Thursday, May 20, 2021

The PGA Championship - A Primer

This is being drafted, or at least started, on Thursday morning.  I'm just going to blog what jumps out at me, and post it whenever it reaches critical mass.

The Course - Color me a tad skeptical here:

Length, wind at Kiawah Island's Ocean Course present unprecedented challenge at PGA Championship

Skeptical on two counts.  First, I don't find the yardage to be very significant, as Kerry Haigh has little intention of maxing it out.  Plus, it's a dry stretch, so the fairways will run and, it being 2021, length alone seems to be of little import.  More importantly, there just isn't much wind in the forecast (at least according to AccuWeather), mostly in the 8 mph range, with gusts up to +/- 14 mph. 

Though the writer is a bit more optimistic on there being at least some wind:

Length, though, isn’t the most challenging aspect of the 103rd PGA Championship, which will boast the longest course in major championship history, 135 yards more than the 2017 U.S. Open
at Erin Hills. As those who live near water know, where there’s ocean, there’s wind.

And with expected 10-15 mph steady winds with high gusts out of the northeast for three of the four rounds, including a possible shift to the southwest Sunday, at a course that is nearly 4.5 miles (7,876 yards) long and surrounded by grassy dunes and sandy waste areas, this will be nothing like last week’s Byron Nelson where K.H. Lee won at 25-under.

Some interesting bits from the pressers on this subject, compiled here

Sounds best wind-prepared: Justin Thomas

While Jordan Spieth had yet to see the course and several players had seen only one half of it, JT came into Kiawah early and has seen it in its entirety. He is also one of the few to play it in multiple wind directions.

I'm very, very happy and also fortunate that I came Sunday morning to play because it was a totally opposite wind than it's been the last two days. I played 18 on Sunday and played nine the last two days, so I've seen the golf course in two completely opposite winds. I think that's definitely helpful for me who didn't play in 2012.

Wind direction might be as significant as velocity this week, certainly to understand where the birdies might be found, as well as where they'll be quite happy with pars.

As for this, one always need consider the source:

Simplest wind strategy: Rory McIlroy

 Adam Scott discussed how much the wind can throw a player off his process or take him out of his game. Players repeatedly expressed just how daunting the task is just in practice rounds and will certainly be on the weekend. McIlroy, the champion here in 2012, was asked to go through his adjustments for playing in these conditions and opted to go in another direction.

I’ve been playing golf for 30 years, so I sort of—it's automatic. I don't really think about it. I get the wind, I get the number, I try to visualize what I'm going to do, and then I try to replicate what I have just visualized. I think in practice rounds, as well, I try to keep my focus by playing one ball and by trying to shoot a score and by trying to get into—just get into play mode a little bit. Yeah, on days like this you can almost take on too much information. … It sort of goes back to playing golf as you did as a kid, without a yardage book, and just sort of eyeballing it and playing it a bit more by feel.

Which sounds perfect, until you look into Rory's performance in the wind...

Rory's -13 in 2012 notwithstanding, this piece on its difficulty for resort play also documents no shortage of carnage from that 2012 event:

This is, of course, understatement, like saying the Taj Mahal is second to none in terms of Mahals. Haigh is well regarded for finding the most fair of tests for his course setups, but put what he says about the Ocean Course (“the golf course itself is probably one of the most difficult golf courses in the country, depending on if the wind blows”) through Google Translate, and it actually sounds like what a traumatic brain injury feels like. In practical, real-world statistical, deep-dive analytics, the picture of the Ocean Course’s difficulty is much more stark, its relentlessness akin to the evil forces in Tenet. For example, the number of double bogeys/others recorded at the Ocean Course the last time the PGA Championship was played there (339) is nearly three times the average of tour events and major championships on an annual basis. Only three times have more big numbers been posted at an event since—all three being majors. The average score in the second round in 2012 was 78, the highest since the PGA Championship went to stroke play during the Eisenhower administration. There were 52 rounds of 80 or higher, including two in the 90s. Of the final 15 holes, 14 averaged over par for the week. And, again, they’ve made the Ocean Course longer and harder this time. Several holes could play 30, 40 or more than 50 yards further back, including the par-4 finishing hole which could set the markers at 505 yards compared to the 439-yard tee the last time around.

You can imagine how tough it plays for civilians, though the author actually contemplates results from the tips.  It's playable for decent golfers, but in a match-play kind of mindset, because you're gonna have a few meltdowns in the course of any round.

Golf. com convened their Course Rater Confidential panel:

In Part 1 of this week’s Course Rater Confidential, we discussed Pete Dye’s body of work and what he did to make the Ocean Course shine. Now, we’ll dig deeper into the course. Is there a stretch you’re especially excited to watch at this week’s PGA Championship? Any that you expect to be pivotal in the competition?

Brian Curley, has played 65 of the World Top 100: I really like the opening stretch — one of the best in golf with the strong, double-dogleg par-5 2nd, par-4 3rd with a perched greensite and a long 4th along the interior marsh. Not the ocean holes but a great opening with a very vibrant look of contrasting colors.

I agree that Nos. 2 and 3 are underrated, places they'll need to find some birdies.

Will Davenport, has played 38 of the World Top 100: Of course Nos. 14-18 along the ocean get all the attention, but I think Nos. 10-13, if there is the prevailing left-to-right wind off the ocean, present an extremely stiff test. If any player has a tendency to let the ball bleed right, I wish them luck getting through this stretch unbruised. I expect to see at least one unfortunate collapse on 12 and 13.

Good call on Nos. 12 and 13, especially (I think) if they get a wind out of the North, which would be L-R on those holes.   

Ran Morrissett, GOLF’s Architecture Editor: The stretch from Nos. 11-14 is an absolute favorite. Watching the pros try and force the action on the par-5 11th will be highly entertaining as its perched green offers ample defense. Will the PGA set up the 12th as a drivable par-4 one day? Stay tuned. The 13th, with its classic diagonal tee ball, plays great in both wind directions. Then, the holes change direction at 14 and the pros are asked to tackle the day’s single-most demanding shot before they can draw a bead on the wind’s effect. I don’t know another nine in the world with two harder one-shot holes than 14 and 17 on the Ocean Course.

Nos. 14-18 are great, but in markedly different ways depending on wind direction.  If downwind, they'll be birdie opportunities, otherwise I'm not sure that No.  16 will be reachable in two.

What’s your favorite hole on the Ocean Course, and why?

Matt Gibb, has played 45 of World Top 100: The 17th. It’s quite simply one of the most difficult par-3s on the planet. There is no bailout area — it’s do or die. I’d say it’s rare for me to choose a difficult hole as my favorite, but it’s a hole that creates a ton of drama. And if there is one hole that sums up the Ocean Course, it’s 17.

Curley: I think the 2nd might be the best hole on the course and, while doing initial routings, it was probably the one hole that was set from the beginning and never changed as we looked at options. Very natural double-dogleg par-5 that begs the player to attack angles.

Morrissett: If I was to come up with Dye’s all-time eclectic best 18, Nos. 2, 3, 11 and 13 would all be on it. Dye liked switchback holes like 2 where he asks the elite player to move the ball both ways. Can you draw it off the tee and then handle a 220-yard fade to reach — and hold — the angled, raised green in two shots? It’s a timeless question and technology only makes the hole more exciting.

Davenport: It’s 14 for me. What a magnificent-looking hole, with the most gradually dramatic green complex on the course (in my opinion). Exposed to the wind and ocean, this will be the hole that I am most excited to watch.

No. 2 is, as Ran explains, a quintessential Pete Dye double-dogleg Par-5, and a very good version thereof.   They will reach this one for sure, but the green is so perched up that we'll have to see whether going for it leaves manageable chips or bunker shots.

I've mention No. 14 to you as well, and at some point might pull out a pic of the newly-built tee box that stretches this beast to about 240 yards.

There's more on the brutal 17th as well, including background on Alice's involvement (she seems to have had an outsized influence on seventeenth holes especially):

If blame is to be assigned for the cruel outcomes over the years on the 17th, it would be directed toward Alice Dye, an accomplished architect herself and a top golfer who always had her husband’s ear. It was her idea as the course was nearing completion for the 1991 Ryder Cup to add the watery graveyard.

“There wasn’t going to be a lake on the 17th but Alice felt we needed a dramatic element at this point,” Dye wrote in his autobiography. “Since players of Ryder Cup caliber can handle bunker shots with ease, to make a realistic challenge, we dug an eight-acre lake that stretches from the tee to the offset green, which runs away from the player diagonally to the right.”

Who can resist some of those Ryder Cup memories:

The hole exploded in the minds of golf fans when The Ocean Course made its tournament debut
in the 1991 Ryder Cup dubbed the “War by the Shore.” It played out like a dark alley in a horror flick as players fell victim to the confrontation time and time again.

Johnny Miller said on the telecast that year the hole was so intimidating that a player could choke while playing a practice round alone. David Feherty, who closed out Payne Stewart in Ryder Cup singles play on the 17th, said he’d never seen anything like it.

“The hardest hole in the history of the universe,” Feherty said of the 1991 version of the 17th. “It was 270 yards and nowhere to go. Water to the right and these mine shafts on the left they called bunkers.”

Deep for sure, but you're also playing that shot from either bunker back towards the water.  One simply can't discuss this hole in the Ryder Cup context without referencing the worst swing I've ever seen a professional golfer make:

Mark Calcavecchia had one of golf’s infamous meltdowns in his crucial singles match against Colin Montgomerie. Calcavecchia was 4 up with four holes to play but lost the 15th and 16th. He looked safe to win after Montgomerie hit his tee shot on 17 into the water.

Calcavecchia, however, hit a shank into the lake and then missed a 3-footer for bogey to lose the hole. He also lost the 18th and only earned a halve. Thinking he cost the U.S. victory, he went to the beach and broke down in tears, then started hyperventilating and needed medical attention. His health improved as the U.S. won the match.

Calc's ball didn't make it even halfway across the water...

On DMDs - One obvious difference between these guys and us is their level of preparation.  They simply leave nothing to chance, as per this Q&A with Tony Finau:

On Tuesday morning, Finau met with the media and was asked which thing he would rely on more—his rangefinder or his trusty yardage book. It quickly became clear he had no idea he was allowed to use the former this week.

"I didn't ... uh.. you mean like during the tournament?" asked a confused Finau. "We're able to use them? We really are? Huh, I didn't know. We can use our rangefinders during competition?"

Well, all righty then, glad you take your work seriously.

I don't much care one way or the other about allowing DMD's, though I do agree that if your concern were really about pace-of-play, you'd be looking elsewhere.  Though many folks might be surprised at the source of resistance to them on Tour:

The PGA Tour doesn’t want anything to do with DMDs in competition, having conducted a test over four tournaments on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2017. The USGA, which allows rangefinders
only in amateur events, is taking its cue from the Tour.

“We would change in a Minnesota minute if the tours get comfortable with it,” Mike Davis, who is retiring this year as the USGA's executive director, told Morning Read. “My understanding is part of it is caddies aren’t crazy about it. I don’t think it’s necessarily the respective commissioners saying we don’t want them. I think it’s some of the players that don’t want it.”

 But this is the gist of Mike Purkey's argument:

If the PGA of America really were interested in speeding up play, it would decide not to allow green-reading books, which provide a detailed map of each green, showing direction and percentage of steepness of slopes. If you watch players who use them, they take an inordinate amount of time on the greens.

Augusta National Golf Club doesn’t allow the use of those books in the Masters, and the PGA Tour would do well to follow that lead. Reading greens is and should be an art, and giving players a detailed map of each green is more of an artificial aid than rangefinders. It’s simply too much help.

Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath.

But beware those unintended consequences:

Semiconductor, microchip shortages play havoc with laser rangefinder industry

 You'll be shocked to know it's all pandemic-related... Is there anything the pandemic can't ruin?

Players - Shane Ryan takes an interesting tack, noting ten players that need a win this week.  It'll of course depend upon what one means by "need":

1.0 - I don’t need this at all, but I could shock the hell out of everyone and make America dread the Ryder Cup

Viktor Hovland. Yeah, he’s 23, and yeah, he has plenty of time to round into form, but if I had to pick one player who is wayyyy better than the average golf fan would know, it’s Hovland. Did you know he’s on the verge of breaking into the World top 10(No. 11, currently)? Did you know he’s third in the FedEx Cup standings, mostly because he’s got a top 10 in eight of his last 13 starts? If Hovland was American, the hype around him would be enormous right now (maybe jussssst shy of Morikawa-levels), but he’s Norwegian, so he’s more under the radar than he deserves. A win at Kiawah is absolutely not necessary, but I’m putting him here because it would change the way we looked at the 25-and-younger set of emerging stars.

C;mon, Shane, you don't really think the U.S. is going to have any issues with this home game?

This guy hasn't gotten a lick of love in the run-up:

5.0 - I still have plenty of time, but what once seemed inevitable is now … still inevitable, but a little worrisome

Jon Rahm. How long do you have to be an elite player, and how old do you have to be, before

the certainty that you’ll win a major gives way to the start of the dreaded doubt? Rahm, 26, has NOT reached that point yet, but he’s also not strictly among the too-young-to-wonder crowd anymore. Spieth, McIlroy, Thomas had already won their first major by now, and Koepka was barely older. If you believe Rahm is on their level, then you have to start inserting some expectations into that analysis. Rahm is almost past the point where he can skate past the major talk with the magic bullet we call “potential,” and the rest of his career starts … well, if not now, then very soon.

Nah, he still has an eternity...

No one disputes the need for this guy, as for the probability...

6.0 - I need this very badly, but that has been the case at every major for years and we’re all a little fatigued

Rickie Fowler. I could go back and look at the first time I wrote a story about Fowler trying to break through at majors, but it would probably be too depressing. Suffice it to say that he got his first career win in 2012, and we’ve been talking about it ever since. Problem is, after a slew of top-10s from 2013-2019, the trend actually looks worse. He missed the Masters, and he needed a special exemption just to get into Kiawah. It’s frustrating to revisit this story over and over and over every year, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still a story.

I was fatigued, but then I just moved on...

 Lots of love for Rory and Brooks (OK, not that much for brooks), but their start seems unpromising:

8:35 a.m.: What a trainwreck of a start from our marquee pairing. Rory McIlroy's first tee shot here at the 10th hole just went waayyyy right. A bit reminiscient of the 2019 Open Championship when he hit it OB at Royal Portrush. But ... that was really just the begining ...

Just a little bit outside... 

Brooks Koepka, as Rory was dropping behind him, thinned a bunker shot into the hill in front of him ... and he couldn't advance his third shot more than 50 yards.

These guys are good, except when they're not.

At The PGA -  This seems especially brazen:

On the eve of the 103rd PGA Championship, the chatter at Kiawah Island is less about potential
winners of the year’s second major than a possible splintering of the (men’s) game if a sufficient number of elite players sign-on with the Saudi-financed Super League Golf for fees reported at $30 million or more. It’s a controversial concept that rumbled along for years in near-secrecy without gaining traction, but which seems now to be hurtling toward the decisive moment like an executioner’s sulthan.

On Tuesday night, a group of managers and agents met near the golf course with the League’s backers to again hear their pitch and assurances about legal positions. Some PGA Tour players, including several of the biggest stars in the sport, have been talking amongst themselves about jumping to the Super League and consulted lawyers about whether the Tour can ban them, which commissioner Jay Monahan has made clear he will do. They must understand that it would be an incredibly brave or foolhardy man who risks being benched while opposing counsel rack up billable years trying to strangle each other with litigation.

Reviews weren't especially kind:

“It all happened pretty quick,” the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. “It was like, We have everything sorted, it’s all going to work out.”

The group seems undeterred by concerted efforts to stop its progress, and it hopes to host its first event as soon as January—an idea the source described as “highly ambitious.”

Present for the meeting were lawyers from a high-profile American law firm that is handling the venture’s contractual work. These attorneys assured agents that they were combing through any potential legal hiccups and that their process, too, would be completed sooner rather than later.

“I left the meeting more confident than I was before that this likely won’t go forward,” the source said, and suggested he feels others in attendance share his sentiment. “I think they’ll realize there are too many hurdles, too many obstacles.”

This comes on the heels of recent reports that the five families were united against the upstarts, or at least able to hide behind the skirt of the OWGR:

Documentation seen by the Guardian confirms world ranking points only apply on the basis that: “Tournaments on a tour must average fields of at least 75 players over the course of each season.” On this rule, the proposed tour clearly falls short; their 14 planned tournaments are for just 48 players.

The guidelines add: “A tour must demonstrate it has complied with the above guidelines for a period of at least one year immediately prior to being admitted to the OWGR system and must continue to comply with such guidelines following its inclusion in the OWGR system.”

Perhaps the most interesting aspect is Seth Waugh's seeming schizophrenia.  He offers this ode to disruptors:

“I actually think it’s healthy. You either disrupt or you get disrupted. That’s what this is,” he said. “You know, should it be a hostile takeover of the game? I think is way too far. They’ve created this conversation, which by the way isn’t new. It’s been around since 2014 in different forms, has created change. It’s created an alliance of the European Tour and the PGA Tour, which we think is really healthy for the game.”

Which actually seems to encourage the new entrants, though this seems to be the official position of the organization that Seth runs:

“If someone wants to play on a Ryder Cup for the U.S., they’re going to need to be a member of the PGA of America, and they get that membership through being a member of the Tour,” Waugh said. “I believe the Europeans feel the same way, and so I don’t know that we can be more clear kind of than that. We don’t see that changing.”

Not gonna happen... Alex Miceli takes what seems an odd position, to wit:

Rival pro golf tour needs to get its act together

Saudi financiers have done little more than talk a good game, but with few details, scheme to steal top players is going nowhere fast

Golfers on the PGA Tour lead exceptional lives while playing for millions of dollars. They enjoy a large profit-sharing program, and their tour is built to make them richer than most of them ever dreamed.

Why would they jump? That is the argument that the Saudis must counter. As of today, they have done a very poor job not only in explaining their tour operations but their objectives.

Alex seems not to have considered that the only thing on offer are those rather sizeable sums of cash... As they say, if the facts are on your side, pound the facts.  If the law is on your side, pound the law.  If neither the facts nor the law is on your side, pound the table.

 We know that Phil is very intrigued, as is this guy:

“For me at nearly 50, it's a no-brainer, isn't it?” 48-year-old Lee Westwood said. “If somebody stood here and offered me 50 million quid to play golf when I'm 48, it's a no-brainer.”

Look, I think Jay Monahan is absolutely correct that the PGL/SGL is an existential threat, at least to the PGA Tour Champions. 

I shall wrap up here and catch you when I can.  Enjoy the golf.

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