Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Midweek Musings

With nothing going on, it's actually surprisingly difficult to decide where to begin...  Perhaps with some good news?

Now Is The Winter of Our...Content? - Golf's moment in the sun has legs, as per Golf Datatech:

Golf Datatech unveiled the results of its National Rounds Played Report for the month of November 2020. According to data compiled directly from golf course owners and operators, rounds of golf at public, private and resort courses nationwide were up 57 percent for the month and over 13% year-to-date through November 2020.

“Since golf returned from a near national shutdown in late spring due to COVID-19, we’ve recorded double digit growth every month for the last seven months” said John Krzynowek, partner, Golf Datatech. “November was another excellent month for rounds, up an astounding 57 percent over the same month in 2019. Typically, it's a time of year when much of the country is starting to wind down for winter and it can be uncomfortable to be outside to play. This year, however, we had above average weather for playing the game, continuing a lengthy streak of minimal precipitation and warm temperatures.”

Perhaps it was weather-assisted, though it doesn't speak well of our golf leadership.  For all the eons of grow-the-game nonsense, and Hack Golf springs quickly to mind, all these clowns had to do to salvage our dying game was.... well, shut every single other activity down.  What took so long, guys? 


Joking aside, it's quite the moment for our game, and one it will be fun to watch our leadership squander.  But one doesn't have to dig too deep to find discouragement:

November’s rounds data indicated that only three states, Hawaii, Florida and New Mexico showed negative results for the month. This is due to a season long decline in golfer travel to Hawaii, while Florida, especially southern Florida, was hit hard by rain caused by tropical storm Eta that hit in the early part of the month and caused flooding in some areas. Additionally, New Mexico was under a statewide order to close non-essential businesses including golf courses Nov. 16-30.

We've been dealing with this here pandemic since March, and I have one simple question.  Has there been a single case of Covid-19 transmission on a golf course?  Combined with the correlation of Vitamin D deficiency to bad results, is there any logic here?  If your objective was to kill as mnay of your citizens as possible, what would a governor do differently?

 Of course we're seeing the same reaction in Scotland, our game's ancestral home.  Golf is about all that got us through the summer, so naturally our elected officials have it in their crosshairs...

Mining a similar vein, Sam Weinman digs a little deeper into those extra rounds.  In your humble blogger's opinion, the tendency is to over-state the new golfer phenomenon:

A triumphant golf story requires context, however. Start with who precisely was driving the surge in play. According to NGF projections, there were 20 percent increases in both junior and beginning golfers this year, around 500,000 more in each category that many retailers experienced firsthand.

At Golfdom, a popular golf store in Tysons, Va., president Buddy Christensen said it was common for new golfers to purchase beginner sets this year, then seek an upgrade in drivers and wedges not long after. “That’s a cycle that would take at least a year and it was happening in four to six months,” Christensen said.

If it sounds like the beginnings of another golf boom similar to one Tiger Woods fueled at the turn of the millennium, there is still reason to tread cautiously. For starters, the uptick in beginning or lapsed golfers still doesn’t fully explain the sharp increase in play. Even if there were 1 million new golfers in 2020 who each played 10 times this year, that would still only account for a fifth of the extra rounds played.

I guess Sam didn't get the memo that math is racist, but for years we've heard tales of woe about those 5 million lost golfers, though those guys and gals played once a year.  Even accounting for the math, though, I think he misses the larger point:

More likely is that this was a year in which core golfers simply played more. It’s why Christensen said he saw a 30 percent increase in his club-repair business, or why an NGF analysis of private clubs had more reporting “a good or great financial state” than previous years (64 percent versus just 46 percent four years earlier). Both reflected how the game had taken a more central role in golfers’ lives in 2020.

“People who were playing five times a year were now playing five times a month,” Christensen said.

Good for golf, yes, but with it, a flip side. If more people played golf in 2020 than they had in years, it’s in part because their gyms and offices were closed, because the youth sports seasons were wiped from the calendar and because, especially early on, everything else seemed fraught with risk. One could argue the extent to which golf flourished is inversely proportional to the other parts of life that suffered. Which is to say, people weren’t just flocking to golf, but away from everything else.

I'm sure that core golfers played more in 2020, but I'm unclear how a big a factor that might have been.  Personally, I didn't play that much more for the simple reason that there stubbornly remain only seven days in the week.

To my eye the bigger effect may be on the great morass of begrudging golfers, those for whom the game is less than primary.  Let me share an anecdote from the last month of play at Fairview.  One of our usual suspect's wife is a successful travel agent, whose business continues to asymptotically approach zero.  As I've recounted previously, I've taken great pleasure in seeing the Fairview wives play so much golf this year, and the woman of whom I'm speaking is atop that list, as I've seen her out there seemingly every day I played, often carrying her bag.  Hubby told me that they are now talking golf over dinner, he specifically recounted a conversation about figuring out how far she hits each club.... 

Just one anecdote in a country of 300 million souls, but don't we think this is happening at every club in our great land?  We don't know if we go back to anything that looks like our status quo ante, but I'm betting that our Jane Doe referenced above continues  to play more golf, because she's now been hooked by our addictive game.  That's the silver lining, of we don't screw it up.

I'll leave tis topic with one last bit from Weinman:

What solace there is to take from such an equation extends beyond self-interest, but in embracing the role golf played in steering people through some of the darkest hours of the pandemic. The game represented an outlet and a distraction, and an opportunity for the type of social connection that Instagram or Zoom couldn’t foster. Maybe it wasn’t that golf was the only game in town, but the right game for the moment.

“Men never talk about mental health or wellness,” sports psychologist Jonathan Fader told Golf Digest editor-in-chief Jerry Tarde in his column, The Year That Changed Everything. “Ninety percent never go to a therapist. They deal with their mental health through an activity, usually sports. Golf is the only sport you can do in groups and do it safely. We deeply need to be together.”

Yes, we do, so why are our elected officials trying to isolate us further?  Because they can, though I recommend tar and feathers as a response.

The Charlie Effect - I did not rebut Sam Weinman above, in his oft-repeated reference to the Tiger boom in golf participation.  Like Nessie and the Yeti, out-of-focus photos are as close as we come to finding such a species in the wild.  But I was curious as to how many eyeballs Charlie might produce, and the answer is...well, a few:

Here's Geoff's take:

The 2020 PNC Challenge (aka parent-child, child-grandparent, etc…) delivered better ratings news than the run of recent fall events, reports ShowBuzzDaily. Boosted by Charlie and Tiger Woods, the event drew a .88 (typo above) and an average of 1.5 million viewers or so both weekend days.

That’s a nice bump from last year’s playing on the same weekend as the Hero World Challenge in early December. The event doubled its audience from 2019 and more than doubled the audience size of the last fall PGA Tour event of 2020, which also aired on NBC.

I actually thought Charlie would drive higher ratings.  That's the object lesson of life in our golf bubble.  It all seems important and buzz-worthy to us, but the audience is invariably borderline insignificant. 

Geoff even finds mixed news for the gals. Not all good news, as Beth Ann Nichols fever dream that that Monday U.S. Women's final round would be lit were untethered from reality:

The news was also solid for the LPGA Tour’s season-ending event. Played in late November 2019, the CME Group Tour Championship drew a .30 and average of 395,000 viewers. Those numbers jumped to a .47 and average of 686,000 for Sunday’s early start won by Jin Young Ko.

The weekly numbers also include Monday’s U.S. Women’s Open final round rating of a .19, barely higher than rounds one and two of the 2020 CME.

NBC can draw 686,000 pairs of eyeballs for a rerun of Gilligan's Island, so Mike Whan's fetish to have the gals on network TV seems, well, unsustainable.

The Year That Was - I'm having an adverse reaction to many of the annual review stories, most especially those that fall all over themselves in sucking up to the Tour.  Alan Shipnuck has this typical take on it all:

The following week, as the Tour reached Hartford, the chickens came home to roost. Among the handful of players forced to withdraw because of the virus were headliners like Brooks Koepka,
Webb Simpson and Cameron Champ. “That gave all of us a pretty big wakeup call,” Collin Morikawa says of the spate of withdrawals.

Then something beautiful happened: a tour of rugged individualists came together for the greater good. Players and caddies began aggressively policing each other’s behavior and following more stringent rules that the Tour nimbly put in place. “The whole organization had to dig really deep to get this show back on the road and to keep it going,” Adam Scott says.

Rugged, Alan?  It would be hard to find an adjective less apt for our class of pampered touring professionals...  Of course, Alan also elides one telling detail, to wit, that he called for the shutdown of the Tour (along with Shack) when those positive tests hit, a bit of histrionics that the Tour fortunately ignored.

 Though this might be the biggest quibble:

What happened between the ropes in 2020 will long resonate.

Will it?  Because I've already forgotten much of it.  Alan goes through his checklist, leading with this:

Dustin Johnson emerged as a player of historical importance, with a record-smashing victory at the Masters preceded by a run of wins that landed him the FedEx Cup. Before Johnson put a stranglehold on the top spot in the World Ranking, other emergent talents got a taste of being number one: Justin Thomas, 27, whose explosive game carried him to a pair of marquee victories; and Jon Rahm, 26, who has matured into a threat to win every time he tees it up. Rahm’s walk-off 66-footer to beat Johnson in a playoff at the BMW Championship was one of the highlights of the restart, which featured a series of outrageously clutch putts.

Marquee victories, for sure, but none bigger than... well, the Father-Son? 

Most interesting to me is the DJ bit, specifically how that Masters win will look in the rearview mirror.  

Set aside DJ for a sec, as Joel Beall has the feel-good stories of the year.  I think this is a synecdoche for the year writ large, in which those events in the professional game are far less interesting than those from the real world.  For instance, while this is nice enough:

Lee Elder’s honor

Lee Elder’s legacy at the Masters was already established, breaking the tournament’s color barrier in 1975. That legacy will take on a new life next April, as Elder will join Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player as honorary starters for the 2021 Masters. “The opportunity to earn an invitation to the Masters and stand at that first tee was my dream, and to have it come true in 1975 remains one of the greatest highlights of my career and life,” Elder said. “To be invited back to the first tee one more time to join Jack and Gary for next year’s Masters means the world to me.” Along with the first tee ceremony, Augusta National will fund a Lee Elder scholarship at Paine College in his honor.

Not to be churlish, but your lead nominee for feel-good story of 2020 is an event that is scheduled for April 2021... 

I think Joel is on more solid ground with this:

On this one I can only wish that he were correct:

HV3’s words and run

Days before the PGA Tour’s restart at Colonial, Harold Varner III spoke of his experiences with inequality. The message was eloquent and passionate, offered perspective and understanding. Then the most remarkable thing happened. Varner, at a juncture where the lines of sport and society are blurred, contended at Colonial. He ultimately did not win the event; didn’t even finish top 10. But with his words and resolve, with a performance that can only be measured against the pain and uncertainty and fear we all face, Varner showed us the best that golf can be.

Varner is a great guy.  But his words speak to a desire to live in a world where we don't obsessively focus on race.  The truth is the opposite of what Joel contends, Varner has unfortunately been cancelled.

Here's a DJ-specific retrospective, though you might be surprised to find that there were lows:

The highs and lows of Dustin Johnson's spectacular 2020

Admittedly, this was quite curious at the time:

July: Oddities, worries and the quote of the year

It was an unforgettable year for Johnson but July is a month he’d rather forget.

After two weeks off following his Travelers win, Johnson came out humbled at Muirfield Village,
shooting back-to-back 80s for a quick out at the Memorial. “I just struggled. It was one of those weeks,” Johnson said of his Columbus blues. The Travelers conquest still fresh, Johnson’s performance was more curious than troubling. (And a reminder that if the best golfer in the world can look this lost, there’s no hope for the rest of us.)

What was worrisome was Johnson’s next outing at the 3M Open, where he withdrew following an opening-round eight-over 78 citing a back injury. Johnson’s agent said it was merely tightness. Still, after looking so invincible at the end of June, DJ looked very, very human heading into a seven-week stretch featuring two majors and the tour’s postseason. The lone bright spot: Johnson made a quadruple-bogey 9 at TPC Twin Cities’ 18th hole, and described it as follows (emphasis ours):

“Hit a great drive on 18 and we only had like 199 [yards] to cover from where I was, 208 flag, it was a perfect 6-iron. Hit it right at it and never once did I think it was going to go in the water. That never crossed my mind when it was in the air. Just went in the water and I hit two more shots in the water, then I hit a good one, made a tap-in for a 9.”

Not quite Seve Ballesteros’ “I miss, I miss, I miss, I make” golf, but darn close.

I still think that back must have been worse than he admitted, but what a crazy game we play.

Of course, this take on 2020 figures to feature DJ as well, no?

The year in PGA Tour WAGs (2020)

I was appropriately complimentary of Paulina for her Masters attire, in which seems to have learned from her Oakmont microskirt, which you'll recall had Employee No. 2 using the v-word.  But while I saw this scene live, I certainly didn't catch DJ's...well, what do we call it, handsiness?

Not that I exactly blame him...

You can scroll through at your leisure, but you might want to give Clan Donald a miss.

Let me share something on a tangentially related note.  Remember seeing Elin at the PNC?  I'm more cynical than the average bear, but 2009 was a long time ago and is there anything controversial about a mother watching her child?  This Alan Shipnuck tweet confirms that there is, but also revisits an incident that I've mentioned a few times:

I think Alan is misremembering that Gulbis bit.  I remember them showing her standing forlornly on that empty golf course, as how else would I remember it.  But the most humiliating part was when they asked DJ about Natalie's presence on camera, and he publicly denied being with her.  In case you were wondering what could possibly be more humiliating than having your hook-up announced on national TV, we have your answer.  As I recall, he didn't actually say, "I'm not with the skank", though that was pretty much  the message.

While We Obsessed Over Bryson... - The great Bobby D. writes to make us aware that DeChambeau might be the least of our concerns:

During a rare moment on the eve of the 2020 Masters in which the conversation shifted from Bryson DeChambeau, Golf Channel's Brandel Chamblee turned his attention to another big hitter. "Imagine Kyle Berkshire," Chamblee said with Augusta National Golf Club as a backdrop. "Imagine him out here if he could chip and putt."

At that point, few people had considered the possibility of a World Long Drive champ trading in his title belt for a green jacket. Even fewer knew Berkshire had already begun making the radical transformation from pro hitter to tour pro.

2020, man!  Now you know my premise is that Bryson has moved the needle only at the margins.  What would revolutionary change look like?

With the ability to swing a golf club more than 150 miles per hour and produce ball speeds over 230, Berkshire doesn’t just hit golf balls, he hurts them. The same could be said for the 100 driver heads he's estimated cracking the past three years. Those staggering numbers led Kyle to a convincing win at the 2019 World Long Drive Championship. And at 22, Berkshire looked to have a long and lucrative long drive career ahead of him.

Bryson has struggled to generate ball speed above 200 m.p.h., so this is, in theory, a quantum leap.  Well, perhaps it's more than just theory, but Bob makes the argument for giving this guy a few sponsors exemptions, just for the fun of it.  I would think that will happen, and it should be good fun, although I'm unsure that they can do the logical thing in pairing him with Bryson.

I don't anticipate success for Berkshire, for two complementary reasons.  First, distance above and beyond Bryson has to run into the law of diminishing returns, plus we tend to underestimate how accurate the Tour's long drivers are.  Remember our discussions after Winged Foot, to wit, that it's less about how many fairways are hit, than it is about missing on the correct side.  

The other obvious point is that, while Berkshire does the one thing exceptionally well, a successful touring pro does everything exceptionally well.  But this is less about the one guy than it is about the trend lines and the effect of the one upon the other:

Patience is one thing Berkshire seems to have. He says he’s “ahead of schedule” and has received encouragement to start playing from many, including DeChambeau. The two have become friends and the mutual admiration for each other was apparent during a recent meeting. Berkshire was impressed by DeChambeau's gym routine while Bryson was blown away by Kyle's distance, including a 302-yard 8-iron that went viral.

Yup, that's not a typo.  As a contrast, Shane Ryan posts an assortment of oddball statistics from the 2020 season, defying the contention that modern players don't know how to bunt:

Jim Herman and his “old school” length

You want to know which player hits his drives less than 240 yards more than anyone else? It’s Jim Herman, the only player to fall under what I’m now calling “The Herman Line” more than 10 percent of the time in the 2019-’20 season (77 out of 732 drives). This is, of course, a dubious distinction—the 43-year-old has only done it eight times in 206 drives so far in the 2020-’21 season—but in some ways doesn’t it make you respect the fact that he actually won an event in Greensboro? This is like an NBA team winning a championship without being allowed to shoot three-pointers, or a baseball team capturing the World Series with no home runs. Take heart, all who are intimidated by Bryson: It can be done!

Be very afraid.  Not of Kyle Berkshire per se, but of the influence of the long-drivers on a game already negatively affected by the distance gains of the last two decades.  Not that there won't be some fun to be had, although Bob argues for sponsor's exemptions for the kid, while I think he'll need to show something in those mini-tour events before he'll get a start with the big boys.  Maybe this is more realistic for a Korn Ferry event, or even for one of the development tours.

I shall leave you here and catch you down the road.  Not sure when, so you'll want to check back early and often.

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