Monday, September 23, 2024

Weekend Wrap - Prez Cup Week Edition

How about those Yankees?  They're not actually all that good, but fortunately that bridge isn't the only thing that's collapsed in Baltimore....

Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before - Another week, another.....well, here's how Geoff charitably puts it:

The agonizing loss once again forced McIlroy to reflect on a cruel pattern of playing extraordinarly well for 70 or holes only make a late mistake or to watch a competitor to pull off the extraordinary.

“Look, it’s golf and I’m playing well,” the 35-year-old is quoted as saying by The Guardian. “These things happen. It’s just the game is testing me a little more than it has done in the past but that’s fine. All I can do is keep showing up and trying to play the golf that I’ve been playing and sooner or later it’s going to end up in a win.

“The nice thing is there’s next year and the year after and the year after and the year after. If you think of my career as a 30-year journey, it’s only one year in a 30-year journey, and hopefully the other 29 are a little more productive or a little bit better. I have certainly had years where I’ve felt worse.”

I believe that "Wait 'Till Next Year" bit originated in Brooklyn, though when Rory hits 1955 is anyone's guess.  Though Geoff seems a bit naive here:

McIlroy took another tough less in his usual classy manner.

“Two weeks in a row, I've played well,” he said in reference to a one-shot loss at the Amgen Irish Open. “Just not quite well enough. But you know, happy with where my game is and happy where it's trending.”

Since he's made his peace with the Saudis, Rory seems also to have made his peace with all those near misses.  He's happy with how he plays when losing, and keeps his childhood best friend on the bag, confirming his choice of comfort over being challenged.

Backstopping has receded from the news but, while Billy Ho deserves credit for going over to Europe and playing there, wassup with this?

Besides robbing the home crowd of a win by their favorite golfer, there was also Horschel’s harried attempt at enjoying a backstop.

On the first hole of sudden death, McIlroy finished over the green in two while Horschel landed in the right greenside bunker. After Lawrence hit a third shot on to the par 5’s water-guarded green, Horschel appeared to play faster than normal with hopes of using Lawrence’s ball as a backstop. But as the eventual champion was over his ball set to take the club back, referee Mark Litton called out Horschel’s name. Horschel turned in disbelief only to be advised to wait until Lawrence could put a coin down behind the ball.

It was Justin Thomas (ironic, since he's sorta in the news this week) who famously said that he has a God-given right to play quickly in order to use an opponents ball as a backstop.... OK, I might have added the God-given, but he did say the rest out loud.

The Tour Confidential gang got around to this in their weekly confab:

Rory McIlroy’s latest close call came at the BMW PGA Championship on Sunday, as he lost in a playoff to Billy Horschel. This followed a runner-up finish at the Irish Open last week and, dating further back, his heartbreaking U.S. Open loss. He hasn’t won since May. Any reason to worry about what’s happening during this stretch?

Marksbury: A little bit! I can’t help but feel there are some definite mental-game problems at play, when a player of Rory’s caliber crumbles down the stretch more than a few times in a season. But we’ve seen him bounce back in the past, and this has been a trying year for him personally and professionally. I’m inclined to give him some grace, and hope he can get some significant rest in the off-season.

Melton: No reason to worry — closing out golf tournaments is hard! The only reason we are talking about this is because he continues to put himself into contention. It’d be more worrisome if Rory were missing cuts each week. He’ll be back in the winner’s circle soon enough.

Sens: I agree that he’ll be back in the winner’s circle soon enough. But I also think Rory fans have reason to worry about him sealing the deal in the events that matter the most to him, which are obviously the majors. A 10-year drought is a long dry spell, and there have been a number of agonizing near-misses along the way.

Hirsh: Pump the brakes! Are we forgetting 2013, 2017 and 2020 when he didn’t win at all? He’s won twice on the PGA Tour this year (OK technically once) and has been in contention a boatload of other times. I would say he’s winning at a more prolific rate than at any time in his career. He’s just not winning the big ones! It will happen.

Ummmm, Mr. Hirsh, while the question technically limited itself to a four-month window, that not winning the big ones thing goes back to 2014....  maybe Rory should skip those Signature Events, perhaps they're too big for him, and limit himself to the full field events?  Kidding, maybe.

Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before, Part II - LIV wrapped up its third season of play, and rumor has it that twelve people tuned in.  OK, that might be slightly low, but only slightly.

Cameron Smith's Ripper GC wins 2024 LIV Golf Team Championship, claim $14 million top prize

As a public service we're pleased to provide this proof of life for Marc Leishman and Lucas Herbert, who you might otherwise consider deceased.

Jon Rahm had been forced to withdraw due to flu symptoms, but I can't be bothered with that as the clock moves on.  That TC panel had some strange queries on this subject:

LIV Golf wrapped up its season with its team championship on Sunday in Dallas, and some of the league’s team captains hinted at potential changes in the future. What did you make of their comments? And how would more “team play” figure into LIV’s future (and mean for the pending PGA Tour vs. LIV merger)?

Marksbury: Without world ranking points — and a wider context for each tournament’s
meaning in the world of pro golf — the individual stroke-play portion of LIV events lacks the drama of the PGA Tour events they’re up against on the weekend. LIV’s team aspect has always been a differentiator, and making that part of the league more engaging and exciting from a fan perspective would be a big positive.

Melton: Leaning more into the team aspect would certainly give LIV more of an identity than what they’ve established thus far. Through three seasons, the team aspect has been a bit half-baked, but if they were to make it more team-oriented, it would give them a clearer identity that is different from the rest of pro golf. Perhaps LIV will become the place to play for your team, while the Tour is where you play for yourself? I wouldn’t hate the idea.

Sens: You get the sense from the players’ comments that they realize things need shaking up. What to do exactly? LIV’s greatest weakness is that there isn’t a feeling that anything’s at stake. Leaning into the team aspect makes sense, but I would add more of a Squid Game element to it. Not with blood and guts but with the potential for real and immediate loss. Make it a lower bar for relegation. If a guy performs poorly a couple of weeks in a row, he gets a warning. If he doesn’t shape up the following, swap him out for someone else.

Hirsh: I really like that idea, Zephyr, just fully embrace the team aspect. I think the whole playing the individual and team tournaments at the same time is problematic in pro golf. It works on the college level because the individual event is secondary to the team event, not so much when there’s $4 million at stake for first place. I think the match-play aspect of the team championship was fun an innovative, but it was kinda confusing and hard to follow. But could be tweaked in the future.

As a public service, let me see if I can help out Josh Sens.  This vague ennui with which you're struggling is really quite simple.  That vague feeling of there not being anything at stake is caused by, checking notes, there being nothing at stake.  Something we might have expected McKinsey to have picked up on....Are you done laughing yet?

But the question demands bifurcation, because of the pending discussions with the PGA Tour, in which maintaining LIV as some kind of team league appears to be a face-saving move for His Excellency.  

Speaking of LIV, with Year 3 now a wrap, what’s next and what’s important? Creating pathways with the Tour? Signing away more top talent? A bigger, wider TV deal? If you are running the show, what’s on your offseason agenda?

Another dreadful question.... what would have been better would be to ask what they should do in the absence of a deal with the Tour.

Marksbury: A broader agreement has to be top of mind. It seems like the only way to give LIV the relevance it needs — and a way to add both intrigue and eyeballs.

Melton: They’ve got to get a better TV deal. It’s tough to take the league seriously when it’s drawing fewer eyeballs than the underwater basket-weaving world championship. With a proper TV partner, LIV will never garner broad mainstream appeal.

Sens: TV deal for sure. But I’d also be pushing for more LIV-vs.-Tour events, like the upcoming televised match with Scheffer, Bryson, Brooks and Rory. Grow that into a Ryder Cup-style competition, and you’d get some attention.

Hirsh: It’s the TV deal as my colleagues said, but also need to figure out to get their guys earning ranking points again and that means getting pathways to the majors again. There’s going to be a lot of big names missing majors next year.

I think they should spend whatever it takes to sign Jon Rahm, and then the world will have to pay attention.  What?  They already did and still no one watched?  Then I guess they're effed...

We'll send Zephyr Melton back to school to learn about the chicken and the egg.  Do they have no one watching because of their TV contract, or do they have a terrible TV deal because there's no interest in their product?  One thing McKinsey might have noted for them is how few people watch the PGA Tour's product, which one might have considered a ceiling for them....  But they're so much smarter than the rest of us, so how could anyone not watch a league that includes Patrick Reed and Sergio?   I'll give you time to stop laughing....

Stop Me.... Part III, Prez Cup Edition - I'll just say it, the Prez Cup is a perfectly fine event, as it's almost exactly what the Ryder Cup was until Seve,.  It can't match the passion of that other event, but it also allows us not to focus on how the U.S. underperforms.  

The TC gang had thoughts:

It’s Presidents Cup week! So let’s head to Canada, where the Americans take on the Internationals at Royal Montreal Golf Club in Quebec. The U.S. has dominated this event and owns a 12-1-1 all-time record and hasn’t lost in two decades. If Mike Weir and the Internationals were to win this week, what needs to happen?

Jessica Marksbury: The U.S. would need to be seriously off their game to post an L this week. On paper, the Americans are just so, so strong. But, that being said, it’s match play! So of course
anything can happen (in theory). Playing on home soil can often be a big motivator. With a Canadian captain and three Canadians on the International team, maybe the unexpected will happen. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Zephyr Melton: The entire U.S. team needs to oversleep their tee times? I’m kidding (kind of), but I really don’t see a path for the Internationals to win. Without the talent they lost to LIV, the International team just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Team USA. I expect another stress-free victory for the Americans.

Josh Sens: Weir could have Scottie Scheffler arrested, and when the U.S. team goes to protest, he could lock up the rest of them. As Jess says, it’s match-play. Nothing is preordained. But the oddsmakers have this one lopsided for a reason.

Jack Hirsh: The Canadian guys go undefeated. They only way the U.S. team loses this one is if the home crowd gets really fired up for the five Canadians mowing down opponents. As my colleagues alluded to, match play is the great equalizer!

For the Internationals to win, they'd need to score more points than the Americans....  Glad to clarify that for you.  They're gonna win one of these days and it's gonna be a home game (yeah, I know, what's home for this cobbled-together team?), so why not 2024?  One reason is that the International team looks especially weak, so it's likely on those five Canucks.

The Americans are without long-time team-event standouts Jordan Spieth and Justin
Thomas, and they are already of course without any LIV players (Brooks Koepka was on the last Ryder Cup team). Is this U.S. team more beatable than others we’ve seen over the years?

Marksbury: No. Even without those notables, the U.S. is still so deep! Scottie, Collin, Xander, Sahith, Keegan, to name a few, all in the midst of great seasons.

Melton: They might be a little more vulnerable than we’ve seen them in the past, but it’s still a very strong team. The U.S. has an extremely deep talent pool at the highest levels of pro golf. Although this team might lack some of the stalwarts of previous teams, they still have tons of talent.

Sens: All due respect to Spieth and Thomas, but neither has been lighting it up of late. I don’t see the U.S. missing a step in their absence. And it’s not as if the Internationals haven’t lost talent to LIV, too. No Cameron Smith. No Joaqium Nieman.

Hirsh: Sorry to sound like a broken record, but no. Americans have won the last seven majors, last two Players Championships and each of the last two Olympic Golds. And that doesn’t include guys like Morikawa, Cantlay, Theegala, etc. This team is by no means beatable.

Undermanned European teams have been humiliating U.S./ squads since the 1970's, so why not these guys?  The U.S. needs to move on from Spieth and Thomas, so it makes logical sense for them to do so in this cup first, but what happens is the U.S, loses?  Do the Internationals face off against the Euros at Bethpage?

Look into your crystal ball and predict the highest point-earners (for each team) and give us your winner.

Marksbury: Scottie Scheffler will put a bow on an already historic season by going 4-0-0 (four points) to lead the U.S. Tom Kim will scratch out three points to lead the Internationals, but the U.S will ultimately prevail 18-12.

Melton: Team USA: Xander Schauffele (3.5 points); Team International: Adam Scott (2.5 points). Team USA comes out on top 18.5-11.5.

Sens: I think–or at least hope–it will be closer. Team USA 16-14. Xander will nab 4 points to lead the way for the Americans, with fired-up Canadian Taylor Pendrith winning 3.5 for the Internationals.

Hirsh: Tom Kim was electric two years ago, I see him and Hideki Matsuyama earning 2.5-3 points for the Internationals but could hear an argument for Corey Conners. For the U.S., I see Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa (yes, this is exactly what’s going to get him out of his funk) going 4-0-0. U.S. rolls 17-13, close enough to make it interesting the whole week, but still not really in question.

Max Homa?  That's a good one.... They need a close one at least, but we'll see what Mike Weir has up his sleeve.

Eamon Lynch has an amusing column that won't make the Tour brass happy:

It’s a sobering measure of how uncompetitive the Presidents Cup has been that Mark O’Meara — who retired from the game this weekend at the mummified age of 67 — was the second-ranked golfer in the world when the United States suffered its last (and only) defeat in 1998. The last (and only) time that the Internationals managed a tie was in 2003, when the top 20 in the world rankings featured just two men not now on the senior tour: Tiger Woods and Freddie Jacobson, and Freddie receives his AARP card on Thursday, the day on which the 16th Presidents Cup gets underway in Montreal.

There’s a passionate audience for team golf that thrills fans and stress tests competitors. Just not all team golf delivers that. The Ryder and Solheim Cups do, but for multiple reasons, the Presidents Cup has struggled for traction. It’s not the dearth of history — the Solheim Cup is only four years older — but rather an amorphous team identity and a lack of competitiveness.

It’s tough to rally around the Internationals without suggesting an anti-U.S. vibe, a delicate balance made no easier by this year’s “away” match happening less than 30 miles from the New York border. (As the ProV1 flies, Royal Montreal is closer to U.S. captain Jim Furyk’s birthplace in Pennsylvania than to his Canadian counterpart Mike Weir’s hometown in Ontario). And for compelling competition, there must be the possibility that Goliath could lose, and the last time that happened R. Kelly was No. 1 in the Billboard charts and not inmate No. 09627-035 at a Federal Correctional Institution in North Carolina.

Pretty confidant that this is the first instance in recorded history of Mark O'Meara and R. Kelly being name-dropped in the same bit.

This event has never quite captured the zeitgeist, so Eamon's speculation is interesting:

Next week will go a long way toward determining the future of the Presidents Cup. It’s profitable — the amount varies widely by location — but with every aspect of the PGA Tour’s business under scrutiny by private equity investors, another easy U.S. victory might force a rethink on how to better maximize product value. There are regular calls for the Presidents Cup to become a co-ed event, but it’s hardly outlandish to wonder if it will be repackaged as a bridge between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, should the Department of Justice insist the Saudi circuit not be binned as part of a deal between the Tour and the Public Investment Fund.

It seems likely that team golf will be a component in any definitive agreement with the PIF, whose governor, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, is apparently convinced that such franchises will become highly valuable. Even if he’s correct — a generous grant — realizing value is years off. Short term, it remains a tough sell, and not just because LIV’s laughably execrable product has poisoned the well when it comes to fan perceptions of team golf not organized around national loyalty.

I like the Co-ed version better than the LIV-infused version, but the latter wouldn't be sated by one late-season event.  The ladies make all the sense in the world, especially given where the balance of power is in women's golf.

But the impediments are also robust:

Any future team platform operated by PGA Tour Enterprises will probably be seeded from TGL, the simulator-based league backed by Woods and Rory McIlroy, even if it involves LIV teams competing too. But like every concept mooted in golf these days, that raises questions with no readily apparent answers. Will consumers who enjoy a biennial U.S.-Europe feast take to being force-fed team events more frequently? Will they embrace simulator golf as tightly packaged entertainment on Tuesday nights in winter? What about on nights when Woods and McIlroy aren’t playing? Will they care enough to invest themselves in team standings week to week?

And, trickiest of all, what will they sacrifice from their normal diet to accommodate team golf?

If team franchises are to gain value, they need a season that extends beyond a few winter weeks indoors in Florida. There has to be a green grass element too. And that’s where team golf collides with the brick wall impacting every aspect of the PGA Tour-PIF negotiations: the schedule.

Yasir can have his team league in a heartbeat, if only he's content to do it in the Fall, when no one will watch.  Of course, he's got those established credentials at promoting golf events that no one watches, so win-win, baby!

here's Eamon's rousing coda:

All of these unknowns exist against a backdrop of fan apathy. If there is an audience hungry for team golf, then LIV would have drawn greater numbers, even allowing for the garish theatrics and players who’d struggle to win a popularity contest if it was staged at Smith College and the only other candidate was J.D. Vance.

The best scenario we can hope for is a team product emerging that engages fans and taps into the passion we see around Ryder and Solheim Cups. The second best scenario is that if team golf fails, it should fail quickly. Because at this juncture, it seems more like an off-ramp being built to save Al-Rumayyan’s blushes and less like the gleaming new highway he imagines it to be.

Eamon elides the rather important distinction between team match play and a team event awkwardly bolted onto a stroke-play event, but whatever.

But, yes, this event has under-performed and it's hard to see it gaining traction if one of two teams never wins.  So I expect that within an hour of balls being in the air your humble blogger will instinctively find himself rooting for the...er, Washington Generals.  Or whichever team doesn't include Cantlay.

That's it for today kids.  Blogging schedule is TBD, but check back early and often.

 

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