six times, and since his birthday always falls during tournament week, every disappointment comes with a reminder that he has less time remaining to fulfill his dream of the career Grand Slam.He will launch his 30th bid for the title on Thursday and has been determined to tune out the distractions.“I’ve kind of shut off all the noise. I’ve shut off my phone. I’ve shut off a lot of the other stuff to where I can kind of focus in on this week and really give it my best chance to try to play my best,” he said. “Now, you always need some luck, you always need things to kind of come together and click, but I know that I’m playing well, and I just wanted to give myself every opportunity to be in play at my best.”
This piece on Phil's prep seems to be describing the Bizarro World Phil:
If Mickelson’s pre-tournament work seems rather odd for a guy who grew up here and has played in San Diego’s PGA Tour event at Torrey Pines 29 times as a pro, it’s that Mickelson said hemade an effort in the last week to “re-learn” the greens that were fashioned in Rees Jones’ 2001 redesign of the South.“I don't spend a lot of time out here other than the Farmers. I really made an effort here, having the last week off, to spend time out here and really learn, re-learn the greens,” Mickelson said on Monday after playing a practice round with Bryson DeChambeau and Akshay Bhatia. “So I spent a lot of hours out here on the greens last week to see if I can get that local knowledge again, and we'll see how it goes."The way Mickelson explained it, instead of looking to throw darts, he’s prepping for 30- to 40-foot putts, and either making those or coaxing them close. After all, in an U.S. Open, par is almost always an acceptable score. He called it his “safety net.”
“When you see the way the ball rolls, you know where you have to be for your approach and you know what kind of shot is the best shot to hit into certain approaches,” Mickelson said.
Playing for 30-40 footers? Who are you and what have you done with Phil?
ESPN has it's own Tour Confidential-like panel of their writers, and among their subjects are Phil's prospects:
Oh, about Phil: Does he have any chance this week?
Harig: This is a big ask. But his win at the PGA should provide him with confidence and a spark, and the hope is that he rides the momentum from Kiawah Island. Yes, he missed the cut in Fort
Worth, but that was easy to understand the next week after his big win. The key is hitting both thedriver and his modified 2-wood in play. He was also planning a good bit of prep time at Torrey Pines, and that should help. We didn't give him any hope at Kiawah, but the expectations are raised here.
Collins: I'm going to say no, hoping it'll be reverse psychology. As much as I love the guy and realize what an amazing story it'd be, Phil has more demons about the U.S. Open than Tom Brady has Super Bowl appearances. Even if Lefty finds a way to get into contention Sunday, someone will play Stewart Cink to his Tom Watson.
Schlabach: Probably not. With its narrow fairways, firm conditions and heavy rough, Torrey Pines might be too much for him. Of course, we thought the same thing about his chances at Kiawah Island.
Van Valkenburg: What's interesting to think about, looking back at Phil's near miss at Winged Foot in 2006, is how poorly he drove it off the tee. It was his short game that kept him in it long enough to collapse on the last hole. He's actually better off the tee at age 50, but worse around the greens. Could he summon a magical week with a wedge? Anything is possible, I guess. But I don't know that I believe he can stay focused for four rounds, two majors in a row. Jack Nicklaus used to say he believed he could still hit all the shots deep into his 50s; he just couldn't maintain razor-sharp focus for four hours.
VanHaaren: I don't think so. It's too big of a mental drain too close to the PGA Championship. What he did at Kiawah was unbelievable, but we shouldn't forget that up until that win, he was going to get into the U.S. Open on a special exemption. In the 11 tournaments he has played in since January, he has missed the cut five times and has only three top-25 finishes. I don't want to take away from what he did in the PGA Championship, but it seems highly unlikely he repeats that performance at Torrey Pines.
Unfortunately, the short answer is "No". What? The Long answer? Hell No!
All About Rahmbo - As predicted herein:
The golfer many are choosing as their favorite to win the U.S. Open next week is now officially cleared to play.Jon Rahm tweeted on Saturday that he received consecutive negative tests for COVID-19 in a 24-hour span and can now get ready for the major at Torrey Pines, where the Spaniard won the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open. Rahm shared the news with a twist of humor, adding a GIF of an animated cartoon version of Sylvester Stallone’s Rambo character. He ended the post with “Vamos!”—or “go” in Spanish.
Don't get me started on those over-sensitive tests, but the Spaniard quickly testing negative was as readily predictable as a Lexi Thompson collapse.
More interesting, perhaps, is assessing the impact of his temporary hiatus on his chances this week:
How will the layoff after his positive COVID-19 test and withdrawal from the Memorial impact Jon Rahm's chances to win his first major?
Bob Harig: He tested negative two days in a row last week, meaning he got to leave isolation prior to the 10-day quarantine period. That's far better than getting stuck in Ohio until Tuesday
without the ability to appropriately practice. Those concerns should be gone. Rahm's game is in excellent shape, as noted by his 65-64 scores before testing positive. And as long as he had no symptoms, he should be good to go. Rahm knows the course (he won there in 2017), and he will be highly motivated.
Michael Collins: Luckily, he now has the time to prepare. The U.S. Open is not the place you want to play catch-up in preparation. No time to be stressed, just play.
Mark Schlabach: As long as he remains asymptomatic, I don't think it's going to bother him much. If anything, I could see the situation motivating Rahm even more as he attempts to win his first major. Remember that Rahm didn't arrive at the Masters in April until the day before the start of play; his wife gave birth to their first child the previous Saturday. He didn't get in a practice round and said he hadn't played Augusta National since November. Still, he played well enough to finish in a tie for seventh. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win his first major this week. He won his first PGA Tour event at Torrey Pines four years ago and putts on poa annua greens as well as almost anyone.
Kevin Van Valkenburg: I'll take the contrarian role here and say I do think it will hurt his chances, at least somewhat. The U.S. Open is always about patience and composure, but particularly when you catch what feels like an unfair break. The one thing holding Rahm back in majors thus far has been his temperament. I don't think he'll actually be hurt by the limited prep, but if something goes wrong early in the championship, I suspect he'll quickly begin to blame what he sees as the unfairness of it all. He has to figure out a way to understand that everyone gets bad breaks, not just Jon Rahm.
Tom VanHaaren: I agree it probably doesn't impact him much, but if it does, I would think it might help him. He was playing really well with a 6-shot lead at the Memorial, so he has that confidence going into the U.S. Open. He has had success at Torrey Pines before, so I imagine he'll focus more on the positive of how well he's playing than on not being able to finish at Memorial. If I were him, I'd be itching to get back on the course and keep the momentum I have going into a major.
It's unknowable, of course, but interesting because the disruption occurred just as everything seemed to be coming together for the Spaniard. H remains the betting favorite, with both the game and prior success at Torrey to recommend him.
All About Those BFFs - Let's lead with this curious Joel Beall item about one of the protagonists:
U.S. Open 2021: Bryson DeChambeau is golf’s biggest attraction. Will he ever be beloved?
Well, seems simple enough, to be beloved one needs to be, well, loveable...
But why, exactly, does Bryson struggle to connect with fans?“Some athletes get under our skin and if they don't say the right thing to appease our displeasure,they stay under our skin and likely dig deeper with each performance and interview,” says Dr. Brendan Dwyer, the director of research at Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Leadership.
Dwyer is one of the leading authorities on sports-fan behavior, so he seemed to be someone who could help make sense of DeChambeau’s proclivity to rile people up. Dwyer says that some of our uneasiness with Bryson is not irrational. Golf is not a sport that does “different” well, and DeChambeau—with his Hogan caps and one-length clubs and stippling—is the definition of a different dude. Even before his success, DeChambeau was called out for not adhering to the norm.
Which can't help but remind me of this evergreen quote:
“Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.”
― George Orwell
Of course, it's even worse than that, because after blaming us for not embracing the man, he recites the laundry list of specifics that drive our rational reactions:
In that same breath, some of the contempt toward DeChambeau is self-inflicted. There was his extravagant driving range meltdown during the 2018 Open Championship. He is not the first tour pro to work officials for favorable rulings, but using fire ants and fences to do so seemed like stretches. He dressed down a cameraman in Detroit after his lens caught him running hot, then complained the video could hurt his brand. DeChambeau said he wasn’t the one kicking out fans who were yelling “Brooksy” at the Memorial, but there’s video of him doing just that during the PGA at Kiawah Island. He’s known for ripping course conditions; mics heard him complaining about the bunkers at Bay Hill, and you better believe Winged Footers haven’t forgotten DeChambeau muttering “these greens suck” during last year’s Open.“We don't like athletes who don't apologize or show remorse for poor behavior or bad play. We don't like athletes who play on the margins of the rules. We expect poor conduct or behavior to be explained or rationalized. We expect apologies once in a while,” Dwyer says. “However, villains are unabashed in their decisions and behavior. They don't apologize. They revel in their uniqueness especially when it gets reactions and results.”
So, it takes an academic to explain why we don't love a guy that can be a bit of a dick?
One of those ESPN writers takes his best shot at goading the USGA to pair the guys for the first two rounds:
But before you finalize things, I was wondering if you'll grant us one last-minute request. (Bet you can guess it.)
Give us Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau in the same group.
Don't overthink this, OK?
Don't wring your hands or offer excuses about how the U.S. Open is bigger than any individual matchup, that it would be in poor taste to encourage scenes of Brooks rolling his eyes every time Bryson tries to calibrate the air density. Don't offer up a poem or video essay that attempts to remind us, with an aristocratic air, that golf has a history of honorable, gentlemanly behavior, not so casually implying that tossing Brooks and Bryson into the same threesome might cheapen the first two rounds of America's national championship.
Your brand is chaos, USGA.
This isn't gonna happen and it probably shouldn't happen, though at least the author addresses the best reason it shouldn't be done:
It doesn't even matter who the third member of their group is. Make it Patrick Reed, if you want someone who thrives in uncomfortable situations. Make it Max Homa, if you want someone who could crack jokes and lighten the mood. Make it Jon Rahm, if you want someone to socially distance himself from each of them. Anyone will do.
OK, I said he acknowledged the issue, I didn't say he did so convincingly. Although the concept of throwing PReed to the wolves is intriguing...
And he does make a point here:
But don't lose your nerve, USGA. Be bold and embrace the fun. To heck with anyone whogrouses that it's manufactured. Literally every first-round pairing is manufactured. You're the same organization that, in 2014, thought it would be funny to pair thicc boys Shane Lowry, Brendon de Jonge and Kevin Stadler together, a memorable trio that Lowry called "a mockery."
Don't tell me that pairing up husky golfers is cool, then shy away from delightful mutual animosity.
Don't get your hopes up, though a pairing that happened organically over the weekend could be good fun. In any event, that ESPN panel has fun with it as well:
Bryson DeChambeau vs. Brooks Koepka: Who has a better week?
Harig: Both players have struggled at Torrey Pines during the Farmers Insurance Open played here, but the conditions this week will be nothing like they are in January. Given Koepka's ability to almost will himself to the top of leaderboards in major championships, he gets the advantage here against DeChambeau. Koepka gained confidence from his tie for second at the PGA Championship, and said his right knee is feeling much better. He thrives in major conditions, and look for him to do so again.
Collins: C, none of the above. One guy finishing 35th and one guy finishing 40th to me is not the definition of a "better week." The only way it gets interesting is if they end up paired together Saturday or Sunday. Now, if you positively, absolutely, must have an answer to who plays better, I'll take Brooks right now. He's motivated, and even though his record isn't great at Torrey for the Farmers Insurance Open, this ain't that tournament. No way Brooks wants to hear the social media chatter if Bryson wins. Is it wrong for me to be rooting for that?
Schlabach: Neither one of them has a great track record at the South Course, and they have largely avoided Torrey Pines throughout their careers. Koepka missed the cut there at the Farmers in 2017 and 2021; he was 41st in 2015. He was under par in only one of his previous eight rounds. DeChambeau has been even worse, missing the cut in his only two starts at the Farmers -- in 2017 and 2018. I'll go with Koepka, the four-time major champion. DeChambeau hasn't performed well in the majors since winning at Winged Foot last year, and his form hasn't been great since March.
Van Valkenburg: I think Bryson. I love watching Brooks, but can we be frank for a second? He hasn't closed well in a major since the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive. He has a lot of bravado and a lot of bogeys when it counts of late. I think Bryson will have his usual advantage if everyone misses fairways, which they will. Hitting a wedge that's the length of a 7-iron might be the game's secret weapon at the moment.
VanHaaren: Koepka came close at the PGA Championship, and as Bob pointed out, his knee is only getting stronger. If the knee isn't an issue anymore and he's getting back to 100%, I'd have to give him the edge over DeChambeau. Plus, Bryson can say he's not bothered by fans calling him "Brooksie," but he has been asked about it constantly and hasn't been able to avoid it. At some point, that has to start to wear on him and knock him off his focus. I don't know if that will impact him here, but it's unavoidable, and adding in any extra mental stress to the U.S. Open is not a good recipe for success.
Just a reminder of the world according to Bryson. His takeaway from Winged Foot was that the narrower the fairways and the deeper the rough, the better his chances.
Although, I would have presented this Q&A before the one immediately above:
Can DeChambeau bomb-and-gouge his way around Torrey Pines like he did at Winged Foot last year?
Harig: It doesn't appear so. What he did at Winged Foot was amazing, but all indications are the rough will be far more penal at Torrey Pines. Already there are reports of 5-inch rough and very
difficult lies. That can certainly change, although even if the grass is somewhat lower, it won't be easy. DeChambeau will need to find more fairways, and while he will still have some success from the rough because of his strength, he has to bring other aspects of his game to the form they were at Winged Foot.
Collins: Nope. Torrey Pines South Course is a different type of course from Winged Foot. The "bomb" part is great, but the "gouge" part doesn't work in this type of rough. The biggest issue will be how the ball reacts coming from the rough when it lands on the greens. Bryson's short game was amazing at Winged Foot -- and has not been as good since. The expectation that it'll magically appear again this week isn't a great bet.
Schlabach: John Bodenhamer, the person from the USGA who sets up the course, has indicated that there will be a premium on hitting tee shots on fairways, with firm and fast poa annua greens and heavy, thick kikuyu rough, which doesn't bode well for DeChambeau if that's indeed the case. DeChambeau leads the tour in driving distance (322.7 yards), but he's 172nd in driving accuracy (54.4%). Hitting approach shots onto bouncy greens out of high-and-thick rough won't be easy, so DeChambeau can't bomb away and has to hit fairways.
Van Valkenburg: I think there is this misperception that all Bryson did was nuke the ball at Winged Foot. He was third in the field in strokes gained/approach, second in strokes gained/around the green and second in strokes gained/putting. The fact that he's quietly become a top-10 putter in the game is one of the biggest surprises, even more than his prodigious length off the tee. I think if he chips and putts well, he's a lock to finish in the top 10 and could easily repeat.
VanHaaren: I watched DeChambeau hit a 3-wood out of some pretty thick rough from 285 yards out on a par-5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year. He hit a cut over some tall trees and put the ball on the front of the green. I was looking around to see if anyone else saw what he did from the rough because it was incredible. I know Torrey Pines is going to be thicker and tougher than Detroit Golf Club, but I don't doubt he can find a way to bomb it and recover if he needs to. I don't think he'll have the success he did at Winged Foot, but I do think he has the confidence to stick to his blueprint.
He's a much straighter driver of the ball than is commonly understood, and there's probably no player better from the rough than he is, so why are we down on his chances?
Other Picks - I like this question from that ESPN panel:
Which favorite do you trust the least this week?
Harig: Bryson has not exactly been stellar since winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His lone top-10 finish was at Quail Hollow, where he left because he thought he missed the cut, returned early Saturday morning and put together a strong weekend that saw him sneak into the top 10. It was an admirable performance, but he was not in contention. And he's been out of the top 30 in four of his past six starts.
No argument. My point above was simply that I don't see the logic that the venue doesn't favor him... He's not shown much form recently, for sure, though he might have received a jolt of motivation from his good buddy Brooks.
Collins: If we're talking betting favorites, I don't see Rory McIlroy putting four good rounds together. Either Thursday or Saturday there's gonna be a crash-and-burn, because that's been his MO in majors lately.
I would embrace the power of the ampersand, and predict meltdowns on Thursday and Saturday, though the latter assumes that he makes it until the weekend.
Schlabach: DeChambeau has just one top-10 finish since March and was 38th or worse in four of his past six starts on tour. He's attempting to become only the second player to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open since Curtis Strange in 1988-89 (Koepka did it in 2017 and '18). I don't think he'll be around for the weekend.
Van Valkenburg: Justin Thomas. He's putting so poorly this year, and it's gone mostly unnoticed, but he is struggling big-time on the greens (122nd in SG/putting this year). Erin Hills is the only U.S. Open where he's ever contended, and that was barely a U.S. Open. For someone who is clearly one of the game's best players, he no-shows in majors far too often. Even with all of Jordan Spieth's struggles, he has contended in a major more recently than JT.
VanHaaren: Mark said pretty much everything I was going to say. I just don't see DeChambeau winning back-to-back, and I think there are too many other golfers playing well to put my chips in on him. The other name I'd throw in there is Thomas. He finished T-42 at the Memorial and T-40 at Charles Schwab, and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Thomas has only two top-10 finishes in his six U.S. Open appearances and has missed the cut twice.
JT does look lost, and this doesn't appear to be a place where you'll find your game.
Golf.com's writers make their picks here, among which these are a couple of interesting names:
Alan Bastable
To-win: Webb Simpson, +5,500. Shows up at virtually every major, but especially the U.S. Open, where in his past three starts he’s gone T10, T16, T8. Webb will finish his career with at least two major titles — might keep picking him until he proves me right.
A guy that does outperform at the biggest events, though his recent form would have to be a concern.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Will Zalatoris, +4,650. A quick scan of the clumped odds reveals that Vegas is just as confused about who is “supposed” to win this as we are. But Zalatoris is way too far down the odds sheet, so grab him at this price — while you can.
Yanno, I totally get the strategy of picking the flavor of the month, but is that wise when the month was April?
Tim Reilly
To-win: Tony Finau, +2,200. Finau always seems to raise his game during major weeks, but he never quite gets the job done. While scrolling through Instagram this morning, I came across a video of him singing 2Pac’s “California Love” en route to Torrey Pines. He was free flowing, and I’m taking that as a sign he’ll be free swinging this week. That’s right, I’m basing my pick off what my gut told me after watching Finau do his best 2Pac impression. Toss up the W for the West Coast and a Finau win this week.
The guy who can't win anything to win the biggest thing?
Separately, they also pick their sleepers:
Alan Bastable
Sleeper pick: Kevin Streelman, +11,000. Hits fairways and greens (which I’m told is an effective formula at U.S. Opens) and knows how to get to the weekend: has finished outside the top 40 just once in his past eight starts. Was in the hunt at Kiawah through three rounds until a Sunday 75 derailed him.
That's such a worthy sleeper that I almost nodded off.... I just can't imagine that Streels has enough strength to handle the kikuyu.... No matter how accurate one is on a relative basis, you're still gonna spend part of the week in the deep stuff.
This guy needs to find a job more suitable to his unque skills:
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +7,000. He won the PGA Championship and is now about to tee it up in front of the hometown crowd while still riding high from his Kiawah Island triumph. He’s confident and part of me thinks he’s playing with house money coming off a major win at age 50. I like these odds!
The guy who won the most recent major as a sleeper? Please go away...
Dylan Dethier
Sleeper pick: Lets go four of ’em! Wilco Nienaber (+30,000), Taylor Pendrith (+25,000), Cameron Young (+40,000) and Matthew Wolff (+22,500). They won’t all play well, but I love each of their odds to sneak into the top 20 at least.
That's quite the interesting foursome, though it seems that the next Matthew Wolff siting will most likely be on a milk carton.
This one seems quite far-fetched as well:
Sean Zak
Sleeper pick: Brian Harman, +9,000. The guy is playing the best golf of his life, and that is much better than his world ranking (47) indicates. Can he win on a long, long course? It’s hard to totally imagine it. But I’d be shocked if he misses the cut considering how he’s been playing.
I like Harman and have touted him for a Ryder Cup, though this might be too much of a big-boy venue for his game.
The ESPN panel also took their shot at llongshots:
Is there a how-in-the-world-did-that-happen winner like Phil Mickelson hiding in this field?Harig: How about Gary Woodland? It's been just two years since he won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, but his game has suffered to the point that he's dropped out of the top 50 in the world. Much of that has had to do with injury issues that he's finally starting to overcome. Although he missed the cut at the Memorial, Woodland started showing signs at Quail Hollow, where he tied for fifth. He's proved he has the game for tough conditions, and we shall see if he is able to get all the way back.
Collins: There's a newlywed to watch. That would be 48-year-old Lee Westwood and his caddie/bride Helen Storey, who got married in Las Vegas this week. So, why not add a U.S. Open?
Schlabach: Would there be a better story than Charley Hoffman winning his first major at Torrey Pines? Hoffman, 44, was born in San Diego and attended nearby Poway High School. He was a two-time California state high school player of the year and qualified for the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines three times as an amateur. Few players know the course as well as he does; he has 71 competitive rounds there since 1994. He has four top-25s at the Farmers Insurance Open, including solo ninth in 2020.
Van Valkenburg: Does Justin Rose count? With him at age 40 and looking at 40-1 odds, I think he qualifies. I could see Rose contending. He would need a hot putting week, but he still has the iron game and the demeanor to pull off an unlikely second major.
VanHaaren: The way qualifying works for the U.S. Open, this is the tournament to get that type of win. Jack Fleck beat Ben Hogan in 1955 after qualifying for the tournament. Steve Jones won it in 1996 after getting in from a final qualifier, and Michael Campbell beat Tiger Woods in 2005 in an improbable win. I'd love to see one of the qualifiers do it again and win. I don't know how probable it is, but Chez Reavie was 12 under over 36 holes to play his way into the tournament. He told me he has a lot of confidence from his play and feels good about where he's at, and he finished T-3 at the U.S. Open in 2019 at Pebble Beach. So, I'll throw him in the ring.
There's a trend of picking grizzled veterans that are solid ball-strikers, which includes Woodland, Westwood and Rose above, to which Adam Scott could be added. It's not a crazy logic, but when you can get the same skill set in a younger model, say Collin Morikawa, I don't why you'd gravitate to the older models.
Story of The Day - Our specialty here at Unplayable Lies is Gofers Behaving Badly, and we might have to retire then genre after this example. It all takes place in a Korn Ferry Monday qualifier:
The 8:10 tee time at Sand Creek Station Golf Club in Newton, Kansas would provide a storyunlike any I’ve ever heard at a Monday qualifier. Austen Dailey and Derek Fribbs were paired with Luke Smith, who plays collegiately at the University of Tennessee-Martin. Luke’s father, Oliver, President of Memphis-based Capital Prime, was caddying for his son. The group struggled early and fell behind the pace of play.
It is not uncommon for groups to fall out of place on the golf course. Play is typically expedited in an effort to catch up. A common courtesy in any round, especially from a slow group, is for players to help each other look for wayward shots. But according to Fribbs, the Smiths would not help in the search for errant shots. Furthermore, the Smiths failed to put the pin in the hole after they putted out.
The situation came to a boil on the Par-3 seventh hole. Dailey hit his tee shot left of the green. Fribbs, ever the sportsmen, went to help Dailey look for his ball. Allegedly, the Smiths did not help in the search for Dailey’s ball. In an effort to speed up play, Fribbs holed out first and headed for the eighth tee to play his next shot and try and get the group back in position. After Dailey completed the hole he said something to Smiths about how helping to look for shots might help speed the group up. This was apparently a bridge too far for the Smiths. According to Fribbs Luke and Oliver Smith started yelling at Dailey about his quality of play and how it was affecting the group. Oliver went on to make it clear that his son Luke, “wasn’t here to look for balls.”
So, what were they there for? Well, the header gives away where this is headed:
And rumble they will:
Dailey then turned his back and walked away towards the eighth tee. Little did he know that in a matter of seconds all hell would break loose. It was at this point that Luke Smith allegedly jumped on Dailey and started to throw punches. Fribbs, who was standing on the eighth tee, ran back to try to and play peacemaker. But Oliver Smith had other plans. The elder Smith allegedly waved a putter at Fribbs- and anyone else with an eye on jumping into the fracas. (Oliver Smith’s putter-waving was was later confirmed by another PGA Section official on site.)
The group playing behind the brouhaha called the pro shop to come break up the fight. When the golf staff arrived, Dailey was asked if he would like to press charges. “Absolutely,” Dailey said, “I was assaulted.”The golf staff took both Dailey and Luke Smith back to the clubhouse in unarmored golf carts where Smith was placed under arrest. Smith was bailed out shortly after. No word on the whereabouts of Oliver Smith or the putter were available at the time this story was released.
But I had been reliably informed that all golfers are gentlemen....
Here's how it all ended:
Fribbs, rattled but willing to compete, had an official from the local PGA Section walk with him for the remaining holes so he could complete the round. On the tenth hole a police officer came out to get his statement. At the conclusion of play the PGA section refunded Fribbs his entry fee- a fine gesture on their part on what was a most unusual Monday qualifier for all involved.“It was crazy, I can’t believe it happened.” Fribbs added at the end of the day.Mondays, man.
So, mostly peaceful?
That'll be a wrap for now. No blogging tomorrow, but I expect to be back Thursday morning and hope to see you then.
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