Sunday, Broadie Sunday - The Sequel

We here at Unplayable Lies have so few original ideas that we've little choice but to recycle those that we trip over... hence the seemingly familiar post title.

The bus is filling up nicely as the laggards in the golf press catch on to the statistical revolution sweeping the golf world.  Of course you heard about it here first, with my seemingly interminable Moneyball post way back in February.  Wasn't that a time?

Luke Kerr-Dineen, who writes for Golf Digest and its Local Knowledge blog, takes up a second row seat with two posts on the subject.  In this first post from Friday Dineen utilizes the work of Lucius Riccio, a colleague at Columbia of Mark Broadie, to inform us that Justin Rose is the best ball-striker on Tour.  Geez, those of you smart enough to read this modest blog have known that since February 9th, when I posted on the work of Mark Broadie that indicated that Rose was a staggering 2.28 strokes per round better than the field in 2013.

OK, I'll stop gloating for a moment,  Per Dineen:

Speaking Friday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Riccio presented his findings from a paper he had been working on entitled "Quantifying Long Approach Ball Striking." His research involved analyzing every shot hit on tour in 2012 on a par 4 from between 150 and 225 yards.

Amongst those in the audience was Sean Foley, who happens to work with Rose and another superior striker of the dimpled ball, one Tiger Woods.  Foley presented the next day in conjunction with Mark Broadie, who was also in attendance.

Other insights from Riccio's presentation included:

Of the 26-stroke difference between someone who shoots 69 and someone who shoots 95, 18 strokes are lost on full shots, and just eight on the greens. 

What's the penalty of hitting it into the rough? About 25 percent of a stroke in regular tour events, and about 50 percent of a stroke in the U.S. Open. 

Missing a GIR from the fairway will cost a player about 50 percent of a stroke. 

In 2012, Rory McIlroy played the par 5s one stroke worse per round than the year before.

But the best part of Dineen's post is that he embeds Riccio's complete presentation.

Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

As I remarked initially, Justin Rose must be one God-awful putter.

Dineen posted yesterday on the Broadie presentation as well:

"You don't drive for show and putt for dough. It's really the long game that matters." 

Speaking Saturday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Columbia University professor Mark Broadie outlined one of the new conclusions from his new book, Every Shot Counts. In it, he describes how good putting has been overvalued for far too long.

Hmmm...that sounds vaguely familiar.  As a wise man remarked way back in February:

Broadie is constantly adjusting his metrics, as you'd expect early in such a process. But his early results are intriguing, which will rock Drive for Show, Putt for Dough traditionalists back on their heels.

Sean Foley, who presented alongside Broadie, had this to add:

"Distance is far more of an indicator [of success] than accuracy," Foley said. 

"That's maybe not true at the U.S. Open ... but overall, if I have the choice of giving someone five extra miles per hour in clubhead speed or have him hit the corresponding amount of more fairways, net earnings will increase more from the extra swing speed."

Dineen closes with this comment from Foley:

"So much of what we believe has been handed down through nostalgia," Foley says. "I look at this strictly as business."

The parallels to the Bill James-initiated statistical revolution in baseball are clear.  We'll be hearing much more of this in the future.