The Presidents Cup begins Thursday at Medinah Country Club outside of Chicago, with the Americans attempting to win their 11th straight. The U.S. holds a 13-1-1 all-time record in the event and is the favorite once again. What has to go right for the Internationals to pull off the upset? And will they?Dylan Dethier: On paper it looks as lopsided as ever — perhaps even more so than usual. But this event does have a habit of getting slightly closer than you’d expect, at least until late on Sunday. It would be awesome for the Internationals to contend; their blueprint for getting there is channeling the energy of Si Woo and Tom Kim plus the unpredictable nature of match play. Look, they have plenty of good golfers too; why not Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Fox, Hideki Matsuyama and Co.? I dunno. I’m hoping desperately for a fun Sunday finish.Josh Schrock: They need their top players — Hideki, Si Woo, Tom Kim and Adam Scott — to be a firewall and then hope that the match play variance works in their favor in singles. If their big names get beat up, they don’t have a chance.Zephyr Melton: They need … a miracle? Only kidding (kind of). But without the talent they lost to LIV, along with being without stalwart Jason Day, I just don’t see a path to victory for the Internationals.
Typically we go into these things thinking there's quite a bit of talent on the International Team and, given the vagaries of match play, there's no reason they can't compete. But as the writer's note, this year's team is, well, less familiar:
Si Woo KimHideki MatsuyamaRyan FoxTom KimMin Woo LeeAdam ScottSungjae ImNico EchavarriaCorey ConnersNick TaylorChristiaan BezuidenhoutRyo Hisatsune
Doesn't blow you away at the top of the list (the first six were the automatic qualifiers), and I'll bet that Captain Ogilvy struggled a bit to come up with six names.... Of course, they're still pretty good and we keep expecting to find a chip on their shoulder....
Take your pick: Which players will be the respective MVPs for each squad, and which one player might we be sleeping on who has a big week at Medinah?Dethier: The U.S. team will be anchored by Sam Burns, who doubles as the U.S. sleeper. We are, as always, sleeping on Sam Burns. Ryan Fox is your man on the International side; this is somehow his event debut, and I’d expect him to go all out.Schrock: The internationals will be anchored by Tom Kim, and the Americans will lean on Xander Schauffele, who I feel is close to being back to top form. I think we’re sleeping on Chris Gotterup’s potential to have a big week and make everyone re-debate why he should’ve been at Bethpage.Melton: U.S.: Wyndham Clark (with a hot putter). International: Si Woo Kim. As far as sleepers go, I could see Jacob Bridgeman and Ryan Fox having solid weeks.
The U.S. choices were maybe a little more interesting, but no votes for the kid? That's got to be the pick that Sneds will be judged by, no? Especially because of this:
'Odd man out' J.J. Spaun got snubbed, so he went to Wentworth and took down everyone, including Rory McIlroy
Spoiler Alert: The answer to all twelve tropes is, "Well, it depends."
Trope 1: Always pick the hot golferExplanation: Captain's picks (six per side) should be used on players who have shown very good form in the past month or two.Aquino's take: It depends on what you mean by hot. Are you just considering the last four weeks and the guy who won two tournaments in that stretch? In that case, the answer is no. With captain's picks, you're looking at a much larger body of work, plus fit for the golf course and fit for potential pairings. If you won on a course that bears no resemblance to the course you're going to play, how relevant is that?And you have to be so careful, because some players can be feast or famine, and you don’t want to risk catching a guy at the tail end of his feast period. Lucas Glover in 2023 is a good example. (Glover had five top-6s, including two wins, in a seven-week stretch in July and August before the Rome Ryder Cup), where even before the end of qualifying it looked like he might be reverting to the mean.
For my team and most analytics professionals, we don't put a lot of stock in a flash in the pan, even if it's three weeks before the competition. Now, if you widen the sample size to at least a full season, even a little longer, and show me sustained form and consistency over that period, we can have a conversation.
This is laugh-out-loud funny, not because it isn't a valid dilemma, current form vs. a total body of work, and I mostly come down on the latter.
The reason it's so funny is obviously when you look at where these cups are on the calendar. Recency bias is a real thing, but there's no recency in late September, because the last real golf was in August. Forget who the captain picks, our idiots in Rome didn't even realize the problem that none of their twelve guys had played in the last six weeks.
Trope 4: Winning partnerships should stay togetherExplanation: Across sessions, formats, and even across multiple Ryder Cups, two partners who win should stay together.Aquino's take: I think of foursomes and fourball as two very different games, so to keep guys together between formats reflexively without any regard to what wins in either format is foolish. I remember when we got criticized for splitting up Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele in '21 after foursomes, and sending Xander out with Dustin Johnson in fourball. They ended up rolling, so the criticism died down quickly, but people get anxious for some reason when it comes to splitting guys up between foursomes and fourball. But they're so different, and, also, from a practical standpoint, you have to split them up at some point if you plan to rest guys.We've realized it's better to get guys into the matches early, get them feeling that pressure, because the longer you wait, the more the pressure builds. It doesn't help their preparation to keep them off the field. Add in the fact that guys need rest. Why even have a bench of any depth if you're afraid to use it? Another thing I can tell you is that we found a pretty firm relationship between a stressful match in the morning and not playing as well in the afternoon. I'm not going to define what we mean by a "stressful match," but you can kind of guess. And it makes the argument for having a rotation, which means splitting up even successful pairings to get fresh legs in.I would never be dogmatic or axiomatic about whether one team's success in one format will translate to the other. It can, but you have to do the analysis.As for keeping winning partnerships together cup to cup, it sometimes works out that way and it’s a great bonus if we can do that, but again, you have to do the analysis. Analytically, partners won’t necessarily be the same players they were two years ago any more than they will be the same players two years from now. Their fit together changes over time and as venues change. So it’s no surprise to see pairings work for a while—until they don’t.
So, no resolution of the pending Reed v. Spieth matter....
Luke Kerr-Dineen demands solutions, and he's got a couple. Though we'll let him frame the issue:
The Presidents Cup has a systemic flaw. Here are two ways to make it fair
Is it unfair now?
This is going to sound like I'm being a Presidents Cup hater. But I'm not. What I am is a Presidents Cup realist.I like the Presidents Cup … well, the idea of it at least. What I don't like is the systemic flaw in its design that means one team dominates year after year. The overall record in this match that dates back to 1994 is 13-1-1 in favor of the Americans. Even if the International Team pulls off a historic upset this year at Medinah No. 3, the competitive imbalance would remain.I played around with a bunch of different variations, and these were the two fairest.Keep an open mind, and let's get into it.
You are gonna love his Plan A, which is really a Plan B:
Option 1: International Team vs. USA-B Team
Again I'll give you a moment to stop laughing....
Here's his B-Team:
First things first. I need a volunteer to break the news to J.J. Spaun that he also failed to make the B-Team....that chip isn't getting any smaller.
Secondly, is LKD aware that this event is televised and that they're hoping to draw an audience? Because, except for Rickie, I don't think most of us could pick these guys out from a post office wanted poster.
The second one is far more promising, although really only in a theoretical sense:
Option 2: A mixed-team eventI can already sense some executive in a suite somewhere shaking his head, dismayed at the thought of having to cut the LPGA Tour into a PGA Tour asset and make less money because of it.But the thing is, this idea really does make sense! If you took the six highest-ranked men and women on each side, here's how the International Team would look:
It does match strength and weakness perfectly, it's just never going to happen.
Geoff is up with some thoughts on the Spaun "snub", which he attributes to a fave cause:
“It was disappointing to be left off,” Spaun said after his second-round 66 at Wentworth. “I kind of hung my hat on my experience with the Ryder Cup last year. I made it to the Tour Championship this year. I won in San Antonio. I kind of did everything I could. I was the odd man out.”Spaun was 2-1 in his Ryder Cup debut. Presuming he was healthy and the Presidents Cup is serving as a springboard to next year’s match at Adare Manor, Spaun should have been an easy choice given his strengths and America’s dreadful foursomes play.
- Americans have gone 3-13 in foursomes in the last two Ryder Cups and are 13-24-1 in the last five matches.
- Spaun’s fairways-and-green consistency would seem like, at least to most upright golfers, a massive plus in foursomes (11th in 2026 SG Tee-to-Green) where nothing unravels a partnership faster than a wayward striker.
- Spaun has an easygoing personality that makes him easy to pair up in foursomes, another vital element in a format that can create stress between golfers not used to alternating shots.
- Spaun has two more tournament wins this year and one more career major than Cantlay.
he did WD from East Lake due to a shoulder issue, so you'd think Sneds might have hung his hat on that issue.
But it all comes down to Phil's Phucking Ryder Cup Task Force:
Snedeker may have caught a rare hybrid case of Task Force Loyalty and Youth Derangement Syndrome by picking Cantlay, Koivun and Jacob Bridgeman (who saved the Captain by winning this week’s new PGA Tour Biltmore Championship Asheville).The latter two players are viewed as “the future” for America’s Ryder Cup hopes, and there have been rumblings that Tour leadership pushed for the Koivun pick in the name of servicing the coveted demo (Michael Thorbjornsen and Ryan Gerard had better years and would have been worthier choices if “new blood” was the goal). Snedeker’s picks may still pay dividends if the young Americans go on to make next year’s Ryder Cup team. But his decision to leave off Spaun highlights another instance of the United States trying to mimic Europe in a situation that’s not necessarily comparable (Luke Donald selecting Ludvig Aberg for the 2023 Ryder Cup).
We couldn't just let Cantlay go to LIV? he fits in wonderfully wit that group....
Geoff covers a lot of ground here:
The sportsmanship of these “amateurs” landed in contrast to USA’s Solheim Cup team of professionals. Just a year after Keegan Bradley and others suggested Bethpage’s greens were too slow, America’s Solheim Captain seemed to insinuate that green speeds were artificially rigged against her team and that a dearth of strokes gained data hampered the effort. The other side feasted on a social media video of Captain Angela Stanford serving beer on the bus ride home to fuel another European Sunday celebration. Turns out, there were non-alcoholic options and Stanford was purportedly plying the caddies with a nice libation after the long 36-hole day. One that culminated in a stunning win driven by over 100 feet of Jennifer Kupcho putts that will forever be remembered in Solheim Cup lore.But because organizations remain absurdly obsessed with feeding the social beast, down to showing every moment short of morning constitutionals, a Saturday night bus video showed a presumptuous team celebrating the day and an inevitable victory in Singles. Those perennial European underdogs—even with the continent 12-5 in Solheim and Ryder Cups since 2010—pounced.The Saturday episode also served as another reminder of why the documentation of every single moment is unfair to non-USA male professionals getting paid. Cup players in the Solheim, Curtis and Walker Cups are playing for free on their own time. They deserve some element of protection and privacy when putting themselves on the line.
I love his rants, but maybe a little more focus would be useful. I mean, a big difference between the young ams at Lahinch and the grizzled vets at the Solheim.
From a prior Geoff post, some quotable quotes:
Vice Captain Mel Reid on Europe’s win. “We’re just happy that we’re the ones now to take two crates of beer on the bus. They drink on Saturday. We drink on Sunday.”Rory McIlroy when asked if he’d seen much of the Solheim Cup while playing the Irish Open. “I saw the Americans drinking beer and chanting on the bus on Saturday night. That was interesting. I honestly didn't, but obviously a great result for the European side, after what we did in Bethpage, what the Walker Cup guys did. All we need now is the Internationals to do it in a couple of weeks. That would be great.”
As usual, Rory has life bass ackwards. The Prez Cup is the best thing that's ever happened to the Euros, and Rory seems to ignore what is, at worst, quite the correlation. To me, the Prez Cup wins have given the U.S. a false sense of comfort. The last thing the Euros should want is to face a U.S. team coming off a Prez Cup humbling....
Hopefully, it will be a fun, competitive week at Medinah. There's a shortage of bad blood so methinks it's not likely to blow us away, but perhaps it can entertain. Have a great week.









