Monday, March 20, 2023

Weekend Wrap

Late to the keyboard, I'll just have to type faster....I'll do my best to keep the typos down to no more than one per word.

Moore's Law - You can Google it if it's unfamiliar, but the gist of it is that, try as one might to arrange the outcome, golf stubbornly remains golf....  Geoff seems to get it:

Another week, another reminder of how fun PGA Tour fandom can be when a superstar fends off against players trying to make a life-changing check.

Enjoy it while it lasts!

C'mon, Geoff, how can we grow this game if we let just anyone in?  We should just let the Taylor Moore's and Adam Schenk's of the world know that they're not of our class, Dearie.

No need to belabor the obvious—limited designated events are not the answer— but Jordan Spieth may have blown it badly Sunday. But he is rounding into form and Tommy Fleetwood seems poised
to be a presence in 2023’s majors. Still, the big winner was the old Tour model where an “anything can happen” vibe makes it fun to be a fan. The juxtaposition of the stars going up against the Indiana farmboy-whose-wife-is-eight-months-pregnant trying to win—Adam Schenk—made for pretty great TV despite a return to the privilege of Playing Through.

While we were tracking those storylines, little-known Taylor Moore posted a life-changing final round 67 to win the 2023 Valspar Championship.

Moore entered the Valspar ranked 103rd in the world and without a top 10 finish. As a PGA Tour rookie last season, he recorded 10 top-25s, including four top-10s in 28 starts. The 29-year-old Texas native had recorded six top 25’s in nine cuts made this year, so he was somewhat top-form adjacent coming into the week.

I intend to continue belaboring it, Geoff, but we each have to make our own choices in this life.  perhaps turning your focus to the last ever match lay event will cheer you up?  Yeah, I know, not so much....

Before we get to the vivisection of the loser, this general reaction from the Tour Confidential gang:

It was a thrilling final hour at the Valspar Championship, with Taylor Moore birdieing two of his last four to win his first PGA Tour event. Moore had the clubhouse lead and watched as Jordan Spieth made a huge error on the 16th tee (but still made bogey) followed by another bogey at 18; Adam Schenk also made a closing bogey to lose by one. What’s your main takeaway from how this one unraveled?

James Colgan: We learned that Spieth could play a “boring” (his word) round of golf with a share of the 54-hole lead and still lose. He might be further from the 2015 world-beater than we realized.

Dylan Dethier: This is basically the ideal recipe for future non-designated events: Close finish involving a mix of big names and relative unknowns. There’s so much at stake that the results are intriguing either way, and now we can put those results in better context.

Alan Bastable: I don’t know how that tee shot into the water at 16 doesn’t stick with Jordo for a while. In a tie for the lead at that point, at 10 under, his destiny was squarely in his own hands, and he missed his mark by 40 yards, maybe more. He said afterward he was trying to hit a “straight fade” with his 3-wood but bailed on the swing and caught the ball on the heel. Hard to win in tight contests on the PGA Tour without fully committed swings. The short birdie try on 17 also looked a bit tentative. By the way, big hat tip to Taylor Moore — a Sunday 67 on this major-grade setup was proper golf.

So much at stake, Dylan?   I'm finding it hard to take that seriously when the event comes with a warning label to the effect that the organization promoting it has determined it to be insignificant.  It's pretty basic stuff but, when you identify some events as being elevated or designated, you've at the same time informed us that it might be a good weekend to watch college basketball.

Your humble blogger agrees with Geoff and Dylan that this should be interesting, less because of the bold-faced name than those two rabbits fighting for their professional lives.  

Everyone seems optimistic about Jordan, an opinion I'm struggling to understand.  Geoff apparently has the receipts:

  • Spieth’s driving turned ugly Sunday, including the only shot any longtime Innisbrook watcher knows you can’t hit at the 16th. (Five others made the same mistake Sunday.) 
  • Spieth’s tee shot into the par-3 17th was the closest to the hole by anyone in the final round (6 feet, 8 inches). He missed the putt. 
  • Still, Spieth fans have to be encouraged by this improving numbers heading to Augusta. In particular, his iron game is coming around and that new awkward look over the putter still had more good than ugly moments. His Valspar numbers from ShotLink:

The TC panel had these thoughts as well:

Spieth has had an interesting past few weeks, with a cold putter holding him back at Bay Hill, some inconsistent rounds at TPC Sawgrass and now this uneven finish at Innisbrook.
He’s been top 20 in his last three starts, but has the mix of flashes and burnouts over the past few starts given you more reason for optimism or concern when it comes to his Masters prospects?

Colgan: Given the state of his game, it’s always fair to assume Spieth will be a relevant part of the conversation come Masters week. But his penchant for the big mistake means if he’s in the hunt, he’ll be must-see TV — for better or worse.

Dethier: Optimism, for sure. Spieth demonstrated something important at the Valspar: a well-rounded attack. He gained strokes off the tee, with his irons, around the green and on the green. And even though he had disappointing shortish misses on both the 17th and 18th greens, this week was only encouraging. There’s no mistaking this version of Spieth for the youngster we saw win the Masters nearly a decade ago. There’s more effort. But Spieth also seems to be embracing his current game, for better and for worse. That appears to be working.

Bastable: Dylan framed it well — the game has never looked effortless for Spieth but of late even his best play looks like really hard work. But you still have to like how he’s trending. Spieth said he made only two bad swings Sunday — the water ball at 16 and another Big Right Miss into the trees on 6 — and his one-under 70 on a tough Copperhead course was bested by only three players in the top-15 finishers. If he can keep himself in contention week to week, Tour win No. 14 won’t be far off. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if it comes at ANGC.

To his credit, Spieth does appear to have upped his ball-striking recently, gaining strokes in most tee-to-green categories.  But while he shows good numbers with the putter this week, did anyone think he looked comfortable on the greens?  I think Alan Bastable is under-counting the bad swings, but Mark Broadie might need to create a metric that will measure how bad that swing on the 16th tee was.... and I'd add the crucial putt on No. 17 to that list.

And while we're making fun of Jordan's half-hearted birdie putt on the penultimate hole, what are we to make of that par putt on No,. 18?

Enter Schenk’s playing partner, Jordan Spieth. For 15 holes it had looked every bit like Spieth might just steal this one from under Schenk’s nose. But that would be far too simple; where
Spieth goes, chaos follows. He hit a massive block-slice into the water off 16 and wound up getting up and down from 160 yards just to save bogey. He hit a terrific 4-iron to seven feet at No. 17 and, facing a putt that tie him for the lead, missed it just right. And then came the 18th hole.

Spieth needed birdie to force a playoff with Moore, but his approach shot came up just short and spun back to 48 feet. He made sure to get that putt to the hole and raced it three and a half feet past.

“Having to rip the one on 18 to make sure I got it there put me in a tough spot on the next one,” he said.

That next one? That ticklish three-and-a-half footer? Spieth jammed it past the left edge. He finished out for bogey and T3 alongside Tommy Fleetwood. That left Schenk alone in second place. That means more money. It means more points. And it means the best finish of his PGA Tour career.

Just how big a difference did Spieth’s final miss make?

Solo second paid Schenk $882,900, the biggest check of his career. Had he tied for second with Spieth he would have earned $162,000 less. (If you’re looking for the flip side, Spieth’s slip to T3 actually cost him $243,000, although he still earned $477,900. I supposed it’s worth acknowledging that both these men shouldn’t have trouble affording diapers.)

That's a long excerpt for a marginal payoff, so bear with me.  First, when Spieth missed that come-backer, Employee No. 2 asked me if he might have done that on purpose to help the expectant father.... I don't actually think Jordan is sufficiently secure with his status to do so, but is Jordan badly missing a short putt something that cries out for an explanation?  To me it's something SOP....

But more to the point, that wedge was another shot that should have made Alan Bastable's list of bad swings... He got a huge break on a bad tee shot, yet with a wedge in his hand he didn't sniff the hole.

And, speaking of bad tee shots, Mr. Schenk's reminded your humble blogger of another critical 18th hole tee shot, Mito Pereira's at Southern Hills.  It's heart-breaking in its own way, a guy sensing a chance to change his professional life, with his pregnant wife looking on.  On that swing he gave into the pressure, but this is the essence of our game, so naturally they want to take it away... Can't let you folks see anything that dramatic....Nope, wouldn't be prudent.

Though how about that left-handed recovery shot?  The game is so cruel... Didn't think he could even reach the fairway, yet ends up making such good contact that it ran through the fairway into a nasty lie.  That whole sequence was so great and unscripted....Lord knows we can't allow that.

LIV Redux - If you wanted to create a parody golf tour, what would you do differently?  Seriously, the bride turned it on and we couldn't stop giggling:


LIV Golf Tucson went to a four-way playoff Sunday evening, and it was Danny Lee who emerged from the pack after three extra holes.

The 32-year-old from New Zealand defeated Carlos Ortiz, Louis Oosthuizen and Brendan Steele in a playoff at the Gallery Club in Marana, Arizona, and will leave with not just the trophy, but also the $4 million top prize. The win is Lee’s first in just his second start since joining the LIV Golf League this year. He previously hadn’t won since 2015 at the PGA Tour’s Greenbrier Classic.

OK, so bear with me until I stop laughing..... It is true that Danny won at the Greenbrier in 2015 (and that venue is now ironically hosting a LIV event), and it's equally true that he hasn't won since 2015.  But, what has the Kiwi done since 2015?  All of this, according to his Wikipedia page:

2019

In the 2019 PGA Championship, Lee announced he was now working with golf coach George Gankas which was netting him a significant increase in length off his tee shots; especially his driver. He opened with a 64 (−6) and was only one off Brooks Koepka's lead.[43] He then followed with scores of 74, 71, and 77 to finish tied for 36th.

2020

At the 2020 U.S. Open, Lee made the 36 hole cut, but later withdrew from the championship after the third round citing a wrist injury; he had earlier taken six putts from close range on the final hole

2022

Lee played using Parsons Xtreme Golf equipment during the 2021 season following his departure from TaylorMade.[45]

2023

Following his appearance at the Genesis Invitational on the PGA Tour in February, Lee joined LIV Golf ahead of its second season.

Wow, so we know that he made at least the one cut in those eight years....  Makes perfect se4nse that they would sign him and that he would dominate.

This might be the perfect epitaph for LIV:

Danny Lee thought he'd never win again, but was last man standing in LIV Golf Tucson playoff

He faced quite the dilemma.  It was either the C-flight of his club championship or LIV....

Alan Shipnuck seems to have assumed the role of Chief Apologist for the bonecutters, though shouldn't someone have thought to name one of the teams the Scary Mofo's?  I mean, c'mon guys, lean in to the beheadings and misogyny....  Because Alan says we can't be critical of the Saudis because of Jim Crowe or Abu Ghraib or something...

Unfortunately for Alan, he's previously declared Charles Howell, III the ideal champion, so he won't hae any superlatives left for Danny Lee.  But there was a players meeting and not all the guys are over the moon:

The insouciant vibe was at odds with the growing pains LIV is currently experiencing. The players had gathered in a Ritz ballroom for a mandatory meeting led by commissioner Greg Norman and chief operating officer Gary Davidson. Among the topics addressed were the coming drug-testing procedures and a new pace-of-play policy, of which one player says, in a tone as dry as the Sonoran desert, “It’s basically modeled on the [PGA] Tour’s, so expect it to be just as effective.” But the biggest revelation of the night was the ongoing evolution of LIV’s business model, which has led to a certain amount of behind-the-scenes consternation. Louis Oosthuizen, captain of the all-South African Stinger squad, is one of the most mild-mannered folks in golf, but he was utterly flummoxed when approached (the following day) for comment about the meeting. “Sorry mate, I don’t want to talk about any politics or any controversy,” he said.

At the heart of the matter is LIV’s accelerated timeline. Its executives refer to 2023 as Year 1, and the original plan was to hold 10 tournaments this season and introduce the fully baked-out team component in 2024 as part of a slate of 14 events. But internally, the beta test season of 2022 was judged a monumental success, based on the buzz created by the breakaway league—almost all of it was about the macro stories and not the competition, but disregard that for now—and the signing of so many Hall of Famers, Ryder Cup stars, major champions and U.S. Amateur winners. During a tumultuous offseason, LIV decided to fast-track its business plan by a full year, conducting 14 tournaments in ’23 and going all-in on the team concept, which has palpably bonded and energized its players. LIV desperately needs to build fan interest and differentiate itself from the PGA Tour, and the team component is its best selling point. But now some players’ expectations, and contracts, are misaligned with what’s best for the league as a whole. A hint at the related palace intrigue was the abrupt resignation in November of president and COO Atul Khosla.

Growing pains?  yeah, that's a good one.... Though I've stubbornly failed to sense any of that buzz to which he alludes.

Schadenfreude alert:  It just so happens, and you couldn't make this up, that they guys are now fighting over.....well, money:

Says one player, “Some guys thought their contracts for this year are for 10 tournaments, not 14. But even with more tournaments there is no bump in the guaranteed money they signed for. Last year the players kept their share of the team winnings”—Pat Perez famously won over $8 million on the season despite an average individual finish of 32nd—“but now that money goes back to the team. I heard one guy say, ‘Why are we standing on a podium spraying each other with champagne when we don’t get the money?’ So that’s interesting. And now there is talk that [LIV leadership] wants to put more of the total purse toward the team component. But, again, guys have it in their contract they would be playing for $20 million on their own. So you can imagine there is a lot of conversation right now.”

It is often said that LIV has unlimited resources, so shouldn’t all of this be easily solvable with more barrels of money? LIV could just add $10 million to each purse for the team component and everyone would be happy, right?

One LIV executive counters that its financial forecasting extends for 10 years, so a purse increase of only $2 million per tournament quickly becomes a $250 million expense that has to go into the model.

Where do these guys get these crazy ideas?   You give an over-the-hill player $200 million and the guys start to think you're made of money....

Who knew the beat reporters are hardest hit?

Indeed, the most important barometer is the press room lunch: Last year featured decadent buffets with hot entrees and a cornucopia of desserts, but in Tucson it was the same cold sandwiches and pre-packaged cookies day after day. OK, that’s not the most important barometer, but it is symptomatic of larger belt-tightening.

OK, those decadent buffets at least are the first logical explanation I've heard of why you're so in the bag for these guys.... But this bit is funny because of how hard Alan works to avoid the obvious explanation:

To get things off the ground in 2022, LIV covered all of the travel expenses for the players and (most of) their entourages, but now those costs have been offloaded to each team. That decision might be traced to the pique of His Excellency Yasir al-Rumayyan, the governor of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, which pays all of LIV’s bills. (Al-Rumayyan is also chairman of Saudi Aramco, which reported a $161 billion profit in 2022.) Norman is the frontman, but al-Rumayyan, who is often referred to internally at LIV as “The Investor,” is calling the shots. Last year he provided a deluxe 747 charter to ferry players from LIV Portland to the JP McManus Pro-Am in Ireland but was furious when social media posts made the plane look like a flying frat party. There are no chartered jets this year. Al-Rumayyan and his deputy, Majed al-Sorour, were omnipresent at the LIV events last year, bro-hugging their way through the pro-ams and hosting Tuesday night player parties with fancy wines. But they have been noticeably absent this year, a signal they are now treating LIV more like a business and not a fantasy camp for weekend hackers with PIF money.

Really?  You're suggesting that the Wahabis have anger issues..... I never expected that from a bunch of scary mofos...

But Alan might want to remind himself of that recent decision in the antitrust lawsuit as it relates to al-Rumayyan making himself scarce.  

I'm sure the players will embrace the new penny-pinching era:

“Every expense is getting double- and triple-checked now,” says another player. “Just take a look at the musical acts.” Last year LIV hosted post-round concerts for fans featuring headliners including Diplo, Jason Durelo, Nelly and, not least, the Chainsmokers, stolen away from the warm embrace of the PGA Tour. On Friday in Tucson, the music came courtesy of a DJ with minimal star power.

I'm thinking that Jay is quite happy to have the Chainsmokers go over to the dark side, as that was likely his worst moment as Commish.  

But this to me is an admission against interest:

All of this is not to say that LIV is unwilling to pour more money into its product in its ongoing war of attrition with the PGA Tour. “When we committed to $25 million purses two years ago, that was by far the biggest in the game,” the executive says. “Now the Players Championship purse is $25 million and other Tour events are at $20 million. So that’s something that we are looking at and will continue to evaluate.”

If the purses grow, it seems certain the money will be applied to the team component. “It would maximize the team values,” says the exec, “because their valuations are based on revenue. From a pure business point of view, it would have made more sense from the very beginning to put all of the purse toward the teams [as LIV does now with its season-ending $50 million extravaganza]. But that would have been a vast departure from what the world of golf has known forever, and we wouldn’t have been able to sign all the players. In time we may move in that direction—we’re fluid on that.”

That will only be possible when enough existing player contracts expire, or are restructured. A handful of the biggest stars have contracts through 2026 or ’27, but otherwise, says a second LIV executive, “There aren’t as many multi-year deals as people think.”

Yeah, they've saddled themselves with some dreadful contracts, Phil no doubt ultimately being their biggest albatross  (not the golf kind but the Coleridge kind).

Alas, I might have jumped the gun on that epitaph thing.  This is quite the strong contender as well:

Na offered some needed perspective when he described the discord as “first-world problems.” He was unbothered by any proposed changes to how the money gets doled out, saying he’s not even sure what is specified in his contract. “It’s a long contract!” he says with a laugh. “I’ll have to ask my agent.” In the perfect coda to this moment in professional golf, Na adds, “There is a shit-ton of money out here, and I already got a shit-ton. If you play well, you’re gonna win a shit-ton more. I’m not worrying about the details.”

Alas, you'll get that shit-ton of money even if you don't play well, the option most of their big names seem to have taken.

Of course, Mr. Na will limit his financial concerns to those 48 guys:

But I for one did not have those scary mofos turning into beancounters on my bingo card.... So, that might be the most interesting takeaway from Return to Dove Mountain.

I haven't verified the above tweet, nor this one as well:

Why do you think they're making all depositors whole?  Other wise Callaway or Billy Walters would have to bail him out.

 But Alan felt a tingle up his leg that he called a buzz.  He doesn't seem to have had much company, at least per this early report:

LIV Golf’s TV ratings somehow get worse with Tucson event

Exactly what I'd expect, once those who tuned into Mayakoba just to see what it was all about had their curiosity sated:

Remember when LIV Golf was supposed to take over the sport?

It’s definitely not doing that with it’s television ratings so far on The CW Network.

According to a report, the ratings spiraled downward during its second event of the year this weekend in Tucson, Ariz.

Kevin Van Valkenburg of the golf-centric No Laying Up reports that LIV Golf scored a 0.14 rating in the key 18-49 demographic across 33 markets from their Arizona-based showcase on Saturday.

It’s a worse performance than just three weeks prior.

I'm sure we'll see a follow-up similar to that after Mayakoba, informing us that every human being in North America tuned in to the streaming broadcast...  But those 120 million homes that can access the CW seem stubbornly resistant to the charms of Golf, But Louder™.  Who coulda seen that coming?

I shall have to leave you here and pick up the thread later this week.

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