Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Chicks Dig The Long Ball

The rest of us likely do as well, which is good because we're seeing more of it.  Or per this Alex Myers post, at least we're seeing it used more effectively:
If you were ever under the impression that distance on the PGA Tour only goes, well, so far,
J.B. Holmes, who has successfully "lofted up."
we direct you to the first 17 events of 2014. J.B. Holmes is the latest example of driving distance being a big separator in the first part of the year. During his win at the Wells Fargo Championship, which came with a check for $1.242 million, Holmes led the field in driving distance by far with an average of 333.9.
Let that rattle around your brain for a bit.  He averaged 334 yards.  And Myers goes on to tell us that this is a bit of a trend this year on Tour:
That continued a trend of power paying off on tour in 2014. In 17 full-field, stroke-play events this year, Holmes is the fourth winner to also lead that week in driving distance, joining Bubba Watson at the Masters and Northern Trust Open and Jimmy Walker at the Sony Open. At three other tournaments, the longest hitter in the field for the week wound up finishing runner-up.
Obviously that's to be expected if Bubba's posting W's.  And perhaps 2013 was an outlier:
Compare that to 2013 in which the best finish for the entire year by a player leading the field in driving distance was a solo fourth by Bubba Watson at the Travelers Championship. A 2014 resurgence by Watson, who leads the tour in driving distance for the year at 315.4 yards per poke, has helped, but this goes beyond the biggest bombers.
It goes without saying that correlation isn't causation, except when it is.  For those of you that were around for my Moneyball post back in February, we had this from stats guru Mark Broadie:
That's the reason long hitters like Bubba Watson populate the top of the strokes gained/driving standings, though accuracy is important enough to hurt a very wild driver like distance-leader Luke List. A 20-yard advantage in driving distance leads to a fractional advantage on every stroke, and over the long run that adds up. Strokes gained/driving also reflects the advantage gained by being able to go for the green on reachable holes more often, an edge that isn't reflected in traditional stats like greens in regulation.
In fact, Braodie's analysis of the 2013 season had Bubba leading the Strokes Gained Driving category, picking up one full shot per round on the field.  

As noted in my post on the R&A's Peter Dawson, this is what prompted Shackelford to exhume and post the joint R&A/USGA 2002 statement on the need to prevent any future distance gains from that point.  At an average of 333.9 yards per drive, it seems they've come up, what's the word, short. 

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