Thursday Theses

Hope you didn't miss me too badly yesterday.  We've got much to cover, so let's not dilly dally any further...

It's Official - After exhausting all other options, our various golf organizations, those that Shack refers to as The Five Families, have announced that they will do the only logical thing:

In a golf season unlike any before it, one of the few big-time events unaffected by the coronavirus pandemic was the Ryder Cup — until now. 

The PGA of America and Ryder Cup Europe announced Wednesday morning that the biennial team event between the U.S. and Europe will be postponed to 2021. The announcement comes after months of speculation that the event would be pushed back by a year. 

This is the first time golf’s premier team event has been postponed since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. The Ryder Cup was scheduled to be played Sept. 22-27 at Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, Wis., and will now be played Sept. 21-26, 2021. 

Because of the rescheduled Ryder Cup, the Presidents Cup, which was originally scheduled for Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2021, at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., will be pushed back until Sept. 19-25, 2022.

OK, guys, but I had that figured out in March.  Though since none of the checks are made out to me, I admittedly have a less compromised take on things.  So, what took them so long?  Well, it's a bit complicated, and we're left to infer much from the limited peeks we get behind the curtain.

Shack has this fun post up about the Kumbaya announcement, though he's a bit vague on his sources and violates blogging protocol with the absence of any links.  But this was Seth Waugh's take from the Zoom announcement involving both affected tours:

SETH WAUGH: Well, thanks, Julius. It's good to be with everybody this morning, this afternoon and be with our great partners Guy and Jay and everyone out there, so thanks

everyone for taking the time. I remember literally my first day on the job was about 21 months ago in Paris at the beginning of the Ryder Cup,and I was sitting in the stands for that incredible moment of the Ryder Cup, that first shot on the first day, and the flags are waving and people are singing,and jets are flying over. It's one of those incredible, iconic moments in sports, and Michael Jordan is kind of right next to us and I was sitting right next to Darrell Crall, who's our chief operating officer, and he could see that look in my eye and he goes, yeah, it's an awesome responsibility, isn't it.And you realize that that's what we have, right. It's a gift from our forebears, this incredible exhibition that brings out so much passion.So to answer your last question first, it was a very tough decision. I think people think this is -- it might be easier than it is, but frankly since the speculation started a couple months ago in the press and elsewhere that Ryder Cup would be postponed, we've kind of done everything we could to make it one of those kind of Dewey-beats-Truman headlines, that we really wanted to play this, and it's not -- when I say that,not because where the rumors came from. That's great; that's what makes the Ryder Cup so special. It's the passion that it arouses, the tribalism, the nationalism. It's news even when it's not news, and that's the beauty of this incredible event. So we tried everything we could to make it happen because it would have been such a special year given what everybody has gone through to have pulled it off.

To think that I had been reliably informed that tribalism is a bad thing... Not to mention that rather strange Dewey-Truman citation.  

But Seth, I'm not sure it's being perceived quite as you think.  Mostly we've seen the major golfing organizations protecting their feed lots, not always the nest look.  You seemed quite willing to compromise all that intensity and, dare I say, tribalism, as long as the cash register would continue to go ka-ching.

Alas, Seth isn't finished, as it's important that we understand how he's suffered for us:

We hired an infectious disease expert to advise us. We've talked to the CDC. We've talked to the Broad Institute, we've talked to Scientists versus COVID, the governor of Wisconsin, the county of Sheboygan, obviously our great partners constantly with the TOUR, Ryder Cup Europe, our hosts, the Kohlers, our broadcast partners at NBC. We called the captains. We called many of the players. We talked to some fans. I even went and spoke to Mark Murphy at the Packers, who obviously had some what we thought would be pretty good local information to see what they were thinking, and his perspective was, you know, we hope to play and we hope to play with fans at some point, maybe start with 25 percent and go from there,and I said, we actually need to build Lambeau Field between now and September. And he kind of paused and he said to me, he goes, boy, that's really complicated. He said, I think you might have the hardest decision to make of anybody I've talked to since this thing started, and I said, well, thanks very much. That's very helpful.

With great power comes great responsibility...Jay Monahan seems equally clueless, I think you'll agree:

So I think this is a really good solution for players. For us, one of the hard conversations that I had was with Trevor Immelman, captain of the international side,recognizing that now it's a year for him, but as we talked and as he said, if the shoe were on the other foot and we were going to these two organizations, you know, they would respond the same way, and that's the beauty of our sport and that's the beauty of the way that we work together, and this is the right decision for the Ryder Cup, therefore it's the right decision for the Presidents Cup, and we're going to be supportive of it.

Pretty rich, given that Jay's refusal to push the Prez Cup to 2023 seemed to be the immovable object through most of those discussions.  And, as Shack notes, he could only have the one "hard conversation", because it's so far out on the event horizon, that no U.S. captain has yet been named.  

But now Jay's putting a smiley-face on it:

“We are confident the move will give us even more runway as we bring the Presidents Cup to Charlotte in 2022.”

Did you actually need runway for that lesser event?  Though there is one venue that perhaps could use extra "runway", as the Euro Tour's Guy Kinnings lets slip (he's the guy you don't recognize in the photo above.  Could be confused for Keith Pelley, though without the signature primary color glass frames):

The announcement is also good for the brand of the Ryder Cup as a whole, as it allows us to plan the match to be played in front of a full house in September'21, creating that wonderful atmosphere that Seth described that he saw in Paris that makes the Ryder Cup the envy of many around the world.It also will allow for a full qualification process for both teams, ensuring the 24 best players will be in action for Europe and for the U.S. in 15 months' time. Indeed the changes to our qualification process have just been announced ahead of the resumption of the European Tour in Austria tomorrow morning.Finally, as regards Ryder Cup Europe, it's great news for our future venues. Although plans in Marco Simone remain firmly on schedule, today's news that the 44th Ryder Cup will now take place in 2023 instead of 2022will give Italy, a country which has an amazing history of staging very special sporting events, extra time toprepare for hosting golf's greatest team event in what will be an extraordinary occasion in Rome in just overthree years' time.

No sooner had they been awarded the event, than they were instructed to update all 18 holes of their golf course.

The required read du jour is from John Huggan:

What the Ryder Cup postponement means for the European Tour's financial health

 John doesn't pull many punches:

Forget the bragging rights. Forget the satisfaction that comes with victory at nine of the last 12 Ryder Cups over the big, bad Americans and their economically superior circuit.

Those relatively fleeting baubles belong to the European players. But for the European Tour—on which the vast majority of those men started their professional careers—things are more serious, more life-changing. For the Wentworth, England-based organization, the biennial contest between Old and New Worlds isn’t merely about pride. It’s about money. Lots of money. Survival money.

Wednesday’s postponement of the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits to 2021, combined with the shift of Europe’s next “home game” to 2023, impacts greatly on that stark fact. A 12-month delay to the seven- and eight-figure windfalls the European Tour receives in the years of the event—and needs to continue in anything like its familiar form—has potentially severe implications. Especially in an economic environment that is so uncertain.

The tour’s focus on finance has long been obvious, ever since the matches became truly competitive almost four decades ago. The lead example: Once played over quality courses like Muirfield, Royal Birkdale, Royal Lytham and Walton Heath, the choice of Ryder Cup venues in Europe since 1985 has been decided solely by hard cash.

The Belfry. Valderrama. The K Club. Celtic Manor. The PGA Centenary Course at Gleneagles. Le Golf National. All have hosted the biggest event in golf outside of the majors over the past 35 years. And all because of money. When it comes to Ryder Cups in Europe, the highest bidder always wins, no matter what happens between tees and greens.

Not that the U.S. venues are much better...

The Euro Tour is in a world of hurt, but John is the first to detail the underlying economics:

That cyclical nature of the tour’s finances is illustrated by the accounts of Ryder Cup Europe LLP—60 percent of which is owned by the European Tour. The 2018 matches in France helped generate an operating profit of £25 million for the partnership. Operating earnings in the previous three years totaled just £7.2 million. And this was merely the continuation of an established trend. In 2010, when the Ryder Cup was played in Wales, the European Tour made more than £14 million in pre-tax profit. A year later, it lost more than £2.2 million. Indeed, the tour ran at a loss in each of the non-Ryder Cup years from 2011-’18.

As I've noted, the trade-off seemed always to be between a lesser event this year, vs. a full-frontal Ryder Cup in 2021.  As John further notes, this would have hit the two sides differently based upon the pre-existing arrangements for how the money is whacked up:

“There is a formula in place,” says a source familiar with the inner workings of the overall strategy. “In terms of broadcast and media rights, the Americans this year will

have had world rights excluding Europe. So the European Tour’s main income for this year would have been the television rights within Europe. All the costs of staging will have been born by the PGA of America, who would have retained all income from tickets and merchandising. The reverse is true in Europe.”

As much as they didn’t want it to happen, a 12-month postponement of this year’s contest is something Pelley and his team had been preparing for.

“The financial implications aren’t anything like as bad as some would like to think,” says a source with close knowledge of the tour. “There is so much guaranteed income from the Ryder Cup. If the tour can’t secure finance against that, they’re not doing a very good job. The Sky [Sports TV] money will be guaranteed. The gate money will be guaranteed. So they’ll borrow against it early. It’s a problem, but not a big problem. It’s a problem for the accounts department as opposed to a problem for Pelley.”

It always seemed an easy decision to me, and for a number of reasons.  Better to defer and preserve the unique aura of the event, rather than potentially diminishing it through holding a watered-down version of it this year.

Wither the R&A -  A unique opportunity to catch up on all things royal and/or ancient, especially as we're on the subject of European golf cashing big checks.  

I kind of wonder how things look to Mr. Slumbers and his team these days.  On the one hand, the other three major championships are moving forward, albeit increasingly likely without spectators on site (seems a done deal for the first two, though Augusta in November might yet still surprise), so they've taken themselves out of the golf discussion for 2020.  On the other hand, that sweet business interruption claim check cleared?  Oh, who am I kidding, that check with many commas cleared, and everything else is just background noise...

Concerned that we might forget about them, they've announced this that I think we can all agree is far better than an Open Championship (H/T Mark W.):

THE R&A TO MARK ‘OPEN WEEK’ WITH CELEBRATORY BROADCAST OF ‘THE OPEN FOR THE AGES’ 

6 July 2020, St Andrews, Scotland: The R&A is inviting golf fans around the world to take part in a very special celebration of golf’s original championship following the cancellation of The Open this year. 

‘The Open for The Ages’ will bring together many of golf’s greatest champions for the

first time to compete against each other over the Old Course at St Andrews in a compelling and innovative three-hour broadcast production.

This exclusive edition of The Open features 50 years of archive footage expertly edited and woven together with modern graphics and new commentary to imagine a Championship contested by the legends of the sport including Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Seve Ballesteros, Tom Watson, Sir Nick Faldo and Rory McIlroy. 

‘The Open for The Ages’ will culminate in a final round programme that will air on Sunday 19 July when it will be broadcast globally to fans around the world on TV, TheOpen.com and The Open’s social media channels. The broadcast is being supported by HSBC and NTT DATA, both Patrons of The Open. 

Anticipation and excitement for the final round programme will build up from Thursday 16 to Saturday 18 July when coverage of the first three rounds of ‘The Open for The Ages’ will be provided by in-play clips, live leaderboards and end of play highlights across The Open’s social media channels. 

The winner of ‘The Open for The Ages’ will be determined by a fan vote, which has registered more than 10,000 responses, and a data model developed in partnership with NTT DATA that utilises player career statistics alongside the input by fans to calculate the Champion.

Sure, they can hold our attention over four days with a...compilation of film clips?  Good luck with that, gents.  Can we arrange for some of the famous Russian bots to hack this election?  How about Ben Curtis as your winner?

On a related note, I found this news curious...  See if you react in a similar fashion:

The Women's British Open at Royal Troon, Scotland, is set to be played behind closed doors from Aug. 20-23, the R&A announced on Tuesday. 

2019 champion Hinako Shibuno.

The tournament will be the first women's major to return after the coronavirus pandemic halted play in April, providing the "necessary approvals" are secured.

"The AIG Women's British Open is important to the success of women's professional golf," Martin Slumbers, Chief Executive of The R&A, said. "We have been working closely with our title sponsor AIG, Visit Scotland, Royal Troon and our key advisors to find a way for the Championship to be played safely this year. 

"We believe that playing the AIG Women's British Open is a significant step for players whose playing opportunities have been severely impacted this year. As they compete to be the 2020 champion in historic circumstances, these athletes will continue to inspire golfers and sports fans around the world, who will be closely following events from Royal Troon on TV and social media."

And that differs from the Open Championship how?  Ah yes, this one we might as well play, because no one will write us a big check to make it go away...

Of course, we can't just implement a testing system, we have to promise that which can't be assured:

As part of COVID-19 safety protocols, the Championship will create a "bio secure zone," and allow a reduced number of people who are essential to the operation, including players, caddies, officials, and staging staff.

To be allowed on-site, a negative COVID-19 test from an authorised testing centre must be returned, and in addition to limited movements between the golf course and the hotel, all players and staff will be subject to further tests and temperature checks "to maintain the integrity of the zone and the health of those within it."

I sleep better at night knowing that the ladies will be bio-secure...  However, I obviously missed a story, because the R&A never previously controlled this event.  Shack has this in his post:

The R&A has confirmed plans to move ahead with the Women’s British Open in Scotland (now under their control but curiously still not subjected to The Open branding).

Seems sexist to not allow it to share in that ubiquitous Open branding... Especially as they're going to a lot of bother to build ladies' loos in their iconic clubhouse...I'm glad the ladies get to play their event, and they'll also play their Scottish Open the week prior.  Here's a happy reaction from one of those that get it:

Stay and go there after the events.  No issue getting tee times...

But how much do I love that she knows Elie and Archerfield (one of the few your humble blogger has not played).

Bryson In Full - I'm a little beat down by it all as well.  The more so as he doubles down on demands that we respect his zone of privacy.  Dylan Dethier has been giving letter grades in all sorts of cases, though the interest here is more his compilation of data:

Insane gains: A+ 

The game has changed. At least, it feels that way. A few facts:

-Per Justin Ray, until this week, the longest average driving distance by a tournament winner was 341.5 by Tiger Woods at the 2005 Open. DeChambeau blew that number out of the water and finished at 350.6 yards.

-DeChambeau is 69-under since the Tour’s restart, 20 shots ahead of nearest competitor Viktor Hovland (-49). 

-Per Lou Stagner, DeChambeau is 6.8% longer off the tee than he was in 2019 (and probably more than that once the data catches up). There’s effectively nobody else who has made a transformation of that magnitude and had this type of success (major equipment advances excluded). 

-Beginning the week, DeChambeau was still at the edge of the first tier for futures odds for major championships. Now? He’s the favorite, or at least darn close, across all major sportsbooks for the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open and this fall’s Masters.

That first bit is likely from the two measured holes, so is not comprehensive.  But we're comparing inland golf to links turf (and Old Course turf at that), so it's pretty staggering...But when you're already sending it 300 yards, 6.8% becomes a real number...

One of the points I tried to make earlier in the week was our lack of understanding as to how Bryson's ungodly length will play on certain golf courses.  To me, the revelation has been that tight, tree lined golf courses perhaps no longer can constrain the beasts, because that can simply take it over the trees and cut off doglegs.  But while I was trying to imagine how Bryson might attach Winged Foot, he was happy enough to share his game plan for another venue:

 
So, for example, carrying that bunker on No. 2:

334?  So just a little chip driver?

Drive that third green?

This is one of the trickier greens, even by the standards of ANGC.  I haven't seen much benefit to putting a ball close to the green, most notably with that Sunday left pin location.  But this might actually makes sense for Bryson, because it plays away from his biggest weakness, distance control with his wedges.

As for No. 7, this is likely the hole most affected by the decades of Tiger-proofing.  Take a look:

Folks like Phil hate the changes to this hole.  Always intended to be a drive and pitch birdie opportunity, the added trees have narrowed the landing area in a manner that likely has the Good Doctor spinning in his grave.  The question here seems to be whether Bryson can minimize the choke-point landing area by simply launching it over the encroaching trees?

The downside?  Besides rendering four hundred years of golf course construction obsolete?  It's the Masters, so we'll not have a blimp, shot-tracer and on-course reporters to share Bryson's aggressive lines and the results thereof....  Pity that.

The Year From Hell, A Continuing Series - You just have to feel for those trying to make their way in our game.  If you don't already have PGA Tour status, there just isn't much you can do.  There was this attempt by the big tour to help mitigate the damage:

The professional golfers whose livelihoods have been most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic are those who play at levels below the PGA and Korn Ferry tours. They’ve had nowhere to play, and the PGA Tour has a plan to take some steps to make up for that.

As first reported by Golf Channel, the tour told players this week that, starting in August, it will stage a series of eight tournaments for members of PGA Tour Latinoamerica, Canada’s Mackenzie Tour and PGA Tour China. The schedules for all three circuits for the rest of 2020 were eliminated because of the coronavirus.

The upcoming tournaments will be 54 holes, with 144-player fields and minimum $100,000 purses, with a winner’s share of $16,000. The fields will be comprised of international exempt members, Korn Ferry Tour players, sponsor’s exemptions and top performers from previous events.

Should they be doing more?  Probably, but at least they're doing something...

The only other avenue is to attempt to Monday qualify for either the PGA or Korn Ferry tours.  But, as we've discussed, available spots on the PGA Tour have been reduced from four to two, yet the number of those trying to qualify has undoubtedly increased substantially.

As for Monday qualifying, it's hard.  How hard?

Le Sigh!

Fun With Pairings - This used to be the purview of the USGA, whose Thursday/Friday groups would provide amusement for those with far too much time on their hands.  For years we had a parlor game to identify the USGAs a*****e group when pairings were announced, which was good fun until we all learned that we only had to type CTRL-F: Sabbatini.  Then there was that epic body-shaming group at Pinehurst...  Good times.

The underlying news item is some tweaks to the Tour's testing and related protocols, codifying the Champ rule, which Geoff blogs at length.  But how about this for a pairing?

At this week’s Workday Charity Open, Dylan Frittelli, Denny McCarthy and Nick Watney will follow the symptom-based model, as they have continued to return positive tests but meet the CDC guidelines for Return to Work. The three will play together in rounds one and two.

Nick Watney is still fogging up a mirror?  I guess they're all still self-quarantining, just with each other for those two days.  Here's hoping that the cameramen are dutifully respectful, as we wouldn't want their brands damaged any further.

I'll release you to begin your day, and hopefully see you tomorrow.