My family obligations were pushed to the afternoon, so let's have at it... A warning though, a brief review of my open tabs hints that this will be a high-snark post. Carpe diem.
Wither Golf or, More Accurately, Wither Tiger - I get it, Tiger will peg it Thursday at Torrey, and all impulse control capabilities mysteriously vanish. First, the lede question from yesterday's
Tour Confidential panel:
Tiger Woods will make his 2020 PGA Tour debut this week at the Farmers Insurance Open, at Torrey Pines. Woods had an up-and-down-and-up 2019, winning the Masters, then cooling off for much of the season, before a fall surge saw him win the Zozo Championship in Japan and put on a ball-striking clinic during a 3-0 run at the Presidents Cup. Woods is now ranked 7th in the world. Will he finish the 2020 Tour season higher or lower in the world ranking? And why?
Sean Zak: I think Tiger progresses in 2020. The more we learn about 2019, the more it seems like his body wasn’t totally right during the summer. If he’s all there, it’s fair to
expect more consistent play all year. No post-Masters lull; actual contention at another major. Kinda like 2018, but with another win.
Josh Sens: If he stays healthy, plays all the majors and cherry picks his traditional favorites, I think we’ll see him creep another spot or two higher. None of which will really matter in our Tiger-watch. We’re watching for the majors, and I believe he’ll get another of those.
Michael Bamberger: I don’t think Tiger had an up-and-down year. I think that’s what his golf is going to be like now. He’ll contend far less often, and he’ll win far less often, but he has shown he can still win when the moon and stars align. Point being, there’s not much upside, but if he can stay in the top 20, that’s a great accomplishment and that could include a win.
Dylan Dethier: What Tiger has working against him is a limited schedule — he may play just a dozen times — but what he has going for him is that he remains among the most consistent performers in the world. I’d say he ends the year as World No. 5.
It's getting a bit tedious, no? We have no clue as to the state of his body, without which predictions are pretty worthless. The follow up is slightly more interesting, due mostly to its limited scope:
This time last year most of you esteemed pundits were saying that Woods would likely have a nice week at Torrey, but none of you picked him to win. Said Dethier of Woods’ odds, “I think Tiger belongs somewhere behind Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy, but not like — way behind.” How about this year? Given his hot play at the end of 2019, should Tiger be the favorite to win at Torrey?
Sens: Given Tiger’s recent form, and his history at Torrey, I’d tweak Dethier’s prediction from last year and say he belongs right about in the same odds as any of those guys.
Zak: Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win any event he plays, and rightfully so. When he’s playing (like this week), Justin Thomas is next. I’ll put Tiger right behind both of them, so he’s among the favorites, but not THE favorite.
Dethier: Solid analysis, Dethier! I think that was true at the time but he’s crept up a bit. Zak’s right.
Bamberger: If the rough is anything like it was last year, I’d put his chances to win at close to zero. If he plays through a cold fog, lower yet.
The difference is somewhat interesting. Last year we had the high of the Tour Championship, followed by the dispiriting Ryder Cup (and a long layoff). Here he finished quite strong, excluding that Saturday no mas in Melbourne. But, as per William Goldman, nobody knows anything.
1. Did the end of 2019 set expectations too high for 2020?
Bob Harig: No doubt. But it's understandable. Expectations were extremely low after the summer, when Woods seemed like a guy who had sold his soul to win the Masters. The poor form, the bad back, a withdrawal due to an oblique injury. Woods never looked right. And then he had knee surgery, which suggested he'd have even more issues with his game. And yet, that unlocked all of the issues. Woods, after a shaky start, won in Japan. He played well enough to win in the Bahamas. And he was the best player at the Presidents Cup. It's hard not to think everything is moving in the right direction as 2020 begins for him.
But there is that small matter of Saturday, no? So when you say "Everything" is moving in the right direction?
Michael Collins: Didn't matter. Let's be honest, even if Woods had finished last at Zozo and gone 0-3 at the Presidents Cup, all everyone would do is make excuses for why those didn't matter and "blah blah blah" is why Tiger is going to shatter 2019. It's Tiger Woods -- when do all of us not overreact? Or does everyone forget "experts" picking him to win the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla after back surgery and a WD at the Bridgestone Invitational two weeks earlier?
Except, Mike, if he had finished last at the ZoZo he probably wouldn't have played at the Prez Cup....
Ian O'Connor: I don't think so. I think most people realize that Woods will never again dominate like he did in his prime, and that he will remain an opportunist for the rest of his career, picking off a win here and there. I do believe Woods will be the favorite at the Masters, as he should be. As the defending champ whose body should still be fresh in April, Woods will be more dangerous at Augusta than anyone.
Mark Schlabach: Expectations are going to be through the roof, no doubt about it, after he made such a miraculous turnaround at the end of 2019. But we can't forget how bad he looked at the PGA Championship and The Open, followed by the WD at the Northern Trust. Was it all because of the knee injury? Did the Masters really take that much out of him? Can he continue to flip a switch on and off?
Nick Pietruszkiewicz: This might be perhaps the one and only time I ever type these words: I agree with Michael. We live in a world of extremes when it comes to Woods. He plays well, and the shouts start about multiple victories and catching Jack Nicklaus' 18 majors before the year is out. He plays poorly, and the cries start that he's done, his career is over. So Zozo and the Presidents Cup will make the expectations unreasonable. That just how it goes. When it comes to Woods, we're never reasonable with expectations -- good or bad.
What do you mean by "we"? Some of us have been preaching caution all along...
Having waved that yellow caution flag, they now immediately forget all caution:
2. How many times does Tiger win in 2020?
Harig: So much depends on his health. The Tiger at the end of 2020 can contend anywhere. The Tiger of the summer can't win at all. Throw in the fact that he plays a lot of tough golf courses with strong fields and it makes winning all the more difficult. I'm going with two victories, but certainly would not be surprised if it is more.
Collins: A healthy Woods will win three times, including The Open at Royal St. George's. He'll also win a WGC event and a playoff event. Now if Woods has any health setbacks, well, then all bets are off. My hope is that those three wins are in fewer than 10 starts because that is what will keep him healthy.
O'Connor: I'll say twice, with a few near-misses mixed in. Woods looked really healthy in Japan and in Australia at the end of the year, which should scare all those young guns who said they wanted to compete against an able Tiger and maybe should've been more careful with what they were wishing for.
Schlabach: I think he'll win at least one, maybe two. Again, I want to see how his health holds up over the course of a long season before making any bold predictions. He's going to continue to pick and choose his starts, which is smart. He looked unflappable at Augusta last April, and then everything seemed to fall apart for months. At 44, and given his health history, you just never know when things can take a turn for the worse.
Pietruszkiewicz: What did I just say about being unreasonable? I tend to not take my own advice, don't listen to my own calls for caution. Yeah, I'm guilty after watching how much control he had of his body and game at Zozo and the Presidents Cup, so ... I say four wins. I think one comes before the Masters, too. Woods gets No. 83, to pass Sam Snead for the all-time record, before heading to Augusta to defend his green jacket.
Nick, you ignorant slut. He'll play maybe eight times max, and you're expecting him to win half of those? Life must be a constant disappointment to you....By the way, Michael, which WGC's will Tiger actually play?
3. Does he win a major?
Harig: I like Woods a lot at Royal St. George's, with an outside chance at TPC Harding Park in the PGA Championship. Of course he could defend his Masters victory, but I like The Open better for the reasons he showed in playing Royal Melbourne so well. A links course doesn't require length as much as strategy, and Woods was so good in navigating that type of layout in Australia. And he has all the shots required for the various types of approaches that can be played. He missed a playoff by two shots at Royal St. George's in 2003 after opening the tournament with a triple-bogey. He's also won at Harding Park, but how sharp will he be after an inevitable Masters cooldown?
Collins: The Open at Royal St. George's. And that's actually going to stink. Why? Because next year is the 150th at St. Andrews! This year he gets to put his name on the trophy with
Ben Curtis -- everyone do the sarcastic
Bubba Watson "yeah" eye roll.
O'Connor: Yeah, the Masters. If Woods never gets to 18 majors, at least he would have tied Nicklaus with six green jackets. The PGA is going to be the toughest one for him to win going forward. As we saw at Bethpage last year, the revamped and cramped majors schedule makes it tough for Woods to recover physically and emotionally from Augusta in time to contend at the PGA.
Schlabach: I think he'll be the favorite at the Masters and will be right back in the hunt for a sixth green jacket. I agree with Ian that the condensed majors schedule will make it more difficult for Woods to win a fifth PGA title (and first in 13 years), but he has a good track record at TPC Harding Park, where he won a WGC event in 2005, taking down John Daly in a playoff. He also went 5-0 in match play there at the 2009 Presidents Cup. He hasn't had a lot of success at Winged Foot, so his next-best chance for another major championship is probably at Royal St. George's. He tied for fourth in his only Open appearance there in 2003.
Pietruszkiewicz: I said two last year. He got one. I am sooooo tempted to say two again this year. What I didn't factor into last year's equation was the weather -- it wasn't warm in May at Bethpage Black, it wasn't warm in June at Pebble Beach, it wasn't warm in July at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. So I am scared a bit by that, given that the PGA is in San Francisco in May, which doesn't exactly scream tropical, and who knows what the weather will be like at The Open. This is a long way of saying Woods will win one. I don't think it'll be the Masters. I think we might be asking too much for him to go back to Augusta and defend. He's done some things in his career only he can do. I'm not sure, at age 44, that repeating at Augusta is something I'm willing to predict. But he'll get one somewhere else. I'll say either the U.S. Open at Winged Foot or The Open at Royal St. George's -- if the weather cooperates.
Wow, it wasn't warm at Portrush? I mean, really, who but Nostradamus coulda seen that coming? Or at Pebble with its famous marine layers? So, you're telling us you're not very good at your job, so why should we care about your 2020 predictions?
I guess we should finish with these guys?
4. When and where will victory No. 83 happen?
Harig: A perfect place would be Riviera next month. It is where he has played the most without a victory. It is where he played in his first PGA Tour event, as a 16-year-old in 1992. And it is where his legacy will endure as the event -- now called the Genesis Invitational -- is run by his foundation and has elevated status, much like the tournaments for
Arnold Palmer and Nicklaus.
Collins: WGC-Mexico Championship late in February. Woods tied Snead in Japan, so it just seems fitting that he breaks the record in Mexico. The fact that it's a small field and a good course for him shouldn't take away from how big this will be.
O'Connor: Augusta. If anything could be sweeter than winning major title No. 15 last year after an 11-year drought, winning No. 16 to go back-to-back at the Masters -- and breaking Snead's record in the process -- might do the trick.
Schlabach: Augusta. It wouldn't be as dramatic as last year's win, after such a long drought, but it would be more than fitting.
Pietruszkiewicz: That conversation we had about expectations? How about we rachet them up even more? He gets No. 83 in his first start of 2020 and wins this weekend at Torrey Pines. Think that'll have us all thinking he's going to win 10 times and grab multiple majors? Again, I'm a victim of the influence of the end of 2019. I admit it. He looked so, so comfortable playing golf in those two events. If that guy shows up at Torrey Pines -- not rusty or tired or with a mysterious ailment he hasn't told anyone about -- we might get this conversation about No. 83 out of the way in a hurry.
Riv might be perfect, but did you look at his record on that track? Will he play Mexico?
But this week? Hard for me to see him even trying all that hard... I know he always grinds, but he doesn't want to be sharp enough to win just yet? Way too early...
Now we get to that which profiles as the most interesting issue:
5. Will he make the U.S. Olympic team?
Harig: It won't be easy, and this is where Woods' personal goals really come into play. If he really wants to be in Tokyo, then I believe he will make it. He will have between nine and 11 events that he is looking to play between now and the cutoff on June 22, after the U.S. Open. He needs to be among the top four Americans in the world. He is ranked sixth, but four Americans are ahead of him: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay. He's got Xander Schauffele right behind him, and Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland and Tony Finau could all be a factor. The competition is going to be fierce, and he can't have many off weeks. A win would certainly help, but several top-five finishes are going to be the minimum in order for Woods to have a chance.
Collins: The Olympics will find a way to have the biggest star in the sport play on the biggest stage in sports, even if organizers have to let him play under his own flag by declaring his property in Jupiter, Florida, its own independent nation. Here's something to give yourself a headache about: Woods doesn't make the team initially. A Presidents Cup captain's pick is one spot ahead. Should he give up his spot?
O'Connor: Money in the bank. Woods, at 44, knows this is probably his one-and-done chance to win an Olympic medal, and I see no chance he allows himself to fail to qualify. Seeing him on the gold medal stand, with the national anthem playing, would be a hell of a thing.
Schlabach: Given that he's contending against Koepka, JT, DJ and Cantlay, the American team is the most difficult Olympic squad to make. Four Americans will make the Olympics if they're ranked inside the top 15 in the world. Even with everything that Woods has accomplished, he called representing the U.S. in the Olympics a bucket-item list. It's going to be difficult, but I'm guessing he finds a way to get it done.
Pietruszkiewicz: He's going to make the team. He's going to carry the flag during the opening ceremony. He's going to win the gold medal.
Anything OWGR driven is a tough sell for me, because he'll play so infrequently. I'm thinking he'll need to do something special at Augusta, not necessarily a win, but he better rack up some points.
Michael hints where we're headed, a
Karen Crouse article on this subject... Of course it's Pravda, where they can't even settle on a single vagina for President, so there's no shortage of howlers:
It may comfort Woods that in the post-World War II era, two United States Olympians, the sailors Paul Smart in 1948 and Everard Endt in 1952, have won gold medals in their 50s. So it’s not necessarily now or never for him. But for an Olympic movement ravaged by the cancers of corruption and cheating, and reeling from the retirements of Bolt and Phelps, there would be no time like the present to plug into Woods’s transcendence.
What, Karen, no curlers that won in their sixties? Tiger's body breaks down very hour-and-a-half, but no urgency.... But it's that last bit that might be the funniest... Golf is going to fix the broken, corrupt Olympics.... Yanno, I'm old enough to remember when we warned folks about lying down with dogs...
Here's the gist of her case:
At the 2004 Australian swimming trials, the superstar Ian Thorpe, the world-record
holder and reigning Olympic champion in the 400-meter freestyle, was disqualified from his heat for a false start after he lost his balance on the blocks and fell into the water. The top two finishers in the final qualified for the Athens Games, and scores of Australians soon were publicly calling on Craig Stevens, the runner-up, to relinquish his spot to Thorpe.
There was no danger that Stevens or Thorpe would miss the Games; both had qualified in other events. But a month later, during a televised interview for which he was paid a six-figure sum, Stevens announced that he was ceding his spot in the 400 freestyle to Thorpe, who went on to successfully defend his Olympic title.
For the moment, Woods still controls his fate. After his victory last year at the Masters, he described the Olympics as “a big goal,” but he admitted “getting there and making the team is going to be the tough part.”
Wow, that's a whole lot of crazy wrapped up in three' graphs... She is suggesting that one of the four guys ahead of Tiger get paid off to cede the spot to him. Gee, under-the-table payments to control the outcome.... Admittedly, it's hard to think of anything more on-brand for the Olympics?
But, Karen, you obviously don't understand how this game is played. Tiger simply
needs to marry a Slovak girl (Oops, my bad, there's no reason it needs to be a girl. Any one of the 57 known genders will do).
As we sit here today, Rory Sabbatini is a mortal lock to be in Tokyo, but Tiger isn't. I mean, this is an idea so crazy it might just work, but is there a chance we could fix the dreadful format? I know this is crazy talk, but a tournament without the best players in the world kinda sucks. Maybe we should stop pretending that it's something special, because that denies us the will to fix it.
And that last graph is curious as well....In what sense does Tiger control what the players ahead and behind him in the OWGR do?
This seems perfectly on brand as well:
The Idiot's Guide to 2020 Golf
Sorry, Alex, Nick and Karen got there first....
There are just four UAE players ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking. Three of them are amateurs. They are all ranked 2,079th, the lowest ranking on the OWGR.
The single pro in the ranking, Ahmed Al Musharrekh, played nine times on the Meena Tour last season. He missed the cut in seven, was disqualified in another and finished T44 in the Al Ain Open. He earned $408 from that performance, the only money he made on the Meena Tour last year.
In case you think there are players coming through the amateur ranks who will soon take their place in the world order, think again. There are only two UAE players ranked on the World Amateur Golf Ranking. Ahmad Skaik holds the distinction as the UAE’s leading amateur at world number 3,230. Saif Thabet sits in 6,478th place.
Here's his close:
Many of the above names play this week. The Dubai Desert Classic is so well established it’s one of the longest running current events on the European circuit. It is held on the Majlis course at the Emirates Club, the first, and best, grass golf course in the Middle East. The UAE now boasts a plethora of good golf courses.
These courses might adhere to build it and they will come theory inasmuch as they are very busy, but they haven’t done much for the build it and they will breed notion. Clearly, the UAE hasn’t used these courses as the inspiration to nurture young UAE talent, or we wouldn’t have to scroll to the bottom of the Official World Golf Ranking list for a UAE entry.
Alistair, if you were sufficiently credulous to believe the Euro Tour's Grow the Game nonsense, there's some swamp land we should discuss.
Next up, an honest accounting of the tons of carbon released into the atmosphere from the effort to maintain these golf courses and the number of private jets carrying players and Tour officials there. Oh, and when we get to Saudi, how about an accounting of here their players are in the OWGR?
Copy And Paste - template Holes are one of the more misunderstood aspects of golf course design, with many considering them mere copies of famous golf holes. I've not previous noticed Desi Issacson's work at Golf.com, but he takes on this subject:
OK, let’s start from the beginning. What is a template hole and who came up with it?
Template holes all begin with Charles Blair Macdonald. Golf in America wouldn’t look
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| The Punchbowl at National Golf Links of America. |
anything like what it does today without the Chicago native. Macdonald took up golf while in college at
St. Andrews, and when he returned to the States he started to design Chicago Golf Club in Wheaton, Ill., in 1896, which would become the first 18-hole golf course in the United States.
While studying courses in the Isles, Macdonald found around 20 different “model” holes that he believed would be fun and playable for both the beginner and expert. He realized the best golf courses used a variety of these holes, which we now refer to as templates holes. On this inaugural design at Chicago Golf Club, Macdonald built many of the holes to resemble his favorite template holes from the British Isles, taking designs from well-known courses like St. Andrews, Prestwick and North Berwick.
It is important to point out that these are templates, not duplicates. But they are general ideas that, when fit into the surrounding, are some of the greatest holes in the world.
Actually, I don't think that is the beginning at all. The beginning is Macdonalds tour of the great course of the Old World, and his appreciation of the great golf holes he found there. Further, it was the analysis and articulation of the design merits of these holes that's the critical building block. I would argue that Macdonald's genius was in transferring timeless design principles to American golf courses that's worth celebrating.
What, for instance, is a Road Hole? Even when we're not on a Macdonald, Raynor or Banks course, we see Capes, Bottles and Shorts....
Let me give you two examples, and then encourage you to read the rest if the subject is of interest.
First, as you know, I play my home golf at Fairview these days, which is a Robert Trent Jones design. You'd be hard-pressed to come up with an architect with less reverence for Macdonald than RTJ, yet our 17th hole is a spectacular template of Genus Bottleus, i.e., a Bottle Hole.
A few years back, the Met. Golf Writers went to Tamarack Golf Club, a Charles Banks design that had been recently renovated by Brian Silva. Silva presented to the group, but prior to our playing the course. Their 14th hole is called "Road", but as I played it I could discern to design DNA in common with the original. Can you?
I was dying to ask Brian what design principles he thought Banks had in mind, but he had the good sense to disappear before I had the opportunity. Kidding, of course, but this is the fun of templates, seeing how they can be employed in the real world of routing a golf course.
I love such stuff but, of course, your mileage may vary.
Bug, Feature - We're dispensing with folks most precious assumptions today, so shall we train our fire on the round bellies? Hey, I didn't start it,
Eammon Lynch did:
This ought to have been an outstanding week for Miller Brady. The PGA Tour Champions, of which Brady is president, began its season in Hawaii with more fanfare than usual thanks to the debut of Hall of Famer Ernie Els. Nor is Els the only major winner who will slather on the Bengay and saddle up for the senior circuit in 2020. Jim Furyk and Mike Weir both turn 50 on May 12, with Rich Beem following in August.
He's kidding, right? If Mike Weir and Rich Beem don't move the needle, who can?
But here's the cause of Eammon's sad:
Yet for all the promise this year holds for Brady, it presents a problem too: Phil Mickelson.
Mickelson turns 50 on June 16. That’s Tuesday of U.S. Open week at Winged Foot, a
tournament he may need — and would almost certainly receive — an exemption into. The first old guys event for which he’s eligible is the U.S. Senior Open, held one week later at Newport Country Club in Rhode Island. Since Mickelson remains focused on completing the career grand slam at the U.S. Open, what are the chances he’s going to pitch up at the geriatric version of the event?
Slim and none, and slim just left town, as Curtis Strange used to say.
See, I'm a glass half-full kind of guy. I'm just excited I can watch golf from Newport... No one has been there since Tiger's second Am.
Here's the gist of his gripes:
On the face of it, the PGA Tour Champions is robust. There are 27 stops on the ‘20 schedule with a total prize fund nearing $60 million. Viewership on Golf Channel averages 133,000, equal to LPGA events and better than the Korn Ferry Tour (figures are skewed since Champions events are usually measured over three days versus four for other Tours). But 40 years after it was founded, the PGA Tour Champions has long since ceased being a showcase for fading legends and is instead an annuity for journeymen who couldn’t draw a crowd if they were playing in thongs amid the many vigorous widows at The Villages.
Who you calling a journeyman? Scott McCarron? Wes Short? Woody Austin? Steve Flesch?
It's been ever thus, interrupted by brief moments of interest... remember that Jack-Chi Chi Senior Open playoff? That might have been the last.
Jack At Eighty - Mostly just some links, if you're inclined to dig deeper:
Seems Low -
‘Yes, Sir!’: The 80 greatest Jack Nicklaus moments But, if you're going with the Verne Lundquist bit, seems to me the accompanying photo should have been in a yellow shirt. Mind you, I'd still take that '75 Masters over the '86 installment, though it's the six-pack that's really amazing.
No More Golf Courses, OK? -
Jack Nicklaus at 80: ‘I’ve still got a lot of things I want to do’
Happy Birthday, Jack.
