Weekend Wrap

The weekend ahead is the one of interest, so let's have at it...

Rory En Fuego - I saw exactly none of it, husbanding my strength for the week ahead.  But still, respect must be paid:

Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson shared the 54-hole lead at the RBC Canadian Open, but one player broke away from the pack on Sunday and made the battle for second place the most interesting race of the day. 

Who won: Rory McIlroy (nine-under 61, 22 under overall) 

How it happened: What was setting up to be a thrilling final round of the RBC Canadian Open quickly turned into a McIlroy victory parade at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. McIlroy birdied the first two holes and four of the first five, and he turned in five-under 30. Kuchar, who was among those tied with McIlroy before the round started, was in the group ahead of McIlroy, and even though Kuchar shot two under on the front he was three back when McIlroy made the turn. And McIlroy didn’t slow down on his second nine. He ripped off four straight birdies from Nos. 11-14 and pushed his lead to eight. McIlroy bogeyed the 16th but rebounded on 17, hitting a 341-yard drive and then knocking an iron to inside three feet for a kick-in eagle. McIlroy bogeyed the 18th, but the tournament was over hours earlier. Shane Lowry (67) and Simpson (68) tied for second at 15 under.

He apparently went 64-61 on the weekend, which I've found rarely hurts one's chances.  This, though, seems the optimistic scenario:

Why it matters: It’s McIlroy’s 16th PGA Tour win and first since his Players Championship victory in March. It’s also the perfect week of momentum heading into next week’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. McIlroy, already among the favorites to win at Pebble, is looking for his first major title since 2014. He won his only U.S. Open in 2011.

No doubt he's feeling pretty good about himself, and he certainly knows how to ingratiate himself with his hosts:

The last time we had this discussion, it concerned Brooks playing at Trinity Forest the week before Bethpage Black, and that worked out for the man.  There's an obvious tendency to over-interpret that which we saw most recently, though we'll get to Rory's chances at pebble soon enough.

In fact, no time like the present.....

All Things Pebble -  Yup, the Tour Confidential panel began their proceedings exactly where you'd expect:

1. Rory McIlroy breezed to a seven-shot win at the RBC Canadian Open with weekend rounds of 64 and 61, but Brooks Koepka has proven he’s still the man to beat at Pebble Beach. Or has he? Is McIlroy the new favorite for the U.S. Open, and how does Rory’s game suit Pebble Beach Golf Links? 

Sean Zak: Hooooo boy. It’s hard to look past that weekend Rors just had, but a Pebble Open just won’t play like the RBC Canadian. Sorry. Rory won’t be making 300 feet of putts at Pebble. If he strikes it like he did in Canada, yeah, he should contend, but this week is a different beast, and Brooks Koepka seems to have that figured out better than anyone. He’s still the man to beat. 

Alan Shipnuck: Both of their games are keyed by the driver, but they will largely have to holster theirs at Pebble, which with firm fairways will effectively play about 6,600 yards. Can either one of them separate themselves on this kind of finesse course? That would be massively impressive.

Yeah, but who do you like better at making the necessary adjustments?  The question answers itself, no?

Jeff Ritter: Rory is one of the few guys who can not only win a major, but win a major in a runaway. But his greatest major moments didn’t happen at setups like Pebble. (Also, they were, uh, five years ago.) He was awesome last weekend and he’s on the short list, but Brooks and DJ are still at the top for me. 

Michael Bamberger: New favorite same as the old: BK and the Sunshine Band. 

John Wood, PGA Tour caddie for Matt Kuchar: I think this tournament is wide open. Other than a couple of holes, I don’t think Pebble Beach can be set up as a bomber’s paradise. Will the driver be important? Of course. But I think we are going to see a leaderboard with every type of player imaginable. So yes, Brooks and Rory look great, but Pebble asks unique questions of you, and anyone on their game, long or short, can do well this week.

Jonathan Wall had some equipment changes for Rors that may be of interest to you:

Missing the cut at the Memorial turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Rory

McIlroy’s game, and quite possibly his chance at the U.S. Open as well. With a free weekend to prepare for the Canadian Open, McIlroy arrived at Hamilton Golf and Country Club and spent the early part of the week working with TaylorMade Tour rep Adrian Rietveld on his wedges. 

Since he signed with TaylorMade midway through 2017, McIlroy has mostly relied on a four-wedge setup due to his length, but has, on occasion, opted for just three wedges with larger loft gaps. Most recently, his preferred setup was just three wedges until last week when his work with Rietveld revealed a need for “calculated distance control” to not only handle Hamilton but Pebble Beach.

McIlroy went with a similar wedge setup to what he’s used in the past, removing a P750 3-iron to tighten the loft gaps from six degrees (48, 54 and 60) to just four degrees (48, 52, 56 and 60). McIlroy’s 48-degree pitching wedge is a raw Milled Grind while the 52-, 56- and 60-degree are Milled Grind Hi-Toe wedges.

With Pebble logically playing short, this seemingly makes all the sense in the world.  Yet Rory's signature shot has always been one that, wedge in hand, flies the green by 20-20 yards, so color me skeptical that he'll exhibit the necessary distance control on Pebble's tiny greens.

Care to guess the next subject for the TC panel?  No Einsteins require for that one:

2. The last time Tiger Woods played he tied for 9th at the Memorial, and we already know he’s gotten some early work in at Pebble Beach. Where does Tiger finish? 

Zak: Tiger finishes in the top 15, and let’s be honest, probably the top eight. We really have no reason to be worried about his game, and yes, I’ll own up to being critical of him after Bethpage. As colleague Dylan has said many times, he’ll manage his way thinking around this course better than 75 percent of the field. Or at least that’s how it seems, and I’ll gladly put my faith in that. 

Shipnuck: No reason he won’t be there til the bitter end. With its tiny greens, Pebble is the quintessential second-shot course, and Tiger remains the best iron player in the game. We know he’s mentally tough enough to survive the mental rigors of the Open. I like his chances. 

Ritter: This Open is suited for a wily veteran, and Tiger has so much course knowledge and previous success, you have to love his chances. But really, a second major title this season? I just don’t know if he can make enough putts on poa to punch through again. I think he’ll hang in the mix all week but never grab a solo lead, finishing somewhere around fifth.

Jeff, I'm a little confused here.  I had thought that the entire field would be putting those poa greens... 

Bamberger: Under par and in the hunt, but hard to see him shooting a lower score than Koepka here. 

Wood: He’ll be top five with a chance to win. I think he’s the best poa putter ever, and he’s mentally tough enough to handle when he hits great putts that don’t go in. Not everyone is wired to show that patience.

I always liked him more at Pebble than at Bethpage, even before the emotional win at Augusta.  Still, two in a year seems like a big ask...I'd also want to study a weather forecast, which I've not yet done, before going all in on the guy with the fused back.  Remember those marine layers from 2000?

What else do those guys want to talk about?

3. Koepka has a chance to win his third straight U.S. Open this week, Woods is returning to the home of his most dominant major victory, Phil is eyeing the grand slam (again), McIlroy couldn’t be hotter and the USGA’s setup will be under close watch by players. But what great storyline is no one talking about? 

Zak: Mr. Spieth. Rory burning down our golf neighbor to the north gave us another fun name to talk about, but for the last few weeks prior, we’d been discussing Spieth’s rise back to relevancy. Need I remind you he’s handled U.S. Opens before and he’s handled Pebble before. Will it click for four rounds?

That's why there's horse racing....  

Shipnuck: Dustin Johnson returning to the scene of the crime. It was his self-immolation on Sunday of the 2010 Open that began DJ’s star-crossed decade in the majors. He’s been right there at the last two – can he finally close the deal and begin rewriting his legacy?

The narrative going into that final round in 2010 was that DJ is too stupid to feel pressure.... That narrative failed to survive, but was further clarified during the final round of the PGA at Whistling Straits two months later.  It turns out to be quite the nuanced situation.  He is, in fact, as stupid as we thought, just apparently not the good type of stupid....

Ritter: The way guys are shooting the lights out at majors — even brutal Bethpage just surrendered a 63 to Koepka — I wonder if a bunch of scoring records might fall this week if the wind stays down. There have been six 63s at U.S. Opens, including one in each of the past two years. I’m watching for not only a 62, but maybe even 61. 

Bamberger: Koepka winning Stage II of the BK and the Sunshine Band Slam. 

Wood: Every time I’m at Pebble, at some point during the week I look around and say to myself, My god this is beautiful. This may be a milquetoast response, but that’s a story to me. Other than Augusta, it’s my favorite course to look around and think about the history of the place. Jack hitting the stick on 17 with a one-iron in ‘72. Tom holing the chip on 17 to edge Jack in ‘82, then turning to our old friend Bruce Edwards with that Huckleberry Finn grin, pointing and saying, “I told you!” Tiger playing golf at the highest level it’s ever been played for four days, and the look on his face when he was already leading by a hundred on Sunday, making a 12-footer for par on 16 like he’d just taken a one-shot lead. This is a Special place.

Pebble is beautiful.... I'll alert the media.

Let's dispense with the remainder of the panel's thoughts, shall we?

4. So much has been said about the USGA and its U.S. Open setups over the past few weeks — and we touched on that in this space last week as well — but how should the governing body set up Pebble Beach? And look into your crystal balls and make a prediction: Come Sunday night, will the USGA and its management of the event be a non-story, somewhat of a storyline of dominate the post-Open chatter? 

Shipnuck: I’ve been walking Pebble a lot in the last few weeks, often with my pooch, and the greens look mint. Can the USGA resist the urge to push the greens to the edge and compromise them? You have to think they’ve learned some hard lessons, but we say that every year. It was a wet(ish) spring so the course is very green and the rough extremely thick, as it should be. We’re presently having a mini-heat wave so the course is firm and fast. I am choosing to believe the USGA can’t screw this one up. 

Zak: Allow the rough to be your defense. Allow the wind to help out. Do not allow the short stuff to teeter on unplayable. I think it’s really as simple as that. Shots that find the short stuff should be rightfully rewarding. 

Ritter: Agreed with everything above. Make hitting fairways the first true test, and don’t take the greens to the edge. It’s a hard line to walk though, because like I said earlier, I could see a 62 if conditions are soft. Then what will everyone say about the USGA? 

Bamberger: Tight pins without going crazy, which you can do here better than most places. Also, let ‘em play. 

Wood: I think it’s going to be a classic U.S. Open. I don’t know why, I just have a really good feeling about the week from a setup point of view. Pebble Beach with a bit of wind, firm and fast, with 1/2-shot penalty for drives ending up in the rough is a pretty great formula. They USGA is due to hit one out of the park, and I think this is the week.

It's a tough question without knowing how much wind to expect....  Remember that Sunday in 1992.  

5. This is the sixth time that Pebble Beach has hosted a U.S. Open. Graeme McDowell won the last one in 2010, which followed Tiger’s triumph in 2000. (Pebble is also scheduled for the 2027 Open.) Where does Pebble Beach rank when it comes to the best U.S. Open venues? 

Shipnuck: Oakmont is probably the best pure Open venue, because of its long history and because it’s just so demanding on every shot. But given the beauty, the dramatic shot values, and the era-defining wins in ‘72, ‘82, ‘92 and ‘00, I put Pebble at the top of my list.

I'll stipulate to three of those (though '82 seems a stretch), but exactly what era did that 1992 event define?  Did I miss the Tom Kite era?  Hope it was good for everyone....

Zak: Maybe a couple places behind Erin Hi— JK! I LOVE when the United States Open visits a course EVERYONE in the United States can play. So give me Pebble and Pinehurst above all else. And you know what? Give me that course that the PGA of America won’t be able to host its premier event at anymore, Whistling Straits. For most folks, this event isn’t about that, but that’s what I like most about it. 

Ritter: Love Oakmont. Love Pinehurst. Shinny was cool. Hope someday to return to Chambers and Erin Hills. But Pebble ranks No. 1 for me. 

Bamberger: Pebble, Shinnecock Hills, Oakmont, 1, 2 and 3. 

Wood: I’m a NorCal guy, so for me, Pebble is No. 1. There’s a romance and a poetry to Pebble Beach that doesn’t exist at other U.S. Open venues. There are plenty of great courses in the rotation, but watching a champion being crowned walking up 18 with the waves crashing on the rocks and everyone a bit windburn in the salt air — I don’t know I just don’t think you can beat that.

One last bit, then we'll move on: 

6. The par-3 7th at Pebble Beach will get plenty of publicity. It’s the shortest hole on Tour, but is it the best short par-3 in the world? If not, what is?

 Bamberger: The 15th, Cypress Point Club. Because of the aroma, and the memories.

Mike, that's an awfully strong choice, it just makes me wistful about the days of yore, when it was part of the clambake.

Shipnuck: It’s probably the most fun, because of the setting, but unless the wind is really howling it’s a relatively easy par. I would vote for Augusta National’s 12th, because it’s so do-or-die and it comes at the perfect moment in the round.

Remember No. 7 on Sunday in '92?  Most of the guys ended up over by the 8th tee.... Of course, golf balls spun a lot more back then.

Zak: No. 11 at Shinnecock is harder than 12 at Augusta (I think?), so I’ll use that as my answer until I play Amen Corner. 

Wood: I’m with Ship here. If you get a 15-20 mph wind, and you’ve got to choose between sand wedge, pitching wedge, or maybe chip 9, it’s a handful. If you get a 30-mph wind and you’re guessing about chipping 7 or 8, it’s 109 yards of prayer. If it’s calm, there’s not much to it for the best players in the world. 

Ritter: Here’s the correct answer, the par-3 12th at Manele.

That's why I'm hoping for some wind.....  That 12th at Manele is pretty sweet, you'll not be surprised that it's where Bill Gates chose to get married.

Don't Know Much About History -  Now, where did I put those rose-colored glasses?  First, some reflections on that epic Tiger beatdown in 2000, leading with the conventional take:

The symmetry was sublime, the spectacle staggering. 

In the 100th edition of the U.S. Open, in his 100th tournament as a professional, Tiger

Woods delivered a tour de force in 2000. At the zenith of his powers, Woods, all of 24, left onlookers and his competitors in awe at Pebble Beach Golf Links, the spectacular theater along the California coastline. 

“What he did at Pebble Beach is still the greatest performance in golf of all time,” said five-time major champion Phil Mickelson, who tied for 16th that year. 

The performance was breathtaking, the numbers overwhelming. With rounds of 65-69-71-67, Woods finished 12 strokes under par and 15 shots clear of the field. 

His margin of victory – Miguel Angel Jimenez and Ernie Els tied for second at 3 over – broke the record for a major that was set during the Civil War, when Old Tom Morris beat just seven players by 13 shots in the 1862 British Open.

He won by fifteen.... make that FIFTEEN!, so far be it from me to diminish the accomplishment.  And yet, perhaps a Roger Maris asterisk is appropriate?  I know, heresy, but bear with me.  That specific year, 2000, was a watershed year fro our distance debate, but one guy got there first:

The Titleist Professional that Woods played at the 2000 Byron Nelson was the go-to ball

on the PGA Tour in those days. Its liquid-filled core and wound construction closely resembled the venerable brand’s Tour Balata, but an Elastomer cover reduced the excessive wear and tear that the balata-covered version suffered at the hands of the world’s fastest impact speeds. Players routinely used a balata ball for only three holes before discarding it because of all the scuff marks, rotating three new balls per nine holes. The Titleist Professional was the best of both worlds. 

The prototype of the Nike Tour Accuracy, like the player pushing its development, was a tiger of a different stripe—a three-piece ball of solid construction, with a molded rubber core injected with synthetic material, and a multilayer, urethane cover. In the prototype phase, the goal was to create a ball that offered the feel and performance Tour players were accustomed to, but with substantially less spin and more speed than a wound ball.

See where this is headed?

“He liked the ball, but we were just waiting at that point,” Devlin says. “There was no indication he was going to use it during the 2000 season.”

Until there was....  So, one guy at that 2000 Open was playing a solid core golf ball, and he lapped the field.   

“He was consistently longer across the board with the ball,” says the source, who

requested anonymity. “Seven yards with the long and middle irons, three yards with the wedges. The ball was much stronger into the wind, but Tiger was used to seeing consistent flight and distance.” 

Two weeks later, at the U.S. Open at Pebble, Woods cast aside his concerns and pushed the pedal to the floor in an opening-round 65. The next day serious gusts kicked up off the Pacific, and while the field reeled, Woods flighted darts all day. He led by six after 36 holes, and when he finished the week he was 15 strokes clear of the field. He had set or tied nine U.S. Open records, and won the first of four consecutive majors. And he did it all with a new ball that seemed impervious to the wind and rain.

And by no means are we finished explaining historical anomalies... For instance, unless he was also on HGH at the time, this guy came from nowhere in that 1998 season, no?

Being first out of the gate doesn’t always guarantee success, especially in the equipment industry. If that was the case, Top-Flite’s Strata Tour would’ve lapped the field, with Mark O’Meara leading the way. O’Meara embraced Top-Flite’s solid-core ball three years prior to Woods making the jump, and won seven times worldwide, including the Masters and British Open during the 1998 season, at the age of 41.

That's new to me, and offers a possible explanation for a year entirely inconsistent with the remainder of O'Meara's career.

 It didn't do Nike much good either:

The ball that almost changed the game wasn’t quite the commercial success it potentially could have been. According to Devlin, the goal was to use the momentum from Woods’s historic U.S. Open win as leverage to wrest away significant market share from Titleist. However, Nike didn’t have a way to manufacture their own golf balls in-house, which meant there was no existing supply to meet demand. “We couldn’t get production ramped up and the ball to market until October, maybe November of 2000,” Devlin said.

Even if the ball had been in full production, Titleist was an imposing competitor and a highly innovative company in its own right. While Nike was prepping its sales reps for a fall run, Titleist had been quietly developing the Pro V1 for five years. It had a solid core surrounded by Surlyn casing, a 392-dimple icosahedral design and a homegrown urethane cover that doubled as a veneer. The damned thing practically sparkled.

It really complicates the narrative, no?   So much of Tiger's case for being the GOAT rests on those dominating wins (at St. Andrews by eight shots a month after Pebble), and yet he had a distinct advantage over the field.... No way to guess what that might have been worth.

Changing tracks, Shack makes an impassioned case for the historical importance of the 1929 U.S. Amateur:

Convene a group of golf geeks to debate seminal moments in American golf, and you know the likely nominees. There will be Ouimet’s win at Brookline, Jones taking the

grand slam at Merion, the 1960 U.S. Open at Cherry Hills and a few nominations for the 1986 and 1997 Masters. 

One event won’t get a mention, but it forever shaped the American game: the 1929 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach. 

Ninety years ago, that championship was played just over a month before the market crashed, spawned national headlines and changed the course of golf history. The winner received a ticker tape parade. Bobby Jones, the favorite, was prevented from winning three in a row but ventured off to play the courses of his eventual co-designer for Augusta National. The 1929 U.S. Amateur also introduced the country to golf west of the Mississippi on a course that would become America’s national golfing treasure. And in one last odd twist, it fueled Jack Nicklaus’ mastery of Pebble Beach in his 1961 and 1972 wins there.

Geoff does a fine job with the tangle architectural history, the primitive original Neville-Grant routing, and the cameo appearance by Dr. Mackenzie.  But that which we know as Pebble is the work of Chandler Egan:

Lapham then tapped amateur golfing great Chandler Egan, an emerging architect who was not nearly as accomplished as MacKenzie or Hunter, to head the group, with superintendent Joe Mayo rounding out the committee. 

Egan, however, was a man of undisputed character with an astounding resume likely to charm the USGA: Harvard graduate who led the Crimson to three NCAA team championships and one individual title; winner of back-to back U.S. Amateurs; gold (team) and silver (individual) Olympic medalist in golf at the 1904 St. Louis Games; a lifelong amateur golfer who retired after a 1909 U.S. Amateur finals loss to buy an apple and pear orchard in Oregon, only to be lured out of competitive retirement in 1914. 

Egan jumped into the task, setting up shop on site to transform the rudimentary design into a strategic and aesthetic masterpiece. He penned stories leading into the 1929 U.S. Amateur and then proceeded to qualify for the Round of 32, knocking off George Von Elm, the 1926 U.S. Amateur winner and last person to beat Jones heading into the Pebble Beach major.

But here's the case for historical significance:

On the other side of the draw, Jones was upset by 19-year-old Johnny Goodman in the first round of match play. The loss, which brought out big, bold headlines on sports pages and ended a remarkable streak in the U.S. Amateur of three wins and a finalist appearance of four years, allowed Jones to play at opening day of Pasatiempo. He was invited by founder Marion Hollins, who had developed and hosted Jones at nearby Cypress Point. 

MacKenzie tagged along and just three years later, their co-design of Augusta National opened. It’s safe to say the train trip out West was not a waste of Jones’ time.

It all kind of worked out...

Shack also links to this wonderful gallery of photos from that event:

And to think that the USGA was worried about the remote location deterring spectators.

And, as relates to the most recent installment, Golf Digest reminds us of all sorts of things long since memory-holed:

1.) McDowell broke a loooong European drought

McDowell's win kicked off a run on majors by players from Northern Ireland as Rory McIlroy (2011 U.S. Open, 2012 and 2014 PGA, 2014 Open Championshpi) and Darren Clarke (2011 Open Championship) followed suit. But amazingly, he was the first golfer from anywhere in Europe to win the U.S. Open since Tony Jacklin in 1970. Making that stat even more amazing is the fact that Europeans, including McIlroy the following year at Congressional, won three of the next four U.S. Opens as well. And, of course, there's the fact they always win the Ryder Cup.

Thirty years without a Euro winner of the U.S. Open, then two Ulstermen (Population: 1.9 million people) go back-to-back....Crazy game.

As for this, I'm not sure he's referencing the latest meaning:

12.) Matt Kuchar was already doing Matt Kuchar things

I actually do remember this:

16.) But not as badly as one group the week before

Remember the Golf Digest Challenge? I do, because I was there for the third and final

installment, which happened the prior week at Pebble. Wayne Gretzky, Mark Wahlberg, Drew Brees, and contest winner Peggy Ference teed it up from the tips and the results were about as ugly as you'd expect. Keeping score was so tough that The Great One, who holed a bunker shot on No. 7 then shanked his tee shot on No. 8, initially thought he'd shot his jersey number before being told it was actually an even 100. Wahlberg wound up being the only player to break 100 on a day when a pre-Masters winning Bubba Watson and a pre, well, Rickie Fowler were caddies. Good times.

That was an early Get Woke - Go Broke moment.  They had two prior installments of this event featuring men, triggered by a Tiger comment speculating about what a ten-handicap might have shot at Oakmont.  The guys at Golf Digest are by no means supporters of the patriarchy, so opted to send a woman out in this installment.  The poor girl couldn't even reach some of the fairways, and it was far too painful to watch her suffering.

see, now you do know much about history, and you're more than welcome.

We Know - I quite agree with this:

U.S. Open 2019: The numbers don't lie—Pebble Beach is Phil Mickelson's last shot 

A statistical breakdown suggests Phil could finally complete the career Grand Slam at Pebble Beach

I don't love him this week, given his bad recent form and pre-tourney comment.  But this seems a better fit than Winged Foot, even ignoring the effect of turning fifty.

Then there is his age. The Open Championship will entertain an elder statesman in contention; but not the American variety. Only twice has a player older than 35 won in this millennium. 

There will be more chances, but Winged Foot will be too long, its greens too complex, in 2020, and the rough at 2021 U.S. Open host Torrey Pines has become so brutal that Mickelson has stopped playing the Farmers Insurance Open, his hometown event.

In short, this appears to truly be Mickelson's last shot. 

The idea that the 28th time's the charm for Mickelson seems farfetched. Yet, while despair appears on the horizon, the stats prove divinity remains in play.

OK, but all those stats were compiled in the far softer conditions of the Clambake.  But he grew up on poa, so if he can keep his ball in play off the tee...

I'll leave some things for tomorrow, and let you get on with your day.