The Time They Are 'a Changin'

This started life as the first item in a typically wide-ranging post.  I went quite long, so let's give it its own space.

Strange doings in Fortress Ponte Vedra Beach these days, as they seem to have lost any grasp of this PR thing.  First they allow Tiger and Phil to steal all the oxygen during the first week of the "playoffs", now they've stepped on their own tail with an announcement of changes to the FedEx Cup events.

Here's Geoff on the subject:

Let's establish a few things for those who might have forgotten: the FedExCup has been a resounding success despite lackluster ratings and constant tweaking over the years. 

The white gloves are oh so precious.

Which, of course, is why something so good, so brilliantly conceived, and so universally adored by the masses will be blown up in 2019. Despite years of great suggestions from all corners of the golf watching world, it should be noted the PGA Tour chose to cook up an internal idea that has some merit but also potential holes.

Resounding success?  As is often the case with the Tour, one needs to be very specific about metrics.  If you measure success based upon decimal places, the point is inarguable.  

But as Shack is noting, they're blowing it up tells us all we need to know about it as an artistic success...  It's the Medinah No. 3 of golf events.... Have you ever noticed that that particular golf course is always held out as one of the greats, yet every time an event is held there they've blown the place up?

Brian Wacker concedes my point:

The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs has always lacked a certain element of clarity and simplicity. By definition, playoffs are a final contest, series of contests or period of play to determine the winner between contestants or teams. Merriam-Webster makes no mention of NBC/Golf Channel’s Steve Sands’ whiteboard. 

“A points system confuses people,” said veteran Geoff Ogilvy, also a member of the tour’s Player Advisory Council. “Once the first round starts [at the Tour Championship] everyone understands everyone’s position.”

The key to successfully implementing change is to properly identify the problem.  How do we think they've done?

The problem was splitting attention on two trophies. A year ago, Xander Schauffele won the Tour Championship by one shot over Justin Thomas, who won the FedEx Cup. Thomas said later it was a “weird” moment to lose the tournament and win the $10 million prize.

I can't in good conscience award more than a gentleman's C, as this is merely a symptom.  The problem is that their objectives are to reward both a worthy season-long candidate, yet have the outcome in doubt until late Sunday at East Lake.  Those two objectives are damn near irreconcilable, except when one player dominates straight through to the Tour Championship.  otherwise, Billy Horschel ensues.

So, what have the geniuses come up with for us?  First, it's always about the process with these folks, so of course there was a Committee Task Force Focus Group:

According to multiple sources, the organization gathered statisticians and focus groups to help flesh out the format and gauge how well the changes would be received. Roughly 80 percent of the focus groups grasped the concept and said it was easier to understand, according to one source.

Hmmmm.... wasn't it Dylan who said that you don't need a statistician to tell you which way the wind is blowing?

Well, the first part makes sense, though Doug Ferguson, whose item we're plagiarizing linking, buries the lede:

The PGA Tour is putting the final touches on a revamped FedEx Cup structure that would award a cash bonus to the leading player from the regular season, followed by a new scoring format for the Tour Championship to decide the FedEx Cup champion, The Associated Press has learned.

OK, so far so good.  While their issue specification lacked insight, this does address their irreconcilable objectives, separating the season-long competition from what comes after.  Elsewhere they speak of warding cash to the top three places, so details are still moving...  That said, this entombed bit is kind of amusing:

One item unsolved is when the regular season would end.

Since the FedEx Cup began in 2007, the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina, has been the final regular season tournament for players to finish among the top 125 to retain full PGA Tour status and qualify for the postseason. 

What emerged from a Player Advisory Council meeting last week was the possibility of ending the regular season the previous week at the FedEx Invitational, a World Golf Championship in Memphis, Tennessee. The top players in the FedEx Cup typically take a week off before the playoffs instead of playing the Wyndham Championship.

It takes a focus group to see the brilliance of  ending the season with the FedEx Invitational leading directly into the FedExCup Playoffs.....  Yeah, no confusion there.  Also, the Tour has issued its 2018-19 schedule and the Wyndham is on it, so who gets to deliver that message?  I'm sure the Wyndham folks are excited to get all this free publicity.... And to think I've occasionally accused the Tour of treating its sponsors poorly once the check has cleared....

OK, so now that we've awarded a boatload of cash to reward season-long excellence, we can do something really exciting with these "playoff" events, right?  Egads, are you ready for the camel our committee has designed?

Five people aware of the discussions say FedEx Cup points will not be involved in the

final playoff event at East Lake. Instead, the No. 1 player would start the Tour Championship at 10-under par, with scores to par staggered depending on the 30 players’ position in the standings. 

The winner will be the FedEx Cup champion, and the bonus is expected to be more than the current $10 million prize. 

That means whoever gets the 30th spot at East Lake would have four rounds to make up as many as 10 shots. The change eliminates the awkward moment — and divided attention — of one player winning the Tour Championship and another winning the FedEx Cup, which happened last year for the second time. 

The people spoke on condition of anonymity because the tour has not publicly announced what they are planning to do, and because there are still loose ends.

WTF!  Why not just make them carry extra weight?   I simply can't imagine how this wasn't immediately shot down, it being self-evidently moronic.  Here's another telling little detail:

Winning the Tour Championship will still count toward a player’s victory total as well.

It's not silly enough that one gets a win for beating only 29 other players, now that lucky stiff gets a win for beating only 29 players...with a head start.  

No word on how they'll get from Memphis/Greensboro to East Lake, though I think I smell some kind of reset coming...  And no word on the logarithm to determine that staggered start, I guess they want to maintain the drama for as long as possible....

Here's Shack's conclusion, in which he actually explains what the Tour should do, not that anyone is paying attention:

No doubt, Cialis prescriptions went unused for days when the statisticians and tour executives were told the new format would have produced a one-stroke Justin Thomas win over Jordan Spieth in 2018. (Spieth held the FedExCup lead over Thomas heading to East Lake, so this presumes he started -10 to Thomas's -8). 

That duel surely would have made for some great theater, but the year before, Dustin Johnson would have played just a so-so final tournament and have beaten Rory McIlroy by three strokes. That McIlroy win in a playoff was confusing but also possibly the most exciting in the Tour Championship's FedExCup era despite the confusion over scenarios.

Ultimately Sundays at East Lake should get better and maybe even make more sense in this scenario. But before you say Billy Horschel, the PGA Tour's Playoffs(C) have always lacked the dramatic potential for wild upsets, surprise eliminations and an underdog component.

The final four days at East Lake will still be just like before: three days of ho-hum golf with fingers crossed the numbers add up to make Sunday work. Which begs the question: what so has the players, execs and focus-groups still afraid to cut after 36 holes, reset the points, cut again for an exciting Saturday, then feature a Sunday shootout with just a few playing-for-the-big-check? 

I guess we still will never find out.

Yeah, a high-stakes shootout is the only thing that makes sense, but they've let Tiger and Phil corner that market.  At least we've got Steve Sands updating his CV, but otherwise it seems quite wide of the mark.