Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Midweek Musings

I'm back blogging from the mothership, and we've got all your March Madness needs covered.

Here's your bracket:


I'm guessing you can read that, but will prudently not subject your eyes to the strain.... Good call, so here are today's matches:
Tee times
9:20 a.m.: Tommy Fleetwood vs. Byeong Hun An (Group 11)
9:31 a.m: Louis Oosthuizen vs. Kyle Stanley (Group 11)
9:42 a.m.: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Russell Knox (Group 6)
9:53 a.m: Marc Leishman vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Group 6)
10:04 a.m.: Tony Finau vs. Keith Mitchell (Group 14)
10:15 a.m.: Ian Poulter vs. Kevin Kisner (Group 14)
10:26 a.m.: Brooks Koepka vs. Tom Lewis (Group 3)
10:37 a.m.: Alex Noren vs. HaoTong Li (Group 3)
10:48 a.m.: Paul Casey vs. Abraham Ancer (Group 10)
10:59 a.m.: Cameron Smith vs. Charles Howell III (Group 10)
11:10 a.m: Francesco Molinari vs. Satoshi Kodaira (Group 7)
11:21 a.m.: Webb Simpson vs. Thorbjørn Olesen (Group 7)
11:32 a.m.: Bubba Watson vs. Kevin Na (Group 15)
11:43 a.m.: Jordan Spieth vs. Billy Horschel (Group 15)
11:54 a.m.: Justin Rose vs. Emiliano Grillo (Group 2)
12:05 p.m.: Gary Woodland vs. Eddie Pepperell (Group 2)
12:16 p.m.: Jason Day vs. Jim Furyk (Group 12)
12:27 p.m.: Phil Mickelson vs. Henrik Stenson (Group 12)
12:38 p.m.: Justin Thomas vs. Lucas Bjerregaard (Group 5)
12:49 p.m.: Keegan Bradley vs. Matt Wallace (Group 5)
1:00 p.m.: Tiger Woods vs. Aaron Wise (Group 13)
1:11 p.m.: Patrick Cantlay vs. Brandt Snedeker (Group 13)
1:22 p.m.: Rory McIlroy vs. Luke List (Group 4)
1:33 p.m.: Matthew Fitzpatrick vs. Justin Harding (Group 4)
1:44 p.m.: Xander Schauffele vs. Lee Westwood (Group 9)
1:55 p.m.: Rafa Cabrera Bello vs. Tyrrell Hatton (Group 9)
2:06 p.m.: Jon Rahm vs. Si Woo Kim (Group 8)
2:17 p.m.: Matt Kuchar vs. J.B. Holmes (Group 8)
2:28 p.m.: Patrick Reed vs. Andrew Putnam (Group 16)
2:39 p.m.: Sergio Garcia vs. Shane Lowry (Group 16)
2:50 p.m.: Dustin Johnson vs. Chez Reavie (Group 1)
3:01 p.m.: Hideki Matsuyama vs. Branden Grace (Group 1)
First bit to note that it's a loaded field, with only two no-shows of note.  Those are Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott, so the female population of Austin is hardest hit.

For World Cup fans seeking out that Group of Death™, Joel Beall breaks down all sixteen groups.

Format Stuff -  That very same Joel Beall is living in the past with this cri de coeur:
Bring back the chaos 
One of the worst things you can say about the golf calendar is that tournament weeks have a tendency to blend together, but the old WGC Match Play was at least a deviation from the norm. On Wednesday of that week, it was 32 matches between the 64 best
players in the world, half of whom would shake hands with their opponent and check out of their hotels before they even could make a dent in the mini-bar. 
It was chaotic, unpredictable, and utterly impractical. It was also one of the best days of the year. 
The argument against the single-elimination format, which the tour abandoned in favor of pool play in 2015, was that the Match Play risked becoming progressively less interesting as the weeks went on. Which is true if you believed the tournament’s fortunes hinged solely on having name brands in contention. But in hedging against upsets that would jettison marquee stars early in the week, the tour also sacrificed the event’s distinguishing feature. It made Wednesday, now just the first of three days of play pool, decidedly less compelling. And it only nominally increased the chances of your favorite player getting to stick around for the weekend.
Joel, you had me at hello, but.....  He's shading the truth.  Fact is the single elimination format got less interesting day-by-day for everybody....  As I said many times, it was an upside down tournament that peaked on Wednesday.  And those Wednesdays delivered the goods, but sometimes that meant Tiger losing to Nick O'Hern.  Twice.

But we're never going back there, Joel, not least because of the date change.  With the event now two weeks before The Masters, the guys need to know that they'll get some golf in, and the round-robin format is likely the least bad solution to that problem.  You want an example of how it could be worse?
Players were informed last week that a proposal had been presented to the player advisory council to dramatically change the format of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. 
The new format, which was requested by Dell Technologies, would double the number of players who advance out of match play group play to 32 for 36 holes of stroke-play competition on the weekend at Austin Country Club. According to the memo sent to players, the PAC “was not supportive of the proposed format change.” 
“What would you call it?” laughed Paul Casey, a member of the 16-player PAC.
I didn't realize that Dell had saved this event only to try to destroy it.  Guys, the purpose of taking one week of the year for match play is, and I'll speak slowly hear so you can follow, is to see the guys in match play.  I would have thought that we'd all agree that we see enough stroke play the other 51 weeks of the year....


Golfweek Geoff (as distinct from blog Shack) wants Dell and all others to get their grubby paws off the format:

What should be one of the premier titles in golf and played at the game’s oldest format has been undermined intermittently by sponsor concerns about match play’s legitimacy as entertainment, even as the dynamics of head-to-head play have raised match play’s
stock. Before Dell saved this event, Accenture nobly put up lavish money to support the match play and Commissioner Tim Finchem fought to keep the format on the schedule. The game has been better for it, even if the current schedule spot and round-robin setup are far from perfect.

And now Dell Technologies wants a fresh look taken at the format, leading to the sponsor making an asinine proposal to contest match play early in the week with the goal of getting to a weekend of stroke play. 
Players, mercifully, voted down that stinker of an idea, though it’s a mystery how such a lousy idea even made it to the Player Advisory Council’s agenda. Rex Hoggard reported for GolfChannel.com that the PAC rejected a proposal requested by Dell Technologies to double the number of players advancing out of the match play to 32, setting up a weekend 36-hole stroke play finish. 
Lamer format ideas have been floated in the history of golf, though I’m at a loss right now to name one. 
While everyone involved has different views on the best way to crown a match play winner, there is universal agreement on one thing: the WGC Dell Match Play should be decided at … match play. Reportedly, a question from Paul Casey about what the event would be called under the new format helped players say no to Dell, an otherwise fantastic sponsor that has poured millions into this event.
Match play is hell for televised golf, but you'd think Dell knew what they were getting when they wrote the check.  While the players will likely never stop whining, at least this idea seems to be stillborn.


Rules Stuff -  This will likely be the first we see of match play under the shiny new rules of golf, but fortunately Geoff is there with all the new vocabulary:

The highlights 
  • The word “halve” is out, “tying” a hole is in. This was driven by the rules attempting to employ more commonly used language.
  • Match “score” is now the correct terminology instead of “status” of the match. Score one for the blue collar linguists.
  • In the old rules what we know to be asking or requesting a ruling was called “making a claim.” But since this isn’t the insurance business, the rule-makers have adopted “request a ruling.”
  • The penalty has been eliminated for accidentally moving an opponent’s ball or ball-marker on the putting green. (Used to be a one-stroke penalty.)
  • There is no penalty when a ball in motion accidentally hits the opponent, their caddie or the opponent’s equipment. But the ball must be played where it lies, except on the putting green where the stroke does not count and must be replayed. Previously, a match play opponent could ask for the shot to be replayed.
  • No longer is there a penalty for stopping an opponent’s ball in motion as long as there is no reasonable chance the moving ball could go in the hole. This is the Jordan Spieth-in-the-Presidents Cup rule, when he scooped up Louis Oosthuizen’s ball after an eagle attempt moved by the hole. Previously this was a loss of hole.
They're gonna have to prior those halves from my cold dead hands..... Yanno, I've been calling it a "halve" and a "hazard" since 1744, so why are you making me learn a new vocabulary?

Something strange just has to happen this week as regards the new rules, no?

"Who You Got?" Stuff - We'll first circle back to Sunday's Tour Confidential panel, which led with this query:
1. Tiger Woods is in the field at this week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, which will likely be his final tune-up before the Masters. But Woods has never played this new match-play format, which is three guaranteed matches and could be as many as seven if he gets to the final day. Like his chances? And is this format potentially too much golf for a creaky Woods with Augusta just two weeks later?
I'm going to tentatively go with "maybe", at least until I see what the professionals have to say.
Josh Sens: I’m not sure there’s a format that isn’t suited for the greatest player of all time. But match play seems especially good for him given the way he’s played of late — some rough patches, but he can still reel off birdies with the best of them. As for the
creakiness, Woods seems to have a better handle now on what his body can and can’t handle. I trust he knows what rest his body does and doesn’t need in the run up to Augusta. 
Alan Shipnuck: I think Tiger would have more adrenaline for the old win-or-go-home format. For him this is all about getting reps ahead of the Masters — actually winning matches will be a bonus.
I think Alan hits on the dichotomy, though doesn't perhaps know it.  Assuming his priority is Masters prep, then the new format has to be to his liking.  Ironically, though, the worst thing that might happen to him is to win his group and be forced to play seven matches, which is likely too much golf for an old man.

I do like this follow-up question though....
2. What’s up with these former Masters champs? Patrick Reed went through a couple ofemergency range sessions with David Leadbetter at the Valspar, where he was 10 over and missed the cut by a mile. Reed’s scoring average over his last three events is 72.6 and his last three rounds have been 75-77-78. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth hasn’t finished better than T35 all season. Whose struggles are more alarming as the Masters looms? And who’s more likely to snap out of his funk first?
Translating into English, who's more screwed up?  It's like a Miller Lite commercial, I feel strongly both ways....
Sens: Spieth’s because they’ve been stubborn, and because his drop off has been more severe. 
Shipnuck: Agree. Both have always been streaky players, but these funks seem more severe than usual. Spieth especially is a concern, given he’s now going on two years since his last win. But I talked with him after his missed cut at the Players and he seemed surprisingly upbeat, given that he thinks his putting is back. If that’s the case, the confidence will filter into the rest of his game. It will be fascinating to see if Augusta can once again cure what ails him. 
Dethier: What’s fascinating is that if you look at the top 12 players in the world, none have won a Masters (they have a collective two British Opens, five U.S. Opens and five PGAs, by my count). Certain guys play well at Augusta; Spieth’s one of them. It’s alarming that he has zero top-eight finishes since last year’s Masters, but I’d be really surprised if he doesn’t find something at this year’s event. As for Reed, he’s been mostly fine, if unspectacular. Being a Masters champ ratchets up the attention we pay to you, which I think is mostly what’s going on here. 
Bamberger: Spieth’s funky. If he played 54 or 63 holes of superior golf at Augusta it wouldn’t surprise me at all. His excellence was never rooted in perfect mechanics anyhow. Reed has a timing, trap-draw swing, and if he has lost touch with it who knows when it will come back? If we’re talking about one event, the 2019 Masters, I like Spieth’s prospects more. But that’s not saying much.
No question that Jordan's high was higher (three majors to the one), though Patrick's was more recent.  Steve DeMeglio with this shocking news:
You can read it yourself if you have the stomach for it, but I need something a little more tangible.  There's a body of thought that all Jordan needs is a trip down Magnolia Lane, but what if that doesn't cure him?  Puts him under a bit of pressure there, no?

As for Captain America, Shack has this news for us:
 I adore that header, mostly because I'm unclear as to which is the Titanic....  Does anyone besides Michelle Wie still use Leadbetter?  Or is Team Reed the Titanic?  Because if you've seen his recent play....

Here's Geoff's take:
How long before Ricky Bobby grows bored with David Leadbetter’s ideas remains to be
seen, but the legendary instructor has officially signed up for Team Patrick Reed just two weeks shy of the 2018 Masters champion’s title defense. 
Tim Rosaforte Tweeted the news and received word from Reed spokesman, CEO and spouse, Justine Reed: “We are very proud to announce that Mr. David Leadbetter will be joining our team and we all look forward to working with him.” 
This may be a Leadbetter first: reporting to the wife of the player he’s coaching.
But wait, it gets more amusing, because the incumbent isn't going anywhere:


Awkward.  I'm sure they'll all get along famously....

In other handicapping analyses, Tiger seems to like the venue:
Woods saw the home of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play for the first time Monday when he played the front nine. Tuesday, he took in the back nine with Bryson DeChambeau, intently studying the course each day.
“Well, it’s not flat, I’ll tell you that,” Woods laughed. “It’s got quite a bit of movement to it. And it’s a great match-play course. I can see why the guys like it. 
“You’ll see some high numbers here, and you’ll see a lot of birdies. That’s exactly what a good match play course does. It’s an interesting golf course. 
“There’s going to be a lot of interesting lies and shapes. It’s a good walk.”
 DeMeglio brings up his CV in the format:
How Woods has missed it so. He showed his dominance in the format when he won the event in 2003, 2004 and 2008. He also won three consecutive U.S. Junior Amateur titles and three consecutive U.S. Amateur titles. So as he tended to numerous injuries that curtailed his play starting in 2014, most notably with his back, Woods missed the strategy and mano-a-mano style of match play.
Not only were those Juniors back in the Mesozoic Era, but he's not been especially good in Ryder Cup singles in recent years.

These folks suggest spending your money elsewhere:
One of our biggest takeaways? Avoid Tiger Woods this week. Tiger has never teed it up at the Austin Country Club in the WGC-Match Play, which is a disadvantage he doesn't share with most of the field (there are only 10 others who haven't teed it up here in the past). We know Tiger's focus is always on the four majors—so to us, playing in the WGC-Match Play is likely more born out of not wanting to miss out on world-ranking points up for grabs in the third WGC event of the season. We don't think his motivation for advancing through the match-play bracket will be too high, thus, your money is likely better spent in other places. Read on to see where you should put that money this week.
His group includes Patrick Cantlay, Sneds and Aaron Wise, whom he plays this afternoon, so I'm thinking it will all hinge on his putter.  But 18 holes of match play is basically a coin flip, so my word of advice is to enjoy but not over-interpret what happens out there.

The guys warning us off Tiger had these picks:
Gary Woodland?  I don't see that at all, but I'm the guy that got Hagen v. Mickelson wrong....

Josh Sens has your sleepers here, and they're a curious bunch:
Jim Furyk: Ok, so maybe not a classic sleeper; at least not after his sparkling showing at the Players. But Furyk is fuego right now. He’s made every cut since 2019 began, and four of those are top 20 finishes. Sure, his length and age will make him an underdog in just about every match he plays in, but he’s a worthy one to back at the moment.
Please no, because I can't see Fluff as able to walk this hilly course seven times.

Hasn't this boat sailed...like a decade ago?
Lee Westwood: Remember Westy? The once Best Player to Never Win a Major still hasn’t won a major. But he’s still a ball-striker extraordinaire. That’s why he never seems to have a full drop-off of form, even at 45-going-on-46. A few hot days for him with the flat-stick and you never know. He’s also playing for a chance at the Masters. If he reaches the final four, he’ll get another drive down Magnolia Lane.
If you're in the markets for a dog, as in underdog, they don't get any doggier than this match:
Anyway, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman shared betting lines for all 32 of Wednesday's group-play matches. And nothing jumped off the page more than the odds for the match between Dustin Johnson and Chez Reavie.

Sure, it's a meeting of the World No. 1 vs. a guy even avid golf fans probably couldn't pick out of a lineup, but that's pretty lopsided. At -310, you'd have to risk $310 to win $100 if you bet on DJ, or you could potentially get a $250 payout off a $100 wager on Reavie (+250).
On the one hand, it's David v. Goliath....  But on the other, it's a pretty rich payout for a coin flip.


Moodsetting Stuff - Shack sets the table for us in this post of walks down memory lane.  First up is Tiger v. Stephen Ames, which made 10&8 into an integral part of Tiger's legacy.


But Shack also shares the Best. Match. Ever., Keegan v. Miggy in a Friday consolation match that meant absolutely nothing to anybody.  Keegan blows a fuse and is taken to school by the Spaniard, and ends up in the passenger seat of his courtesy car petting his girlfriends lapdog.  Really, you can't make this stuff up:


Good times.  Enjoy the week, and I'll see you tomorrow.

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