Monday, March 24, 2025

Weekend Wrap - Snakebit Edition

No, not JT and his Snake Pit follies... Your humble blogger took a cheap, gratuitous swipe at a certain Norwegian golfer mired in desultory play.  Do I get results, or what?

The schedule for the neat-term is clear....there will be no blogging until the middle of next week.  Employee No. 2 and I are taking a quick, season-ending trip to Utah, then it officially transitions to golf season.  Sit tight, it's not like anything important will happen in Houston.

Back From The Dead - I've been of the opinion until yesterday that Viktor would not even be at Bethpage, so that will of course change.  But the winner doesn't seem to be declaring victory, does he?

When he turned up on the first tee Thursday at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, the 27-year-old Norwegian star was fresh off three consecutive missed cuts and wracked by deepening self-doubt.

“When you have no confidence and you don’t believe you’re going to play well that’s pretty tough,” Hovland said.

It was Sunday afternoon, and Hovland was speaking to the cameras in the incredulous tone of a man trying to wrap his head around what had just transpired.

Moments earlier, with a tap-in bogey on 18, he had completed a 4-under round of 67 to claim his first victory since the 2023 Tour Championship. He won the 2023 BMW Championship the week before. His 11-under total for the week put him one shot clear of Justin Thomas, who had surged to a three-shot lead with four holes remaining but slipped down the stretch while Hovland birdied two of his final three holes. Jacob Bridgeman finished in solo third, two off the pace at 9-under.

“It’s unbelievable to see that I could win,” Hovland said. “Because I honestly did not believe that I could do it this week.”

His lack of faith was based on mounting evidence, including a dispiriting showing at last week’s Players Championship, where he shot an 80 in the opening round. Battling his mechanics and his mindset, Hovland was an 11th-hour entry into the Valspar.

On a tight, tree-lined course that ranks among the toughest venues on Tour, Hovland leaned on his iron game to overcome an inconsistent driver — “I am still hitting a lot of disgusting shots,” he said— and scrape his way into a tie for the 54-hole lead. Even then, he wasn’t sure what to expect on Sunday.

I'm pleased to report that Luke Donald is once again able to get oxygen into his lungs.... At this juncture it would be hard to identify a player more important to Luke.  Their roster is so thin that one more stud makes an outsized difference, at least in the team play.

The Tour Confidential panel is of course around to add their invaluable insights ensure that your humble blogger can phone it in:

Viktor Hovland beat Justin Thomas by one to win the Valspar Championship on Sunday, his first victory since he won the BMW Championship and Tour Championship back to back in August 2023. It had been a struggle for him since then, and he missed his last three cuts entering this week. What was the difference at the Valspar? And are you a believer that he’s back? Or do you need to see more?

Josh Sens: It’s hard to believe he’s really back when Hovland himself doesn’t seem to think he is.
By his own admission, he is still hitting a lot of what he calls “disgusting” shots. But this week, he managed his game beautifully, especially down the stretch, leaning on his iron game and coming up clutch with the putter. I don’t mean to minimize the win. Winning any tournament is no small feat. But golf is just too fickle–and Hovland himself seems so committed to constant tinkering–to use this week as a predictor of what’s coming next.

Zephyr Melton: Echoing what Sens said above. Hovland won’t be fully “back” until he feels like he has full control of his swing. Sure he won this week, but it doesn’t sound like he’s content with where his game is at. This week is a great step in the right direction, but Hovland’s swing is far from a finished product.

Josh Berhow: He hit some really key irons late — which is exactly where he’s supposed to excel — to set up his last two birdies, but difficult to say this will turn the tide given how transparent he was afterward. His confidence doesn’t seem high — he did just shoot 80 last week — and he seemed surprised to win this thing. But a win like this might do wonders, so perhaps this is just the start of a string of strong finishes and a little more belief.

Next up, how many angels exactly can fit on the head of a pin....  I just don't know how to argue that he can win but isn't "back", whatever that might mean.  To me, though, the takeaway is how narrow the gap is between dominance and futility, yet we keep trying to pick based upon current form.

And talk about your angels on the head of pins...

Thomas held a two-stroke lead late but missed fairways and bogeyed 16 and 18. As someone who hasn’t won since May 2022, is he the headlining pro who needs one most? Or does that honor belong to someone else — Homa? Spieth? etc. — on the PGA Tour?

Sens: Thomas may be in a victory drought, but he’s also won more times (15) than any player other except Rory since 2016. Getting this close has got to feel promising for him on some level. I’d give the “honor” to Spieth, who has been winless for even longer than Thomas, and has arguably fallen farther from his peak than his good friend.

Melton: JT may be in a winless drought, but his game is in a far better spot than Homa and, to a lesser extent, Spieth. I’m sure he’d much rather be holding a trophy tonight rather than stewing on the “what-ifs,” but he’s not nearly as lost as those other two. The next JT win feels close.

Berhow: I’d argue Homa needs it most right now, since he is currently in a very similar spot to Viktor (before he won Sunday). Thomas and Spieth have winless streaks extending a little longer than Homa, although Thomas seems close. Few guys have the firepower he does when he’s on. He barely made the cut at the Valspar and fought to the top of the leaderboard. I think good things are coming for him.

It's a fun question, but I'm not inclined to venture too deep into the long grass.  Spieth's last spiral down was at least in part injury-related, Homa and Hovland have been so futile that they weren't even sniffing cuts, but we see how quickly that can swing.  Spieth and Homa might prove to be dilemmas for Keegan, but there's so much golf to come that it's not worth diving in this early.

I do want to add, though, that I hope Viktor had words to this effect in his post-win presser:

"I'd Like to thank Justin Thomas, without whom this wouldn't have been possible."

Explanation here. 

I have a couple of submissions for shot of the week, first from Billy Ho:

Made the putt for birdie as well.

And Patton Kizzire:

Very impressive hang time...

And let's not forget Adam Hadwin:

Of course, as regular readers of this blog will know, that last guy needs to be careful because he's married to the best Twitter-slinger on Tour:

Girl. Got. Game.  The TC guys had some fun with two of these (and I could have also included Sahith Theegala):

Who had the best — or most cringeworthy — anger-management moment at the Valspar? Patton Kizzire’s putter punt or Adam Hadwin’s sprinkler mishap?

Sens; Kizzire’s putter punt was a novel move. At least, I’d never seen one like it before. But for keystone cop comedy and comeuppance, I give the nod to Hadwin triggering the sprinkler’s wrath.

Melton: The putter punt was great theater, but certainly some embarrassing behavior coming from a seasoned Tour pro. Hadwin’s sprinkler mishap seemed more like bad luck than anything else. I’ll give an honorable mention to Spieth for unleashing an aggressive f-bomb on Saturday. He got his money’s worth with that one.

Berhow: The PPP — Patton Putter Punt — had impressive hang time. He’s gonna shank that thing more times than not. If you are going to punt a putter, you better make good contact. He did. Hadwin’s was definitely more embarrassing.

Thank God the boys were acting up a wee bit, otherwise it would have been a dreary week.  

Before we move on, a quickie Florida-swing summary:

The Florida swing is officially over. What did you learn?

Sens: That Rory McIlroy is going to win the Masters. (or not).

Melton: Rory is still a dog and Russell Henley is going to be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team. Plus, I learned who Joe Highsmith was!

Berhow: Scottie Scheffler is not yet 100 percent following the hand injury. When will he be, and how much can he win when he’s not 100 percent? These are questions we don’t have answers to yet.

I certainly agree that Scheffler's play has made me wonder if there's any lingering effects to the injury, but perhaps his roiling frustration is the bigger surprise.  Rory feels like the only top player who has shown any form, but is that a good thing for him?  Or he is he better  off coming in just above the tree line....

It Would Take A Heart Of Stone... - It just so happens that I have this tab open forever:

Sergio Garcia is willing to jump through countless hoops for chance to play in one more Ryder Cup

 At a certain point he was willing to do anything except pay those DP World Tour fines, though that has seemingly now been done:

Still, none of that is deterring the 2017 Masters champion. Before playing this week in the PIF Saudi International, Garcia re-joined the DP World Tour and paid all of the fines levied on him when he played in LIV events directly opposite of those on what was, for most of his career, his home circuit. That left him only needing to serve nine weeks of suspension from events on the European Tour. By his own reckoning, Garcia will be unable to play in a DP World Tour event until the Bahrain tournament at the end of next month.

That item dates back to early December, the implication being that he might have gotten in more starts had he not dawdled in paying those fines.   So, perhaps with some strong starts in those events he can play himself into the Majors....  Oops!

Sergio Garcia came to Macau this weekend looking to play his way into “his favorite” major. In the end, a three-foot birdie putt stood between Garcia and a spot in the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush.

But golf is a brutal sport. Garcia missed the short putt and left the Asian Tour’s International Series Macau event with a fourth-place finish and not much else.

While Garcia failed to qualify for the Open via a top-three finish in Macau, his fellow LIV mates Carlos Ortiz (first), Patrick Reed (second) and Jason Kokrak (third) all punched their ticket to Portrush. Garcia’s three-foot birdie putt on the last would have had him finish tied with Kokrak and earn the final spot in the Open via a countback system based on his world rankings points. Garcia is currently 513 in the world, while Kokrak is 775 due to LIV’s inability to earn Official World Golf Rankings points at LIV events.

Patrick vs. Sergio?  Man, talk about a devil's dilemma....

But the idea of Sergio paying those fines and not making the Ryder Cup team brings a smile to my face.... Although Sergio back at Bethpage could be good fun as well.

Eamon's Take - the incendiary Eamon Lynch assesses the current state of PGA Tour-LIV negotiations with his characteristic astute eye.  His header will point you towards his thinking:

Lynch: If the PGA Tour wants reunification, it should do one thing — wait

Eamon's discussion of the party of the second part is, methinks, the most interesting part thereof:

A month has passed since the White House meeting that was expected to deliver a deal, but which instead produced a barely civil face-off. The Tour presented a proposal valuing LIV at $500 million, a comically generous grant for an entity that spends cash faster than a returning submarine crew in a brothel (though at least the sailors get something in return). PIF’s governor, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, was insulted by that assessment and the summit resulted in a setback rather than a settlement.

There are several possible reasons for Al-Rumayyan’s obstinacy. Perhaps he felt ambushed in Washington. Maybe he’s facing pressure at home and is desperate to show a win. Or pride got the better of him. Or he believes the fee-taking leeches who assure him that he’s created a revolutionary product with a lucrative future. Or he knows that entering LIV into any kind of investment partnership will crystalize his multi-billion dollar folly.

The other day, I asked an insider about Al-Rumayyan’s stiff-arming proposal after proposal from the Tour (PIF hasn’t submitted a single overture of its own during the negotiation process). “Will there ever be a day of reckoning?” came the reply. “Really, I can’t think of anyone who’s been lied to more than him. That the idea was good. That the product is good. That it’s going really well. He needs someone he trusts to tell him the truth, that it’s just not working.”

OK, are you finished laughing yet?  There is no doubt something profound in Eamon's take, but there's also some huge gaps.  I was reminded of that laughable Kinsey Report, which made Al-Rumayyan look like a guy that wanted to be lied to.  Or, more likely, wanted to do what he wanted to do, and just needed something in the file to support it like any mid-level bureaucrat.

Whatever governs the governor’s attitude, sentiment has hardened across the table. Rising broadcast ratings and a run of sponsors re-upping have restored a little swagger to the formerly defensive PGA Tour. Fear of Al-Rumayyan’s checkbook is lessened too. LIV hasn’t signed any major talent since Jon Rahm 16 months ago, and the only three players who could impact things — Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler — are not only staying put, but have made public comments that were at best lukewarm about the prospect of a deal. A year ago the foremost question for the Tour was how to stem the erosion of its product, now that question is what can actually be gained from a PIF deal at all?

The answer, of course, is money and power, which is what executives really mean when they talk about the “reunification” of golf, even as they frame it as something fans demand. Both tours — PGA and DP World — want Saudi investment dollars and they don’t want the major championships to hold all the influence, which has been the by-product of the best players only competing against each other four times a year. Comrades Monahan and Kinnings can’t be thrilled to see assets developed on their circuits largely being used to benefit four other organizations.

I believe Eamon grossly overstates the positives in that first 'graph.  The ratings look good mostly in comparison to a dreadful 2024 ( in at least some weeks they've been below 2023's numbers), and there has been some decent sponsorship action as well.

Eamon states that they want Saudi cash, but my thoughts are that they might well need Saudi cash, as the one critical data point neither of us has access to is the Tour's burn rate.  My operative assumption is they bur through SSG's $1.5 billion large quicker than we can imagine....

But let me also focus you on that last bit from Eamon, which I think is critical The LIV confrontation has exposed the vulnerability of the Tour, which is perceived as the most important golf Tour on the planet, but doesn't actually control the four most important weeks of the year.  Tat's a profoundly week position, but Eamon is correct that the civil war in golf has only enhanced to position of those four other organizations.  Ironic that, eh?

Exit Strategy - Far too early for this, and yet....

We’ll get into Masters storylines and picks more in the coming weeks, but with a hat tip to March Madness tipping off, who is your early Cinderella pick for Augusta National?

Sens: I wouldn’t exactly call it a Cinderella pick, but Joaquin Niemann, LIV’s hottest player this season, would count as something of an upstart win.

Melton: I need to see a top 20 in a major from Niemann (he still doesn’t have one!) before I start picking him. I’ll keep showing love to Russell Henley. Two major top 10s to cap last season and an API win already this year. As they say, he’s trending.

Berhow: I love Niemann at Augusta, but since he’s already taken, how about Keegan Bradley as a long shot? Hasn’t missed a cut in seven starts this season. Five times, he’s been 20th or better. Not a ton of success at Augusta, but he’s finished T22 and T23 in his last two starts. There’s lots to like for someone you can find at +18000 to win. Plus, Bradley contending would make for juicy Ryder Cup captaincy storylines.

Hold on just a second.  You're picking the best player in the world as your Cinderella?  because we know he wouldn't lie to us... 

We'll get to Augusta in due course.... Have a great week.

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