We'll Always Have Paris

As I'm unavailable tomorrow, let's cover it all:

Team USA -  At 5:00 p.m. today, Captain Jim Furyk will make his first three captain's picks, with the final pick following this week's BMW event at Aronomink.

There's not much to say here, as it's pretty much a mortal lock that the three names the come from Mr. Burns' mouth will be Woods, Mickelson and DeChambeau.  Oh, and just because I can, that obscure reference comes from a 2014 Separated at Birth post from my very own archives:

If you have a moment, give it a look....  Pretty funny stuff.

Shane Ryan has the best item on both captains' dilemmas, first capturing the beauty of Phil's hostile takeover of the event at Gleneagles:

Phil Mickelson: There is actually a really good argument for leaving Phil off the team, and it’s based on his mediocre form this season. The guy hasn’t had a top 10 since May, and let’s be honest, if his name wasn’t Phil Mickelson, he wouldn’t even be in consideration. That said, if Furyk were to snub Mickelson, it would immediately become the biggest Ryder Cup distraction since Phil vs. Tom Watson at Gleneagles, and it would dominate all discussion between now and match later this month at Le Golf National. Captain Jim would have to deal with angry pundits and puzzled fans, and possibly even some bemused team members. He would be placed under a very intense microscope, with the barbarian hordes waiting to eviscerate him at the first sign of trouble. Distractions can have a serious negative effect at the Ryder Cup—ask Danny Willett (or ask his brother)—and it’s just way, way easier to pick Phil. He’s been good enough to justify the pick (the 63 on Monday in Boston was quite the finishing touch), and even though it’s also easy to justify not picking him, that juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

I'm sure that if he was left off the team that Phil would take the high road and make any contribution asked of him to the collective team effort.  Or not....

But since Phil got Alas, Poor Furyk his job, we won't spend long deliberating this possibility.  One can only hope that the quid pro quo for the pick is Phil cooperatively sitting in alternate shot the first two days....  Otherwise, incoming shiv.

Shane is mostly correct here:

Tony Finau: Finau is essentially the perfect fourball player. He’s a tee-to-green stud, he makes tons of birdies, and his occasional shoot-himself-in-the-foot moment will be mitigated when he has a partner to clean up his mess. Plus, he’s second only to DeChambeau in the red-hot department. This is the obvious fourth pick, and it’s a great one—Furyk needs to grab him, play him in both fourball sessions, and reap the rewards. (Lock him up in a dark cellar during foursomes, though.)

Finau is playing at a high level, though there will likely be one more week for him to keep it going.  But there are two arguments to make against his selection:

1. He's played well, but without winning anything, and;
2. His game is a bad fit for the golf course and the team.

As I understand the course set-up, it will be difficult for anyone to score well without hitting a lot of fairways, and our Tony doesn't hit many.  He's also not great with the flat stick, so I'm at best lukewarm on him.

Xander Schauffele, Kevin Kisner, anyone else: They’re just like Finau and DeChambeau, but worse. There’s no planet on which taking them over those two makes any sense. Let’s stop pretending these are viable picks—this year, with this team, there is no bubble.

Let's just do a little comparison:

Finau:  % FW: 53.9% (184th)  SG: Putting: .120 (82nd)

Kisner: % FW: 65.8% (31st)  SG: Putting: .564 (12th)

Harman: % FW: 66.2% (29th)  SG: Putting: .536 (13th)

I totally get that those latter two haven't done anything the last few weeks, but Furyk needs to be sure he has the foursomes teams covered before he has the luxury of taking the hot hand. 

Team Europe - As of close of business Sunday, the Euro's eight automatic qualifiers were set:

The buried lede being that Thorbjorn Olesen hung on to the last slot when nobody better known won the event in Denmark.  Let me just note that this is passing strange, given the number of hopefuls playing in Boston and not finishing until Monday.... More on that in a bit.

Captain Bjorn will make his four picks Wednesday morning (our time), and he has four picks to allocate among the following names:

Ian Poulter
Paul Casey
Henrik Stenson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sergio Garcia
Thomas Pieters
Rafa Cabrera Belo
Matt Wallace

He's got the tougher job than Furyk methinks.  And, lest you think that last name is easy to exclude:

Matt Wallace left Silkeborg Ry Golf Club after winning the Made in Denmark event

wondering if he’d done enough to secure a place on Thomas Bjorn’s Ryder Cup team that will take on the United States on Sept. 28-30 at Le Golf National in Paris. 

Wallace couldn’t have done much more to impress the European captain in the last tournament counting toward European qualification. With Bjorn watching, the 28-year-old birdied five of the last six holes in a closing 5-under 67 to reach 19 under and get into a four-man playoff with fellow Englishmen Lee Westwood, Steven Brown and Jonathan Thomson. Wallace birdied the two extra holes to win. 

“To do it in the style I’ve done it is pretty special,” said Wallace, the first player since scoring records began in 1999 to birdie seven of his last eight holes to win. “That just shows who I am right there – my grit, my determination. That’s what I’m all about.”

I don't see it happening, but let's make our first dive into this week's Tour Confidential panel:

2. Matt Wallace notched his third win of the season on the European Tour, staking his Ryder Cup captain’s pick claim. Step into Thomas Bjorn’s shoes and can pick four of the following: Ian Poulter, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Paul Casey, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sergio Garcia, Eddie Pepperell, Matt Wallace, Russell Knox, Henrik Stenson. Who would you take?

Of greatest interest is that they've included two additional names, Eddie Pepperell and Russell Knox, though I'm guessing those guys won't get much love.  Let's see what the so-called experts think:

Shipnuck: You have to preface this with the inconvenient fact that 5 of the top 8 Euro qualifiers will be Ryder Cup rookies. Plenty of guys have said they couldn’t feel their hands/legs/face on the first tee as a Ryder rookie. There is simply no pressure like it. The formats are quirky and challenging and players are massively taken out of their routines/bubbles. It’s a totally different animal than any other golf event, so I find specious this notion that because these guys have won regular tournaments they are fully prepared for the Ryder Cup. Ergo, I think Bjorn has to pick experience. 

Casey and Poulter are locks. Stenson is such a stud you gotta take him and hope his nagging injuries are overcome by adrenaline. For me the last pick comes down to a red-hot Wallace (who would be another rookie), the slumping Sergio or the Notorious RCB, who played well in his Ryder debut in ‘16. All are defensible, but I’d take Rafa.

I think I'm basically in agreement with Alan, although let me just detour for a moment to note Rafa's Wide World of Sports finish yesterday.  He had himself -6 for the day through 12 holes, with a firm grasp on one of those captain's picks.  he must have sniffed a leaderboard because it suddenly went pear-shaped for him, making three ugly bogeys on the trip in.  No. 18, an easily reachable Par-5, was especially ugly, as he left his fourth shot in a bunker behind the green.  And not just in the bunker, but semi-plugged in the excess sand high in the face leaving no stance.  Just when we thought we'd seen the last of him, with a stance requiring the flexibility of Olga Korbut, he stiffs the bunker shot to save bogey.  I have no clue what Captain Bjorn will or should conclude from all that.

Bamberger: Something old (Stenson), something new (Matt Wallace), something borrowed (Paul Casey, Stateside more often than not), something blue (Ian Poulter).

Zak: Wallace for his form. Stenson for his history with Rose. Poulter because he’s Poulter. Then I’ll take Rafa for being a steely baller. Sorry, Serg. 

Sens: I’m tempted to say Eddie Pepperell because I like saying “Eddie Pepperell,” but I agree that Stenson and Casey are pretty much shoo-ins, that Poulter’s fire and history will get him the rightful nod, and that RCB should prolly get the final slot, given what he did last time out. 

Dethier: On pure merit and performance I’ll grab Casey, Poulter, Stenson and Wallace. But I’m sad not to include Pepperell on that list, especially after he tweeted out a picture of a pinot noir bottle this week – the night before he was to tee it up with Bjorn. He’s golf’s most lovable character. 

Passov: Sergio has had a miserable year by his or any standards. But that hasn’t stopped Euros from starring in the past under similar scenarios – witness Martin Kaymer, on several occasions. I think that in match play, given his passion and past successes, Sergio gets a nod. Poulter has had a remarkable comeback year, and we all know what he and his flatstick and fist pumps bring to a Ryder Cup. I like Stenson’s ballstriking prowess for the venue and Paul Casey, for the firepower he brings, and to atone for some close misses on the selection front over the years.

As you can see, opinions are all over the lot and there may be things we don't know.  For instance, I'm shocked didn't play the last two weeks if he wanted to be on the team, though the only reason he might not was if Bjorn told him he was getting a pick.  I think current form is over-stated as a factor, so I tend to discount Wallace's three wins in marginal events and put his chances at +/- 0%.

I've shared my thoughts, so all we can do now is sit back and watch.

Who Do We Like? - Before we dive in, let me just note that this opening query in the TC panel is stupidity on steroids:

1. Bryson DeChambeau pulled away from a crowded leaderboard on Sunday, notching his second victory in as many weeks and his fourth in just over a year. And he needs a captain’s pick just to get on the Ryder Cup team! With other likely selections (Finau, Mickelson, Woods) rounding into form, could this be the most loaded U.S. Ryder Cup team ever?

Egads, if we've learned anything from the last 25 years of Cup history it's that how a team looks on paper is quite irrelevant.  Anyway, here are some responses:

Sean Zak: It could be. But Fowler is hampered and Spieth isn’t on point. Couple rookies that could falter in the heat of the moment overseas. This is a post-RC question, not a pre-RC one. 

Shipnuck: Spieth has actually found it a little bit in the last few weeks, which makes the U.S. even scarier. 

Josh Sens: It could be. But the Euros aren’t slouches, and our stat guru Mark Broadie actually has them as the slight favorite, thanks to home field advantage. Buckle up.

Forget Shipnuck, as he's on record predicting a decade or more of U.S. dominance.  But I do wish Josh had given us a link to Broadie's piece, which I haven't found via Google.

I was on the course this weekend with Ed Pavelle, quite the knowledgeable observer of our game.  On Saturday he surprised me by predicting the the Euros would win in a route, based upon their mid-roster strength (my memory is that he cited slots 5-10).  I don't see it, but let's lay out the teams side by side and see what we think (Official World Rankings are in parenthesis):

U.S.	Europe
Dustin Johnson (1)	Justin Rose (4)
Brooks Koepka (2)	Jon Rahm (5)
Justin Thomas (3)	Francesco Molinari (6)
Bryson DeChambeau (7)	Rory McIlroy (8)
Rickie Fowler (9)	Tommy Fleetwood (12)
Jordan Spieth (10)	Alex Noren (15)
Bubba Watson (13)	Paul Casey (16)
Patrick Reed (14)	Henrik Stenson (22)
Tony Finau (17)	Tyrell Hatton (25)
Webb Simpson (19)	Rafa Cabrera Belo (29)
Phil Mickelson (23)	Ian Poulter (33)
Tiger Woods 26)	Thorbjorn Olessen (40)

As you'll see, I've used the consensus captain's picks, not that it would change these numbers much.  We usually get a gift in that there's usually one qualifier from the European points list who would have otherwise made it, but the Dane actually qualified from the World Points List.  Go figure.

Interestingly, the top ten is currently exclusively Yanks and Euros.... No Aussies or Asians need apply.  

Obviously the Americans have a slight edge in average world ranking, though I'd venture a guess that the edge is less than in prior years.  They're very bunched at the top of the rosters, but not a terribly wide disparity as we descend.  Now, after years of watching the Euros outplay their station in life, that inures to their benefit, as does the home field advantage.

I sense that in his comments that Ed may have overestimated guys like Tommy Fleetwood and especially Tyrell Hatton, whose Monday histrionics I found troubling in this context.  But the key word is obviously "may", as it wouldn't shock to see those guys play tough.  I've been arguing all along that this will be quite the tough week, and nothing has changed my outlook.

But I can't see a route in these names, especially in this era of the Task Force ensuring superior performance.  That was a little joke for anyone new to my views on that subject, but I see an agonizingly close competition that will turn on the smallest of breaks and likely not be decided until late Sunday.  

Of course my well-earned reputation as the '62 Mets of golf predictions should govern all wagering.