The State of the Ball

I picked a bad week to quit smoking, as that USGA-R&A Distance Report is out, and.... well, you can hang on to those ProV1's for now.

The Report - It was shocking that our games' governing bodies failed to check my travel schedule before releasing their results, but here are the headlines:

Hinted at in increasing intensity over the last year until bubbling over in the last few weeks, it became official today: Golf’s ruling bodies are officially concerned about

driving distance. 

The USGA and R&A released their third annual report on driving distance across golf’s professional tours, and the report’s message was succinct. Unlike comments from the associations’ two leaders in recent months, however, it did not indicate any clear movement toward a distance rollback. 

“The 2015 and 2016 editions of the distance report presented the increases in driving distance since 2003 as a slow creep of around 0.2 yards per year,” the report’s preamble reads. “The 2017 data shows a deviation from this trend. The average distance gain across the seven worldwide tours was more than 3 yards since 2016.

Now, this isn't about a mere three yards, is it?  Of course not, but a three-yard increase across seven tours isn't chopped liver.  One of the games these folks have always played is to break the increases down into annual totals, making each year's increase seem diminimous, and never getting around to the discussion of the cumulative changes.

And there was this little margin of error note:

As noted in previous annual reports, variability in driving distance of 4 or more yards from season to season on any one tour is not uncommon.

The solution?  Those of you that had "more conversation" in the office pool can collect your winnings:

As stated in the Monday report: "Building on the extensive research we have undertaken in recent years, we will conduct a thoughtful conversation about the effects of distance prior to making any specific proposals. We remain open-minded and our absolute priority is to ensure that all key stakeholders are involved in an open and inclusive process, and that we move forward together in the best interests of golf at all levels. There is no fixed timetable, but we will commence this process immediately and endeavor to reach a conclusion as promptly as possible."

The USGA included this chart in their report:

Here's a pro tip for y'all....  When you see such a chart, the first question should be "What's the significance of the 2003 starting date?"  I learned that little trick from Michael Mann and his famous, albeit discredited, hockey stick graph.  Pay no attention to that Little Ice Age.....

My point being that the ProV1 was introduced in 2000 and gained quick acceptance, and we can logically assume that rather substantial distance gains were already in the bank by the time they start their data set....

Just as an aside, they present this graph for the hackers, broken into handicap classes:

1996, huh?  Any chance you could show me the Pro Tours' data starting in 1996?  I didn't think so...

The Rebuttals - Hope you have a little time....

PGA Tour Commish Jay Monahan penned a note to his players, and noted that they sure do look fine...  Think I'm kidding?

- From 2003 to 2017, average driving distance on the PGA TOUR has increased by

2.3%, or a total of 6.6 yards. 

- From 2016 to 2017, there was an increase of 2.5 yards in average driving distance. While this may seem significant when taken in isolation, it has not been uncommon over the past 15 years to see significant gains or losses. Since 2003, there have been three instances where a significant gain was recorded between years, and five instances where the average decreased. 

- Since 2007, when we started monitoring launch conditions each week on TOUR, average club head speed has increased by 1.5 mph. There is a strong correlation between club head speed and the total distance gains seen since 2003. We believe this increase in club head speed is mostly attributable to a combination of factors, such as increased player athleticism and fitness, physical build of the player, enhancements in equipment fitting and the proliferation of launch-monitoring capabilities.

And this killer argument:

It is interesting to note that since 2003, the average age of a TOUR member has gone down, and the average height has gone up.

Thanks for noticing, Jay.   You have no idea how hard it is to walk around in these lifts....

But your argument is a bit strange, no?  No one disputes that the distance gains are the result of a wide range of factors, in fact we had Alan Shipnuck and Shack giving their off-the-cuff allocations to these factors just a couple of days ago.  But I'm also guessing that baseball players go to the gym and work on their launch angles and the like.... Yet they can still play at Fenway and Wrigley?

Next up is everyone's favorite ball manufacturer, or as I like to think of them,the ox most likely to be gored.  Just a little joke, as I actually think very little would change, but given their control of the ball market, it's understandable why they'd be resistant to change.  

Here's Shack's preamble:

It's always a fascinating thing to watch a company advertising more distance and then arguing against distance gains taking place. But I digress... 

Noteworthy here is the CEO of Titleist making a more restrained argument than the PGA Tour Commissioner, and even a less misleading case than the PGA of America CEO in communicating his organization's likely stance on something not even proposed by the USGA and R&A.

We'll get to the PGA of America in a bit, but here's the take of Uihleinistas:

• At the 33 PGA Tour events conducted at the same venue in 2016 and 2017, where data was collected, the average driving distance increased +0.5 yards. At the eight events held 

at new venues in 2017, the average distance increased +8.0 yards.

• Of these 33 PGA Tour events conducted at the same venue, 15 tournaments had a decline in average driving distance with one event flat to prior year. This highlights the year to year variability in distance.

• The major championships conducted at new venues represented one-third of the total average driving distance gained in 2017: U.S. Open (Erin Hills vs. Oakmont +20.4 yards), Open Championship (Royal Birkdale vs. Royal Troon +8.1 yards) and PGA Championship (Quail Hollow vs. Baltusrol +7.0 yards).

 That's all well and good.  But... Shack had this chart in his post, the origins of which I don't know:

You see the issue with that 2003 start date?  But, before you take comfort from the relatively small gains in recent years, let's remember that the guys are hitting fewer drives these days.  There's always much that's buried in the date sets, but due to agronomy (The Masters famously mows the grass back towards the tees) set-up and the placement of hazards, to my eyes the guys are hitting it further with the big dog, but hitting it less frequently.  I'd love to have a pure data set of driver distance....

The Pre-Rebuttal - Pete Bevaqua doesn't take chances....  He's dead set against that which hasn't yet been proposed.  Oh, he starts off judiciously enough:

Having just received the full report last evening, it is difficult for us at the PGA of America to provide meaningful comments on its content at this time.

But, meaningful is in the eyes of the beholder, because he doesn't leave it there:

However, given the recent industry discussions and media reports regarding a potential roll back of the golf ball for all players and/or a segment of elite players, our Board of Directors has discussed this topic at length. Based on the information we have seen, we are highly skeptical that rolling back the golf ball in whole or part will be in the best interests of the sport and our collective efforts to grow the game. Our nearly 29,000 PGA Professionals would be at the forefront of implementing this potential roll back, so we will be polling them this week to fully understand their perspective, especially on what it would mean for the vast majority of the golfers they serve. We look forward to offering our candid feedback to the USGA and R&A once we have collected that data and reviewed the full report."-Pete Bevacqua, CEO, PGA of America

Shack had this in response:

The absurdity here is both evident and profoundly pathetic: PGA of America CEO issues a statement opposed to any kind of golf ball rollback when no such thing has yet been proposed in the latest distance report, and then declares his membership of 29,000 professionals will be polled with what sounds like a misleading question to validate the PGA of America's opposition to the rulemakers even considering any action.

I know these wars have to happen every ten years, but boy does this signal a conclusion before a solution was even suggested.

True enough, though I have a different reaction...  While his organization is obviously among  what Shack and others refer to as The Five Families, This is the group least involved with the highest level of the professional game.  They run one reasonably important championship in each of the three major U.S. tours, but that's about all.  While we certainly want all "stakeholders" involved, this feels to me like Pete screaming "Don't forget about us".

Other Reactions - First, Geoff posts video of Tom Watson on this subject.  He specifically cites 2001-2003 as when things spun out of control.

A few other players have chimed in, and as before I'm actually less dismissive of them than Geoff.  For instance, Lucas has me nodding my head:

Yes, we'll get to the solutions in a bit, but very much like anchoring the governing bodies are addressing this way after the horse is out of the barn.  That's not an argument for doing nothing, but we've made it that much harder on ourselves.

This Golf Channel debate among Shack, Jaime Diaz and Matt Adams had me laughing out loud, but for all the wrong reasons.  Matt simply refuses to accept the others' premise that we're talking bifurcation, advocating adamantly for the 99%.  Jaime tells him that no one is talking about a roll-back for the masses, though I'd argue that Mike Davies has muddied that water quite a bit.  Guys arguing can be good TV, but you'd think they'd at least have them arguing about the same thing....

What Is To Be Done?  Those of you that put your shekels on nothing, seem to be in pretty strong position right now.  Golf.com convened a special Tour Confidential panel on this subject, so shall we tag along?

1. The USGA and R&A released their latest distance report Monday, which showed that driving distance across the seven major professional tours increased by three yards in 2017. This is a marked jump from 2015 and '16, which showed an increase of 0.2 yards per year. The report said, "This level of increase across so many tours in a single season is unusual and concerning and requires closer inspection and monitoring to fully understand the causes and effects." Does the spike concern you?

Michael Bamberger: It’s not the spike. It’s the overall pattern since 1980. All sports evolve. Golf has changed too much. 

Alan Shipnuck,: More monitoring? Oh joy. Haven’t they already been studying this issue for years/decades? I’m exhausted. 

Dylan Dethier: It concerns me because it pushes the golf world closer to fixing a problem for which there is no clean solution. Change is hard!

All sports evolve, but golf is the only game where the player brings his own ball.  Or in my case, balls....

But this is my fave here:

Josh Sens: I don’t want to torture an analogy or overstate the importance of the distance issue, but there are elements here that remind me of the climate change debate. Most people looking at facts have known for a long time that it’s a runaway problem. But the official response is mostly just talk. Big financial interests are at stake, of course, further complicating any plan of action. A gloom-and-doomer might take the view that we’re beyond the tipping point, too late to go back.

Great minds truly think alike.... As my Mama taught me, figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Best part?  That makes Pete, Jay and Wally deniers.  Oops, make that Deniers.

​2. The governing bodies said that they don’t yet intend to take any action on the findings or make any recommendations to the key stakeholders. "Building on the extensive research we have undertaken in recent years, we will conduct a thoughtful conversation about the effects of distance prior to making any specific proposals," the report said. In your mind, is it time to take action — and, if so, what kind of action?

Bamberger: This is my war cry: a limited-flight distance ball for the four majors, made by all the manufacturers. Leave everything else alone. Golf takes its cues, often, from the four majors. 

Shipnuck: The time to take action was around the turn of the century, when solid core balls and launch monitors and Tiger’s gym routine began fundamental changes in the game. It’s waaaay too late now — any change that is made will damage the game. With all due respect to Bamby, that’s a horrible idea. Suddenly we’re going to make the game’s most important tournaments fundamentally different than all the others? Doing nothing means every classic course is way too short to be a real test. Bifurcating will harm the equipment industry, which is built on the FOMO of us wanting to play what the pros do. Dialing back the ball could kill fan interest in the PGA Tour and make the game even less fun for the rest of us, because we all dig the long ball. It’s a mess.

For those non-millennials in my readership, FOMO means fear of missing out.  Don't feel bad, I had to Google it as well.

I think it was Alan who recently said, "I don't want to see Dustin hitting it 270, because I can do that myself".  I always knew that chicks dig the long ball, but so does everyone else apparently.

Here's one more response of interest:

Dethier: As Shipnuck has demonstrated, there's no silver bullet here. The best solution? Don’t roll back the ball — going backward doesn't work. Do what you can to keep the ball from flying any further, and adjust as nuked drives dictate. The Tour courses will continue to grow, which is a necessary evil, and if that means a couple 9,000-yarders, so be it! But every other course in the world should resist the urge to pretend that they’ll one day host a pro event. At this point, it’s easier to bifurcate the courses than the golf ball (although I realize that means bad news for classic tracks).

OK, Dylan, but how did that bifurcation of golf course work out back in the day?  And what kind of course are the going to build on the South Side of Chicago?  And how do we get the budding pros from our 6,500 yard tracks to the 9,000 yarders of the elite game?  It's just no more practical than any of the other suggestions.

I take the thoughts of a guy like Alan very seriously, that rollback will hurt the game more than the status quo.  But it will never get easier to do something, and that 9,000 yard future seems unappealing, as is Driver-Wedge on 500-yard golf holes.

Since it appears that nothing can or will be done, I'll just leave you with Geoff's amusing take on the infighting among the Five Families:

Monday March 5th, 2018 may end up being the day that the PGA Tour, PGA of America 

and various shills boxed the governing bodies and Masters into a distance solution that they'll hate. Only time will tell who wins a war as brazen as shooting The Don while he's patronizing a fruit stand. 

But as Clemenza explained to Michael in The Godfather, apparently these silly wars are necessary ever ten years.

That Clemenza was quite the good stick back in the day.