Monday, August 19, 2024

Weekend Wrap - Memphis In August Edition

 April seems so awfully far away.... At least there was that one event this week that actually mattered.

Spain Ascendant - Given the profound legacy of Spanish golf, it's shocking to note that no Spaniard had ever even reached a U.S. Amateur final.  Yet that all-Spaniard semi-final led this man (on the day he assumed adulthood) to achieve that which Seve, Jose Maria, Sergio and Rahmbo did not:

Josele Ballester is like many Spanish golfers who have grown up idolizing the greats from their country.

On Sunday, Ballester did something none of those before him have been able to accomplish: win the U.S. Amateur.

Ballester, the rising senior at Arizona State, dominated throughout the day then held on late against Noah Kent to capture the Havemeyer Trophy at Hazeltine National Golf Club. Ballester led 4 up with six holes to play, but by the time he was on the 17th tee, his lead was down to 1. However, Ballester found a way to clinch his biggest victory yet, and it’s one that has given him a title no Spanish golfer has ever been able to achieve.

“I think I’m still not conscious of what just happened today,” Ballester said. “Super thankful to have the opportunity to live this moment. We have many great Spaniards, many great legends, and being able to add my name into that history, it’s pretty sweet.”

I saw him get his 4-up lead back on the 11th hole (I was visiting a golfie friend and just happened to leave at that juncture, picking it up on tape later), and thought it was well and truly over.  But Noah Kent didn't get the memo, and it went all the way to the 26th hole.

A big day for the kid man:

As a cherry on top, Ballester’s 21st birthday was Sunday. The Havemeyer Trophy, and everything that comes with winning the biggest amateur event in the world, makes for a good present.

He’s the fourth winner of the U.S. Amateur from Arizona State, joining Billy Mayfair (1987), Phil Mickelson (1990) and Jeff Quinney (2000).

Given how insufferable the Sun Devil Nation can be, would you have ever guessed it was only the four?  And that only one of their Am Champs would be considered historically significant.

I don't know, I try hard not to get swept up in the current zeitgeist, but doe3sn't this have to be a wee bit racist?

When Arizona State coach Matt Thurmond was recruiting the talented youngster, he and Washington coach Alan Murray were watching him when the latter quipped, “It’s just a man amongst boys. He’s just a big silverback gorilla, and all these are little cubs around him.”

It’s a phrase that has stuck with Ballester his entire career at Arizona State. Often overlooked on a talented roster, Ballester has always been the gorilla, an alpha who’s consistency shines through, even if the results didn’t show.

How exactly his consistency  shines through in the absence of, yanno, results will be left for another time.

The Tour Confidential writers did eventually get around to this event:

Jose Luis Ballester won the 2024 U.S. Amateur on Sunday at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Minnesota, besting Noah Kent 2 up. What did you like about Ballester’s game, and has the professional success of last year’s champ, Nick Dunlap, proven some of these top-level amateurs are ready to win on Tour right away?

Colgan: Golf’s talent is not going away. The most interesting battlefield for LIV/PGA Tour relations is in the amateur game, and good for Ballester in boosting his bottom line.

Wall: It most definitely confirms the top-level amateurs no longer need a long runway to get acclimated to the pro game. Just look at the heater Luke Clanton has been on. Ballester is another uber-talented amateur who could very well win on Tour right now. The ASU pipeline continues.

Sens: It’s hard keeping up with the torrent of young talent in golf these days. Whether they are all ready to win immediately is another matter. Not just anyone can. But Ballester sure looked like a world beater this week. The guy’s wedge play and short game were Seve-worthy. If he keeps that up, we will see him lift more trophies before long.

he may have boosted his bottom line, but he's headed back to ASU, so he'll have to limit his appetites to what NIL money can cover.

Of course it's a funky match play event, so beware the recency bias.  No doubt some of these guys might be ready to win on Tour, but it's far more likely to be the Luke Clantons and Gordon Sargents who do so, guys that were taken out in the first couple of match play sessions.  It's golf, so go figure.

Collar, Tightened - Early in the day we were flipping between the Amateur and Memphis, but Hideki seemed to have matters well in hand.  At least until they pulled a DJ on him:

It had been a week filled with adversity for Matsuyama outside the ropes, but no matter. Matsuyama seemed just fine inside the ropes. That’s where he appeared to be cruising to his
second PGA Tour title of the season.

It didn’t go so smoothly.

As Matsuyama headed to 12, a rules official approached.

They talked. The NBC broadcasters were confused.

Eventually, PGA Tour Lead TV Rules and Video Analyst Mark Dusbabek came on to explain that Matsuyama wasn’t going to be penalized. Five holes earlier, at the 7th, Matsuyama had stepped on a pitch mark that was off the green. But it was determined, after the conversation, that it was far enough away from his intended line of play, so no penalty.

PGA Tour rules official Gary Young told Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis the Tour later found supporting video evidence that the pitch mark was about three feet off his line of play.

Matsuyama also told Lewis later the conversation didn’t bother him.

Then why were you effing with his head?  

“If I was worried that I had done something wrong and was going to be penalized, that would have rattled me,” Matsuyama said through his interpreter. “But it was really a non-issue so it was fine.”

It didn’t look that way.

He then pulled his tee shot at the 12th and made bogey. No worries, he was still up four shots.

He then pushed his tee shot on 13 into the bunker. No worries, he made par and was still up four.

He then blocked his approach at 14 into the water. No worries, he got up and down for bogey and was still up two.

He then blasted his approach at 15 over the green and flubbed his pitch short of the green and made double. No worries, he had a par-5 remaining.

He then left his third shot short of the green and missed the putt for birdie. Big worry. His once-five-shot lead was gone and he had two brutal par-4s at TPC Southwind left to play.

Fortunately, Hideki got back on script:

That’s when Matsuyama flipped the script. After finally finding the green in regulation on 17, Matsuyama buried a birdie putt from 26 feet to take the lead by one over Xander Schuaffele and Viktor Hovland, who had a birdie putt from nine feet on the 18th. But Hovland missed and Matsuyama stuffed his approach at Southwind’s hardest hole to six feet, making the putt to secure a two-shot victory at 16 under in the first FedEx Cup Playoff event of the season.

Here's a thought.  Maybe we should allow these things to be determined by their clubs?  I know, an idea so crazy it might just work...

The TC gang riffed on Scottie Scheffler dissing the playoff format:

Scottie Scheffler, the season-long points leader of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, said the format of said playoffs is, well, silly: “Hypothetically, we get to East Lake and my neck flares up
and it doesn’t heal the way it did at The Players, I finish 30th in the FedExCup because I had to withdraw from the last tournament? Is that really the season-long race? No.” Do you agree? But more importantly, what’s the fix?

James Colgan: There IS a fix, and it’s utterly obvious: A massive match-play event seeded and played like the NCAA Tournament! Host the event over three weeks at a handful of tournament sites (so as to stagger tee times to maximize TV view-ability). Bake-in 1-, 2- and 3-up advantages to start opening round matches for FedEx top 10 finishers and everyone else plays straight up. Host the elite eight through the finals in one long weekend (two 36-hole days.) To the winner go the spoils!

Jonathan Wall: Personally, I’ve been out on the existing playoff format for a while. I miss the days of the Tour Championship closing out the season without the manufactured buildup of extra events no one seems to care about, save for the few guys at the top. I’d torpedo the current three-event format and go back to the old season-ending event. Lose the different starting scores and just see what happens when everyone starts on a level playing field. I don’t think golf fans need or care for the gimmicks. Match play is another option, but to Scottie’s point, the unpredictability means a guy who grinded for the No. 1 spot might get bounced by someone having a day.

Josh Sens: I like Colgan’s idea, though I don’t think you’d need to start with scoring advantages. The seeding itself is designed to give the top players an easier path. After that, shut it down for a long offseason. There are too many events in professional golf already. Go dark for a few months. Give fans a chance to miss you.

 It's the same muddled thinking that got us the current hot mess.  You have to choose between a season-long competition (which may be decided before East Lake) or a high-stakes shootout, but you can only choose one....  Well, you can refuse to choose as per the current system, and enjoy folks making fun of your staggered start.

The writers are opting mostly for the latter, with which I agree although, as much as match play could be epic, FedEx and the Tour will never sign off on it.

And this enabling nonsense:

The top 50 for the BMW Championship is now set, which means those players are guaranteed spots into the uber-lucrative Signature Events for 2025. With how important these events have become — for money and FedEx Cup points — are you OK with that many players getting reserved spots? The Tour still has pathways for players to earn starts in them, but is this too generous to the top players while making life more difficult for the rest of the Tour?

Colgan: I think it comes down to our perception of fair. The PGA Tour did the best it could to be fair to players as far as earning entrance into the Signature Events, but the system is inherently favorable to the stars. The good news is that a system built around the stars makes the PGA Tour more like the remaining leagues in pro sports, which makes it a fairer product for the fans. I think the turnover is good. Good enough, at least. But I’m sure there’s somebody out there who disagrees.

Wall: I’m in agreement with Mr. Colgan: Turnover is good, but you still need the stars in the field. That’s who everyone is paying to see. Don’t like the system? Play better and become one of those top stars.

Sens: Making life too difficult for the other guys? They are competing for the right to play golf for multi-million dollar payouts. It’s supposed to be difficult. I have a hard time feeling like anyone out there is getting a raw deal.

James thinks it's good for golf to be like team sports, except that golf isn't like those sports, as their outcomes are far more predictable.   And the point isn't that it's too difficulty for the other guys, it's that absent a full field of elite players, you're conducting exhibitions.  We had two decades of WGC's, which absolutely sucked, yet nobody can explain how these will be different.  Except for the only metric tat matters, to wit, that Patrick gets paid.

And one question for the TC gang.... Who exactly do they imagine cares about this?

Jordan Spieth tied for 68th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, meaning he’ll miss the BMW Championship and won’t get automatic spots into those aforementioned Signature Events. He also will soon undergo surgery to repair a tendon in his left wrist. Spieth had just three top 10s this year and hasn’t won since the 2022 RBC Heritage. Do you see better days ahead for him? Or has his form proven that’s not so certain?

Colgan: Seven years is a really long time to go between relevant stretches of golf, and it’s been seven years since Jordan Spieth’s golf game was relevant for being good. I hope the surgery — and subsequent time away from golf — gives him the reset he’s needed since 2018. Right now, it’s hard to say that’s a given.

Wall: I’d argue no one is more electric than Spieth when he’s scrambling from all over the course and finding a way to contend. The problem is we’ve seen more scrambling than moments in contention. It’s clear he’s not right and has needed a reset for some time. The Tour could really use a healthy Spieth. Here’s hoping surgery brings a return to form.

Sens: I’m sure the surgery will help. But recoveries like this aren’t just physical. Spieth is going to need to regain that magic pixie dust he used to have around him. And that will mean regaining his confidence. Doing that, I suspect, will be the toughest part of all.

Don't worry, Jordan, the cool kids still like you.  Is it too early to rant about the sponsors' exemptions he'll get into those Signature Events?  And did you note how the writers avoided that touchy topic?  They take care of their own, and the rank and file can whine all they want, but Patrick must get paid to save our democracy.

Wither Pro Golf - Very little actual news, but the TC gang picked up on the PGA Tour's 2-25 schedule drop:

The 2025 PGA Tour schedule dropped last week with few changes but one important revelation. When asked if the new schedule is an indication that there’s not going to be anything happening with LIV “at least through next year or ’26 or ’27,” commissioner Jay Monahan said, “I think that’s fair.” Is this bad news for the Tour? And what does it mean for golf’s future? Could things actually get worse?

Colgan: If by “is this bad news for the Tour?” you mean “is this undermining pro golf’s relevance in a way that makes the average sports fan care less about the sport?” … then, yes, it is bad news for the Tour. The good news is that the fault lines are so clearly defined (and LIV’s business is so obviously and totally unprofitable) that waiting things out might actually help the PGA Tour. (An observation: I know the Tour made the decision to merge interests with the Saudis, but I hate how every conversation is framed around the Tour’s incumbency. LIV’s product appealing to literally anyone would go a long way in motivating unity in pro golf, and yet they continue to be watched by audiences smaller than Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation without substantive competitive critique. Both sides are at fault!)

Wall: It’s bad news for pro golf, not just the PGA Tour. Spreading the talent across two tours waters down the product and makes it difficult for fans to get excited about anything other than the majors. Neither Tour has any juice, and it’s highly frustrating. The future doesn’t look rosey, let’s put it that way.

Sens: Wall said it well. The Masters can’t come soon enough.

I'm not saying it isn't a problem, but there's really only 2-3 guys whose absence could possibly matter, and the nature of golf renders their absence almost undiscernible.

I'll also admit I have little idea what Colgan's point is about that "incumbency".  Does he think the discussions frame the PGA Tour as at fault?  I thought Scheffler said it best, that if you want blame somebody for the rupture in the game, why wouldn't you start with those that, yanno, ruptured it?  Though does James connect the unprofitability with the unwatchability?  And, most importantly, is he concerned that the move to make the PGA Tour more like LIV will render it unwatchable as well?

Eamon Lynch has some thoughts:

Spent?  Soon?  Do tell.  He frames his piece using one of those 2-3 guys to whom I alluded:

The pithy ‘3 R’s’ rubric has been used to summarize fundamentals in many areas, from the New Deal (Relief, Recovery, Reform), to early learning (Relationships, Repetition, Routines), to the
environment (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle). The same formula can illuminate what matters most in golf these days: Reward, Reputation, Relevance.

The economics that have warped the men’s professional game ensure ample reward, but for some that has come at the cost of both reputation and relevance, none moreso than Jon Rahm. Golf Digest’s Jaime Diaz reports that the Spaniard regrets his December move to LIV Golf, and while Rahm himself is unlikely to ever confirm such a sentiment, Diaz is a fastidious reporter and his account squares with what many others in the game have heard. Even in his (at times bizarre) public comments, Rahm sounds more notes of poignant yearning for the tour he left than of fierce advocacy for the one he joined.

He was rewarded though, even if the oft-cited contract amount ($500 million) is wholly unsourced and — according to someone close to Rahm — wildly exaggerated. Whatever the figure, it was sufficient for a man who emphatically pledged fealty to the PGA Tour to don a LIV letterman jacket and stand next to Greg Norman. Rahm’s isn’t the only reputation bruised after a volte-face, and at least he didn’t explicitly express his willingness to overlook murder and human rights abuses if doing so gave him leverage over the PGA Tour, that being the putrid pyre on which Phil Mickelson’s legacy was incinerated.

Obviously that doesn't pay off those header promises, but the public regret of their highest-profile get isn't helpful.

I do agree that this space bears watching:

Yet a day is nearing when Saudi subsidies cease to provide a dominant advantage when it comes to player rewards, because LIV’s irrational economy faces a retraction. A few player contracts expire in 2024, more in ’25. Some of the league’s stars have been told they won’t see renewals on the scale that lured them to LIV, so those who extend will be doing so for less. Assuming extensions are even offered. Perhaps they will be, but if no deal is reached between the Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour, then the Saudi government has a call to make: throw good money after bad with another round of contracts for an execrable product with zero market traction, or cut loose. And they have been known to favor chopping those deemed inconvenient.

 Yanno, who doesn't enjoy a good bonecutter jibe?

I would still caution that they have the available resources, and that folks tend to be slow to acknowledge their major mistakes, so hold the triumphalism.  But, as Eamon hints at, the whole model is a substantial failure, but is Yasir ready to won up to that F-up?

Of course, the Tour has it's own issues:

Across town, it’s a bull market, for now. Scottie Scheffler has earned more than $28 million in prize money this season on the PGA Tour. Throw in his Comcast bonus ($8 million), two lucrative events this week and next (each paying $3.6 million to the winner) and the eye-watering FedEx Cup bonuses disbursed later this month at East Lake (top payout: $25 million), and Scheffler could clear well north of $60 million. And that excludes endorsements, the value of the equity grant he received in PGA Tour Enterprises, and a pension scheme that would make Congressional grifters feel shortchanged.

But how sustainable is that model? Strategic Sports Group injected $1.5 billion into the Tour with the promise of the same again, but that’s not intended to be debited directly into players’ pockets as purses. An accounting will come in Ponte Vedra as surely as it will in Riyadh. “Sustainability is living on nature’s income rather than living on its capital,” wrote the late physicist, Murray Gell-Mann. His aphorism has currency when applied to the golf economy, regardless of which tour one looks at.

Excuse me, Eamon, but that's exactly the intended use of the $1.5 billion large.  In fact, it was mostly supposed to go into the one guy's pocket, yanno that pluperfect phallus.

That said, one tour has attracted investors who see the potential for significant returns. The other survives on the whims of a solitary banker, and he works for a mercurial authoritarian. That’s a shaky foundation for long-term sustainability. The popular narrative has the PGA Tour unable to withstand more poaching, having its product strength bled out, seeing its sponsors and fans fleeing. There are very minor elements of truth in those assertions, but the Saudis are even more incentivized to seek a face-saving deal. The PGA Tour is looking less like LIV’s rival and more like its life raft.

For some guys who cashed out with LIV, most of what happens next won’t matter. They got theirs. But not everyone who went to LIV lacked the weaponry or the stomach for the fight at the elite level. Certainly not Rahm. He was by far the most competitive player to jump, and while he hasn’t performed well since—at least outside the 54-hole exhibition ecosystem—it’s too limited a data sample to say LIV has diminished him as a force. But it’s not too early to say LIV has made him less relevant.

I don't think the header was justified by the facts on the ground, but I do think Eamon is correctly judging the current relative leverage, mostly because LIV itself just isn't viable.

I can't tell you how long that $1.5 billion lasts or whether the jock-sniffers would release the second half of the promised sum, so Jay should be perceived as being on the clock, methinks.  But I don't see further defections to LIV (the low-hanging fruit is gone and Rahm's misery is quite public), so over to you, Yasir.

My last glance yesterday had Rahm ahead at The Greenbrier, and I'm guessing that Yasir would have preferred a different outcome:

Yeah, nothing like a battle between your two biggest names, leaving us to speculate at which of the two is more miserable on LIV.  

That's it for today.  Blogging will be on a "feel like" basis going forward, not that I even know what that means.

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