George Peper is a name brand golf writer, having served as Editor-in-Chief of Golf Magazine for twenty-five years, and is currently an Editor at Large for Links Magazine. George lived in St. Andrews for a time, and wrote Two years in St. Andrews - At Home on the 18th Hole about the experience. Before diving in below, feel free to join George for a video tour of St. Andrews from the maiden Links Magazine digital issue. Go ahead, I'll be here when you get back.
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| George Peper near his home off his 18th fairway. |
George has a piece in the current issue of Links that we'll use as a launching pad for a wider discussion of the Striped One. His current piece, called The Thrill of the Chase, begins with a plea that Tiger win the 2014 Masters, but then takes an unexpected turn:
"Then I want Tiger to have another drought.
The only thing worse than Woods winning no majors in 2014 is Woods winning multiple majors. Why? For the same reason—we want this chase thing to last as long as possible. One win will be enough to restore the collective confidence that he can get this done. Heck, Jack won four majors after turning 38, so can Tiger. Sure the competition is tougher now, but Tiger’s also in better physical condition than Jack ever was."
The gist of George's argument is that he wants the chase to last as long as possible, and is thus hoping for a scenario that hits his perceived sweet spot, one where it remains achievable but in no way inevitable.
Let's work off this premise, taking care to distinguish among that which we think will happen, that which we hope will happen and that which would provide the most excitement. George dealt with the third, and no argument that Tiger remains the straw that stirs the drink, though perhaps a bit less so these days. I'll quibble with George to the extent that Tiger winning more than one 2014 major does not, in my opinion, make getting to 18 (or 19) inevitable. We'd still have plenty of thrill to the chase, as each major is, at this point, agonizingly difficult to win.
An increasingly frequent image, Tiger following the flight of his drive with concern.
As to the second, I feel strongly both ways. In the pre-fire hydrant era, I was as big a Tiger fan as any, but that seems but a distant memory. There's no question that the knowledge of his behavior, in conjunction with his rules infractions and continued refusal to open up in the slightest, has left me feeling him to be a bit of a jerk. Should Tiger and Phil end up battling down to the wire at, say, Pinehurst, I suspect I'd find myself in Phil's corner.
But as to what we think will happen, this is the fun stuff. The golf commentariat has been dissecting this issue since forever, and one wag's (sorry, but I don't have the time to find and link) premise, which has some logic, was to the effect that if he doesn't bag one in 2014, he'll never win another. Part of that premise is a belief that the 2014 majors venues are of particular appeal to Tiger, based on prior performance, an argument I'll deal with in more detail below.
As William Goldman famously said about the movies, "Nobody knows anything." So with that important caveat in mind, I will shimmy out on a limb and state that I do not expect Tiger to win a major in 2014, and it seems increasingly possible that he won't win another. This opinion is based principally on the following factors:
- Weekend Woes - My good friend Glenn used to speak of Tiger's Thursday problem, that he would play so cautiously that he'd be looking up at the field when he teed off on Friday. Now the best closer we've ever seen (c. 2000-2006) struggles the most on days that begin with the letter "s."
- Putter Woes - I had intended to blog earlier this month about some fascinating data available from ShotLink that allowed for the extension of the Strokes Gained metric from putting to the full tee-to-green game. The gist of this data is that Tiger's advantage against the field is meaningful until he gets near the green, then he gives strokes back. I've always believed his putting woes go back further than most think, as I remember him looking downright foolish on the greens at places like Baltusrol, Pinehurst and Oakmont. He would need a very good putting week to win a major, and the stroke would need to hold up on the weekend under intense, ever-increasing pressure.
- Body Woes - Tiger turned 38 in December, and as Johnny Miller remarked about him ten years ago, he's an old 38. I've lost track of how many times his left knee has gone under the knife, and we've seen a range of injuries to virtually every joint on his body, as well as back issues attributed to hotel mattresses. We just can't take for granted that he'll be able to tee it up when the bell rings (bear with me as I liberally mix metaphors).
- Consistency Woes - Tiger never used to miss cuts, in fact one of his great skills was keeping his bad rounds under control. Now it seems that his bad rounds are more like Joe Tour-Rabbits, see for instance his dreadful Saturday at Torrey.
- Par 5 Woes - Tiger used to lap the field on the 3-shotters, to the point where writers would speak of his advantage on Par 72 golf courses. While his 4 over on twelve Par 5's at Torrey was undoubtedly aberrational, it's consistent with his recent poor play on what used to be his competitive advantage. Part of this is undoubtedly his crooked driving, resulting in reaching fewer Par 5's, which exacerbates his...
- Wedge Woes - Tiger is, at times, just a horrible wedge player these days, with an absolutely perplexing absence of distance control.
Now to the issue of the 2014 venues being favorable to Tiger, which I think is wildly overstated. Let's take them in order:
The Masters
Logic: Four wins between 1997 and 2005. The course was lengthened in an effort to Tiger-proof it.
My Take: Mission accomplished. Since the last lengthening of the course in 2006, Tiger has not added a fifth green jacket. His results are a Rorschach inkblot, in that with the exception of 2012, it's all top six finishes, but does anyone remember him really being in the hunt late in any of those years?
U.S. Open
Logic: Tiger finished two shots off the winning score in each of the two Opens at Pinehurst, in second behind Michael Campbell in 2005 and third behind Payne Stewart in 1999.
My Take: Perhaps, though I remember Tiger struggling mightily with the flat stick in '05. If it's dry in the North Carolina sand hills in June, Tiger will benefit from the ability to leave his driver in the bag. But the iconic Donald Ross greens will test the players' short games, which is currently his most pronounced weakness.
Open Championship
Logic: Tiger won the 2006 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, with a consummate display of course management, hitting only one driver in 72 holes.
My Take: That 2006 performance was memorable, but how many Opens has he won since? Combined with his PGA win the next month at Southern Hills, a light bulb went on over my head as I realized that I had to change my vision of which golf courses suited him. His driving had deteriorated, but those two venues didn't require the driver, thus two big wins.
While that could still be the case today, it's unlikely that we'll see Hoylake under similar conditions to 2006, when an extremely dry summer led to an unusually hard and fast track. If Tiger is forced to take Frank off often, he'll need to be awfully straight at Hoylake, which amongst other typical links hazards features internal out of bounds on several holes.
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| Tiger removing Frank....lately not a good sign for his fans. |
Logic: Undoubtedly the most dramatic of his major championships, his victory over Bob May in a three-hole playoff in 2000 was the third leg of the Tiger Slam, Peak Tiger as I call it.
My Take: The Tiger of 2000 would have won on any track up to and including a Myrtle Beach min-golf course. Also, according to Links Magazine, Valhalla has completed a major renovation, in which all 18 greens have been rebuilt to USGA specification, a new irrigation system has been installed and they've converted to a new, more heat-resistant bent grass. 2000 for Tiger, not to mention the rest of us, was long ago and far away.
Having made my case that Tiger will not win a major in 2014, let me add a weaselly caveat. Tiger won five significant PGA events in 2013, and is justifiably the number one ranked golfer on the planet (not to mention that he's won fourteen of the things previously). It would be madness to say that a golfer who can do that can't win a major....so I won't. But it's been almost six years since he's won a major, the pressure has and will continue to mount and the level of competition is fierce. So while he certainly could, I'm guessing he won't.
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