Weekend Wrap - Dr. Jekyll & Mr. McHyde Edition

Well, that had some twists and turns to it....  I don't get much right (check out my Masters pool if you're in doubt), but my Friday call bears noting.  With the rest of the world writing the Ulsterman off with yet another Thursday Masters hiccup, your humble blogger said, "Not so fast."

Given my repeated predictions that Rory would finish his career with a wardrobe void in the green spectrum, who says we don't deal well with change at this age....  Of course, you're also probably thinking that this isn't about me, though I call them right just about as often as Rory wins majors.... Anything more than once a decade is just showing off.

Geoff likes to lede his post with numerical summaries, and he goes long today:

By The Numbers

• -11: Leading score after 72 holes (Rose, McIlroy)
• 3: McIlroy’s score on the first hole of sudden death to win
• 5: Career majors for McIlroy
• 128: Months since McIlroy had won a major
• 3899: Days since McIlroy’s last major win (until Sunday)
• 4: Double bogeys during the week (first ever for a Masters champion)
• 6: Members of the Career Grand Slam Club (Sarazen, Hogan, Player, Nicklaus, Woods, McIlroy)
• 310-329-333-352-295-308-352-310-332-248-317: McIlroy’s non-par 3 tee shots in regulation
• 3: birdies on the 4th hole Sunday (Kim, Theegala, McIlroy)
• 35/56: Fairways hit by McIlroy (63%)
• 47/72: Greens in regulation by McIlroy (65%)
• 17/25: Scrambling by McIlroy (68%)
• 329.3: McIlroy’s driving distance average
• 3: Eagles by McIlroy
• 18 Birdies by McIlroy
• 10: Final round birdies by runner-up Justin Rose
• 72.05: Sunday scoring average
• 36 and 5: 16th hole location paying homage to the 1975 Masters

As much as I loved that 1975 call-out, not sure I get Geoff's "36 and 5" reference....  Can anyone clue me in?

As for our hero, Geoff tries to capture the insanity:

A rollercoaster ride of a day.

A cluster unlike any other.

AYFKM.

WTF x 2025.

Rors, bud. Where to start?

You’re a superstar. The Arnie and Savior of 21st-century patrons. The Green Coats have probably never wanted someone to wear a jacket more than you. And this is not just because you remember their names, make eye contact, know how they’ve made their fortune, or can talk shop with them without leaning on your nearby 20-percenter to finish your sentences.

After the zaniest Sunday at the place where they do zany Sundays like no other, you’ll be doing celebratory toasts tonight, taking the jacket across the Atlantic later this week for mum and dad to try on. McIlroy’ll be enjoying this win after several All-World, steel-cut losses in the 11 years since the last major. But let’s be very clear about one thing: it’s a major-worthy mitzvah that the press center has military grade plumbing, padded walls, soft carpet, and an open bar where the Casamigos-fueled Azaleas flowed as soon as you were done talking about winning the 2025 Masters.

“I don't know if any Masters champions had four doubles during the week, but maybe I'm the first,” Rory McIlroy said, looking splendid in a 38R green jacket. “But yeah, just a complete roller coaster of emotions today.”

You think?

To set the record straight: you were the first with four doubles. Craig Stadler—three doubles in 1982—thanks you. And even Jack Nicklaus is trying to figure out what he just witnessed.

“I’ve never seen a tournament where I’ve seen so many good shots and so many bad shots and so many changes of this and that,” he told Golf Channel’s Live From. “I’m delighted for Rory. I know that he’s had a lot of pressure on him. He’s had the world on his shoulders. That was wonderful to see him win.”

That Jack quote is so very true.....  Several times over the weekend we saw Rory hit shots that only he could hit.... alas, that also includes the wedge into No. 13 yesterday.

And this about a really curious decision:

Rory is a true Master. A gift to golf. A complete golfer who has improved with age and found new ways to love the game even when it dumps fire retardant on his unending fire. The whole thing is all so lovely. And beautiful. Proper. Inspiring. Stunning. Even ethereal.

But what the hell did you do to us on 13?

“I thought I played the 13th hole smartly, at least for the first two shots,” he said of quite possibly the worst shot ever hit by a major champion nursing a four-stroke lead with six to go.

“3-wood off the tee, laid it up into a good position. I had 82 yards to the pin. It went into a little valley and it was on the upslope. And usually when I hit wedge shot off upslopes, they come out a little bit left on me. I gave myself like a couple of yards of room to the right. I wasn't aiming at the creek, but it came out, you know, a little weak and a little right.”

A little? You think?

What's interesting to me is that we've seen exactly no one do that previously, regardless of the size of their lead.  Ironically, it brings into play the worst fate that can happen, which is to end up in the water in three (one can survive being wet in two, especially with a 4-shot lead).  

I had noted that the final round set-up evoked St. Andrews a bit, though the venue providing a stark difference.  The Old Course really was a Par-67 (H/T: Bryson), and I thought he made a critical error there in not maintaining his aggressiveness.  Augusta is a different test, where on needs selective aggressiveness, nowhere more so than the three-shotters.  But I don't think Rory does conservative well, so maybe wasn't well-served doing so.

But I'll credit the guy for acknowledging this (though not sure what Geoff is smoking);

Perhaps most reaffirming in McIlroy’s bizarro win that should have been by seven or eight shots?

For a change, the ball listened.

Gaps in trees opened up.

Deadly lies in past majors were decent this week.

Finally, the guy who seemed to get no breaks in crushing losses at St Andrews, Los Angeles and Pinehurst, received the help all legends need to accumulate multiple majors.

“Look, I rode my luck all week. And again, I think with the things that I've had to endure over the last few years, I think I deserved it. Anytime I hit it in the trees this week, I had a gap. Even the second shot on 7 today, which I probably shouldn't have taken on, Harry was telling me not to. I was like, ‘No, no, I can do this.’"

It just seemed like every bad drive, and there were many, left him with an opening.... But, Geoff, Rory lost at those three venues the good old fashioned way, or were you not watching that putting exhibition at Pinehurst?

Not only did he hit that risky shot, but after the layup on No. 13, he did this from No. 15 (though admittedly he wasn't protecting a lead any longer):

Not like that green was firm or anything....

Shall we see what the Tour Confidential gang thought?  Actually, that was rhetorical, otherwise it's a bit much work for your humble blogger:

Rory McIlroy beat Justin Rose in a playoff to win the 2025 Masters, claiming his first major since 2014 and, more importantly, his first career green jacket, making him the sixth player ever to secure the career grand slam. How would you start to unpack that crazy finish?

Jessica Marksbury: I feel absolutely wrecked, and all I did was watch! I cannot recall a Masters,

or any tournament, for that matter, with so many twists and turns, ups and downs, and emotional investment. It was a nail-biter from the first hole. Jack Nicklaus said — and I’m paraphrasing— that he’s never seen so many good shots mixed with so many bad shots. He nailed it! It was outrageous, exciting, excruciating, like nothing I’ve ever watched. What Rory achieved was so wonderful. I think everyone watching wanted it for him. And his ultimate moment of catharsis on 18 — down on his knees, sobbing into the green — brought tears to my eyes too. It was inspiring and awesome, literally everything you ask for in a sports story, or any human story, was on display today. I’m still in a state of recovery.

Josh Sens: By far the craziest tournament I’ve ever watched. It was hard to tell whether the golf gods were in an especially mischievous mood or if McIlroy was just messing with us. I think it’s fair to say by the wild swings in his play–and his intense emotion after–that playing with the weight of history – and with so many painful memories in the majors– isn’t easy. Fans have good reason to feel elated for Rory. And also maybe a little bad for Justin Rose.

Jack Hirsh: How do I unpack that? I just had my heart ripped out of my chest only to have it sewn back in multiple times over the last several hours. I don’t think I’ve ever felt so strongly about a sports event since Tiger in 2019 and there wasn’t near as much drama as today. First McIlroy was blowing it, then he rallied, then he was dominating. Then he was playing safe, then he blew it. Then he rallied again. Then he blew it and then he finally won it. I’m tired just typing that. I think the important thing is this. Had McIlroy lost today, there was a real argument to be made that he might never have been able to recover from it. Now? He might be set up to win 10 more majors before he’s done (and maybe three more this year)!

Yanno what would be great?  If golf writers heard the words as they come off their keyboard.  Sure, Jack, it was eleven years in the desert between Nos. Four and Five, but by all means concede him Nos. 6-15.....  Because that's how golf works.

The point Hirsh was trying to make isn't much better.  To wit, that had it gone pear-shaped for Rory it might have been sufficiently devastating that he couldn't recover.... You mean, like Pinehurst?  But didn't he sort of recover from that, Jack?  

Rory made this a crazy day, but it would also be nice if these writers knew some history, because there have been far crazier Masters.... The year Charl won jumped out at me, as well as the one they honored with that 16th hole pin placement.  And someone mentioned 2019, but wasn't there all sorts of mayhem in 1986 as well?  It's this event's signature move, but when your writers are all 22 years old...

McIlroy rebounded from a double bogey on the 1st hole, escaped some tree trouble with some magnificent approaches on the first nine and overcame a late double bogey and short missed putt on the 18th to eventually beat Rose in a playoff. What most impressed you about his victory?

Marksbury: McIlroy showed some serious fight, but he didn’t appear to get too up or too down during the round. He stayed cool and collected, and that enabled him to continue hitting those

miraculous shots. Even though he missed some makeable ones down the stretch, he still hit the shots he needed to give himself the opportunities.

Sens: There were so many moments where he could have just slumped his shoulders and slinked away. What must have been swirling through his head as it all seemed to be slipping away from him again. The fact that he was able to pull out of what looked like a self-inflicted death spiral is pretty remarkable.

Hirsh: My colleagues touched on the mental, but the physical is just as impressive. When we talk about 15 yesterday as well as 5, 7 and 15 today, he hit shots that I firmly believe he is the only human on the planet capable of hitting. Tiger used to do the same thing. No one was even thinking about going through some of the windows he tried on 5 and 7, his caddie even tried to talk him out of it, but he has so much speed and is able to elevate the ball so high, it’s truly remarkable. We’ve compared Scottie Scheffler’s winning ability to Tiger Woods, but we haven’t talked about (at least lately) how Rory is the closest thing physically we’ve seen since Tiger in his prime.

His good golf was simply better than anyone else's....  I was struck by the improvement in his wedge play, which combined with his other-worldly driving....

What do you think was the difference between this Rory and the version that’s had so many major close calls over the last couple of years?

Marksbury: In his past near-misses, McIlroy’s body language was always very indicative of his mood — the lack of bounce in his walk, the pained expressions, the downcast eyes. I didn’t notice that on Sunday, although he had plenty of reason to be negative! But he stayed the course, which enabled him to ultimately capitalize on his final opportunity. He seems like a changed player in that sense, which is an impressive evolution.

Sens: I agree with you there, Jess. After he missed the putt on 18 in regulation, he grinned in a way that seemed pained but also borderline amused by the absurdity of it all. He’d said it all week—that this wasn’t a matter of life and death, that even the most brutal heartache can be overcome, and that he still believed in himself. His comportment all week suggested that those weren’t just empty words.

Hirsh: To be honest, he finally got lucky. He still hit the bonehead wedge on 13 and missed the putts on 15, 16 and 18 in regulation, but this time there was no Cam Smith to boatrace him or Bryson DeChambeau to outduel him. That’s not a knock on McIlroy because winning major championships is simply hard and you need luck to get there. But when he hit his second at 11 and it stopped just inches before the water, I was convinced it was just his day.

The internal and the external.  Rory did a great job of bouncing back from all the doubles, of course he had the benefit of lots of experience there.  He was the best player out there, only making it closer with the boneheaded stuff...

On the flip side, he banked all those lucky windows out of the trees, and also benefitted from the biggest break of all, to wit, that nobody really came at him hard.  Rosie made the big putt on No. 18 and clawed his way back top relevance, but had let himself lose contact with Rory in the middle of the round.

But am I the only one that saw echoes of 2005 in yesterday's end game.  What most folks don't remember about Tiger's famous chip shot is what ensued immediately thereafter.  With a two-shot lead, Tiger proceeded to make ugly bogeys at both Nos. 17 and 18 to force a playoff with Chris DiMarco, which he birdied the first hole of to win.  Those were two great swings Rory made on the playoff hole, so all credit there.

This will be a tough one to answer:

Which non-winner is still leaving Augusta National pleased with their week, and which pro leaves still searching?

Marksbury: Patrick Reed has to be thrilled with his performance this week — an out-of-nowhere 3rd-place finish, only two shots off the lead? That’s wild! He does have an excellent record at Augusta overall, but since the majors are the only opportunity we have to gauge LIV players against their PGA Tour peers, this has to feel like a big statement for him.

As for a searching pro, my heart aches a bit for Justin Rose. Man, what a performance, and so brutal to come up short yet again. And at 44 years old, he knows he’s on the back-nine of his already Hall-of-Fame worthy career. But I’m sure this one stings.

Sens: Max Homa has to feel pretty good. It’s been a rough season for him so far. Five straight missed cuts heading into Augusta. Nice to have him back.

Hirsh: Yeah, I’m jumping on the Justin Rose bandwagon. He’s now finished runner-up in the last two majors and he had to go through qualifying to get in the Open Championship! He’s clearly still got something left in the tank. It would be awesome to see him win again, especially after showing such class in defeat.

Gotta wonder where Nick Dunlap is at right now. His rally on Friday was inspiring, but 90 is a shocking score for a guy who won twice last year. Hard to remember he is still just 21.

If he hadn't gotten that 18th hole reprieve from Rory, not sure he'd come in for much sympathy this morning.  He's a good guy and a good player, but after that strong opening round he seemed to hanging on for dear life.  he was never gonna win it unless Rory coughed it up to him...

I refuse to concede that Patrick reed was even in the field, and Max Home seems to be able to play just this one golf course these days.... So, not too many happy campers leaving Augusta.

What did you learn at Masters week?

Marksbury: I had an idea that double-bogeys at Augusta equalled death, and winners need to shoot under par on Sunday. And Rory proved all of that wrong!

Sens: Great way to put it, Jess. I can’t top that. What I learned wasn’t so much a lesson, but a reminder. In golf–and in this golf tournament in particular–expect the unexpected.

Hirsh: That Rory McIlroy can hit a golf ball very, very high.

 And from the "Way too soon" department:

Come 2026 Masters week, there’s no more storyline focusing on Rory and his quest for the career grand slam. So, what will be the biggest storyline?

Sens: Can Rory win his fifth straight major?

Marksbury: YES, Josh! Another one: Will Tiger play, and will he make the cut, is always a favorite. Other than that, I think it will be fun to track this growing contingent of players who are playing awesome at Augusta year after year. Scottie was three shots away from winning a third green jacket. Ludvig was in the mix again, and you have to think that Rory will continue to be a factory for years to come. Who will be the Masters king of the next generation?

Hirsh: Yeah, I agree with Sens too, and there’s more to unpack with that. McIlroy is setting himself up to have a Scheffler-like year, but maybe with more majors?! He’s won four times at Quail Hollow, site of the PGA Championship. The U.S. Open is at Oakmont, which should be tailor-made for a bomber like him. And the pièce de résistance? The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush in his home country, where he owns the course record. He clearly has his sights set on leaving little doubt that he is Europe’s greatest player.

Lost in the shuffle is what a good week it was for Europe.  For a while it was a three-way tie that included Ludvig, and guys like Rahm and Tyrell redeemed their weeks.  I'm gonna focus on Bethpage before worrying about Rory's title defense.

And I'm going to exit on a minor story, just because it's so hard to understand people:

Former Masters champ’s secret gesture was ‘nice touch’ for Rory McIlroy

Who it was might surprise you:

Angel Cabrera, present at Rory McIlroy’s collapse, was one of the reasons behind his rise.

With McIlroy up by two heading into Sunday’s final round of the Masters, and in search of his first green jacket, he opened his locker upon arriving at Augusta National and found a note from the 2009 Masters winner. Fourteen years ago, they’d been paired together when McIlroy entered the final round of the Masters up two, only to shoot a near-unfathomable 80 and exit Augusta National in a fog.

The message was short. The message was remembered. McIlroy won this year’s Masters a few hours later, in a playoff with Justin Rose, and McIlroy specifically noted the note in his press conference opening statement.

“And honestly, you know, what came out of me on the last green there in the playoff was, you know, at least 11 years, if not 14 years of pent-up emotion,” McIlroy said. “You know, since 2011, I think it’s so ironic, as well. I got to my locker this morning and I opened it up, and there was a note in there from Angel Cabrera, and just wishing me luck.

“And Angel Cabrera was the player I played with on the final day in 2011. It was a nice touch and a little bit ironic at the same time. It’s been 14 long years, but thankfully I got the job done.”

And not the first such story about Cabrera, a man who has generated some horrible stories in recent years.  But, to appreciate Cabrera, talk to Adam Scott.   Not only did Cabrera help Scott regain his confidence at a Prez Cup many years back, but he also exhibited some of the most genuine sportsmanship I've seen in losing a playoff to Scott at Augusta.

It's just the yin and the yang of human nature but, without discounting those accusations against him, I can't help but feel that he's earned a second chance.

That's it for today.  Hope you enjoyed that wild Sunday, and we'll have further thoughts as the week progresses.

Masters Friday - Regression Is A Bitch Edition

As of press time I have been unable to confirm that a team pf Viennese psychiatrists is inbound to Augusta, GA to put a certain Ulsterman under observation.... Really no need for the professionals, he was under acute observation by the rest of us...

Masters Thursday - I'll lede by stealing Geoff's lede, a statistical summary of Masters Thursday:

Round One By The Numbers

• 65: Low score by Justin Rose
• 4: Lower opening rounds in Masters history than Rose in ‘25
• 5: Times Rose has led or co-led after the first round
• 68: Score of defending champion Scottie Scheffler
• 16 of 21: Rounds Scheffler has been under par in his career
• 68: Score of 2024 runner-up Ludvig Aberg (73 last year)
• 71: Fred Couples, the second subpar Masters round by a 65+ golfer here
• 2: Couples’ score on the par 4 14th
• 73: Score of Hiroshi Tai, the low amateur after round one
• 33: Paces from the front for the 16th hole cup placement
• 90: High score by Nick Dunlap
• 4: Pars by Nicolai Hojgaard en route to 76
• 76: High temperature on Thursday
• 1: Player to relieve himself in the tributary of Rae’s Creek

Could I ask that you avert your eyes from that spoiler alert in the last bullet?

Of course that second bullet evokes a certain Aussies opening 63 in 1996....  Good Times!  And, yeah, I'd never seen anything like that pin on No. 16, and the same can be said for that front-=right pin on No. 15, which hardly came into play yesterday (kidding).

The Leader - He's got a sneaky good record at this joint, most notably losing in a heartbreaking playoff to Sergio a few years back.  Here's Geoff's take on his day:

Rose’s 65 seems especially impressive given the course’s strong bias toward extreme length and young nerves. In mowing fairways toward the tees the evening before a round and following that

with a healthy sprinkling of water, they effectively eliminate anything beyond some cursory roll. The setup tilts heavily toward the 320-yard Carry Society instead of types whose best hopes await in July at The Open.

“It was a really good day's golf on a golf course that was a stern test,” said 44-year-old Rose.” I think if you look at the overall leaderboard, not many low scores out there. A lot of quality shots, and delighted the way I played.”

The two-time runner-up here averaged just under 300 yards on his drives, which is in line with his last few Masters but far away from his peak years from 2016, when his Augusta National distance numbers generally hovered in the high 320s. Rose has remained relevant through a strict fitness regimen and continued to flash brilliance in between major struggles. He bounced back from last year’s missed cut here to finish T6 in the PGA at Valhalla and second at Troon to Xander Schauffele. And he’s still riding the high of his huge role in Europe’s 2023 Ryder Cup win.

“I think those couple weeks for me, and even the Ryder Cup in Rome in '23, they were big motivating weeks where I thought the hard work is still worth it, still believe I can shake it with the best.”

On Thursday he took just 25 putts while hitting 14 of 18 greens and 9 of 14 fairways.

He played great, at least until the last couple of holes where I suspected he realized what he might shoot.... While I don't expect him to be there on Sunday, his record here is such that he's not so easily dismissed.  I think Geoff basically feels the same:

Rose’s record at Augusta National includes two runner-up finishes, six top 10’s, 16 cuts made in

19 starts, and a career 71.90 scoring average. His opening 65 ties his low round here and was on the cusp of joining the great first-day scores in tournament history until an 18th-hole bogey. Four players have opened with a lower number: Greg Norman’s 63 in 1996, Jordan Spieth’s 64 in 2015, Mike Donald’s 64 in 1990, and Lloyd Mangrum’s 64 in 1940.

With last year’s two top finishers—Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg—just three back, Rose will have his work cut out to become the oldest Masters Champion since 41-year-old Mark O’Meara in 1998.

“I played a lot of golf here at Augusta National. So to come away with my equal best score is certainly an achievement for me.”

Him - Dr. Jekyl and Mr. McIlroy put on quite the show yesterday, though my take might surprise you.  First, this fairly conventional assessment:

Wolken: Rory McIlroy shows once again that Augusta National is in his head

If Rory McIlroy is ever truly in position to win one of these things on a Sunday afternoon, make sure you’ve taken your medication, keep your cup full of whatever helps you relax, take deep breaths every few minutes and grip your rosary beads tight.

Here’s the reality of the situation: Augusta National is in his head. It’s lodged in the deepest, darkest places of his psyche. It draws out his worst instincts in the wrong moments. He’s tried everything to figure it out. And once again, it appears McIlroy will be back next year answering all the same questions that have hounded him for more than a decade at the Masters.

McIlroy came to Augusta on Monday as the main character, the popular pick, the guy whose form this year suggested he was ready to take the big step into a green jacket and finally complete the career Grand Slam. He put in the work in the offseason to tidy up his wedge game and develop some lower-trajectory shots that might come in handy around this place. He even went to see Jack Nicklaus last week to talk about how he was going to play the course, literally shot by shot.

And his take on the meltdown:

And then, inexplicably and for no obvious reason, it went completely the other direction.

After failing to convert a nine-foot birdie putt on No. 14, McIlroy stood in the middle of the 15th fairway with a 4-iron from 241 yards away. His shot was on line, landing close to pin high, but

took a firm bounce and bounded long of the green. Still, it seemed like a straightforward situation: Cozy a delicate chip down the hill, walk away with no worse than a par.

There’s no other way to describe what happened next: It was a complete disaster. A self-immolation. An unnecessary mistake someone of his experience on this course should not make. From the moment McIlroy made contact with the ball, it was obvious he had carried it too far on the green, hit it too hard and that it wasn’t going to stop until it had trundled all the way off the front edge and into the pond.

It was, in a word, stunning. And it’s the shot that so many players knew they had to be defensive about because the 15th green is one of four at Augusta National that was rebuilt this year, making it firmer to begin with. Then when you factor in the greens getting a little dry and crusty late in the afternoon, plus a tough pin placement, it’s a truly treacherous place on the course – which makes it all the more confounding that McIlroy played the shot so aggressively.

“You can easily hit a nice pitch on that green and it just rolls in the water, which I’m sure a lot of guys did today,” said Viktor Hovland, who was playing one group in front of McIlroy and almost certainly did not see what was happening behind him. “You don’t have to be far off to make a double.”

How stunned could we have been, given that Rory was three groups behind Cantlay (and how schadenfreudaliscious was that sequence?).  Given the rebuild of this green, was this the year to use that front-right pin?  Maybe not, but did anyone else do what Patrick and Rory did?  To me, this is just gonna happen in the course of four days at Augusta.... And if we're going to pound the guy (and, really, why stop now?), wasn't the sequence on No. 17 far worse?

I don't know what he is going to do from here on out, but if we think he's going South, this would be the tell:

Now, he was sullen, his lips pursed. And he didn’t really hit a good shot the rest of the day.

On No. 17, McIlroy flared his 3-wood a little bit to the right off the tee, making the approach slightly more difficult. But he blew his approach way long, hit another terrible chip 28 feet past the hole and three-putted for another double bogey.

If he's feeling sorry for himself, then we stick a fork in him....

At that link above, Geoff has this about the 15th green, though it's unclear to me whether he thinks this went over the line:

The 13th hole played tougher statistically and yielded the same number of eagles. But as it did

last year, the 550-yard 15th made a mess of several scorecards and had players questioning its design soundness following the benign opening day.

Featuring a green re-grassed with new turf as part of a regular agronomic program, the raised and shallow green is second only to the seventh in terms of limited depth at 24 paces from front to back, with the front two paces essentially a guaranteed donation to the fronting pond.

So with some “new green” firmness and the overall precariousness of the falloffs of three sides, several players missing long threw away good rounds.

Just three groups after Patrick Cantlay arrived one-under-par and twice pitched into the lake after going over the green in two, Rory McIlroy came to the 15th four-under-par and bogey-free. A 294-yard drive left him 241, and he sailed just long, facing a 25-yard pitch. From the 16th tee grandstand, it was apparent the moment his pitch landed on the green that he’d carried it too far and had not clipped the sand wedge with much or any backspin. His Taylormade finished in the water.

McIlroy boldly chose to go over to the drop area and pitch back over the pond, bringing the precarious front slope into play from a different angle. Unlike Cantlay, who made his eight by dropping from his original spot, McIlroy was able to pitch safely on and two-putt. But all momentum was halted as he walked off the green, looking like he’d taken an upper cut. He limped home with another unforced error at 17, where a second double bogey ended his round one with a 72.

I've long considered this an unfair golf hole, though exciting for sure.  There was a lot of talk about the course firming up, but this green is the only place I saw golf balls releasing yesterday.  We'll keep watching to see how balls react but, if the green is so firm that the long approach shots can't hold, the chip back to a front pin is just terrifying....

The underlying question, of course, is whither Rory..... Geoff had this:

Given his tendency to start slow and close late at Augusta National, hope is not lost. However, only one player has made two double bogeys in a round and gone on to win: Craig Stadler in 1982’s first round.

I don't know, Geoff, those late charges were always from so far off the lead....

To me, Rory has two separate issue which converge this week:

1. A pattern of playing poorly when he wants it the most, plus;
2. The golf course.

For the first, we just need to recite the litany of venues, beginning with this week's, but including Portrush, Pinehurst, St. Andrews and LACC, among others.  This fits my Bobby Jones citation earlier in the week, that golf is played on the real estate between one's ears.  Rory remains highly suspect in that regard, and yesterday's finish merely gets added to the list.

But many of us have long thought that ANGC exposes the weaknesses in Rory's game, above and beyond what the moment can do to a fellow.  Firm conditions are one aspect of this thought, and we do expect the course to becomes firmer as the week goes on.  But the other major component is Rory's weaknesses with wedges, his poor distance control a recipe for disaster when playing to Augusta's treacherous greens.

But Rory seems to have finally made progress addressing that weakness,  Everyone is citing his two wins, but I'm more focused on how and where he won, Sawgrass especially being a place he'd hit a million wedges.  I was particularly struck by his wedge into No. 9 yesterday, one of those cut-off finish, low-spinners that are so effective on these greens.  

I have no clue where his head will be this morning, and nobody has been harder on the Ulsterman than your humble blogger.  But the guy that I watched play the first fourteen holes yesterday can win this thing, we just have to see which Rory shows up today.  His even par round has him T27, which is very much a place from which he can contend.  Obviously he gave away five shots down the stretch (I had him making four from the back of the 15th green), so he won't be able to do that again and contend....

I'm the guy that's been saying for years that Rory would never win a Masters and perhaps not even a fifth major, but I'm not sure we're done with him this week.  That said, he better stop making big numbers.

Who Ya Got?  - A quickie Tour Confidential update:

Which big name at Masters is poised to make a Friday charge?

Why are we limiting ourselves to big names?

Justin Rose (seven under) leads the Masters, but several of the game’s biggest names will need to put together strong rounds on Friday to keep up. Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa headline the group at even par and Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele are all one over. Which marquee player charges up the leaderboard on Friday?

Zephyr Melton: I’ll go with Xander Schauffele. He was three over thru 11 but battled back to post one-over 73. Those sorts of gritty rounds are what separates the best from the rest. I’d expect him to come back and post something in the 60s on Friday to get himself in the hunt.

Jack Hirsh: Ludvig Aberg firing a 32 on the back nine to shoot 68 is going to be a problem. We forget the last guy who finished second in his Masters debut won in his second try (Spieth). I say he’s in the lead going to the weekend with Scheffler close behind.

Josh Sens: Collin Morikawa played a quiet round today that ended with a bogey. But he still finished at even par, a reminder of how high a bar he has been setting this year. He came close last year. No reason to think he won’t be in the thick of things as we move to the weekend.

Josh Schrock: I want to say Rory, but the final four holes on Thursday were so dispiriting that I can’t do it. The wind is completely out of my sails on that front. I’m going to go with Justin Thomas. JT did a really nice job to shoot 73 on a day where he was scraping it all over Augusta National. We know he can get nuclear hot, and I think the closing birdie on Thursday will propel him toward a Friday surge. Don’t be surprised if Viktor Hovland, who is at one under, makes a move and is in one of the final pairings on Saturday.

Jessica Marksbury: I’m feeling inspired by Bryson DeChambeau! It’s always hard to gauge how the LIV players will fare at the year’s first major but Bryson appears to be picking up right where he left off last year.

Alan Bastable: Patrick Reed shot one under despite wanting to throw his misbehaving putter into Rae’s Creek. If he can get his flatstick sorted, watch out!

I see the error of my ways.... Big names makes sense so no idiot could possible mention PReed....  though probably good he didn't throw his putter in Rae's Creek, which has been polluted.

Udder Stuff - The big numbers are usually reserved for the old-timers and young kids, but this was pretty special:

As Nick Dunlap paced up the steeply pitched 18th fairway on a breezy blue-sky Thursday at Augusta National, he had the stage to himself. With his playing partners, Billy Horschel and Bob

MacIntyre, already on the green and sizing up their birdie tries, the scene, in part, resembled what we’ve seen at so many Masters Sundays past: the champion enjoying a victor’s stroll up the par-4 last.

The murmurs of the patrons standing behind the viewing pen left of the green, however, told a very different story.

How in the hell do you do that?!



He wants to get off this golf course as fast as he can.

Is that 16?!

Indeed, it was a 16, as in the green number posted next to Dunlap’s name on the iconic tabular leaderboard that overlooks the green. As in sixteen over par through 17 holes.

And about to get worse.

He shot 90, to which Condi Rice said, "Hold my beer."

I'll close with the best story of the day..... dare I ask if it's the best Augusta national story evah?  But let me lead with this, just because the tab was still open:

U.S. Amateur champ plays practice round at Augusta National with three Masters champions

That's a pretty poorly conceived header, burying a heartwarming lede.  That's a Spanish U.S. Amateur Champion playing a practice round with three Spaniards that have won this event, yanno, his heroes.  From Jose Maria to sergio to Jon Rahm, this is pretty heady stuff for a young man.  But do we ever wonder what they discuss on the course, because you'd think they'd let the young man know that they don't exactly give you crystal for this:

As Ballester played the par-5 13th, he realized something: He had to go. And he’d forgotten to use the restrooms by the tee, so as he played the hole, discomfort set in.

“I’m like, I really need to pee,” Ballester said post-round. “Didn’t really know where to go.”

For better or worse, Thomas hit his approach shot into the bushes to the left of the 13th green. That presented the 21-year-old amateur with an opportunity.

“Since J.T. had an issue on the green, I’m like, ‘I’m just going to sneak here in the river and probably people won’t see me that much.’ And then they clapped for me.”

In case you're not following along, in the middle of a competitive round at Augusta National he whipped it out and peed in Rae's Creek.

Am the only one whose first instinct was to wonder how Clifford Roberts would have handled the matter?  I'll be laughing about this all week, a new spin on the concept of free relief.

That's it for today and the week.  I do hope I sufficiently flooded the zone for your taste.  Enjoy the golf and we'll wrap it all Monday morning.

Midweek Musings - Final Countdown Edition

The good news is that the weather forecast is so bad there will no need to juggling the playing with the watching.  And ay Yankees have eliminated themselves as viewing competition, so the decks are cleared.

So, what shall we speak of:

Everyone Talks About The Weather - But few report thereon:

In case you're sensing issues, the weather is fine for today's Par-3 as well, though the course took on lots of water on Monday.

Would love to see more wind in those forecasts to dry it out.  There's only one player that I think of in conjunction with the weather, and Rory's believers will be quite happy with this outlook.  Not enough wind to bother him, though in a perfect world they'd like their workspace softened up each night.

For us it just means the schedule will be uninterrupted.

The Vibe - It's not a bad place, for sure:

The happiest place on Earth? Tuesday at Augusta National makes its case

I'll go way out on a limb and guess that we'll hear about a certain oak tree....

Shane Lowry stood and spoke to a dozen reporters on Tuesday, his eyes fixed on the writers in front of him while occasionally wandering off to the course behind them.

From the media flash area — right of the 1st fairway, outside of scoring, next to the big oak tree — you can see everything. It’s nearly the highest point of the golf course, and the sprawling property unfolds in front of you.

Giddy patrons trudge up and down the hills. One man double-fists a couple of Azalea cocktails. Another already has his collectable plastic drink stack three-cups high. Michelle Wie West and Mel Reid and Jim Furyk — not together, but all out here — mix it up among the patrons. Lions star Aidan Hutchinson is out on the course. So is two-time NBA champ J.R. Smith.

A fan snaps a photo of Lowry. Behind him a man takes a photo of his friends and behind them a woman snaps a photo of her crew. Under the big aforementioned tree, Stefan Schauffele greets his son, Xander, who walks by with a TrackMan in hand. Xander hasn’t won a green jacket yet, but he could this week.

Today, Augusta National is the place to be — for players, for patrons, for instructors, for agents. There’s something magical about the Masters, and that gets magnified early in the week.

Yeah, long known as the best hang in golf.  For those within the gates, that is.

On Thursday and Friday, the scores count. Some players will be promptly ejected while others stay in contention. But today? It’s Tuesday. There’s nothing but optimism and good vibes and hope. It’s mid-60s and blue skies. When it’s sunny, like it is today, the Crow’s Nest tastes better.

Didn't know that the Crow's Nest had a taste....

It's Christmas in April.... If for no other reason than this:

Of course, if you're lucky enough to be invited, wouldn't you get your butt there?

Thirty-two of 35 chairs for past champs were occupied on the second floor of Augusta National’s clubhouse, as only Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and Sandy Lyle failed to make the Georgia trek two nights before the start of the 2025 Masters.

Because it's such a long trip from Jupiter?  Notice that Jack got himself there, it's a respect thing.

Players - I don't waste too much time picking winners, maybe because I never have....  Dylan Dethier devotes his Monday Finish column to this premise:

The 10 most compelling golfers at the 2025 Masters

Each of the 96 competitors [editor’s note: 95, following Vijay Singh‘s WD] at the 2025 Masters has a journey that’s compelling in its own right, from the oldest (Bernhard Langer, 67) to the youngest (Noah Kent, 20) to the most recent winner (Brian Harman) to the twins (Nicolai and Rasmus Højgaard) to the comeback kids (Daniel Berger, to name one) — you get the idea. Everybody in the field has done something special to get here.

There’s Langer, playing in his final Masters on the 40th anniversary of his first Masters win. There’s Angel Cabrera, who missed several Masters after being in prison and just won on the PGA Tour Champions. There are trending PGA Tour pros who keep contending and are hunting a third major, like Justin Thomas and the probably-currently-underrated Collin Morikawa. There are past Masters champs coming in from LIV and showing some form, like Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed. There’s Joaquin Niemann, who has shown worldwide just how good he is but hasn’t necessarily done so in major championships. And there are a couple of European Ryder Cuppers I expect to contend in Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry. There’s everybody else, too.

Enough waffling. Let’s get to the top 10.

He seems to be implying, without actually saying, that the field is more compelling than u usually is....whereas I'll just say that one of his bottom does compel, the other not so much (whether you'll agree as to which is which is quite another matter):

10. Jordan Spieth. This year marks the 10-year anniversary of Spieth’s 2015 Masters win; it feels like he’s won at Augusta three or four times but, so far, just the one. That Spieth was different from this Spieth but he’s shown just enough recent form — three top-12s in his last six starts — to get the Spiethians to believe. In his last four Masters he has two top-fours and two missed cuts. Which version will we get this week?

9. Ludvig Åberg. Yes, the guy from the YouTube video! The Swedish sensation finished runner-up in his Masters debut last year — the first major of his young career, by the way — and claimed one of this year’s top trophies at the Genesis Invitational. But he enters the week off two consecutive missed cuts. Which direction is Ludvig trending?

I guess Dylan didn't hear that the last Spiethian died off in 2021.... He had suffered enough.

But Aberg is compelling.... I though his facial reactions were the best thing about the TGL, and his performance last year was truly compelling.

Dylan is listing the best-known players in the world, so not completely shocking that they're of interest.... though I do agree with him here:

1. Rory McIlroy. If you’re a golf fan you can probably recite this paragraph with your eyes closed: McIlroy hasn’t won a major in over a decade but has won everything else in the meantime. He possesses incredible longevity but also owns deep heartbreak. He remains just one Masters away from the career grand slam. This year seems to be set up perfectly for him, too: he’s entering with terrific form and plenty of winning mojo, with titles at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass. Now all that’s left is the pesky task of actually playing the tournament in the fewest number of shots…

Let's see, there's Augusta, Pinehurst, The Old Course and LACC..... the manner of his demise will be Appointment TV.

This return is obviously a bit awkward:

Does Angel Cabrera belong at this Masters? Not everyone’s convinced

On a bluebird Tuesday afternoon at Augusta National, 55-year-old Angel Cabrera was banging balls on the right end of the gleaming practice range in preparation for his 21st Masters start but

first since 2019. Gone were the Ping and South Africa Airways logos he wore on his hat and shirt, respectively, when he won here in 2009, replaced by his interlocking initials, AC, in both spots. Attentive golf fans might recognize Cabrera in this environment but perhaps not if they strolled by him on the street. He’s wider around the middle than he was when Trevor Immelman slipped the green jacket over his shoulders. The bags under his eyes have grown heavier, and his neatly cropped beard is mostly gray.

Cabrera’s swing lacks some of the pop that you might remember from when he beat Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell in a playoff to become South America’s first Masters champion, but you don’t need to watch him groove drivers for long to deduce that he can still golf his ball. He proved as much just last week when he shot 11 under in a 54-hole PGA Tour Champions event in South Florida to win by two over K.J Choi.

That victory garnered much attention because it was Cabrera’s first since he was released on parole from an Argentine prison in March 2023. Over the previous 30 months, Cabrera had served time in three different prisons for various charges, including domestic violence allegations filed by two former girlfriends; in one instance, Cabrera admitted to hurling a cellphone at his partner’s head.

Hey, if Phil is allowed back, I have no issues....

We can agree that the scripting is out of hand, but this one is awfully cute:

Nike sent a care package for Bennett’s first Masters pic.twitter.com/CM7S0tW9Jg

— TrackingScheffler (@SchefflerLegion) April 7, 2025

Kinda cool when your Dad has one two of them before you're even born...

You know how I feel about the small size of the Masters field, but in no way, shape or form is it THAT small:

The definitive list of 9 golfers who can win the 2025 Masters

Though this list of rules is pretty amusing:

Our good friend, Golf Lock Guru, has six hard and fast rules for picking a Masters champion that have served us quite well over the years (they correctly identified Scheffler last year, though that really didn't take much convincing).

Here's a quick refresher:If you are not in the upper-quartile of the field in recent tee-to-green play, you are not winning. Let’s call it in the last 20 rounds.

• If you are a debutante, you are not winning. If you have never shown an ability to compete for a win at Augusta, you are not winning.
• If you have shown the ability to compete for a win at Augusta too many times without winning, you are also not winning — unless you are chasing the career grand slam. (Let’s call this one the Xander Schauffele Rule).
• If you have replaced your putter for no apparent reason in the last month, you are not winning.
• If you have fired your caddy or swing coach in the lead up to Augusta, you are not winning (sorry Matthew Fitzpatrick and Max Homa).
• If you have ever referred to Augusta as a Par 67, you are not winning.

What if you've replaced your putter for cause?  Though I'm a little confused as to where Rory stands on the Xander Rule, thinking he deserves his own rule.

And yet, the list includes Keegan, Corey Connors and Sepp Straka.....  I wouldn't say those guys CAN'T win, but none of them rock my world.

Dress Codes - You'd think someone could have warned him:

College coach escorted off range for wearing shorts at Augusta National: 'Pants tomorrow'

 Still not as embarrassing as this guy:

Why Masters told Jason Day to change his outfits for 2025: 'It'll be toned down'

Day revealed he had to alter his outfit choices for this year's tournament when the initial look he and Malbon came up with was not approved.

"If they would have let us do what we first put the scripting through to them, it would have been a lot crazier than last year," Day said during a recent appearance on Skratch's "Dan on Golf Show" with Dan Rapaport. "But it'll be toned down just because they have a little bit more, they asked to see the scripting before. The funny thing was, they've never asked to see scripting of mine because I've always been pretty neutral and down the middle. This year they asked, obviously, with what happened last year."

He was paired with Tiger when he wore that, so would have garnered way too much airtime for the Lords of Augusta.  But I don't want to see anything crazier than that vest from last year, do you?

I'm running out of steam and have a lengthy To-Do list to dive into, so enjoy today's Par-3 and what follows tomorrow. 

Weekend Wrap - Christmas In April Edition

That header was inspired mostly by looking at this week's weather forecast for.... well, Greenwich, CT.  The good news is that there's little risk of actual golf impinging on watching the masters... There is a tee time for Wednesday, just color me skeptical that it'll be utilized.

I did get the first round of the year in on Friday.  Given the above, glad we got that one in....

The Young Ladies - There's so much to love about the ANWA though, alas, more to hate.  I'll carry the torch for the Dinah, somebody has to but, to prove my point, I'll ask a simple question.  Why do they even play those first two rounds at Champions Retreat?  It's tree in the woods stuff...

We'll let Geoff tell the tale:

Another Spaniard Conquers Augusta National

Carla Bernat Escuder becomes the first women's amateur winner from Spain and continues a tradition unlike any other in holding off 16-year-old Asterisk Talley.

The Augusta National Women’s Amateur doesn’t start until the 10th tee on Saturday. Or so believes its latest champion, even after taking the lead and never looking back following birdies at the eighth and ninth holes. While Carla Bernat Escuder may not know the exact origins of Dan Jenkins’ Masters admonition, she sure does good homework.

“I knew the tournament was going to start on No. 10 because I've watched all the Masters,” said the 21-year-old from Castellon. “As soon as I hit that second shot [on 10], I was like, oh, I need to get it together and just get this par, and I dig in, and I think that was the key.”

After posting a brilliant final round 68 fueled by six birdies—including on all four par-5’s—the annual women’s amateur continues to feel more like vintage Masters tournaments than…The Masters. Victory was only clinched after making a difficult par putt at the 18th.

Bernat Escudar built a lead after opening in 33 just prior to the key par save at 10. She then built a necessary cushion with birdies at 13 and 15. On the latter par 5 played at 475 yards for the ANWA, she selected 7-iron to play into the par 5 green. She went long but made birdie and it ended up proving a huge moment en route to her 204 total (-12). An eventual one-stroke win came over incredible 16-year-old American Asterisk Talley, who eagled the first and also posted a final round 68.

In the cycle-of0life stuff at which this golf club excels, Jose Maria was there to watch, just as we would have scripted it.

Amusingly, she had the benefit of an all-Spaniard pairing:

The Spanish Augusta connection started in earnest with Seve Ballesteros, continued with José María Olazábal, and more recently has been maintained by Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm. It continued Saturday with four of the six ANWA Spaniards making the 36-hole cut. Bernet Escuder also enjoyed a final-round pairing with one of those players, Stanford’s ebullient Andrea Revuelta of Madrid.

“It was really nice playing with her,” said Bernet Escuder. “It made it feel like we were not in Augusta, either. It was like we were playing when we were 15 back in the day.”

That's "15 back in the day" is so cute, given that the girl she held off by a stroke, Asterisk Talley, is all of sixteen...

Before moving on to our entrée, the Tour Confidential panel spared a moment for this event:

Spain’s Carla Bernat Escuder held off Lottie Woad and Asterisk Talley to win the Augusta National Women’s Amateur on Saturday. What most impressed you about Bernat Escuder’s play, and what did you learn in the latest edition of the ANWA?

Berhow: Her fearless play. Holding that lead on the back nine is not easy to do and she did it while hitting some big-time shots, like that fairway wood from an awkward lie to the 13th green that set up a two-putt birdie (and three-shot lead). This tournament has quickly become one of the handful you circle on the calendar in amateur and pro golf. It’s fun to see how the top female ams play it and introduce themselves to the golfing world. It’s the perfect Masters appetizer. Although I still want more of it on TV.

Schrock: She was so steady in the cauldron. As the pressure ratcheted up on the back nine, she never flinched. She had that massive par save on No. 10 and the second shot on 13 to set up a key birdie. I do want to give a shoutout to Asterisk Talley, who had arguably the two most impressive feats of the day with the hole-out eagle on No. 1 and that ridiculous birdie on No. 17. She’s so damn impressive.

Hirsh: I love how she references the “Masters begins on the back nine Sunday” tagline during her press conference. I think her being herself at her press conference instead of getting stiff and awkward with the lights (and green jackets) turned on was really impressive. We also learned this week that Asterisk Talley didn’t have just a hot season last year — she’s going to be a contender for years to come no matter what level she plays at. As for the ANWA, why aren’t we playing more of it at Augusta National? It’s called the Augusta National Women’s Amateur, but only 33 percent of it is played at Augusta National. Also agree we need more TV coverage of it.

I'm glad that insane birdie on seventeen got a call-out, though that means that the Californian was best at channeling Seve.

Augusta On My Mind - We're gonna start slowly and build through the week.....  Or not, I really have no clue.  Let's leave it in the hands of the golfing media to make me blog..... 

This tab has been open since late last week:

18 reasons why the Masters is sports’ greatest event

Eighteen, huh?  Kind of an odd number.... I might have been tempted to go for twenty-two, just to see if anyone got the reference....

The problem is....well, you'll see soon enough:

14. THE FIELD

Sixty-seven-year-old Bernhard Langer of Germany will be there; so to will the best players in the sport in their prime 20s and 30s. Both represent an invitational with sweeping geographic and generational reach. Other tournaments have tougher fields, but the Masters is the finest illustration of golf as a cherished game of a lifetime, played avidly around the globe.

Is generational reach an unalloyed positive in sports?  Yeah, not even close.... What elite golf needs are more 67-year olds clogging up small fields, right?

The Masters field is so tiny as to not be credible for major championship golf.  While the field size often balloons to ninety players or more, there's math involved.  When you carve out the amateurs and the septuagenarians, it's field designed to warm the cockles of Patrick Cantlay's heart.

As for this one, shark, jumped:

9. THE PAR-3 CONTEST

It’s the Masters in miniature, without the pressure, with kids and wives doubling as caddies, and players skipping shots across the ponds. No one who ever won it claimed the green jacket the same year, but just competing in it is a win-win.

Except that they've rendered it unwatchable.... Now we segue from the unwatchable to the unlistenable:

3. THE THEME MUSIC

It’s a song that’s inseparable from the occasion, the golf world’s version of “Here Comes the Bride.” Sappy? Maybe. But its strains are also soothing and reassuring, a cue to all those listening that something wonderful is underway.

 And lastly....

2. THE HONORARY STARTERS

Only their achievements are immortal. The power of these moments lies in that fact. Since 1963, when Jock Hutchison and Fred McLeod struck the first symbolic tee shots, only seven other greats have carried out the role that Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Tom Watson fill today. Like Nelson, Palmer, Snead, Sarazen and Venturi before them, they won’t be here forever. But we watch them knowing that their legacies will last.

Which is a wonderful tradition that's included so many of the lions of our game.  But we're supposed to revere these traditions, while the actual; participants desecrate them?

A South African stepping all over the tribute to the first black man to play at Augusta.... Yeah, it's special for sure.

Shall we check in with the TC gang, who have a Rory-centric focus this year?

Welcome to Masters week, where there’s no shortage of storylines: Rory McIlroy will (yet

again) try to finish off the career grand slam; stars like JT and Xander will try to win their first green jacket; Scottie Scheffler will try to win his third; and two-time champ Bernhard Langer will say goodbye. Although until Rory wins this tournament, will his quest for the slam always be the main storyline? Does he need a Masters win the most?

Josh Berhow: Until Scottie or some future star is looking to win something like a third straight — or until a Tiger Woods Masters sendoff — Rory going for the grand slam is always going to be the obvious main storyline at Augusta. But that’s just because of the layers to it — the haunting way he lost the 2011 Masters and the major drought that’s now reached a decade. He has several good years left though and he’s going to win one. He’s too good not to.

Josh Schrock: Agree with Berhow. Rory will be the lead storyline of the Masters until he either wins one or there’s a golf eclipse-type storyline for everyone else to focus on. Augusta National is tailor-made for Rory’s game and the different ways he has come up short — from the blowup in 2011 to not pushing Patrick Reed in the final group in 2018 to a blistering backdoor runner-up in 2022 — make him storyline 1A and 1B unless Tiger is in the field.

Jack Hirsh: I have nothing to argue with those two answers. Add to it the fact that Rory has perhaps the best lead-in to the Masters of his entire career, and there’s going to be immense pressure on this week. I subscribe to the rumor mill on social media that he mentioned his elbow was bothering him last week so some of the expectations could be lifted, but I think most have forgotten about that.

Maybe Lee Trevino needs it more, but that about covers it....  Not only does a win confer immortality, but Rory has quite publicly spit the bit several times, rendering it Must See TV.   Each year has a slightly different tinge to it....  this time he's coming in showing great form, so methinks Thursday will be quite the nail-biter for him.

Why will Rory win this week? And why won’t he?

Berhow: Why will he? Because he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s won twice this year and already came out of a high-stress situation (the Players Championship playoff) on top. No, he hasn’t won the Masters, but he has finished top 10 seven times. He’s likely to be in contention at some point, and if you get enough at-bats one of them is bound to work out in your favor, especially for one of the top-five most-talented players in the game. The golf gods work in mysterious ways. It’s time for some of that heartbreak (like his Pinehurst loss) to even out. Why won’t he win? Because golf (and life) is not fair and nothing is promised on Sunday at Augusta.

Schrock: He claims he’s the most complete golfer he has ever been and the stats back it up this season. The work done in the offseason to rework his takeaway, coupled with a focus on course management and a new golf ball, has him firing on almost all cylinders. Rory has suffered so many scars in recent years as he tried to break this drought. He arrives at Augusta not searching or hoping but playing the best golf of anyone in the world. If not now, when?

Hirsh: It’s easy to see how he wins. The driver gets cooking and we see him hit from spots we haven’t seen players play from since they Tiger-proofed the course (and then they build a bunch of new tees and make the course 8,000 yards next year). How he loses is he starts playing well and then gets to No. 10 and starts feeling the demons of 2011 come back. He just might be broken at Augusta.

I noted his form above, and that has included seemingly improved distance control with his wedges.   To the extent that that shows up this week, he could be a contendah.

But the corollary will include a Bobby Jones citation:

“Golf is a game that is played on a five-inch course – the distance between your ears.”

 And that course unfortunately is not pleasing to Rory's eye.  Or, at least, has not been to date.

What’s a storyline no one is talking about that deserves more attention?

Berhow: I have no under-the-radar storyline to offer but have one random thought to type out: it’s crazy we have reached the 10-year anniversary of Jordan Spieth’s Masters win (which was immediately followed by his Chambers Bay U.S. Open victory). He’s won just one major since those two in 2015 — the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale — and he continues to become a difficult player to predict. His last four Masters starts — MC, T4, MC, T3. The sport is a lot more fun when he’s in contention. I hope he’s in the mix this week.

Schrock: I would have gone with Spieth and I expect Augusta National to stir the Spieth of old next week. I’m going to go with Jon Rahm. His first major season as a member of LIV Golf was a dud outside of a T7 at The Open. His Masters defense fell flat last year and he followed that with a missed cut at the PGA Championship. He remains one of the most talented golfers on the planet but will that show on the biggest stages this year?

Hirsh: I’ll follow Schrock’s lead and go with another LIV golfer in Joaquin Niemann. I will say the people calling him the best player on the planet right now is overblown, but he should have as much expectations on him this week as anyone not named Scottie or Rory. He’s still never finished better than T16 in a major championship and if that continues, that’s not going to be a good look for the competitive balance on LIV Golf.

That's certainly a respectable range of answers, though are any of those stories really underreported?

We always hear that ANGC will fix Jordan, which very much seems to be the case, except when it isn't.

They have more to say on the LIV angle, but I have no explanation for what's become of Jon Rahm, except to note that he took the easy money.  What did we think would happen to his game?  And, contra Hirsch, I'll say that Niemann has gotten far more press than a guy that's never had a top ten in a major deserves....

Most likely to win a green jacket first: Morikawa, Xander or JT?

Berhow: Xander and Collin have both played very well here but I’ll give the slight nod to Morikawa, who has the perfect game for this golf course. He’s also had an awesome season so far — two runner-up finishes, a T10 and pair of T17s. Oh, and his last three starts at Augusta? All top 10s. His ball-striking is back to being among the game’s best (currently 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach), he’s confident and he’s got a little chip on his shoulder looking for that next win. Heck, maybe he wins this thing this year?

Schrock: I think the likely answer is Xander but I’ll make the case for JT. In the age of Trackman and dome golfers, JT is a true artist. When he’s playing at his best, his game and imagination should fit Augusta perfectly. He is finally out of the wilderness and has been playing like a top-10 player for six months. Don’t be surprised if he’s slipping on the green jacket Sunday.

Hirsh: It’s Morikawa. He’s just due. He’d probably be my pick if it wasn’t for McIlroy. While he doesn’t have the prodigious length, his elite ball-striking is tailor-made for Augusta, which is one of the few courses the Tour plays where angles still matter. I like him a lot this week.

First?  Tough because my instinct is Xander, though I don't especially like him this year, mostly because he hasn't shown any form since his return.  Jt and Collin have been on kind of the same path, showing some form and getting into the mix, but they certainly haven't finished.  

But since Collin doesn't think he owes anyone anything, I'll just remind him that that goes both ways.

While several PGA Tour headliners took last week off, a dozen Augusta-bound players competed at LIV Golf Miami. Rank your top-five Masters contenders from the group that just played a tune-up in Florida.

Berhow: My subjective ranking goes 1) Bryson, 2) Rahm, 3) Brooks Koepka, 4) Phil Mickelson, and 5) Cameron Smith. Joaquin Niemann seems like a guy ready to break out at a major at some point, but we haven’t seen it yet. Smith is the curious one — five top 10s in his last seven trips here, but he didn’t do much (T63, T32, MC) in his three other major starts last season. Is this the week he jumps back on everyone’s radar?

Schrock: Man, this is tough. I’ll go 1) Bryson, 2) Rahm, 3) Brooks, 4) Sergio Garcia, 5) Tyrrell Hatton. I think the top three are pretty clear. Sergio Garcia has been playing really good golf for the better part of a year now and has good history at Augusta National. It feels like a week where he could contend. I know Joaquin Niemann has been lighting up LIV, but until he cards a top-15 in a major, I can’t look at him as a legitimate threat to make noise at Augusta. Hatton got kicked in the teeth by Doral, but he has been playing well over the last six months. He finished T9 at Augusta last year, and I think he’ll be lingering to start the weekend. Phil could very well turn back the clock one more time, but he’s a pass for me.

Hirsh: 1) Rahm, 2) Niemann 3) Sergio 4) Brooks Koepka 5) Bryson. Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bryson doesn’t make the cut. He didn’t make the cut in 2022 or 2023. The concept that he figured something out last year seems foolish. Nobody really figures out Augusta National except Tiger. Rahm is the clear top dawg here as he needs to show he can compete in the majors still after a lackluster showing last year. As I mentioned above, Niemann wants to shake the doubters of his major prospects. Sergio Garcia’s play of late really makes me think he could do something special in his 40s.

So two of the three leave out the Best. Player. In. The. World?  And Josh Berhow has me doing spit takes because he includes the guy that called a man without a major top ten the best player in the world.  Is this fun or what?

For those inclined towards deep dives, Geoff has a two-parter on the evolution of the persnickety third hole:

Alister MacKenzie considered Augusta National’s third hole to be nearly perfect.

The club contends it is the least changed hole on the course.

I’m not sure either party is correct. But we still love ’em!

On the eve of the 89th Masters where no intentional design changes have taken place, the drive-and-pitch par-4 may see a modest impact from last year’s hurricane. But a significant change has already been seen this century in how players attack MacKenzie’s supposedly lightly changed hole.

At a venue the world knows better than their home courses, the third somehow retains an air of mysteriousness, cautiousness, and extreme respect. Watching Masters action there is rarely dull. It’s also the last two-shotter at Augusta National to retain an indefinable, sure-fire way to play it. There is still plenty of risk, reward, and that fun fine line sensibility of a hole where prospects for a 3 on the card can quickly turn to a 5 with only the slightest mistake.

Modern technology and an early 80s landing area change have made the straightaway, uphill hole a little less option-rich. But with added distance has come the excitement of seeing players attempting to drive the green even if they need a lucky bounce to have a tee shot finish on the putting surface. The third’s left hole location remains as difficult to play to as it has since 1933, and is as dangerous to attack as Sunday’s back right pin on 12. And while the tightened landing area and insane carry distances remain, number three may see a rekindling of certain playing dimensions due to tree losses. After all, the current mentality to bomb away off the tee has done little to change its scoring average. (The thinking behind that approach covered in Part 2 of this saga might even be causing players unnecessary stress.)

Mastery of the third has been key to Scottie Scheffler’s two Green Jackets, including the site of his incredible 2022 chip-in. He’s four-under-par there in 20 competitive rounds at Augusta National. With 18 hole coverage, every shot on demand, and the collective appreciation for shorter par 4s that everyone can enjoy playing or watching, the third hole has become an early indicator of final round glory as the brutal stretch of 4-5-6 awaits.

But is it a great hole? Or just a little awkward enough to seem more interesting? I’m not sure co-architect and club co-founder Bobby Jones adored it as much as his design partner Alister MacKenzie, whose extreme enthusiasm for “Flowering Peach” may have been as much about keeping Clifford Roberts from overmeddling. Roberts was MacKenzie’s worst nightmare for a client: he constantly offered ideas while claiming he knew nothing about course design. And he didn’t pay MacKenzie’s bill.

That last 'graph has a boatload of  Augusta history in it.  Have you read David Owen's take on it all yet?  What are you waiting for?  It's a great story because the event they created was so damn improbable given the long odds.... Do yourself a favor and give it a read.  You can thank me later.

Spoiler alert, the modern professional will always bomb it off the tee here.  This is from Geoff's Part 2:

The third hole serves as an early stress-test and birdie chance before the hang-on-for-dear-life stretch of 4-5-6-7. As the 2025 approaches and we are still three Masters away from a possible rollback, the tee shot stress has been minimized by the ability to bomb away from the tee toward the widest part of the hole using the most forgiving club in the bag.

“There's not too much thought to the tee shot anymore,” says 2008 Masters Champion Trevor Immelman. “You're looking at about 275, 280 to cover the set of bunkers down the left-hand side, so the majority of them have got that shot, no problem. So if it's calm, even if the hole location is on the left--which is the most tricky--we're still seeing guys blasting it down there just short of the upslope and then playing 15 or 20 feet out to the right of the hole from about 60 or 70 yards.”

Into the wind, Immelman says players still “have to make a decision” but nearly all players want a shorter, more lofted approach iron generating the most spin.

Even this guy, the best driver of the ball in golf, recognizes the effect that distance has on the game:

While Rory McIlroy apologetically believes the tee shot today is a bit “thoughtless,” he says it wasn’t always that way.

“My first Masters was 2009 and I remember you had to hit a good drive to clear those bunkers. The only [pin] I think about not hitting driver is when it’s front left. Even when its front right I try to hit it into the front bunker and get an angle up the green.”

Playing close to the green has become more popular now that players are able to crank one out there 330. In faster conditions, the large valley in front of the green acts more like a pinball machine during Masters week. Drives run up the slope toward the infinity green, then down and sometimes in a swooping half-circle as they ride the grain. Watching what the ball does when it lands off the tee and into the green is one of the more nuanced Masters spectating pleasures.

Increasingly, players have been happy to catch the greenside bunker for what is a pretty simple recovery shot from the manicured sand. Adam Scott hit such a drive in last year’s final round, accounting for one of the three eagles in 2024 when he holed out from the sand.

A fun deep dive.

Less successful was Shack's April Fools Day post.  You can explore it on your own should you so choose, but it's long past time to blow up that holiday.

That's it for today, kids.  Have a great week and I'll be back....