Friday, June 26, 2020

Your Friday Frisson

Shall we check in on the Tour and see how that cross-ventilated bubble is holding up?  But, maybe we'll focus on the golf first.

Dateline: Cromwell, CT - Dave Dusek with the relevant question:
How low can they go? Players score early, often in Travelers Championship first round
CROMWELL, Conn. — Boxers often spend the first round or two of a prizefight trying to size up their opponent, probing for weaknesses. Tennis players do the same thing, seeing how their opponent will react to certain shots. 
Thursday morning at TPC River Highlands, there was no need to use a fancy strategy or get overly cerebral about playing the 6,841-yard course. Four years ago, Jim Furyk shot the PGA Tour’s only 58 here, and with soft conditions and no wind, attacking flags was the obvious way to go. 
And that’s precisely what 29-year-old Canadian Mackenzie Hughes did, starting on the 14th hole (his fifth). After rolling in a 15-foot birdie putt to move to 2 under, Hughes made four consecutive birdies to make the turn in 29 strokes.
I have found in my extensive study of the modern professional game that 29's rarely hurt a player...  This assessment sounds non-controversial:
It was undoubtedly the quietest chase for a 59 in PGA Tour history with no spectators on the grounds at TPC River Highlands.
But as good as the day was, he's got to be kicking hi,self for this rookie mistake:
It wasn’t to be. Hughes pulled his drive into the left rough, could only get his wedge approach to 40 feet, then left the putt for glory a good four feet short. It wasn’t exactly a putt you’re thinking about making, but leaving a putt for 59 short cannot leave a good taste in one’s mouth.
I hate when that happens.  It's actually not so much that he left it short, but rather how short he left it.  

Chase pack?  Oh yeah, we got one of those:
The scoring in the first two events since the PGA Tour’s restart has been nothing short of 
sensational. Last week at the Heritage, 51 players finished the week 10 under or better, and there were six rounds of 63 on Saturday alone. It’s looking like another shootout is in the cards this week—the forecast is good, the greens are pure, and the rough isn’t as gnarly as it has been in the past.

Rory McIlroy opened with a seven-under 63 despite making only 65 feet of putts on the day. Viktor Hovland matched him with a 63 of his own, the lowest round of his young PGA Tour career. Xander Schauffele putted the lights out en route to a 63 of his own. Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen are a shot further back at six-under 64, and Bryson DeChambeau is part of a group at five under.
That was Phil's first round as an official round-belly, so it appears to be true that age is just a number.  Until, you know, it isn't...

As a network devoted to sports, you might have thought that ESPN would be now have acclimated itself to the new reality.  But no, this strikes them as news:
Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau put on a show in silence
Where were they last week, when Rory was sucking in silence?  There's a common thread here guys, let's see if you can find it.

But the biggest news is that the Tour got that which it needed most, a 24-hour period in which nothing bad happened.  Because no matter how convinced one is that certain events are just statistical noise, eventually the noise will drown out everything else.  Especially with Karen Shackelford and Karen Shipnuck screaming that we're all gonna die....

Brian Wacker has a thumbsucker of a piece up at Golf Digest, his header being the first clue to his...well, cluelessness:
The PGA Tour continues to balance the risks of positive cases. But which risks exactly?
I just find it a shame that so many straw men have to be sacrificed:
“It’s a myth,” Dr. Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., said of the possibility of an operational bubble that zig-zags across the country, with hundreds upon hundreds drifting in and out of its path every week. “Even in health care, there’s no way we can operate at zero risk. You have to take steps to mitigate and lower risk, but with this virus you can’t put in place anything other than saying everyone has to stay at home inside their house.

“It’s impossible to operate inside a bubble. It’s not real life.”
OK, except for the niggling detail that nobody ever argued that there was zero risk... i know that safetyism is all the rage among today's kids, but that doesn't mean that the rest of us have to buy into this crap.

But get a load of this:
That the Tour, though exhaustive in its efforts, would be exempt from reality is of course as much a fantasy as a J.K. Rowling novel, something it seems acutely aware of. Yes, officials knew there would be positive tests, which is why it made several suggestions
within its protocols to mitigate the risk.

“We feel like we put ourselves in a position where we can have a controlled environment or a controlled number of cases or positive cases going forward,” Commissioner Jay Monahan said on Wednesday.

What’s become apparent is there’s very little that the Tour can truly control. Its guidelines are merely that, and as such not enforceable. Even if in use, in order to be effective, everyone—players, caddies, coaches, trainers, equipment reps, wives, girlfriends, nannies, chefs, et al.—would need to abide. Total adherence is difficult if not impossible given human nature. Even the commissioner conceded as much.
Sheesh!  First and foremost, Brian, you should expect a call from the woke mob.  That author you cite had been deemed a non-person for the crime of suggesting the Oceania might not have always been at war with Eastasia... Please adjust your style book accordingly.

Again, the basis on which the Tour has failed eludes me.  Wacker says they can't control anything, yet what I see is that they caught those that arrived carrying the virus, and there's no evidence of transmission within the bubble.  I know, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but still....  

What else you got, Brian:
Though McDowell, both Koepkas and Simpson have since tested negative, it doesn’t take an infectious disease expert to connect the dots on the possibility of spread. We asked one anyway. “When someone is infected and around someone who is susceptible to the virus, the rate of transmitting is in the range of two to three additional people,” Dr. Binnicker said.

Never mind that many players and caddies, and those in the various “bubbles” also live in Arizona, Florida and Texas, all currently viral hot zones. Cameron Champ, who withdrew from the Travelers on Monday, tested negative at Colonial three weeks ago, went home to Houston for a week, flew privately by himself to Connecticut and tested positive when he got there.
Really, anyone care to discuss recent events that might have triggered this surge in cases.  Anyone?  
I'm still waiting for that explanation of the science by which the virus knows not to infect anyone on the barricades promoting the revolution.... 

Guess what, guys?  When they're not playing, the guys are gonna be home with their families, and then traveling to the next venue.  There's obvious risk, but the Cam Champ example to me is one where the system worked.  

Maybe the funniest part of Wacker's piece is that he actually recognizes the inherent safety in out door areas, which is where they spend the bulk of their time.  But think about the freak-out after Nick Watney's positive test...  Folks were beside themselves that he might have infected Rory and/or Brooks, yet all he did was have brief conversations with them in the parking lot or on the purring green, and you're not gonna catch the virus in that manner.

Yet, what are Karens Shackelford and Shipnuck screaming for?  That the players should be wearing masks on the range....  Oh, and that caddies are handing clubs to players.  

One of those aforementioned Karens took Rory to task for his comments about the spate of positive tests.  This was Rory yesterday:
“I think people … you hear one or two positive tests and people are panicking, and I saw a couple of calls to shut the tournament down, which is silly from my point of view,” McIlroy said. “You know, I thought [Monahan] did a really good job explaining. There’s been almost 3,000 tests administered. The percentage of positive tests is under … it’s a quarter of a percent. 
“I think as a whole, it’s been going really well. There’s a couple of loose ends that we needed to tidy up, and I think we’ve done that. So yeah, I feel like the mood and the tone of the event was probably lifted by Jay yesterday.”
As compared to this from March:
Back in March, Powers notes when we knew less about the virus, McIlroy expressed graver concern about COVID-19, which was about 2.5 million cases and 126,000 deaths ago.

The four-time major winner said “we need to shut it down” if a player or caddie tested positive. Of course, March was a much different situation than June. McIlroy’s latest comments would indicate that he believes the tour is handling what continues to be a fluid situation quite well.
OK, Geoff Karen, but you know those death rates are...well, a tad inflated:
In most U.S. jurisdictions, unlike many other countries, if someone dies with COVID-19, that becomes the cause of death for official purposes. That’s true even if it didn’t technically “cause” the person’s death.

But sometimes even not being infected counts. After New York reported its 10,000 fatalities in May, the New York Times revealed that “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus … had never tested positive.”

In California, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond investigated 194 COVID-19 deaths through mid-May and found that only six could be clearly claimed as caused by COVID-19. “We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” said Desmond
Washington state reported that at least five of its then 828 COVID-19 deaths were actually due to gunshot wounds. Pennsylvania had to remove “hundreds of deaths” from its tally for misreporting the actual causes.
OK, so maybe a whole lot more than a tad....  Though I hadn't heard about this one case:
A review of Minnesota deaths through late May, for instance, found that of 741 registered COVID-19 deaths, fewer than 41% listed it as a “primary cause.” By that standard, George Floyd, who died in police custody and tested positive for the Wuhan coronavirus, could have been counted as a COVID-19 fatality had his death not been so well publicized.
Could have or was?  Talk about an All-World Twofer...

But the biggest howler to me is that Shack and others conflate March, with spectators and the infamous Chainsmokers concert, with late June.  Everyone seems to have completely lost their minds...

Lastly, you might be interested in Shane Lowry's week, as he made a poor choice of practice round partners:
After watching some of his fellow PGA Tour pros withdraw from the Travelers
Championship on Wednesday, Shane Lowry immediately picked up the phone. 
A day earlier, he had played a practice round with Graeme McDowell, Brooks Koepka and Chase Koepka. All three of those players were among the five total WDs this week, as McDowell’s caddie, Ken Comboy, and Brooks Koepka’s caddie, Ricky Elliott, both tested positive for COVID-19. 
Lowry needed to know if he, too, should pull out.
Bad things happen when you hang out with the Irish....  which of course I've been doing since April of 1999.
He may be playing, but Lowry also is having to take extra precautions. He is wearing his mask into the scoring area and he’s restricted from going inside the clubhouse and player dining.

“I'm kind of just being as cautious as I can,” he said. “It's obviously disappointing that a few people have got it, but not that it's inevitable, but it's the world we're living in at the minute, and I think we kind of need to keep it to a minimum. … I think the first couple of weeks have been kind of a kick in the backside to all of us and to make sure that we do the right things when we're out there because even I'm guilty of it. I fist bumped the first couple of weeks, there's no doubt.” 
Lowry added that he feels the Tour is doing the right thing by playing on, a sentiment echoed Thursday by Rory McIlroy, who said it would be “silly” for the Tour to shut it down with only four positive tests among players and caddies – Cameron Champ and Nick Watney have also tested positive, Champ on Tuesday and Watney last Friday at the RBC Heritage.
Well, if you're gonna be all logical about it... But, careful Shane, you saw what they did to Ms. Rowling:
“I just kind of wish people would stop being so negative toward it,” Lowry said. “I think we're very lucky to be back out playing. I've seen a lot of media coverage that is quite negative, and I don't like it. I think the PGA Tour, Jay, everybody involved has done a great job, and I as a professional golfer am very happy to be back to work and to be providing some entertainment for some people at home.”
Shane, I think the question you were looking for is cui bono....
Dateline: Mamaroneck, NY - I tend to believe that they're over-thinking this, but the USGA has announced their exemption list for the September U.S. Open, and it seems like every professional golfer has qualified.  I know it's allegedly capped at 144 players, but it might be easier to list those not qualified.
The USGA on Thursday announced the exemption criteria for its 144-player field, which is set to compete Sept. 17-20 at Winged Foot’s West Course in Mamaroneck, New York. The news comes just more than a month since the USGA canceled all qualifying for its premier men’s championship because of the coronavirus pandemic. 
While much of the championship’s exemptions were kept intact, the organization did add several new categories, ranging from high finishers in upcoming PGA Tour events to Korn Ferry Tour points leaders to top-ranked amateur players.
Korn Ferry points leaders?  Hey, I did quite well in our first Thursday night league play, surely there's a category that covers that?

Here's where methinks they jumped the shark:
Remaining exemption categories 
  • Top two players, not otherwise exempt, in the top 10 and ties of the 2020 Memorial, 3M Championship, WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Barracuda Championship and Wyndham Championship, and the top three players, not otherwise exempt, in the top 10 and ties of the 2020 PGA Championship.
  • Top five players, not otherwise exempt, from the final 2019-20 FedExCup points list.
  • Top 10 aggregate point earners from the European Tour’s five-event U.K. swing, from the Betfred British Masters through the Wales Open.
  • Top five players, not otherwise exempt, in Korn Ferry Tour points through the WinCo Foods Portland Open.
  • Top five players, not otherwise exempt, in Korn Ferry Tour Finals points through the KFT Championship.
  • Top two finishers, not otherwise exempt, in the Japan Tour Order of Merit as of July 15.
  • Order of Merit winners from the Asian Tour, Sunshine Tour and PGA Tour Australasia as of July 15.
  • Top three finishers in the 2020 PGA Professional Championship.
  • Top seven ranked players, not otherwise exempt, in the World Amateur Golf Ranking as of Aug. 19, following the U.S. Amateur.
  • Special exemptions.
The logic seems to be to recreate the universe of players that would have emerged from Sectional Qualifying.  Except, of course, that qualifying is its own test, whereas here the USGA is just arbitrarily picking winners and losers.

Let me try to explain why it's a hot mess.  Take the third bullet above, that jerry-rigged UK series on the Euro Tour.   I don't love it, because I think the fields will be weak, but it's at least a logical way to handle the absence of qualifying.  All players are on notice of this as a way to play yourself into the event, and it becomes its own qualifier.

The bullet above on the list unfairly rewards those that played more on the Fall portion of the wraparound schedule.  If players knew that three months of the schedule would be lost, they'd have showed up for every one of these events.  I'd have kept it far simpler, and merely gond down as far on the world ranking schedule as you have room in the field.

Of course, it being Winged Foot, this is the meme getting the most play:
Why Phil won’t need a (potentially awkward) special invite to play in the 2020 U.S. Open
Why should it be awkward?  For the usual reason, because Phil ran his mouth:
Mickelson, the 50-year-old five-time major champ, is 61st in that ranking, meaning he’ll auto-qualify. He was not otherwise exempt. This is notable, because many observers
assumed the USGA would hand Mickelson a special exemption to get into the field. He’s played in 28 U.S. Opens in his career and has a record six runner-up finishes, just a win away from completing the career grand slam. But Mickelson said in February he wouldn’t accept a special invite even if he was offered one. 
“I don’t want a special exemption,” he said. “I think I’ll get in the tournament. If I get in, I deserve to be there. If I don’t, I don’t. I don’t want a sympathy spot. If I am good enough to make it and qualify, then I need to earn my spot there.”
I was gonna need to team of Viennese psychiatrists to explain Phil's reaction here, so it's a good thing we're all spared that national trauma.  

 I'll just through in this amusing bit on the current state of the course:


If I ran the world, all U.S. Opens played in the Northeast would be played in September, which meteorologically and agronomically is just the perfect time.  

Since it's the perfect moment to hold it, we can assume we'll have two weeks of Biblical rains beforehand, and the guy's will be forced to play lift, clean and cheat.  Why?  Because it's 2020.

I shall leave you here and wish you a good weekend.  Whatever said weekend brings, we'll sort it out on Monday morning.

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