Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Midweek Musings - Groundhog Day Edition

There's a rumor that Pat Perez saw his shadow, ensuring six more years of LIV.... 

LIV Ascendant - In Monday's post I somehow neglected to cover the LIV event at Mayakoba.... I know, what was I thinking?  I will concede that Joaquin Niemann had an eventful week, a 59 and a two-shot penalty was a daily-double one doesn't often see, and the "W" makes it a trifecta.  It would have been more memorable had it occurred in an actual professional golf tournament, but still notable.

Dylan Dethier seems mostly to be sensible lad, but in this week's Monday Finish he tends towards the breathless:

LIV GOLF’S DREAM WEEK

It might not mean what you think.

When LIV first announced its schedule for the 2024 season, I was shocked to see its debut event
put up against the PGA Tour’s Signature Event at Pebble Beach. It seemed like a huge gamble — and likely a mistake. Relatively few people would watch the Mayakoba event when set against the game’s most competitive field at one of its most storied venues.

But then came the rain. And the wind. And the delay. And the Sunday cancelation. You could argue it’s a mistake to play Pebble Beach in early Feb. You could argue it’s unlucky the Tour had its first 54-hole finish in eight years. You could wonder if somehow LIV had enough money in its coffers to order up a monsoon. Whatever the reason, the controversial league ended up with a dream start to its 2024 season.

Since I think it means nothing, I do hope that sub-head is a misfire.  But do go on, Dylan: 

It’s hard to overstate just how many things broke right for LIV on Sunday. But let’s try to count a few of ’em:

There was suddenly no PGA Tour event to compete with (1), but PGA Tour fans had been planning on some afternoon golf viewing (2), leaving them primed, ready and able to flip to LIV. There was no LPGA event (3), either, eliminating Golf Channel as a landing spot for alternate live tournament action. As time has gone on and the PGA Tour and LIV have broached the idea of a future together, some fans have become more open-minded to the idea of watching LIV (4) — or resigned to the idea that it’ll be part of pro golf’s future (5). There also was no NFL football for the first Sunday since early September (6), leaving sports fans jonesing for something. With LIV’s continued signings and improved depth, there was an excellent chance for a compelling leaderboard — but this went well even by those standards. With two holes to play, the trio of Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann and blockbuster signee Jon Rahm were all tied (7), with the former two ultimately heading to a sudden-death playoff (8) that finished in the darkness, stretching LIV’s TV window toward primetime (9) as Niemann putted for the win, illuminated by the greenside scoreboard on 18. There have been LIV highlights before now — think Bryson DeChambeau’s 58 or Dustin Johnson‘s playoff win — but this felt like the first time LIV had a real moment all to itself (10). I’m not saying everyone who tuned in loved it. But yeah. It was a good week for LIV.

Wow, is the Earth still orbiting the sun?  Dylan does a good job of noting how the Jordan River parted for the upstarts, but those bits about folks being more open to LIV qualify as little more than unsupported supposition.  As for the absence of impediments to sports/golf fans switching to LIV, even if so inclined, they would have to know it was on and where to find, two quite serious unresolved issues for them.

We'll circle back to Dylan, who has more thoughts of interest, but you will notice that he implies a ratings home run for LIV, who stopped releasing ratings last year because, well, there weren't any.

So, Dylan, whatya say to this underwhelming performance:

Despite canceled final round at Pebble Beach (and no NFL playoffs), LIV Golf still struggles in TV ratings

Here's the skinny:

On the bright side, they seem able to draw one-quarter the audience of a meaningless February women's college basketball game, so they've got that going for them.  So, perhaps Dylan is correct that folks are more open to watching it, though I can refute that anyone is actually watching it.  I'm sure Greg Norman will be bloviating about the twelve guys that streamed the coverage, but still there isn't enough lipstick in the world for this pig.

Back to Dylan who offers an interesting thought, though first he dunks on the PGA Tours Face Plant Tour™:

It was a rough week for the PGA Tour, too. This was an event the circuit had circled on its calendar for months, leaning into the idea of its best players in contention on a football-free Sunday in primetime at one of the most iconic golf courses in the world. This was also the week the Tour announced its deal with the Strategic Sports Group (SSG), providing its top players with league equity and its new for-profit enterprise with $1.5 billion, with another $1.5b promised later. It seemed like a chance to reward its players, cement plans for the future and dunk on LIV in the process. But then it wasn’t.

Yeah, but they've all been rough weeks for the Tour....

So — now what?

The dominant reaction I saw in the wake of Sunday’s action was a renewed call for the two sides to come together. I get that thinking. More people watching LIV means more people reminded what the PGA Tour has lost with Niemann, Garcia, Rahm off to play elsewhere — not to mention Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Johnson, DeChambeau and others.

But I’d argue this week made quick compromise less likely, if anything.

In the offseason LIV and the PGA Tour weren’t necessarily on the same page but their trains were parked in the same station. Now? The PGA Tour is headed northeast and LIV is headed northwest and they’re each picking up speed, getting further apart every minute. LIV just got its best indication yet that it has tapped into something. The PGA Tour just secured enough funding that they feel no urgency to compromise. Playing chicken with the Saudi Public Investment Fund is a risky maneuver. But getting into business with the PIF is no guarantee of victory, either.

There are still plenty of reasons a compromise could happen. The PGA Tour doesn’t want that game of chicken. The PIF could still benefit tremendously from association with the PGA Tour. The SSG investors may be keen on connecting with a fresh source of funding. And the PIF may be keen on connecting with the SSG, opening doors to other sports leagues in the process. But it doesn’t feel like anything is happening soon.

I think the Tour's week-to-week foibles are amusing and, were anyone actually watching, would show the folly of small fields and the devastating impact on the second-tier events.   That said, the only people watching have been co-opted (Peter Malnati, call your office), so it's to no effect.

The word worth considering is that italicized "something", and here's where I do disagree.  LIV, even after signing Rahm and Hatton, remains little more than a hot mess.  And therein lies Yasir's biggest problem, because he can throw billions at it, but those billions don't anyone care.

The Patrick Cantlays of the world seem to have come to the belief that they are Golf, or at least that they are PROFESSIONAL GOLF, but in reality they matter very little.  Jon Rahm has a far better resume than a Cantlay or even a Scottie Scheffler, but we are about see that LIV with Jon Rahm is indistinguishable from LIV sans Rahmbo.

What next?

Finally, we should be careful (and it may already be too late for this column) not to overreact to one week and one data point. This coming weekend we’ll get another head-to-head showdown between the two leagues, and this time they won’t even be separated by time zone — the WM Phoenix Open is less than 300 miles from LIV’s event in Las Vegas. LIV is smart to tie its Vegas event to Super Bowl weekend, as plenty of sports fans and famous people will be in town with nothing scheduled for Saturday’s final round. But how will that compare to the biggest party in golf? We’ll see.

OK, I do agree that this week LIV has chosen an interesting gamble, though being in the same city as the Super Bowl may only serve to highlight their insignificance.  But Dylan seems not to appreciate the significance of that Saturday finish.  To wit, that two of the three rounds will not even air on TV.  Dylan thinks LIV has found that elusive something, but it's not sufficient for the CW to preempt weekday Buffy reruns.  

But I think Dylan misfires as relates to the PGA, as well:

So where does that leave us? Still stuck in limbo. And adjusting to the idea that limbo may be our new reality. The PGA Tour has its plan. It’s financially viable. It has history and habit and top broadcast channels on its side. And there are golf fans who will resist watching LIV because they don’t like the idea of shotgun starts or team golf or — this one’s probably the biggest — a sovereign wealth fund taking over their favorite sports league and using it to advance its place before the world. But LIV has doubled down on its product. While its path to profitability is murky, its funding seems, for now, secure. Coexistence is here.

I don't expect a young golf writer to be economically literate, but that V-word is a howler.  Yes, the Tour has sucked some jock-sniffers into a huge cash infusion, but said cash infusion is clearly allocated to funding large operating losses.  The late Daniel Patrick Moynihan coined a wonderful phrase, defining deviancy down, that pops into mind, as Dylan has defined viability down.

As I've pointed out ad nauseum, today's pampered elite player simply refuses to peg it for an amount that the golf ecosystem can generate (just scan those TV ratings above).  The gamble is that the Tour can dramatically increase its revenues to cover this shortfall, a prospect that seems dubious at best.

We haven't seen much of Alan Shipnuck lately, but he's posted an Ask Alan. so let's grab the LIV-related portions thereof:

Are guys like Joaquin Niemann really upset about not being in the majors? That’s the deal they made by going to LIV. I guess winning $4 million doesn’t mean much anymore when the first words out of his mouth is about missing majors. @amolyajnik

We’ll see how many major championships he actually misses. Niemann’s victory at the Australian Open in December earned him an exemption into the ’24 British Open, and he can play his way to Pinehurst through U.S. Open qualifying like all of the other dreamers. The Masters and PGA Championship are invitationals and their respective committees can invite Niemann if they are so inclined, no matter where he falls in the increasingly irrelevant OWGR. The PGA Championship already set a precedent last year when it gave Paul Casey an exemption, so the real intrigue surrounds the Masters, which has always coveted international audiences. Niemann is the best player from the whole of South America, and he was top 20 in the world when he went to LIV. The Masters is diminished without him in the field. But the lords of Augusta are traditionalists, and with their spot on the governing board of the OWGR they helped deny LIV’s application for recognition, so there is much intrigue as to how they will handle Niemann (and perhaps Talor Gooch if he keeps winning).

Alan may be right in his analysis, and it appears form this that Niemann played (not especially well) in all four 2023 majors.  That said, the question I typically is why should I care about a player that takes the big check and puts his major participation at risk?  If you need the guaranteed money, to me that says you're not all in on your career, so good luck to you!

And, in one of those effortless segues for which I am renown, speaking of players about whom I've lost interest:

Is there a parallel universe where Sergio Garcia wins four or five majors through sheer
ballstriking prowess and a little luck here or there? @Levi275

Easily. I’m reminded of what PGA Tour veteran Scott Harrington texted reporter Dan Rappaport after being paired with Garcia in U.S. Open qualifying last year: “Haven’t played with Tiger but have played with everybody else. Was first time with Sergio. In terms of putting the bat on the ball and shotmaking, it’s the most impressive I’ve seen.” Garcia has 24 top-10s in the major championships but only one victory. Shaky putting and emotional immaturity explains a lot, but when a player puts himself in position that many times you’d think a win or two (at least) would fall into his lap. That it’s never happened for Garcia can be described as bad luck…or karma.

After seeing his graceless exit from the two golf tours that made him fabulously wealthy, his squandered talent is more of a feature than a bug.  I'm tempted to insert the ubiquitous video of him spitting in a cup and using the "nothing but net defense", but I'm also quite lazy.

Life Is About Choices - I'm not going deep here and I certainly remain more favorably disposed towards the Spaniard than to many of those predecessors, but the juxtaposition is interesting:

‘Your feelings do change’: Jon Rahm says LIV decision hinged on 2 factors

I still hate it, but after June 6th it became clear that the issue was never the source of the money, rather it was the end destination thereof.

But:

Jon Rahm says he got 'emotional' missing his favorite West Coast events

But, hey, you get to spend more quality time with Sergio.... perhaps he can teach you his trick of spitting into the cup?

Tour Stuff - Not gonna stress myself here, but we had that Rory v. Jordan cage match that was interesting, as is this guy weighing in:

‘Definitely not’: Justin Thomas says LIV pros shouldn’t be able to rejoin PGA Tour easily

On Tuesday, Thomas revealed that while he isn’t firmly on one side or the other in terms of a PGA Tour-PIF deal, should the two sides come to an agreement, he thinks players who left for LIV should not be able to return “easily” to the PGA Tour.

“I’m not necessarily super adamant one way or the other. I want the best product and the best players,” Thomas said on Tuesday. “I would say that there’s a handful of players on LIV that would make the [PGA] Tour a better place, but I’m definitely not in the agreement that they should just be able to come back that easily.”

He went on to explain that the “sacrifices” PGA Tour pros made to turn down LIV’s big-money offers makes it difficult for those players to stomach the idea of LIV pros rejoining the Tour, especially without some kind of system to address their initial decision to leave.

“I totally understand that things are changing and things are getting better, but it just would — I would have a hard time with it,” Thomas said, “and I think a lot of guys would have a hard time with it, and I’m sure we don’t need to convince you why we would have a hard time with it.”

JT's opinion is interesting only because of his bromance with a certain Player Director.   But how do I see this playing out in the event of a deal with PIF?  As is often said in the context of the Democratic Part, you don't have to fall in love, you just have to fall in line.

I'm just going to riff the remainder of Alan's mailbag feature, and then focus on the snow continuing to fall:

Does Wyndham Clark’s 60 get an asterisk? @adamkommers

Nah, he doesn’t make the rules and he can only play the course that is presented to him. The guy was nails from start to finish. But I’m glad Clark didn’t shoot 59 under lift, clean and place because *that* would have demanded an asterisk.

It's at best an interesting distinction, but he seems to want to force an asterisk upon Al Geiberger.

What is preventing the Tour from moving the Pebble event to the summer when it can run in prime time? Nobody wants to watch guys sweating through their Dockers in Memphis in late July/August. Play Riviera and Pebble Beach when players would love California summer and fans get evening golf! @LivingItUpPod

It’s a great idea but the Pebble Beach Co. doesn’t want to give up those long summer days when the tee sheet is packed with hundreds of golfers and the cash registers are ringing. Pebble is also hosting three U.S. Opens in June between now and 2037 so a summertime Clambake would be redundant. Alas, we’re stuck with Crosby weather forever.

I frequently speak of the Tour s******g on its own history, but does it really want to give up that valuable piece of intellectual property known as Crosby Weather™? 

Alan's answer is fine, I would just add that the only rationale for taking majors to Tour venues such as Pebble and Torrey, is that the conditions are so different (and more challenging) in the summer.  There's also some geographic logic since the Tour in February is in the 'hood.

Alan does reasonably OK on this issue that I've covered:

How does “player equity” work when the roster is continually moving with new players coming and going all the time? @votehimoutinnov

Short answer is timing is everything: card-carrying PGA Tour member in 2024 are lucky mofos! They will reap most of the benefits of a century of toil by their predecessors. I’d love for PGA Tour Enterprises to break off some dough for all the old-timers. How about every living pro golfer over 40 gets $1,000 for every start that he made on Tour? It would be a symbolic thank you to the old dogs and the journeymen who helped build this thing. Or, let’s add another zero to that if we’re feeling generous. But the vast majority of the money will be dispensed right away to reward top players who didn’t jump to LIV and discourage any who are currently contemplating. If the PIF walks away from the framework agreement in the next few months, and the Tour is again in a fierce battle to keep its players, pretty much all the equity will be burned up this year.

I'll just remind that the bonecutters were willing to put $1 billion large to cover Patrick's sense of entitlement....

Equity is just one of those ideas that sounds great and will prove ineffective, but also tie their hands in the future.  But the important thing to acknowledge is that professional golf did not exist before this current group of players.

But isn't this a really good question:

Hi Alan, I’ve asked this one three times on past “Ask Alan’s”: Why wasn’t the private equity path pursued from the start versus going to PIF last summer? Seems so logical. @Michaelarinewma

Clearly I’m susceptible to guilt trips—well done, Mike! But you’ve kind of answered your own
question: it was too logical. PE money had been circling professional golf for years. After all, Raine Capital had pledged $500 million to the upstart Premier Golf League and Raine had been in deep negotiations with the European Tour, too. Jay Monahan knew all of this and still he decided to try to compete with the Saudis’ $750 billion war chest by…checks notes…squeezing his wary corporate sponsors for an extra million or two. Oy.

On some level, I don’t blame Jay. He has day-to-day oversight of a massive bureaucracy and has to fret about everything from Bernhard Langer anchoring his putter to finding sponsors for the Latinoamérica Tour to his direct-reports having flings with subordinates (allegedly). But what about his army of Vice Presidents—shouldn’t they be gaming every possible scenario? What about the supposed corporate whiz kids on the PGA Tour board—aren’t they supposed to be big, strategic thinkers? It’s easy to blame Jay but the slow, reactive, ineffectual response to LIV’s gathering storm was a massive institutional failing, and the mistakes keep compounding.

Ummm, perhaps because Jay was too depressed to actually do his job?

I think this is actually multiple questions, first why it wasn't pursued pre-LIV, but also why it wasn't part of the original LIV defense strategy.  In any case, it doesn't speak well of our Jay.

Gotta run.  I'll catch you further down the road....

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