Monday, January 10, 2022

Weekend Wrap

As predicted, football grabbed the lion's share of my attention yesterday, though I did catch some of the front-nine action.  Seemed as though scoring was pretty good, no?

Kapalua Kraziness - Yeah, we love our alliterations far more than we should, but Golf Digest had beaten me to Maui Madness, though their ode to Old Man Par seems a tad archaic:

Par means many things to many people. For the USGA, it’s a gold standard worthy of protection. For everyday golfers, a par is something to celebrate. For the advanced analytics crowd, it’s a wholly arbitrary and essentially irrelevant number. For all the beating par takes, it does serve a genuine purpose—a benchmark for comparison. Golf has no standardized field of competition, and players compete at different times. Without those simple shorthand figures, -7 or +2, keeping score in this game would be downright impossible. Ask a pro what he shot after a round and he’s far more likely to say four under than “68.” It’s how we conceptualize scores.

Par has always been irrelevant, it's just now becoming embarrassingly irrelevant.... 

Cameron Smith, then, accomplished something genuinely extraordinary during an uncannily windless week on Maui. In edging Jon Rahm to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions by a
shot, the 28-year-old Aussie scored better than any other PGA Tour player ever has over the course of a golf tournament. At least in relation to Old Man Par.

Smith’s winning 34-under total—not a typo—broke Ernie Els’ previous 72-hole scoring record of 31 under, set at Kapalua in 2003. Prior to Sunday, the lowest winning score in relation to par for any tour event was Pat Perez’ 33 under to win the 2009 Bob Hope Classic, a five-round event. Smith at the Sentry isn’t exactly Tiger at the U.S. Open at Torrey in 2008, or even Phil at the PGA at Kiawah in 2021, but the now four-time tour winner earned some pretty impressive real estate in the record books.

 The author adds context, though I don't think it reduces the shock value much at all:

Some context for the record-breaking performance: Despite no rain in the forecast either day, the tour opted for preferred lies on Thursday and Friday. That made the already scoreable Plantation Course at Kapalua even more scoreable. The Coore-Crenshaw redesign is breathtaking in its scope and a legitimately fun track that tumbles down a mountainside toward the Pacific, but it needs wind to protect it from a field full of the most recent PGA Tour winners. Absolutely begs for it. The fairways are the widest on tour, wide enough for resort-goers to enjoy their yearly round without having to buy another box of balls at the turn. The greens are huge. The tropical humidity and frequent rain keep the course soft, and all the par 5s are reachable. (Side note: There’s no reason the fifth hole should play as a par 5 going forward. Guys hit 9-iron in all week. Don’t be surprised if Kapalua’s 2023 New Year’s resolution is to become a par 72.) Without wind, well, this is what happens. It’s a common theme in low scoring. No wind.

He could have added that there are only three Par-3's on the courses, and scoring is typically highest on those one-shotters.

The scandal (I know, a tad melodramatic) buried there in was that lift-clean-cheat on Thursday and Friday, because I guess some hapless amateur caught a mudball in the Pro-Am.  seriously kids, what's going on with the Tour on that subject?  They now let these guys put their grubby paws on their golfballs if there's rain in the forecast...in Madagascar.

Nick Piastowski feels for a certain Spaniard, and even goes to the trouble to write his game story lede:

Dateline, Kapalua, Hawaii. Jon Rahm, behind no round worse than seven-under 66, and after a
third-round 61, the best score ever on the Plantation Course at Kapalua, won the Tournament of Champions behind a 33-under total, the lowest 72-hole score in relation to par in the history of the PGA Tour. One stroke behind, in second, was Matt Jones, whose 32-under total also bested the previous scoring mark.

You deserve it, fellas. Your very own, GOLF.com winner and runner-up lead. Print it out and hang it on the fridge if you like.

Maybe if it was King Louis or Paul Casey....  But this guy wine enough that he doesn't need the fake version.  Even better is that Rahm gets it:

“Well, this golf course only has one defense, and that’s the wind,” Rahm said. “If people are shooting between 20- and 26-under with 20-mile-an-hour winds, what do you expect us to do when there’s absolutely no wind? Maybe, maybe getting to 10 miles an hour gusting every so often, right?

“I think that’s the difference. I’m not surprised. When it comes to records, I think, what was it, Jordan [Spieth] shot 30, D.J. [Dustin Johnson] shot 31, and Ernie [Els] shot 31, right? And all three of them won by a margin. It’s kind of weird when you look forward in the records that there’s two of us that beat that score and lost by one and two. So, you know, I know we did a really good job and we shot low, but I think those 30- and 31-unders deserve a lot more credit than my 33-under.”

Dare we be serious about this for just a sec?  Obviously this kind of scoring will inevitably be tied into the ongoing distance debate, with both sides using the data as supports their own biases.  For a while there, those opposed to any greater equipment regulations made the valid point that the increased distance wasn't resulting in lower scores.  My own thoughts were that, at least to some extent, that was the result of lengthening courses and agronomic measures such as firmer/faster conditions, especially on greens.

My own personal sense is that the world has kept turning, and that the combination of raw speed/power, undoubtedly combined with other factors including improved technology (think launch monitors and their use to dial in wedge distances), has now blown past the superintendent's ability to keep scoring under control.  And I'll guess that John Rahm agrees with your humble blogger...

The most notable comments on this scoring came from Justin Thomas, which are the basis of the Tour Confidential panel's lead question:

1. Cam Smith won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, in Maui, on Sunday with an eye-popping score of 34-under, beating Jon Rahm by just one stroke. The story of the week is in there: yep, the scoring, in particular in the third round when the 38-player field averaged nearly six under par. Justin Thomas, one of two players to shoot a course-record 12 under on Saturday, described the birdie bonanza this way: “Golf fans just need to understand what causes scores. I think everybody, they just see, ‘Oh, they’re hitting it so far now, that’s why it’s so low.’ It’s like no, it’s so low because it’s so soft and if you give us soft conditions, fairways this big, course this short, we’re going to shoot nothing.” Does JT have it right? Do gettable conditions have more impact on scoring than the distance boom?

Ummmm, the bit that jumps out to me is the "a course this short", because Kapalua maxes out at 7,596 yards, and in soft conditions should obviously play longer.  You see what he's done there, so let's see if the writers pick up on it:

Sean Zak: There’s no question, just don’t let JT downplay one half of this debate. A few times a year, a tricky course will be set up firm, with greens Stimping at 14. Muirfield Village is a great example. Players have to work harder, caddies have to work harder. Scoring is just plain hard. Generally, when conditions are soft, the aerial assault is a game of darts with these robots swinging the clubs. And when they hit it as far as they do, it’s assault with wedges only. That’s more of the issue.

Josh Sens: For sure. That’s why Tiger-proofing did anything but. And why just adding distance now mostly just narrows the pool of potential winners (while having terrible trickle down effects in the amateur game). The better answer is through great architecture and thoughtful setup that tests without becoming tricked up. Easier said than done.

Michael Bamberger: Right, Josh. Nick Price said this in 1998: If you want to Tiger-proof a course, make it shorter. The best course I’ve seen for the pros in years was Royal Melbourne. Short, bouncy, curvey.

Dylan Dethier: Sure. There’s also yardage and there’s yardage. The greens were soft this week at Kapalua. But the fairways were still plenty slopey. Some of the long holes played a whole bunch shorter because balls were rolling 30, 40, 60 yards once they landed. At Pebble Beach you can’t really say the same, especially when it’s 53 degrees and foggy. The boring answer here is the right one: It’s a combination of factors! But an incredibly wide course with extra rollout in the fairways that’s also soft on the greens is basically the perfect way to generate low scores.

James Colgan: Well yes, JT is 100 percent right. Soft conditions help low scores. But, as Sean pointed out, it sure doesn’t hurt to play from soft conditions with a wedge in hand. It’s a self-perpetuating cycle.

I give them a Gentleman's B.  As I've said a million times, firms and bouncy is the best defense, but spend ten minutes perusing the Tour's schedule, and you'll quickly realize that #firmandfast will be the exception.  

The problem is partially the distance they hit it, for sure, but it's also how straight the ball goes.  The soft, windless conditions not only make it a birdie-fest, but dramatically reduces the number of bogies and worse, because the bad shots don't go far enough off line to miss those huge fairways.

I didn't watch all that much of the weekend, though I did see a bunch of the first two rounds.  The most damning thing I can say is that I never got the sense that Jon Rahm was actually playing all that well, yet he shot -33!

2. World No. 1 Jon Rahm, fresh off not playing since the middle of October, looked like he had hardly skipped a beat at the Tournament of Champions, peeling off rounds of 66, 66, a course-record 61 and an 66, only to not win on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Four rounds into 2022, let’s set a prop bet: Rahm will win over/under four times this year. And please explain your answer!

Zak: Under! Only once in his professional life has Rahm won four times in a calendar year, and that’s inclusive of both European and PGA Tour schedules. That’s a lot of winning. There are too many good players to consistently beat like that. Disclaimer: I’d love to watch a 6-win season!

Bamberger: I don’t know. Three more? I could see it. I’ll take four.

Sens: Well, since I picked him to win the Grand Slam a few weeks ago, I should prolly stick with ‘over.’

Dethier: Under. It’s damn hard to win four times on Tour! He’ll win three, though, which is pretty close.

Colgan: It’s about time somebody took over golf for a period of time again. If anybody’s gonna do it, it’ll be Rahm. Give me the over.

As I tried to say Friday in response to the Golf Channel announcers promoting a Rahmbo-Collin Morikawa cage match, I'm most interested in whether the Spaniard can separate himself from the pack to any meaningful degree.  Morikawa is a cold-blooded assassin, but I don't actually think he's consistently good enough with the putter to run away from the pack.  Rahm is the only guy I think can do that, but doing it very difficult.  As the man once said, these guys are good!

I think we can all agree that the week of the Model Local Rule was a yawn:

4. Week 1 of the new PGA Tour rules changes is in the books, and a wrinkle has revealed itself with the use of Tour-approved yardage books, and the ban on the formerly-allowed greens books. While most players said they were OK with the change, honesty will be in play, as there will be little to prevent a player or caddie from simply taking the old info and penciling it in the new books. Cause for concern?

Zak: Golf’s honor code should win out here. This is a player-driven rule, and players don’t want their reputation tarnished if any little advantage they (or their caddie) creates becomes a stinky rumor. The reliance upon that endless amount of information should cede in importance to players’ routines, too.

Bamberger: I agree. When guys cheat, it’s usually because the opportunity presents itself, not because it’s premeditated.

Sens: In the end, you still have to hit the shots and stroke the putts. I suppose some might try to take advantage, but even if they do, will it have a profound impact on results? I doubt it.

Dethier: I’m with Sens. Does it really matter? They holed plenty of birdie putts this week, theoretically without the books. If you give golfers access to extra resources, they’ll use them, but I’m not convinced they actually help these finely-tuned pros that much. I hope they don’t cheat, because cheating is a bummer, but I’m not concerned about any potential advantage. Read the putt, hit the putt.

Colgan: I’m not too worried about it. We rely on honesty all the time in the golf, I don’t see why this would be any different. And when honesty doesn’t work? Karma is a powerful beast.

How about just noting that -34 was achieved without the books.... I think it's completely fair and important to note the enforcement issues, but at least they didn't use that as an excuse to do nothing.  And, as I've said often, so glad that this initiative came from the players.

Women's Day - Big announcement from the USGA on Friday, which was all good news for sure.  I'll start with the least exciting bit:

The U.S. Women’s Open is adding a presenting partner that will allow the USGA to nearly double the championship’s prize money payout to $10 million in 2022, the association
announced on Friday.

ProMedica has been brought on as the first-ever presenting sponsor of a USGA championship. This will allow the governing body to boost the overall prize money payout in the championship by $4.5 million, bringing it a couple million shy of the $12.5 million the association hands out at the men's U.S. Open. However, Mike Whan, the USGA CEO, said the purse will be bumped to $11 million and then $12 million over the next five years.

The presenting sponsor thing is a classless bit for a national championship, though probably necessary given the actual economics of women's golf.  The more important bit is the announcement of future venues, which leaves them with quite the Murderer's Row for the next decade:

2022: Pine Needles Lodge & Golf Club

2023: Pebble Beach Golf Links

2024: Lancaster Country Club

2025: Erin Hills

2026: The Riviera Country Club

2027: Inverness Club

2028: Oakmont Country Club

2029: Pinehurst Resort & Country Club

2030: Interlachen Country Club

2031: Oakland Hills Country Club

2034: Merion Golf Club

2038: Oakmont Country Club

2042: Oakland Hills Country Club

2046: Merion Golf Club

Not sure I'll be with you to cover that Open at Merion in 2046, so you might need to make other arrangements.

My only concern is that, while it's great to have the women play storied venues such as Oakmont and Pebble, shouldn't they also be conscious of carving out their own presence that's not dependent upon the patriarchy?  A place like Pine Needles I'd think, though it's a bit odd to include both PN and Pinehurst in their rota.

Inverness and Oakland Hills are both abandoned U.S. Open venues, suddenly of interest after faithful restorations of those Donald Ross classics (the former of which was a worthy Solheim Cup venue last fall).

The TC gang had thoughts:

3. The USGA, in Mike Whan’s first major move as the governing body’s new CEO, announced three blockbuster changes to the U.S. Women’s Open. Among the enhancements: more signature venues — including Riviera in 2026, Inverness in 2027 and Pinehurst No. 2 in a back-to-back with the men in 2029 — and a boost in purse size, from $5.5 million last year to $10 million this year, with a promise to take it soon to $12 million. What is the biggest potential ripple effect from these announcements?

Zak: Events love to boast a big purse size. Events love having the “biggest purse in golf.” All it will do is continue to raise the bar for the second biggest purse in golf. And the third and the fourth. Sure, adding a presenting sponsor technically cheapens the name of the event, but if that’s what it takes for women’s golf to move closer to equal pay for its championships, it is such a small, small price to pay.

Sens: The money is the least interesting part of it. Staging events at cooler venues makes for more compelling competitions, which draws more eyeballs. Which the women’s game deserves.

Dethier: The biggest potential ripple effect is that the U.S. Women’s Open cements itself as the biggest event in all of women’s golf, that more people are eager to watch them play familiar and/or intriguing golf courses and therefore more people stick with the game both as a televised product and as a pastime at home. That’s best-case, of course! But the USGA is doing the right thing in embracing the women’s game wholeheartedly. It’s a non-profit, after all, with the stated goal of growing the game. When it comes to getting girls and women involved, there’s still plenty of work to do. A few million bucks to the best women on the planet is just a start.

Bamberger: BIGGEST ripple effect? More exposure for the women’s game, which means more girls, all over the world, taking up the game.

Colgan: You’re right on, Sean. Purse payouts, exposure, growth — they all come incrementally. Big changes mean smaller changes, too. In this case, the purse jump has the potential to reimagine the way we view prize money for women. That’s a damn good thing, and I’d say presents a pretty significant ripple effect.

They still have to earn those eyeballs, which I suspect will remain a struggle.  

Let me just leave you with one point, the significance of which I remain unclear.  The women's game differs from the men's in that the LPGA controls all of the women's majors, with this one exception.  Obviously, with former LPGA Commish Mike Whan running the USGA that might not matter much, but this should be, but hasn't always been, the most important event in women's golf.  Cynic that I am, it's probably the most important again by default, since the LPGA has committed an unforced error and abdicate their ties to the historic Dinah Shore.

Crypto Golf - Only because the TC panel covers it, but this silly item appeared last week:

Dudas, 42, is a native of Connecticut and graduate of Stanford who grew up playing golf and now lives in Manhattan, an entrepreneur with a handful of start-ups under his belt. He is also a driving force behind LinksDAO, a virtual community that aims to shake things up in the real world by reimagining the country club. Central to LinksDAO’s plans, as outlined on multiple online platforms, is to buy a Top 100-caliber course and transform it into a modern golf and leisure club: a playground for “a global community of thousands of enthusiasts.”

This crowdfunded purchase would be made with cryptocurrency.

Dudas is clearly going for the Meltwater Mentions, but I hope he's aware that he's ineligible for the Tour's PIP program.

 But here's where I think he goes off the rails:

As for other vagaries around the concept, some clarity can be found in the term DAO itself, which sounds like Confucian philosophy but isn’t. It stands for decentralized autonomous organization: a governing body without a top-down leadership. Decisions are community-based instead and carried out on the blockchain, a secure database for recording transactions.

If you’re of a certain age or analog mindset, the previous paragraph may have left your head spinning. But the gist is this: All the key decisions around the club — from its location and its price points to its daily operations — will be made by community members.

Which drops just as your humble blogger has come to the conclusion that member ownership is destined for the ash heap of history.  I actually think that the better model moving forward is for strong central control, as it's the only way in which costs can be controlled.  

5. LinksDAO, a virtual community of golf-lovers with a nose for disruption is aiming to shake things up in the real world by reimagining the country club. Central to LinksDAO’s plans is to buy a Top 100-caliber course and transform it into a modern golf and leisure club: a playground for “a global community of thousands of enthusiasts.” This crowdfunded purchase would be made with cryptocurrency, and the collective said it has already raised $11 million. In your mind, does this approach to club-building have legs?

Zak: Totally! People have more money, more work freedom, a greater ability to travel and more enhanced communication practices than ever before. Investing it in tangible things, experiences, or community building has also become increasingly popular with the best generation: the millennials (wink, wink). It makes perfect sense. Side note: They’ll need a lot more than $11 million to create or buy a Top 100-caliber course.

Sens: Raising the money to buy and renovate a course strikes me as the easy part. The tougher part will be delivering on the other disruptive pledges these groups are making. LinksDAO, like other recently formed groups in this space, say they want to upend stodgy club conventions and create a new, more egalitarian culture. And they plan to do it by giving every member a say. Sounds great in theory. But what happens when the tough decisions start. Which property, exactly, do you buy? Who gets the premiere tee times? Where do you cap membership? And on. No matter what currency people spend, no matter what platform they communicate on, in the end, they’re still people, driven by ego and self-interest. Prone to power grabs both large and petty. Some are quite nice. Many are insufferable. That, in my opinion, is where the bigger challenges lie for LinksDAO and the others. At some point, as they go about trying to reimagine the old country club model and bring this dreamy ‘community’ from the ether to the real world, they’re going to run up against human nature. Crypto financing and utopian talk do not alone solve for that. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

Bamberger: Yes, it has legs. People are tired of class distinction in every walk of life. “You’re good enough for us; you’re not.” Here, if you can pay, you can play. Look at how well the Pebble Beaches and the Pinehursts are doing. This is an extension of that, with less tradition, and lower walls. It’s like hoodies. That’s not a debate anymore. Of COURSE you can wear a hoodie. This is another version of that. This is, Come on in.

Dethier: We’ve seen all manner of country club reinvention in the last decade-plus, and this is another version of that. I welcome further reinvention! With that said, while I’m no Luddite I think these projects have raised more questions than answers, so far. The crypto gang is great at talking a big game, and there are a lot of them, and they are worth a lot of money. How that actually translates to a more welcoming experience when you pull up to a course? I’m eager to see.

Colgan: This particular idea seems like a nightmarish web of legal and logistical hurdles, but as far as disrupting the traditional country club structure is concerned, consider me a supporter. It’s about time somebody found some success with a different approach.

I find this laugh-out-loud funny.... Yeah, everyone has a criticism of the existing private clubs, but they're going to acquire a top-100 course using crypto-currency, and everyone is going to be welcome?  Yeah, that's not how this here planet works.... It's just going to be hipster, crypto-elite, which sounds far more terrifying to me than the stuffy snobs that currently make us tuck our shirts in.  Of course, I'm an old guy that just wants you to get off my lawn, so take my criticism for what it's worth.

Exit Bound - I'm looking to get on with my day, but want to cover something that relates to our discussion of scoring last weekend.  Both Golf Digest and Golfweek have articles up with their authors detailing that which they hope for in 2022.  The former is pretty conventional (a Tiger sighting, how imaginative), but does include this on scoring:

Tour events won by a score of single-digits under par (Aka, less birdie-fests)

Call this a curmudgeon take. Sure, fans love birdies. But last season was the first in the history of the PGA Tour (non-majors) that there was not a tournament won by a player shooting single-digits under par. (Rory McIlroy shot 10 under to win at Quail Hollow, the lowest total of the season.) This doesn’t mean all PGA Tour setups are too easy. A number of cut lines were still over par. To look at the winning score is to isolate the most elite of the elite. And they are using equipment more optimized to their games than ever before. And the depth of talent on the PGA Tour has seemingly never been better.

Still, variability from tournament to tournament maintains the distinctiveness of each tournament. A few more difficult setups will break up some of the monotony. Traditionalists still like seeing players struggle to make pars at a U.S. Open. Usually, we get a Honda Classic or Memorial Tournament where pars are not easy to come by, too. Let’s hope that an emphasis by PGA Tour setup officials in 2022 brings back scoring just a hair. —Stephen Hennessey

You mean like -34?  

Before I move on, this was interesting as well:

Calls for armlock ban grow

Despite a non-insignificant amount of players using the method, there appears to be a tangible

groundswell against the armlock, which some assert takes the art and skill out of putting. Billy Horschel called for a ban after playing a round with Will Zalatoris (who uses the armlock) during last year’s RBC Heritage, with Xander Schauffele experimenting with and later abandoning it while simultaneously agreeing with Horschel’s sentiments. “I am for banning the armlock putters, but if everyone else is going to use it, and I feel like they have a bigger advantage, I may as well do the same,” Schauffele said at the Memorial. We’re not necessarily advocating for the ban itself, but merely for the debate to expand. Because there’s nothing better than getting bent out of shape about the Rules of Golf. “Better” is the word we are looking for, yes? —J.B.

That's a curiously evasive manner of presenting, but this seems a logical next initiative from those players that moved to ban the greenreading books.  Over to you, Rory.

The Golfweek version, though, has the entry of greatest interest to your humble blogger:

Let it blow at St. Andrews

It might be wishful thinking, especially if the wind doesn’t blow off the North Sea, but I want to see the Old Grand Lady stand up to the big boys of professional golf in the 150th Open Championship.

Of all the 2022 tournaments, this is one that doesn’t need a cloud of potential embarrassment looming overhead.

But that’s going to be the case if the air is still. If it is, most likely, the Home of Golf is going to get ransacked. Right in front of the Royal & Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews in Scotland, which was founded in 1754.

Repeat, if the wind doesn’t blow, the rumpled, timeworn ground will get lit up by bigger, faster, and stronger players teaming with technology to launch missiles and make the course play more to a par of 68 than its scorecard-written 72.

With little room to lengthen the course, players will be salivating. The most recent year the Old Course hosted the Open was 2015, when Zach Johnson shot 66-71-70-66 and won in a playoff in 2015. That year, the course played to just under 7,300 yards and featured seven par-4s measuring under 400 yards, including the 356-yard 18th, which Bryson DeChambeau might reach with a 3-iron this year.

In 2000, when Tiger Woods completed the career grand slam on the Old Course, he set the scoring record of 19 under with rounds of 67-66-67-69.

Unless the course is saved by the much-needed ally named wind, Tiger’s record is gone. Branden Grace holds the record for the lowest round in major championship history with a 62 (Royal Birkdale in 2017). Unless it blows, that’s gone.

What would the powers in the R&A and U.S. golf Association do if someone puts his signature to a 59? Heck, a 58? Or two or three players do. Picture DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and others unleashing lumber and driving multiple greens or at the least having flip wedges into the greens over and over and over again.

And the greens aren’t exactly menacing.

It could be a red-number blitz of humiliation. If so, perhaps it would be the proverbial final straw and significant action will be taken to limit distance. But after all these years, it would just be sad if it came at the expense of the Old Grand Lady. So let it blow, let it blow, let it blow.

I've had this date metaphorically circled on my calendar for quite some time.  It's one thing to shoot -34 at a glorified silly-season event like Kapalua, but there is no limiting factor to how low they could go on the Old Course if it's soft and windless.   

But is Steve right to hope for wind?  Or is it better to see the wages of our sins and have someone post a 59 in a major, as a way to force the governing bodies to address the equipment issues.  

On that cheerful note, I'll wish you a good week.  I head home Thursday, but have no clue as to whether I'll blog further this week.  That will depend upon the combination of content and motivation, neither of which has been in great supply.

Friday, January 7, 2022

Late-Week Laments

Happy to be back on skis, though not the best conditions as it's far too warm.  But good to be out in the fresh air and making turns, even though barely a handful felt competent.  I'm not quite as self-critical of my skiing as of my golf, which makes sense considering the absence of the dreaded pencil.

The wife of a good ski buddy works at Park City Hospital and, upon leaving one night, found a few friends waiting for her:


For those effete Eastern intellectuals, that would be a herd of elk.  I've heard talk of moose being visible off one of the lifts, but haven't yet seen for my ownself.

Maui Mishegoss -  Oh, I had it on the tube last night just for those views, though hard to work up any real interest in it:

Our long national nightmare is over, for the days of golf-less Sundays are at last in the rearview mirror. The PGA Tour returned from its holiday slumber on a board-of-tourism day in Hawaii, the type that makes you wonder why you live in a place that snows—and that makes you curse the COVID gods for keeping you confined to your Maui hotel room. Okay, maybe that’s just me.

In more pertinent matters, here are five takeaways from the Sentry Tournament of Champions—which, after one year of letting in all Tour Championship qualifiers, is back to being a truly winners-only event.

If your humble blogger whining about mountain conditions is rightly considered a first-world problem, what do we call a complaint about the PGA Tour's hour-and-half off-season?   

We shouldn't be drawing takeaways from 18-holes after weeks off, but if I had to pick one....

Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay showed zero signs of rust

A number of top players essentially skipped the fall season—including Jon Rahm, who explained on Tuesday that his two-month break was prompted not just by his rollercoaster 2021 but an 18-month stretch of hectic golf. After missing the cut in his native Spain, he headed back home to Arizona to spend time with his wife and baby boy, Kepa. During that familial stretch he nearly lost his World No. 1 ranking to Collin Morikawa, only for the young American to stumble down the stretch at the Hero World Challenge to remain at No. 2.

Rahm looks keen on fending off Morikawa for at least one more week. He displayed zero signs of rust in shooting a bogey-free seven-under 66 on Thursday. It was an encouraging start to the year for a player who has sky-high expectations—both from himself and the media—for 2022.

Patrick Cantlay has not played a PGA Tour event since “winning” the Tour Championship and collecting the $15 million FedEx Cup grand prize in September. He hardly played during the break and, as is his habit, stayed completely off the radar by reading books on his couch. After an opening bogey on Thursday he too kicked it into midseason form, playing his last 17 in eight under to post 66. Nice to return from a long layoff and be greeted by the widest fairways on tour.

The commentary crew was, alas, in mid-season form, with an interminable, inane conversation about whether or not the Tour would devolve into a rivalry between the top two players in the world.  There's little case to be made that those two, Rahm and Morikawa, have separated from the pack to that extent, but then they blather on about "Rory could make a run" and I go scrambling for the Mute button.... Good times.

If there is any significance to this week, it's that it ushers in the Model Local Rule era:

Shack goes deep on this subject in a freebie Quad post, including this on the more significant of the two restrictions now in place:

But this week’s changes deliver a monumental line of demarcation in two ways: the two-inch difference in driver shaft maximum length is designed by the governing bodies to get ahead of a
players going to 48-inch drivers. And a local rule on what kind of information players can access on the greens was the idea of some leading players after the governing bodies could not go all the way and eliminate the painful over-reliance on arrow-filled cheat sheets to read putts.

In a document prepared for players with the full support of the PGA Tour’s Player Advisory Council, the green book ban’s rationale was clear:

“The purpose of this Model Local Rule is to return to a position where players and caddies use their skill and judgment, along with any information gained through experience, preparation and practice to read the line of play on the putting green.”

That’s a pretty big deal. Especially since the green reading rule could impact the play of those hooked on the books. There could also be monitoring issues for the rules staff as players adapt to the local rule. A worst-case scenario could see a player accuse another of using disallowed books or topography info copied from a banned source.

I think so to, and am especially happy that the players asserted themselves on this issue.  We don't always applaud their instincts, think JT and backstopping, but this is a positive in your humble blogger's view.

Saudi Shenanigans - That early February date will be good fun, as it turns out that players seem to like those large appearance fees.  We have this from the continent formerly known as Europe:

The DP World Tour – the recently rebranded European Tour – will grant permission to players to take part in the controversial Saudi International next month following weeks of intense negotiations.

By the Monday deadline, between 30 and 40 members of the tour had requested releases to play in the Asian Tour-run event near Jeddah, from 3 February. It is sponsored by the Saudi public investment fund and carries huge appearance fees.

The Saudi International has publicised a field including players such as Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio García, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Henrik Stenson, Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood. All required DP World Tour grace. It remains to be seen how seriously, if at all, Stenson’s Saudi involvement harms his aspirations of being Europe’s 2023 Ryder Cup captain. Whether or not top golfers are independent traders or bound by membership criteria of tours has been the subject of much debate.

Obviously this has many layers of amusement, not least being that as recently as yesterday this was a Euro Tour event.  Sparing no effort, I took a look at that Tour's website which yielded two interesting facts:

  1. The Tour that shall not be named actually has an event that week, the Ras al Khaimah Championship presented by Phoenix Capital, so it's good to know that Keith Pelley learned how to take care of his sponsors at the knees of Nurse Ratched and Kubla Jay.
  2. The URL for the DP World Tour remains europeantour.com.  You guys might want to do something about that...
The field strength metrics for the three events that week figures to be awfully embarrassing for two of those tours....

At his blog, Geoff compiles a series of comments from those in Maui that seem to echo the same talking points.  First, Jordan:

So I think for us players on the PGA TOUR, I think that so far it's been something that has kind of helped the PGA TOUR sit and say, hey, where can we look to satisfy our membership and potentially make some changes going forward that, where there's some similarities potentially to a league like that, but while maintaining kind of the integrity, the 501(C)(6) category that the PGA TOUR has.

And I think that going forward, I mean, I guess we'll have to see. But for me to sit here and -- I mean, I can only say from my point of view I think that it's been beneficial to the players to have competition, and I think the TOUR would say that they probably feel that they're in a better position going forward by having to sit back and kind of take a look at things and make some changes.

Then Justin:

I think the idea is healthy for the, it's healthy, could be healthy for the TOUR. I think two competing tours is not healthy for golf, if that makes sense.

I think if the idea of other competition and other tours or whatever happening, I think is a good opportunity for the TOUR to kind of maybe sit back and us players sit back to realize what can we do better on our TOUR and then make our product better, versus having two competing tours to me is not good because you're diluting the product on both sides and it's just not, you're not going to get the best -- it's not possible to get the best players in the world on both tours. They're either going to be one or the other or a little bit of both.

 Got it.  Competition is good, except when it isn't...

But the funniest piece is by someone named Bob Svrulga (Vanna, I'd like to buy a vowel), a sports columnist at the Washington Post, who has harsh words for those heading to the Kingdom:

The stars who assemble in Saudi Arabia — and it’s currently a group that includes Mickelson, the six-time major champion, as well as Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Sergio García — are doing so for the paychecks, which will reportedly be enormous just for showing up. There’s no disguising the fact that it’s blood money.

I understand that Sergio is only going because of his love of their greens.... Anyone remember that?

He takes some well-aimed shots at Mr. Norman as well:

Here’s Norman, in a November interview with Golf Digest within days of his announcement, immediately trying to distance the PIF from the brutalities inflicted by bin Salman.

“[The PIF is] obviously a commercial operation,” Norman said. “They’re very autonomous. They make investment decisions all around the world. They’ve invested in major U.S. corporations because of commercial reasons. They invested in LIV Golf Investments for a commercial opportunity. They’re passionate about the game of golf.”

He’s a self-serving snake-oil salesman but worse. Don’t trust him. Rather, listen to Sarah Leah Whitson, the executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a nonprofit that promotes democracy and human rights throughout the Middle East and North Africa.
“The notion that the PIF is some independent financial authority that isn’t used to carry out murders and assassinations at the beck and call of Mohammed bin Salman is just patently untrue,” Whitson said by phone. “He does and has been using the PIF as a fig leaf, as a cover, as an intermediate step between his face on things and Saudi Arabia’s face on things.”

We've been down this path many times, but the lack of self-awareness continues to piss off your humble blogger.   Everything they say about the Wahhabis is true, and always has been.  But where have these people been all those years that the Euro Tour hosted this event.  Where is the criticism of Keith Pelley?

But they can't get this out of their minds, but they ignore their own role in it:

To anyone who doubts that, remember the origination of DAWN, the organization Whitson, a former executive at Human Rights Watch, now leads. The group was founded by Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi Arabian journalist and dissident who became a columnist for The Washington Post in 2017.

Khashoggi was a thoughtful and relentless critic of bin Salman and the Saudi government. In October 2018, Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain documents for his impending marriage. He was murdered and most likely dismembered. His body has never been returned to his family. The CIA concluded that bin Salman ordered the killing.

This guy actually works for WaPo, and can only describe Kashoggi as a "columnist"?  Really, is there anything else about those columns that perhaps we should know:

Slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s Washington Post columns were “shaped” by an executive at the Qatar Foundation, an entity funded directly by the Qatari regime which is at odds with Saudi Arabia, according to an article published by the Post on Saturday revealed.

“Text messages between Khashoggi and an executive at Qatar Foundation International show that the executive, Maggie Mitchell Salem, at times shaped the columns he submitted to The Washington Post, proposing topics, drafting material and prodding him to take a harder line against the Saudi government,” a statement in the article read.

Although the published article insinuates the Post’s opinion editor doesn’t envision a conflict of interest, such a matter is highly likely to go against the Post’s ethics and policies guideline that is published on its own website, it reads:

“We do not accept payment – either honoraria or expenses – from governments, government-funded organizations, groups of government officials, political groups or organizations that take positions on controversial issues.”

“A reporter or editor also cannot accept payment from any person, company or organization that he or she covers. And we should avoid accepting money from individuals, companies, trade associations or organizations that lobby government or otherwise try to influence issues the newspaper covers…”

And this is only the tip of the iceberg that WaPo admits to...

and please remember, none of these columns have been retracted.  WaPo is apparently in the business of publishing Qatari intelligence talking points, so forgive me if I don't care what they think about golf.

The Saudis are a noxious regime, and always have been.  Alas, so is the Washington Post.

 On that cheerful note, I must leave you.  Blogging will be on a "as I feel like it" basis, as I expect to watch more football than golf this weekend.

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Midweek Musings

Happy to report that your humble blogger is safely ensconced in the Unplayable Lies Western HQ, though still with things to find and organize.  The mountain just reported 3" of fresh, though we haven't yet decided on whether that suffices to shoot for first chair.  

I'm going to blog just a couple of quick items for today, then figure out what's involved with this skiing thing.  Because, yanno, it's been a while.

PGA22, What Could Go Wrong? - No rest for the weary, With the ink barely dry on their formulaic Year-in-Review pieces, they now are require to pump out the obligatory predictions for the coming year (really, eight months, given we live in that wraparound world). But there's always interesting tidbits and rogue sentiments to be found in such classics of the genre as this from Dylan Dethier:

22 bold, weird and (hopefully) accurate 2022 PGA Tour season predictions

Bold AND weird, you say? 

1. The U.S. Team will win the Presidents Cup.

Let’s start on an extremely sturdy limb: Team USA will beat their International opponents in the Presidents Cup because they basically always do. And although their 2019 victory in Australia required a Sunday comeback, a burnt-out Royal Melbourne was decidedly unfriendly to the visiting American side. This year’s event at Quail Hollow should be better-suited for their big-stadium styles of play. Plus the U.S. has 12 players in the top 16 in the world. The International team has one.

Wow!  You do take risks, don't you.... Predicting that the U.S., with its 11-1-1 record in this event, will win a home game after an historic Ryder Cup rout?  

Dylan actually goes to the trouble of listing the potential International team members, and it's an impressive roster for sure.  Of course, it bears a passing resemblance to the prior thirteen rosters that have gone 1-11-1, so bold and weirs aren't my adjectives of choice.

Want more bold and weirdness?

2. Tiger Woods will play a PGA Tour event.

Other than occasional paparazzi shots from doctors’ appointments, we’ll likely next see Woods in public at the Genesis Invitational in February, where he could return to the scene of his crash and turn the page, one year later. After that we should see Woods at the Players Championship for his World Golf Hall of Fame induction.

I doubt he’ll play before Augusta National, and even that could be a long shot. But if he continues to progress on his current schedule, we’re going to see Tiger Woods tee it up on the PGA Tour in 2022. Count on it.

Look, it's an interesting guessing game, about which none of us unfortunately has a clue.  Just to be contrarian I'll stick my my prediction that Tiger's next start will be in the 2022 Father-Son.

But Dylan is far too modest, in that he has actually buried a bold prediction within his rather anodyne musing about Tiger.  Do you, Dear Reader, expect to see Tiger in L.A. for the Genesis?  Because I would argue that his history is to not show unless he has a compelling economic interest and, further, that in view of the ties to the accident, that that is the last place Tiger will want to be.

Here's a couple to think through as a pair:

4. We’re destined for some delicious hot-mic moments.

We’re approaching the one-year anniversary of Justin Thomas’ unfortunate hot-mic moment from last Tournament of Champions. We’ve just passed the two-year anniversary of Patrick Cantlay’s extremely entertaining hot-mic moment at the 2020 TOC. But this year? We’re getting more. That’s because we’re getting much more golf, period, thanks to the new ESPN+ deal which is revolutionizing PGA Tour Live, basically quadrupling the amount of streaming coverage and getting more cameras — and more microphones — on players when they might not quite expect it.

5. ESPN+ is going to rule.

It’s cheaper than the old PGA Tour Live. When you sign up, you get every other piece of ESPN+ content, too. The streams will show more groups, more players, more hours, and they’ll be synthesized like a broadcast, which should help pacing. Look, nobody is going to argue that Thursdays and Fridays on the PGA Tour are edge-of-your-seat television. But the core demographic of “yeah, lemme throw this on in the background at work and maybe bet on a few matchups while I’m at it” should find this change extremely satisfying.

The next person I meet excited about the additional streaming content will also be the first.... But sure, when your thoughts turn to 2022 no doubt you're most excited about watching those early groups on Thursday morning in Palm Springs, right?

6. The Genesis Scottish Open will be the schedule’s best addition.

It’s always been a joy to get a taste of ‘cross-the-pond golf in the lead-up to the Open Championship, but the crescendo will feel even better now that it’s official. The PGA Tour-European Tour (DP World Tour, we should say) Strategic Alliance has yielded something great: The Genesis Scottish Open, a PGA Tour event the week before the Open at St. Andrews. The final rounds will be broadcast on CBS and everything! Everybody loves to watch Scottish golf. Now we have more of it. Sure, next year we can get greedy about holding this event at a linksier course, but let’s take this step by step and celebrate the wins where they come.

Is Dylan aware that this event has been there all along?  And, while it might be on CBS, it'll be on CBS in the morning... I would think any excitement would be tempered as we wait to see if it draws a better field with PGA Tour co-sanctioning, because I'm unconvinced. 

Also funny is the shade he threw at the venue, though you'll note that it's actually not named.  The venue in question is Tom Doak's Renaissance Club which, while located in linksy North Berwick, is built on property that veers inland from the proper links turf.  It's "linksy" but not a pure links, at least in the opinion of insufferable purists.... As we've discussed a few times but not recently, there aren't that many links that are appropriate for this event, but that's a discussion we can have in July.

Should we get to some predictions about which folks might actually care?

12. The Saudi Golf League will continue to be more smoke than fire.

Until a rival league siphons off several big names from the PGA Tour, they just won’t find much traction. And thus far, they haven’t siphoned off several big names. The Tour seems to have ceded ground in certain battles, like approving waivers for pros to head to this year’s Saudi International, but they seem in good position to win the war — or at least this iteration.

Several?  I agree with Dylan's sense of things, but I'll also note that Jay is looking awfully beleaguered... And kinda beclowning himself, so some of it is good fun:

13. Bryson vs. Brooks will continue, just not so overtly.

There was a notion that this fall’s Match between Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka would put the whole thing to bed. And maybe it did in like, a branding sense. But a close watch of the proceedings suggests that nothing actually got resolved. These two didn’t really communicate in any meaningful way. They certainly didn’t connect. With Koepka’s continued surliness and DeChambeau’s expanded influencer/vlogger/Long Drive status, their gap in personalities only seems to be getting wider. As a result I don’t think we’ll get any Mich Ultra ads on the subject — but there’s going to be spiciness nonetheless. Especially if we finally get the tournament pairing in contention we’ve been wishing for.

Yeah, we know.  They don't like each other and their both correct in that opinion.  But it's not like either of them had a great so the better bit would be to predict how they'll perform at their actual day job.

Dylan does have some actual predictions, a few of which are bold.  Not this one particularly:

7. Patrick Cantlay is going to win a major championship

We haven’t seen Cantlay play a round of stroke-play golf since the Tour Championship, and he hasn’t finished better than T15 in any of his last nine majors, but we’re assuming he has been doing a little practicing and is otherwise the same stone-cold killer that showed up in the playoffs and Ryder Cup. As such, I like his chances to bag a big one more than anybody else on Tour this year.

I'm still trying to decide how good I think Patrick is, but he is very much on the clock as far as majors are concerned.

Now, here's where Dylan gets edgier:

18. Someone’s going to win the Career Grand Slam.

Only five pros have done it: Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Gene Sarazen. But a few more are close, and this is the year. Maybe it will be Rory McIlroy at Augusta National. The idea of Jordan Spieth winning at Southern Hills sounds plausible. Phil Mickelson winning the U.S. Open at Brookline seems only marginally more likely than Koepka winning both the Masters and the Open Championship, or Morikawa winning the Masters and the U.S. Open. Maybe J.T. will win three of ’em. Maybe Schauffele will do ’em all in one year. One way or another, it’s happening.

OK, if we're picking a guy to reel off three of them, I'd go with Rahmbo way ahead of JT.... But Rory at Augusta?  Heh, that's a good one, but I just hope Rory is sufficiently in control to not try the ripped shirt look at Augusta.

As an aside, even Dylan seems to agree with my point above:

20. By year’s end, the top three players in the world will be Europeans.

While we’re buying Hovland stock, let’s unleash a proper prediction: At the end of the year, despite the grousing about a Ryder Cup blowout and American dominance, the OWGR will look like this:

1. Jon Rahm

2. Viktor Hovland

3. Rory McIlroy

Plot twist: There won’t be another Euro inside the top 20. Still, that elite squad will fly the flag for the continent. That’s pretty good, right?

I'll stipulate to the Spaniard, but I think he's a little out there on the other two.  But, per this related item, he's all-in on Viktor:

19. Viktor Hovland AND Matthew Wolff will have better seasons than Collin Morikawa.

What did we decide to call these guys again — the Big Three? The Little Three? The Young Three? Either way, Morikawa has jumped out to a seemingly insurmountable career lead, claiming two majors, four Tour wins, a European Tour title, Ryder Cup heroics and likely soon the title of World No. 1. It’s going to be impressive, then, to watch his compatriots battle back with some stellar play of their own. Matthew Wolff is decidedly back, and even if he plays a limited schedule of events I expect that he’ll contend as often as not and plow his way back towards the top 10 in the world.

Hovland finished 2021 better than anyone, winning in Mayakoba and the Bahamas in his final two starts, so all he has to do is more of [gestures vaguely] that.

This isn’t me hating on Morikawa, who is obviously a terrific player and owns the most important and durable of all golf skills: elite iron play. But as they tiptoe towards their mid-20s the back-and-forth between the Three Musketeers will continue.

This will be good fun, one assumes.  But I'll make a similar prediction , to wit, that Morikawa secures his Career Grand Slam before Rory AND Jordan.

At Golfweek Larry Bonahan has his own predictions, though he's not as PGA-centric as Dylan.  Here, though, the two are in agreement:

Norman, Saudi tour will fall apart

Listen, the PGA Tour is far from perfect, and the proposed Saudi tour addresses the issue of the best players in the world not getting together enough on the PGA Tour. But the backlash against Saudi Arabian human rights issues as well as the PGA Tour slowly bending over backward to undermine the Saudi tour should be enough for that proposal to disappear by the middle of the year. At least for now.

Hmmmm, predicting the Shark to fail, eh?  You must be the kind of guy that thinks the sun rises in the East?

Of course, there are these two differing thoughts, first Larry:

Tiger will play in 2022 British Open

We don’t know for sure yet when Woods will play competitive golf coming off the injuries from his serious car accident. The Masters might be a logical target, but you have to know that the British Open at St. Andrews, where Woods won the Claret jug in 2000 and 2005, is a definite start on his list.

Whereas Dylan was a wee bit bolder:

22. Tiger Woods will win the Open Championship.

We’re done doubting this guy.

Yeah, I'm mostly done caring about the guy.... 

PGA Tour, LPGA will announce a mixed-team event

Okay, it might not be played in 2022, but this has been simmering too long not to happen. I can suggest many courses in the Coachella Valley that could host an early December event, by the way.

Ort, yanno, wait for the Prez Cup to lay another egg and make that a mixed event.  Yeah, it makes far too much sense for it to ever happen....

Golf Digest doesn't seem to have a comparable set of predictions, though they do have this on dates to circle on our calendars, most interestingly this one:

Feb. 3-6: Saudi International

In any other year, the Saudi event—which was formerly a part of the DP World Tour (which was formerly the European Tour)—was merely a curiosity to American fans, mostly to see which PGA Tour players were drawn to the Middle East for sizeable appearance fees. This year, it seems far more compelling now that the talk of rival tours has heated up, and the PGA Tour has given permission to its players to jump on their private jets (and pad their bank accounts) in what is now an Asian Tour event. Among them is Phil Mickelson, who will miss Pebble Beach, where he’s won five times.

It just so happens that there's news on that front, courtesy of Geoff.  First, the rebranding:

After intense, last-minute negotiations, the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia has been named title sponsor of the Saudi International. Terms of the deal were not announced.

This means the full tournament name is the Public Investment Fund Saudi International Powered by SoftBank Investment Advisors, or, as they might want to call it around the LIV Golf team’s Slack: PIFSIPSIA.

Those Saudis continue their unrelenting effort to grow our game, so good on them.

It also so happens that touring professionals like this guaranteed money thing:

More alarming for the PGA Tour and European Tour should be the continued addition of players to February’s field. Besides now having commitments from five of the world top 10, they’ve added Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Matthew Wolff, Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman and Lucas Herbert. The allure of the Asian Tour!

Didn't they used to play around that time on the Monterrey Peninsula?  That field will be historically weak, no?  

2022 In Gear - Geoff has some good fun with this, which serves mostly as marker for what comes next.  For reasons unknown to your humble blogger, Cally and TaylorMade introduced their new clubs on the same day.

For TaylorMade, it's all about the carbonwood:

Details on Cally's new drivers can be found here, though the more detailed promises seem to relate to their new line of Chrome Softs:

So, Callaway listened. Without changing the spin profile at all, Callaway was able to increase
driver ball speed by 0.7 mph due to the new core in the 2022 version.

According to Callaway, the new Chrome Soft X LS increases driver speed by 0.8 mph, reduces driver spin by 130 rpm, and reduces iron spin by 120 rpm compared to the previous version.

 

Amusingly, they spend a lot of effort assuring us that they'll no longer manufacture their balls with those pesky off-center cores:

Callaway’s Chrome Soft, Chrome Soft X and Chrome Soft X LS golf balls are not only getting X-rayed for centeredness of their cores, but every layer inside the golf balls is getting the same precision treatment.

It won’t surprise you to hear that the core of a golf ball should be directly in the center. If the core is leaning one way or the other within the golf ball, it can affect important parameters such as spin, distance and direction.

Most modern golf balls, though, have more than just a core and a cover; they have multiple layers. According to a recent study by Callaway, it’s not just off-center cores that can cause problems in performance. Apparently, if the other mantle layers are off-center, there can also be drastic negative effects.

The study showed that an off-center inner and outer mantle layer can cause a difference of 2.7 mph in ball speed, 2.1 degrees of launch angle, 1200 rpm of spin, 4.8 yards of distance and 16.7 yards of dispersion. To be clear, that was using the same exact golf ball, under the same hitting conditions, simply hit at different orientations.

Now they tell us....

But the gist of Geoff's point, very much one to keep in mid, is that these guys want to have it both ways, as captured in this two sentence 'graph:

Traditionally when any form of rulemaking is discussed to keep certain skills and courses relevant, the manufacturers claim they’ve maxed out the technology. When they want your $600, the technology is breakthrough, stealth, AI infused and almost guaranteed to add distance and lower spin.

Exactly.

On that note, I shall leave you and get on with my ski season.... See you later this week. 

Monday, January 3, 2022

Weekend Wrap

Just a few items to get our muscles moving again in the New year.  Nothing too strenuous, as it's a rich full day here getting prepared to head West tomorrow.  We'll prep for Kapalua once I get myself settled in the Wasatch.

Mostly we'll riff off the latest Tour Confidential panel, which is all 2022-centric.  Though our lede will come from this optimistic take:

11 reasons why golf (for the pros and you!) will be even BETTER in 2022

Anyone want to guess where they started?  Anyone?  Bueller?  Yeah, it's a shock:

Tiger on the Prowl. Again

As sweet as it was to watch him in a heart-warming hit-and-giggle, sentimentality only goes so far. What we’re looking for this year is the raw excitement of Woods returning to elite competition. If that strikes you as an unrealistic prospect, you’re forgetting all the ways he has surprised us before.

At least he leaves it hypothetical, as that TC panel gets alarmingly granular:

6. From what you saw and heard from Tiger Woods at the PNC Championship in December, do you think we’ll see him make four or more PGA Tour (or major) starts in 2022, between one and three, or none?

Bastable: I think the 1-3 range sounds right. The big question mark is when and if he can walk 18 holes four (or more) days in a row. That level of recovery feels like it could be six months off.
Maybe even another year. Who knows. I’d be surprised if we see Woods make a start before the Open Championship. The lure of the Old Course will be strong for Tiger, not only because of his record there but also because (in good conditions) it’s the most walkable of all the major venues.

Zak: I think four or more is totally reasonable. But none before March. Once Tiger gets his legs under him, once a month seems viable to me.

Sens: Augusta and St. Andrews. Beyond that, no guarantees.

Melton: Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see him playing in ANY of the majors. Like Basty said, we don’t even know if he can walk 72 holes in four days. The PNC was nice, but the road to a full(ish) recovery is longer than most want to admit.

Piastowski: Between one and three — he’ll play the Open Championship, the PNC and maybe one more. The swing is good to go. But the legs (and the back) need more time, it looks like. Tiger won’t enter a tournament just to enter a tournament. He’ll play to win, and I think it’ll be a while before he feels comfortable doing that more than a handful of times a year.

Bamberger: I agree with Nick. Augusta is a very difficult walking course. The Old Course in July if the weather is good — you could imagine that. And he can shoot something in the low 70s there just on guile and experience alone. Asking for more than that is asking too much.

Mike, have you ever previously agreed with Nick on anything?

My clever (ED: We'll be the judge of that) quip to Employee No. 2, upon hearing that Tiger was playing the Father-Son, was to speculate that his next subsequent start would be the 2022 Father-Son.   Like many, I was blown away by how close to Tour-ready his game looked, but the man seemed a long way away from being able to walk a golf course, not to speak of doing that day after day.

I think these gents are over-the-top optimistic, though I's like to be at a poker table with Sean ("None before March") Zak, because he clearly has only the loosest connection to reality.

So, why else will golf be better in 2022?  Maybe because that back-ordered driver will show up?

For the big boys and girls there is this little birthday:

Another Open at the Old Course

No big deal. Just an epic milestone for the game’s oldest major, staged at the granddaddy of all venues. Postponed for a year by the pandemic, this will be the 150th playing of the Open Championship, and the 30th turn as host for the Old Course at St. Andrews. Past winners here include Bobby Jones, Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods. Suffice to say, we’ll be tuning in.

Of course, we can only assume it will be played, pending analysis of the R&A's business interruption rider.

 I also agree with this, though this is the Tour that can't shoot straight:

Whoa, Nelly! And Other Sources of Excitement in the Women’s Game

Fresh off a season marked by a gold medal, a major and a rise to the top spot in the Rolex rankings, Nelly Korda shows no signs of slowing. Throw in the Kos (Lydia and Jin Young; with no relation aside from their talent), plus the likes of Danielle Kang, Lexi Thompson and others, all vying for pumped up purses under new LPGA commissioner Mollie Marcoux Samaan, and the LPGA has rarely been in a stronger place.

The spit take there is the gratuitous Lexi reference.  As an aside, props to employee No. 2 who, with the Jets seemingly in control yesterday, opined that they would still find a way to blow it.  Notable because it reminded me of my own thoughts when Lexi had that 5-shot lead after eight holes on Sunday at the U.S. Open.  To be fair, Danielle Kang doesn't have the street cred of Lexi in imaginatively coughing up titles, but I'm quite sure she'd like the last couple of years back.

But, how will golf be better for we civilians?

Scrapped Trips, Rescheduled

Golf is a global game but let’s face it: 2021 was not the best for seeing what the world has to offer. Here’s hoping for a year in which we get those getaways back on the books.

Really not comfortable saying that out loud.... feels like we're tempting the gods.  But we just so happen to have such a thing on our August dance card....

This piece is unintentionally hysterical because it's like the annoying guy at the party that says, "But enough about me, what do you think of me?"  The header promises to share why golf will be better for all of us, but the only "us" that Josh Sens is aware of are those contemplating the big boys:

A Flood of Live-Stream Coverage

So apparently $6.99 doesn’t buy a lot in the pro shop. But in 2022, it can be spent in other ways. That’s the price per month for viewers of vastly expanded tournament coverage arising from a new live streaming deal between the PGA Tour and ESPN+. Under the arrangement, the total number of coverage hours will more than triple, with live streams of featured groups and marquee holes to complement the main broadcast feed.

If your life has a void at 8:00 a.m. on Thursday mornings, Jay's got you covered.  Who else will be watching remains a mystery...

Shall we get back to the TC gang?

1. After so many wild and wonderful golf happenings in 2021 — Phil Mickelson winning a major at 50, Tiger Woods playing golf at a high level again after a horrific car accident, Bryson and Brooks hugging it out at the Ryder Cup — the mind reels at what 2022 holds in store. Give us one truly bold prediction for this year, something no fan could see coming.

Tiger speaking to the media?  Patrick acknowledging editorial control of the UseGolfFacts Twitter account?   Nick Faldo making an astute observation about the game of golf?  See how easy this game is?

Alan Bastable: Louis Oosthuizen will win two majors. No need to even play the Open at St. Andrews — Louis will be automatic on Ye Olde Course. He’ll also win at either The Country Club or Southern Hills, a pair of designs that set up well for ball-strikers who can putt.

Hard to argue that the man isn't a closer.... Color me a skeptic but, despite Alan's strong case, I'm thinking we should go ahead and play the Open anyway.

 Mike seems to agree with Alan:

Michael Bamberger: That’s not bold. That’s obvious. Hence his nickname, King Louis.

Yanno, Mike, by now that's pretty heavily tinged with irony.  But, more importantly, Mike is the one guy involved whose predictions I'd actually want to hear.

Sean Zak: The Internationals win the Presidents Cup for the first time in more than 20 years. They damn near did it in 2019. Host-site Quail Hollow has been kind to some of their best players, too (Hideki, Louis, Abe). But the real secret ingredient to beating the Americans will be creating a team of common countrymen. In 2019, Els sent out 12 guys from nine countries. This year’s team will pair Mexico’s Abe Ancer with Carlos Ortiz. Korea’s Sungjae Im with Ben An. Hideki will finally be joined by another Japanese player in Takumi Kanaya. Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira will hold things down for Chile. Trevor Immelman will no doubt bring another South African along to play with Louis Oosthuizen. And then there are the Aussies. It could be a phenomenal week in North Carolina.

That seems appropriate.  Not only does the team presumably include the aforementioned King Louis, but both parties are holding steady at just the one victory.

Josh Sens: Jon Rahm wins the Grand Slam. Check out last year’s results. T5 at the Masters; T8 at the PGA; a win at the U.S. Open; T3 at the British. A few strokes shaved here and there, and he gets it done.

That's a bit much for my taste, and it's hard to imagine that a couple of those (SH and The Country Club) set up all that well for the Spaniard.  But he was the best player on the planet last year, so why not? 

But one needs to be judicious in the choice of adjectives, because a Ramnbo Slam seemes inevitable compared to this:

Zephyr Melton: Phil (finally) wins the U.S. Open and retires from pro golf on the 18th green, riding off into the sunset with the career grand slam in hand.

Nick Piastowski: All great predictions. Let’s continue the oldie-but-goodie theme and say that Bernhard Langer flirts with Phil’s oldest-to-win-a-major mark, doing so at either the Masters or the Open Championship (if he qualifies).

But, wait, Mikey Bams does circle back and throw us a bone, and it's better than betting on geezers for sure: 

Bamberger: Greg Norman becomes the Deputy Commissioner of the PGA Tour in charge of its newest division, Global Golf International.

My only concern is with the degree of difficulty score.  Because betting on Norman to sell out is like betting on Lucy to pull the football away...As this last guy notes:

Bastable: That’s not bold. That’s obvious. Hence his nickname, The Shark.

Sharks actually eat what they kill, which is a whole lot more admirable than a bottom feeder such as our Shirtless Shark.  Sharks also don't, at least in my experience, attest to the morality of depraved genocidal governments, but maybe that's splitting hairs...

2. The 2021-22 PGA Tour and 2022 LPGA Players of the Year will be _________ and _________, respectively. Please explain your answers!

Bastable: Justin Thomas and Jin Young Ko. JT’s game has quietly been rounding back into form (four top-5s in his last six starts to close out the year), and I love that Jim Mackay is now on his bag. Bones was in a position to be picky about when/if he would return to looping. Clearly, he sees big upside in teaming up with Thomas. They’ll be a dangerous duo. As for Ko, yes, it’s a chalk pick, but how do you steer away from her after a five-win season? Also, that 63-straight greens-in-reg streak at the LPGA season finale still boggles the mind. Tough to short a player who is so staggeringly consistent.

JT actually needs to show a little something this year.  it's a category error on the men's side, because we really only care about those four majors. 

Zak: Brooks Koepka and Nelly Korda. BK promised us all just a month ago that he hasn’t peaked yet. “Just wait,” he said. I’m listening. And then for the ladies, no one makes it look easier than Nelly. I desperately want to see Yuka Saso make an even bigger splash next year. But the mind says another year of four wins for Ms. Korda.

Brooksie?  Egads, not over-interpreting those good nine holes against Bryson, are we?

Sens: Jon Rahm and Nelly Korda. Rahm opened the floodgates last year. He’ll keep pouring it on. I can’t argue with Sean on Korda. Even if my heart says Lydia Ko.

Bold picks!  Can you say chalk?  I thought you could... 

Melton: Jordan Spieth and Lydia Ko. 2022 is the year of the comeback kids.

Are we off our meds again, Zephyr? 

Bamberger: Dustin Johnson and JESSICA Korda. Johnson’s play at the Ryder Cup was a mere reminder of how good he is, when the pressure’s off. (The U.S. team was so good he didn’t have to do that much, except play as he is capable of playing.) The pressure’s off. Nobody is particularly expecting him to do anything. As for JK, sibling rivalry is a powerful thing, and sibling sharing is, too. It’s a family affair.

Don't much like either of those stabs.  DJ remains unrepentantly DJ, and Jess seems to have settled nicely into her role as kid-sister's cheerleader.

But the prize for dead-ending with a loser foes to: 

Piastowski: Viktor Hovland and Lexi Thompson. Like question one, I can’t argue with any of the above, and I’m adding these two partially for conversation sake. But Hovland continues his strong 2021, adds his first major (at the PGA, in his U.S. “home” of Oklahoma) and tacks on a couple more wins. And while the following may sound like something you’ve heard before, this is the year Lexi figures the short game issues that have plagued her.

Nick, you're a keeper.  That you think Lexi's problems reside in her short game is so delightfully naïve, but here's a little golf history for you...

" Golf is a game that is played on a five inch course, the distance between your ears" 
- Bobby Jones

If you're looking to fix Lexi, that's where you need to look.  As for that other pick, Viktor has some talent and he's certainly a likeable guy, but I'm not sure that short game is quite up to Top-5 standards.

This isn't a bad question, though you'd expect more from the responses:

3. Which player not currently in the top 100 of the OWGR has the best chance to be in the top 20 by this time next year?

Bastable: My heart says Jason Day; the game is better when he’s in the mix. But I fear despite a couple of flashes of hope in 2021 that he’s still in the wilderness. Instead, I’ll vouch for Danny Willett, another major winner who lost his way before rejoining the winner’s circle (at the Dunhill) in 2021. If Oosty doesn’t win the Open Championship (but he will, see above), Willett might.

Zak: It would have to be someone who wins multiple Tour events or is a mainstay in contention all season. Really trims the candidates. I’ll invest my hopes in Gary Woodland, your 2019 U.S. Open Champion who, at 37, still has some good golf ahead of him.

Sens: Matt Kuchar. At 43, he’s getting up there. But he’s still too good not to bounce back from 2021’s precipitous slump.

Melton: Sam Horsfield. Every time I talk with his coach, Sean Foley, he’s hyping up Horsfield to be the next big thing in pro golf. And after seeing how he’s changed his swing recently to protect against injuries, I’m buying his stock.

Piastowski: Harry Higgs. The fan favorite gets a breakthrough victory this year.

Bamberger: Lucas Glover. Still long. Great iron player. He goes as his short-putting goes, and his short putting is getting way better. (One of my favorites.)

I didn't see that leading to only retreads, as Sam Horsfield is the only youngish talent to be found in all those answers.  Not really interested in retreads such as Lucas or Kooch, or in guessing whether Jason Day can stay healthy for two consecutive weeks.

This one is curious:

4. As recently as a few months ago, at least one new elite professional tour seemed destined to become a reality in 2022. Now, that picture is less clear. In the next 12 months, will a legitimate PGA Tour rival officially come to fruition?

I don't think that's actually even true, as I for one have remained convinced that none of these initiatives would be implemented, and certainly skeptical about that specific time frame, given that they have yet to sign their first actual player (although they apparently had Phil at hello).

Bastable: Gosh, with the frequency at which Greg Norman-helmed LIV Golf has been loading up its C-suite, it’s hard to figure they’re not getting close to a big announcement. Then again, we all thought that news was coming three months ago. Did LIV’s would-be signees get cold feet, or did all the new money the PGA Tour is throwing at its top players convince those stars to stay put? Both explanations seem plausible. By the second half of ’22, I think we’ll see a stripped-down version of what LIV had wanted to launch, with fewer events and fewer notable players.

Zak: Yes, it’ll happen. We’ll see many elite Tour players fly across the world for the Saudi International in early February. The Tour’s reaction to player requests might be a good sign of things to come, too. Big money, elsewhere … play it if you’d like … these are your member-privilege consequences.

Sens: Events will happen. Big names will play. But not as many as we might once have believed. And not to the point where the events will come off as the existential threat to the Tour that they originally seemed to be.

Melton: I hope so. Competition breeds innovation, and I’d love to see some shake-ups to the structures of pro golf. Do we really need ~45 weeks of the year to be filled with the same 72-hole, stroke-play formats? I’d love to see some variety.

Bamberger: I agree, Dr. Z. Competition would be good for the PGA Tour. A big hit of creativity would be, too. But I don’t see a league starting in ’22. The mindset of the golfer is too pondering and careful.

Piastowski: Yes, and I think we’ll get an announcement from the Norman LIV Golf tour in the first week of February, during the Saudi International. Some of golf’s biggest names will already be there, some (all?) of them will likely be part of the deal, and it’s the week before the Super Bowl, so the news cycle will be dry. What it all looks like is hard to say. Does it go head to head with the PGA Tour? Does it run a fall schedule, which is after the majors, but competing with football. All good questions, and I think we’ll learn the answers in about a month.

Unfortunately, competition (really, the threat thereof) is pretty much leading to anything but innovation, at least as far as the actual product is involved.  I do think the big story here is Jay Monahan's reaction to the threat, and my prediction is that those steps will ultimately lead to Jay's demise.  That and that fact that separating your fans from their money and encouraging them to behave badly in public demonstrate a profound contempt for the actual game of which he is a steward.

Good luck here:

5. Now that USGA CEO Mike Whan has had several months to get acclimated to his new role, what would you like see him make his top action point in his first full calendar year on the job?

Bastable: It’s hard to figure that a big distance announcement isn’t forthcoming in 2022, in terms of some kind of modification at the elite levels of the game. The Distance Insights movement, of course, long predates Whan’s tenure, but he seems on board with measures to dial back the big boys. He’s on record saying he’s not afraid of bifurcation and that “some degree of reining in” wouldn’t be a bad thing. My guess is Whan has already spent many hours analyzing the topic and discussing with key stakeholders. A local rule on distance is surely coming soon.

I'm not quite as sure, though I'm also a little uncomfortable with the abdication aspect of this.   

Zak: Make it all make sense. Make all the rules changes make sense. Make it make sense to me, and to Phil Mickelson, and to my father, who plays twice a year but watches most Sundays. Make the greens book changes feel like they were obvious. Give us plain, clear reasons why Bryson’s caddie measuring the slopes of the 14th hole during a Tuesday practice round in Jacksonville doesn’t align with the purity of the game created in Scotland. Same for distance control and how far the golf ball flies due to technology. I think the reasoning is somewhat understood, but the announcements have become controversial enough that it’s still not quite hitting home in the way it should.

Sens: Admirable goals above. Meantime, though, I’ll go with something within easier reach: Strictly enforce a shot clock. Pick up the pace.

Melton: Give us a clear picture of what the U.S. Open rota will look like. We know Pinehurst and Oakmont will be heavily featured, and I’m curious where else the national championship will stake its roots.

Add Pebble and Shinny, rinse and repeat.  The wild card might only be where they stand with Merion and The Country Club, which I think they probably should move on from unless they're seriously going to take action on distance.  

Piastowski: Set a deadline for the distance decisions. Talk about a bold move in year one, but it’s time to move on from this.

The deadline was actually 2005, how are they doing? 

Bamberger: Recognize that the elite game and the regular-joe game are different. Create a MUCH simpler handicap system. (Write down your scores. You can’t make worse than a triple bogey on a hole.) A stroke, not distance, penalty for lost balls and OB balls. A slower ball for them. A WAY faster game for us. Preach ready golf and proceed to your ball.

I agree they mad the handicap system way overly-complicated, it's just that it doesn't matter all that much.  They certainly do seem like they're embracing Mike's first point, though that's not without peril, as each local authority might take a different position on their proposed model local rules.

 Maybe one more?  I thought this slightly interesting:

Updated: Our list of the best 8 players without a major

You want category errors?  Got you covered.... I'm just going to excerpt the full list, and you can click through if you're so inclined.  

8. Paul Casey

7. Patrick Cantlay

6. Tony Finau

5. Matt Kuchar

4. Tommy Fleetwood

3: Lee Westwood

2. Rickie Fowler

1. Xander Schauffele

Are you done laughing yet?  Imean, Kooch?  That's a good one, though Tommy-Lad and Rickie are almost as comical.  He just obviously can't decide if good means right-now good (X-Man and Patrick) or lifetime body of work good (Kooch, maybe, and Rickie, meh).

Obviously the two names of interest are Xander and Cantlay, both of whom are officially due.  Some might add Finau, though he's struggled to win anything.  That puts those guys under a bit more pressure when we get to major season, so stay tuned.

As for ranking Kooch above Cantlay?  Hey, comedy gold.

I shall leave you there and catch up from later in the week from Utah.