Weekend Wrap

We did get some snow in Utah at long last... Way too late (especially after temps in the 60's) and not near enough, so what the kids call dust on crust.  And so the ski season from hell winds down...

But, shall we cheer ourselves up with some golf carnage?

The King's Revenge - The cardigan has always been red, though the significance thereof has become more apparent in recent seasons:

There’s water on one side and rough on the other and the bone-dry fairways are firmer than the roof of your courtesy car and about as wide. The sun is out, the wind is up and if you can shoot even you

have flat-out golfed your ball. Arnold Palmer always wanted a U.S. Open at one of his courses, and on Sunday he got one, three months ahead of Father’s Day.

Sunday, Sunday at Bay Hill Speedway.

Jon Rahm, who won the National Open at Torrey Pines last year, needed three putts on 16 in the finale, and when he came off the green he raised his putter head high above his head as if readying to smash it into the rear bumper of a parked golf cart.

The great and large Spaniard held off that swing but not the swift kick he gave to the boom mic beside the left Mastercard tee marker on 18 after his last tee shot finished in the gnarly right rough. You have to like a man who cares, though he, of course, should have replaced the microphone himself. A tournament staffer did it for him, immediately and silently.

OK, but that guy kicks microphones in his sleep.  Somebody got handed a trophy, no?

Scottie Scheffler, at 25, has now played in five U.S. Opens. He missed the cut in 2016 and ’19 but he was the low amateur in 2017, and last year at Torrey he had a T7 finish. Then came his fifth Open start, the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

An hour after victory, he was still wearing his game-day shoes and still had his glove in his back left pocket but now he was wearing the red Arnold Palmer cardigan awarded to the winner here. Scheffler shot an even-par 72 on Sunday to win by a shot. As Johnny Miller (winner of the 1973 U.S. Open at Oakmont) used to say, “Pars are the good guys at U.S. Opens. They wear white hats.”

“Par is a pretty good score on every hole out here,” Scheffler said in victory. “I’m never upset with par.”

So, we always talk about that first win opening the floodgates, perhaps in Scheffler's case that will actually apply.   I'm still not completely sold on the guy's putter, but otherwise he seems the real deal.

I am, as usual amused by Rory McIlroy, or at least by the reaction to the Ulsterman.  He was the 18-hole leader, as we noted on Friday, generating reactions like this:

Rory McIlroy (unknowingly) drums up the Augusta hype train

But by Sunday....

“I feel punch drunk, to be honest,” McIlroy said. “The weekend, it’s like crazy golf. You just don’t get rewarded for good shots. Like I’m venting here and I’m frustrated and whatever. I think

as well the frustration is it’s a carbon copy of what’s happened the last three years here. I started off really, really well with a 66 or 65. Friday afternoon conditions got a little tougher. Then over the weekend, it’s sort of been the same stuff.

“So three years in a row it’s sort of been start off, lead the golf tournament, then you just sort of regress and come back to the field each and every day. Yeah, it’s frustrating. It’s hard to keep your patience out there.”

He’s right about the regression. On Thursday, McIlroy shot a seven-under 65 and jumped to a two-shot lead after 18 holes — then shot 72 and the back-to-back 76s. In 2021, McIlroy opened with a 66, only to go 71, 72, 76; and in 2020, he went 66, 73, 76, 76. (In 2019, he improved over the first three rounds and fell back on Sunday — 72, 70, 66, 72.)

Rors, funny you should hit on the statistical concept of regressions.  Because I know a player that won four majors by 2014, but since hasn't managed to even contend. 

The other irony at play is the analogy to U.S. Open conditions.  You know what event didn't provide U.S. Open conditions?  That would be the 2011 U. S. Open, won by eight shots by one, McIlroy, Rory.  Fact is, despite what his passport might say, he's about the worst prepared touring pro in windy, firm conditions that I know.

As is typical on Mondays, shall we check in with the Golf.com braintrust?  Sorry, that was rhetorical...

1. The best in the world melted down at Bay Hill this weekend. Thick rough, high winds and speedy greens across an already testing layout befuddled the pros, with Scottie Scheffler coming out on top — surviving? — with a five-under total. While it’s a break from the birdie bonanza from earlier this year, do you think the course bordered on the unfair?

Michael Bamberger: No, it’s fair. You can’t have the rough deeper, but it’s fair. With the wind up and the sun out, it is bound to play super hard. There’s nothing wrong with that. No matter what they shoot, they’re still eating cake.

Josh Sens: It wasn’t just fair, it was also entertaining, a refreshing break from those 20-under birdie fests we see plenty of already.

Dylan Dethier: Variety is the spice of life! I wouldn’t say they melted down. I’d say they battled a difficult golf course in difficult conditions. The players are allowed to be frustrated. I’m also allowed to enjoy it. Hard golf makes for prime viewing.

Josh Berhow: Not unfair. The wind is always a wild card. These guys are the best in the world and don’t particularly enjoy shooting high scores, so when courses and conditions bite back, you hear some of them get a little more defensive. I don’t want 18 under winning every week. I’m good with gritty pars winning golf tournaments.

Your humble blogger has long enjoyed watching them play under challenging conditions, though Florida golf has long been among my least favorite sub-species.  But there's so little week-to-week variety on Tour that a single-digit under par winning score has them curled up in the corner in the fetal position.  What's not to like?

One irony here is that Bay Hill seems to have appropriated the DNA of next week's stop on the calendar, an event of great importance to the Ponte Vedra suits.

The Tc gang used Scottie's success as a frame for this prognosticating:

5. Scheffler has now won twice in his past three starts, and he’s projected to leap Rory McIlroy and become the fifth-ranked player in the world. His hot streak has come at the right time, too, since the Players Championship begins this week and kicks off the heart of the Tour’s schedule — Players Championship, Masters in April, PGA Championship in May, U.S. Open in June and Open Championship in July. From what you’ve seen through the first half of the Tour season, who are you buying for the stretch run?

Bamberger: Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland and Jordan Spieth, and in that order.

Mike, I don't know what you've bene smoking, but I hope you brought enough to share.  Did you not see Rory's weekend? 

Sens: What, no Morikawa or Cantlay?

Dethier: We’ll discuss this on the next PGA Tour Stock Exchange podcast, so I don’t want to give too much away, but if we’re buying low, how about Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau?

Berhow: The guy you just mentioned, Scottie Scheffler! A rocking Ryder Cup, two wins in his past three starts, confidence galore and, now, proof he can win on the PGA Tour in both birdie-fests and U.S. Open-style grinds. Look out. Oh, and Morikawa.

What, no Rahm?  OK, they didn't have the luxury of pealing like I did:

6. Pat Perez, on this week’s episode of GOLF’s Subpar, said that Jon Rahm told him: “I’m not done until I win 19 majors … I’m not going to take off golf until I get to 19. Whether I do it or not doesn’t matter. But I am not quitting until I pass Tiger on that list.” To date, of course, Rahm has won one major. While we appreciate Rahm’s confidence, let’s make a prop bet — Rahm will win over/under six majors?

Bamberger: Based on the quote above, I’m taking the over. The way, way over.

Sens: Rahm will win multiple majors, but the talent pool is so deep and winning is so hard, six feels like a pretty good line. I’ll take the under.

Dethier: Under. Six is so many majors. He has played golf at a higher level than anyone else for a couple years in a row now and he has one. In golf, peaks are difficult to sustain. But I’d be delighted for Rahm to prove me wrong.

Berhow: Push!

Funny, way back in January my biggest question was whether Rahm could separate himself from the pack.  Thus far the answer is that he's unable to separate himself from the middle of the pack, though the usual rules about small sample sizes apply.

But he's violating every rule of karma here.  The time to turn your attention to your 19th major is after you've bagged the 18th.  

A couple of other events this week were maybe even more interesting.....or significant.  or, yanno, something...

You Ko Girl - We all love our Nelly and fawn over her, but she might need to set her sights on Miss Congeniality:

Jin Young Ko’s victory on Sunday morning at the HSBC Women’s World Championship would be considered dominant, were it not so routine.

The fact of the matter is, the 26-year-old LPGA Tour pro is winning at a clip unseen by anyone not named Tiger Woods, and it doesn’t appear as though she has any plans of stopping.

Ko won again on Sunday at the HSBC Women’s World Championship, a final-round, six-under 66 carrying the way to her 24th professional victory. Not that it was a surprise, anyway — with the victory, Ko has now won six of her last 10 starts. (For those scoring at home, yes, that is a 60 percent winning percentage … in golf.)

Yeah, it's crazy good, as captured in this TC question:

2. Jin Young Ko continued one of the more impressive runs in recent history. In winning the HSBC Women’s World Championship on Sunday, she has now finished atop the

leaderboard six times in her past 10 events, and in shooting 66, she has now shot 15 consecutive rounds in the 60s and 30 straight rounds under par. In short, she’s on fire. How do you see her season playing out? How many wins will she have at year’s end?

Bamberger: How many tournaments will she play? She looks like she’ll literally contend every time she plays. It’s happened before in women’s golf. It’s impossible to sustain, but it’s fun while it lasts.

Sens: Remember when Yani Tseng was never going to lose again? Michael’s right. It has happened and best to enjoy it for what it is rather than worry about what might be coming. That said, she’ll win two majors this year.

Dethier: Six? Eight? Who knows. As Sens lays out, let’s appreciate this for what it is. Ko almost never misses a green in regulation. She almost never makes bogey. She almost never shoots an over-par round. It’s going to make the Chevron all that much more exciting when she and Nelly Korda next tee it up in the same field.

Berhow: She won five last year, and it seems like she’s going to get at least that again this season. I hope she goes on a tear and threatens double digits, but I also hope another big-time star (Nelly Korda?) can have some good battles with her to give the sport a nice juicy rivalry at the top.

Coming to a boil at the perfect time.  The two alpha-dogs have an appointment at Mission Hills in a couple of weeks.  That event will have a bittersweet pall over it, as the LPGA squanders its ties to Dinah Shore and decamps to, checking notes, Houston.  

But speaking of Yani Tseng, do these girls know to not even look at the trophy?

More Like This, Please - I continue to believe that watching golfers play for survival is the most compelling spectacle our game offers:

Ryan Brehm needed a bit of a miracle. And he got it.

Brehm had just one start remaining on his Minor Medical Extension and decided to use it at this week’s Puerto Rico Open. But it was a big ask: he needed to win or finish solo second to keep his

PGA Tour.

So, of course, why wouldn’t he just win the whole thing?

Brehm held a three-stroke lead after 54 holes and never flinched on Sunday. He shot 67 for a 20-under total and dominating six-stroke victory. It’s the 35-year-old’s first PGA Tour win and came in his 68th start (he’s also won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour).

The only thin better is to watch a young player fight for his professional future with his wife on the bag... Think about it, the only person with a larger stake in the outcome is the one that has to keep the player focused.

 Of course you can't get eyeballs for the Ryan Brehms of the world, but it's great spectacle.

PIP Follies - The TC gang took on the PIP program:

3. Tiger Woods, the PGA Tour announced, won the first Player Impact Program, an initiative that measures, among other metrics, a player’s buzz. Notably, Woods may have also won next year’s PIP when he humorously responded to an earlier tweet from Phil Mickelson, who had declared himself the winner. With one year of the program in the books, how would you rate its success? Would you change anything?

Bamberger: I’d eliminate it. I’d say the results show it is a ridiculous contest or whatever you want to call it.

Sens: I’m for scrapping it as well. But then, I think it would be a net gain for the world to get rid of social media altogether, so I’m biased. If you have to keep it, just give it to Max Homa and be done with it.

Dethier: Look, it doesn’t do me any good, so I don’t much care about the future of the PIP. But its purpose was essentially to keep the top pros on the PGA Tour a little bit happier at year’s end — essentially a prize pool in lieu of appearance fees or guaranteed money. From a competitive standpoint, it serves no purpose. But from an organizational standpoint, I get it. As much as anyone can “get” those rankings and final standings, at least …

Berhow: It’s really a bizarre thing. Here they talked about something called Q-rating and MVP index and then Google search and this and that, and really what it means is that they just unloaded millions of dollars to most of the players you thought would get it anyway. I don’t know — I get the idea was to keep the stars who bring eyeballs to the game happy, but there’s gotta be better, more genuine, ideas than this. I don’t have one, though, so maybe there isn’t.

Don't forget those Meltwater Mentions!  This solved a temporary need for Jay, though the interesting thing now will be the log-term consequences.

4. Following Woods and Mickelson in the PIP standings were Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and Bubba Watson. Among the notables who missed the top 10 — and the money — were Rickie Fowler, one of the more popular players on Tour, and Max Homa, one of the more social media friendly players. What, to you, is the biggest surprise from the PIP results?

Bamberger: That anybody cares about it at all. Except those who are cashing checks.

Sens: I don’t think it’s surprising at all that people care about it. But I am surprised that Homa didn’t get more love. He’s smart and funny. Isn’t that what this sort of thing should be about?

Dethier: At risk of sounding like a know-it-all, I’m not surprised by either of these things! I’m intrigued by the results and, despite Homa’s reign as emperor of Golf Twitter, that doesn’t change the fact that Twitter ain’t real life. I was, however, surprised that Rickie Fowler wasn’t on the list, given the nature of the criteria.

Berhow: Homa not registering in the top 10 was a reminder to me that Twitter is just one small corner of the internet.

The first obvious ramification is that those at No. 11 and below will not be amused....  And obviously there will always be more losers than winners.

The second obvious impact is to understand what behavior is being reward.  Because, as I first heard in conjunction with law firm compensation, is that which gets rewarded gets repeated. I'm not sure we'll like the PIP-world we've created, but then again I've admitted to being deep into the "Get off my lawn" stage of life.

Gonna wrap here and catch you all later in the week.