Midweek Musings - Back In The Saddle Edition

Thanks for your patience as my absence as we visited Employee No. 2's family on the Left Bank.  A bit of a late start today but shall we see what we missed?  I'll limit myself to the LIViverse today, and perhaps catch up on other golf news later in the week.

So, where are we?  Damned if I know, but this little bit might just encapsulate all that's wrong with LIV:

Danny Lee received an early Christmas present over the weekend. And with LIV Golf's long off-season just getting started, he'll have plenty of time to break it in. That's because the 2008 U.S. Amateur champ and former PGA Tour winner just had a spiffy Porsche delivered. And, understandably, he couldn't wait to show it off. Have a look:

Apparently being Danny Lee pays well, sufficiently so to toss one's regrettable decisions:

From the comments we gather that it's not Lee's first rodeo with the Germany luxury car. Fellow LIV player Pat Perez mentioned Lee's lime green Porsche and Lee responded, "You didn't like that color so I switched to new one." Must be nice.

Like me, you probably assumed that they were so relentlessly focused on growing the game that there couldn't be time for such frivolity.....

But I'm surprised that Lee passed up on the obvious palette option of blood red.

As for this, I could have saved him time and summed it up on one:

27 lessons learned after two years of LIV Golf

 Feels more like fifty in dog years....

Though Joel Beall does come up with a methodology that kind of works, see if you agree:

What’s worked: Team drama

One of the most notable stories from LIV this season was Brooks Koepka repeatedly calling out his own teammate, Matthew Wolff. The zealous fan might not have an appetite for such theatrics,

but turn on any sports TV, radio or podcast and it’s clear that drama sells. Because it’s an individual sport, professional golf lacks the conflict that is inherent to group anatomies. Rather than try to damper such inner turmoils, LIV needs to milk them for all their worth.

What hasn’t: Team movement

The NBA has built an entire economy on team transactions. Forget signings and trades and trade requests, roster building and reloading and tearing down; mere rumors and theoretical roster tinkering has assisted the league in becoming an entity consumed year-round. So far, LIV Golf has not tapped into this dynamic, save for one or two players changing teams this past year. If LIV Golf is sticking with its team-centric approach, it needs to allow for more movement between rosters.

What really hasn’t: Relegation

Those around LIV trumpet relegation as a new concept to the sport, save for the fact that every other professional circuit has been doing this for (check’s notes) almost forever. Also, only those finishing 45th or worse in the 48-man league’s individual standings are relegated … and even that comes with an asterisk, as Lee Westwood (45th) and Martin Kaymer (49th) are exempt due to being team captains. Worse, the lack of consequence for bad performance—and as a corollary, the lack of access into competitions—was one of the reasons LIV Golf was denied Official World Golf Ranking points, a decision that has massive repercussions for the league’s future.

See, already we've found commn ground.  Because Brooks being an a******e was clearly the best part of LIV's second season, though for me the key bit is that he was doing it out of the public eye.

I guess this is about right:

What’s worked: Bryson DeChambeau

Between LIV’s failure to resonate with the public and 18 months of injured and uninspiring play, the paradigm shifter had become somewhat of an afterthought. Which, frankly, was a bummer. DeChambeau may be, ahem, a divisive figure, yet he is never vanilla, and golf is better with some color. Whatever criticisms aimed at those joining LIV, DeChambeau has not channeled the exuberant riches into early retirement, changing coaches and retooling his swing to return to the results he knows he can still achieve. DeChambeau made a run at the PGA Championship, won two individual LIV events this year (including one punctuated with a final-round 58) and secured the team championship at the team finale. There are just a handful of golfers that have the capacity to capture the casual fan’s attention, and DeChambeau is on of ‘em.

What hasn’t: Almost every other big signing

Reread the last sentence from the above paragraph. Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Koepka … there’s no doubt these players gave LIV Golf some legitimacy when jumping ship. But following the shock of their initial defections, they have mostly faded into the background with regard to their play on LIV. Not helping is Koepka, who has tried to distance himself from LIV at majors and the Ryder Cup, letting it be known that while he is with them, he is not one of them.

What really hasn’t: Old guys  Save for a weekend run by Phil Mickelson at the Masters, there has been no new lease on life with their games. Professional golf remains a game powered and dominated by youth, and fans seem to recognize that many of the 40-plus crowd were merely jumping at golden parachutes.

Koepka?

The problem for the LIVsters is quite obvious, that those two guys only cashed the check because their bodies were so broken down that they didn't think they'd be able to play.  Once Koepka got healthy, the rumors started flying about his desire to go home...

This passes for Joel's conclusion:

What’s worked: Waiting out moral hand wringing

LIV Golf is funded by a government accused of human-rights atrocities. Still no escaping that reality, as much as LIV and its members try. However, whatever ethical high ground held by the PGA Tour has been lost, as the tour has attempted to partner with the very thing they stood against on principle.

What hasn’t worked: LIV as a threat

Yes, LIV Golf can still Scrooge McDuck mountains of gold. More players may jump. But LIV lost its most formidable weapons against the PGA Tour in the lawsuit and the OWGR battle. It doesn’t mean LIV has lost the war, and the war will definitely continue (which, for the rest of golf, seems like a loss), but a path for victory may no longer exist for LIV.

What really hasn’t: Traction

While its players’ acidic quotes routinely make headlines, what happens during their competitions does not. Every respectable metric has underlined that LIV Golf has failed to gain an audience, to the point where the league stopped reporting its own numbers. If the framework agreement does not come to fruition it’s hard to see any more in-their-prime stars jumping toward LIV (especially after none did prior to this season). Its financial backing confers LIV Golf a forever runway to take flight. Problem is, after two years and billions of dollars, no one wants to get on board.

OK, I guess, but that "forever runway" is entirely dependent upon one guy's continued willingness to write checks.   Will he still do so after it becomes clear that an Augusta National membership isn't in the offing?

Next we have this for those with extra cash for whom the crypto market is too volatile:

Are LIV Golf teams a good investment? A sports analyst weighs the pros and cons

You mean I can get in on the Range Goats ground floor?

But doesn't this just tell you everything you need to know?

How exactly would an interested investor evaluate a LIV franchise for potential investment? How

would that potential investment compare to investing in other professional sports teams? Eric Coonrod and Matt Lashoff run Integral Ventures—a California-based advisory firm that helps investors evaluate opportunities like these. Coonrod says the team payout language is designed to telegraph to potential investors that LIV franchises go beyond hype and hope and have potential revenue streams—and not just expenses such as flying players and their entourages around the world.

“The big questions at this stage are what kind of return can the investment provide in three, five or seven years,” Coonrod says, “and are you ready to jump in because you're more afraid of missing out than you are of doing a proper valuation?"

Pretty clear who the target investors are, those that don't like to run numbers....

Assuming a client wants to buy into LIV as a business and not just an ego or passion play, Coonrod says due diligence would involve exploring the potential to grow revenue—and how much freedom teams have to do that within the structure of the league. Beyond team prize money, could Crushers GC cash in on DeChambeau's fame for merchandising and sponsorship? What about building out a team facility where fans can attend events, watch practices or even take a golf school "taught" by a tour player?

A passion play?  That's just too damn funny:

A Passion play is a dramatic representation of the trial, suffering, death, and resurrection of Jesus. While “Passion” is a Christian theological term used to express Jesus's spiritual, emotional, and physical pain before and during the crucifixion, Passion plays also portray events earlier in Jesus's life.

So, like Greg Norman on any Sunday at Augusta?

But don't worry your pretty little head about those pesky revenues:

More revenue is obviously nice, but the main spliff for a potential owner is the potential for that team to become more valuable for reasons unrelated to how many birdies DeChambeau makes or autographs Koepka signs. "Dan Snyder wasn't the best NFL owner by many measures. The team was not successful on the field, went through a challenging rebrand and became less popular in its market," Coonrod says. "But because the NFL brand is so strong and there are so few opportunities to be an NFL owner, just holding onto the franchise for 20 years turned an $800 million investment into $6 billion when he sold the team this year. That has to be considered a win."

There's a point buried there, though the author loses the plot.  Dan Snyder might be the village idiot, but the franchise he mismanaged just happened to be an NFL franchise, and their revenues went nowhere but North.  But does anyone remember how those USFL franchise in vestments worked out?   

There's only one thing you need to know about this treatise on LIV franchise valuations, to wit, CTRL:F: Greater Fool Theory yields zero results.

There's no more loyal foot soldier than Davis Love, III, and he threw out some interesting nuggets for us to gnaw upon.  The reveal in the header is no surprise:

'I don’t see any way': Davis Love III says PGA Tour deal with Saudi Arabia's PIF unlikely to hit deadline

But as he prattled on, he gave u a few bits worth noting:

“I’m still against the fact that this is a hostile takeover. These guys signed with a company that is trying to take us over. If a bunch of guys left Pepsi and went over to Coke and tried to take over Pepsi would you ever let them come back to Pepsi? I don’t think so. It may not be a perfect comparison but they sued us to make us change our rules so they could get what they wanted.”

Yowser, I'm betting that he got a few angry phone calls from that 904 area code, because that's a staggering admission.

Jay and Jimmy Dunne threw a lot of s**t at the wall to try to convince us that the PGA Tour would remain unchanged and that he, Jay Monahan, would at all times decide the future of LIV.  The problem is that to believe that, one has to accept the premise that the Saudis will pump billions into the PGA Tour and expect nothing in return.....  Yeah, unicorns.

You've long discovered that your humble blogger fixates upon idiosyncratic details, but I can't stop laughing at his mangled analogy.  Once Jay gets over Davis' use of hostile takeover, I suspect he'll be furious at Davis suggesting that the PGA Tour is Pepsi and that LIV is Coke.... Yanno, you might have wanted to put the guys in the white hats as the market leader.....

It's for sure a complicated negotiation, but here's his take on why the delay:

Love suggested that the reason a deal may not be reached before the deadline is due to the Saudi’s unwillingness to negotiate.

“It’s just like the lawsuit: we’re never going to go to trial if they don’t ever do discovery. Our staff and players did discovery. They refused.

“We made an offer,” Love continued, referring to the Tour, “and if you don’t ever communicate, we can’t make another offer. It’s bizarre what’s going on. It’s a long way from anything. The sharks are circling. Now everyone wants to invest in the PGA Tour.”

Sounds like Yasir is ghosting Jay.... Guess he's gonna p[lay hardball over the ANGC membership....

But is this the party line?

“We don’t need money, that’s the beautiful thing,” he said. “One very smart business person said, ‘You may think you’re in a mess but I buy distressed companies and try to fix them to make money. Your company isn’t in trouble, you make a lot of money. It’s perfectly fine the way it is. All you’re trying to do is make it better. You’re in a great position.’”

I was reliably informed that the PGA Tour was going broke because their "gentlemen" refused to play for an amount that supportable by the golf ecosystem.....  Good to know you don't need Saudi money, Davis, but you might want to agree to a script with Jay in the future.

No doubt you heard that they turned down this offer from Ari Gold Emanuel:

It’s been reported that as many as 10 different investors have emerged as potential options for the Tour — although one company, Endeavor, reportedly said it already has been rejected — either to dilute the PIF’s ownership stake, which could make a deal more palatable to the U.S. Department of Justice and in the court of public opinion, or possibly as an alternative to Saudi money. Love said it will take time to weigh those options too.

It's not even clear if anyone knows what they're bidding on, but the rather public rejection seemed curious, even more so if you credit Davis' assertion that the Saudis aren't negotiating in good faith.  

Color me skeptical that any of these investors will fund the Tour in lieu of Saudi participation, for the simple fact that the Saudis remaining competitors of the Tour would seem the kind of risk factor that smart money avoids.  But for two years I've been shocked at the Tour's failure to assert concerns about sovereignty and/or control:

Love went on to point out that it isn’t just the Saudi fund he is concerned about partnering with, but rather extends to any of the investment funds looking to pump money into the Tour.

“If it was Warren Buffett instead of PIF, do we really want Warren Buffett to control the PGA Tour just because he gave us a whole bunch of money? Shouldn’t the players control the PGA Tour and the staff that the board approved?” he mused.

Davis, have you spoken with Patrick?  The hatless wonder isn't willing to play for anything less than Saudi money, though he's very insistent that he receive such largesse without the taint of Wahhabism.  To keep him on the farm it seems you'll be ceding control to somebody..

But things get very curious because this isn't the first overture to the Tour from Team Ari.  Alas, Dylan Dethier takes us through a history lesson from a most unreliable source:

“For clarity’s sake, Endeavor didn’t try to invest 2 years ago, SilverLake did,” Mickelson wrote, referring to the private equity firm with majority ownership of Endeavor. According to Mickelson, Endeavor — which already manages Tour events and is involved with selling the Tour’s commercial rights — would have been involved in the operation of a new proposed series involving team golf and top players.

“Ari and Endeavor were to run 8 elevated events and the players and SilverLake would own the new elevated events 50/50 in a separate entity. October 30, 2021 Ed Herlihy said the Tour would take a hostile view and shut this down if it’s not 100% owned by the PGA Tour,” Mickelson continued.

Sound familiar? This harkens back to a New York Post article from Feb. 2022 in which several anonymous sources talked about the proposal brought to Monahan and the Policy Board. From that Post story:

“The Tour could have ended all threat of the Saudi league had they done this,” one of the sources said. “This would be a collaborative effort. It was all worked out … until [Herlihy] shut it down in one sentence. It undermines everything the Tour has been saying about who they are — that this is owned by the players, this is run by the players. That is complete BS.”

Whether or not Mickelson was one of those original Post sources, he’s certainly sympathetic to their viewpoint and timeline of events. Back to his tweet, then:

“Then in February of 2022 SilverLake went back to Monahan and said The League was going to happen and these new elevated events could prevent players from leaving and Jay [Monahan] said ‘the players won’t go, they know what we will do to them’ so we won’t be doing this. SilverLake went back to Jay again May of 2022 and the same conversation took place. Jay and Ed had 3 opportunities to have elevated events that would be fully funded and could prevent division but their need to control everything(obnoxious greed) blinded their judgment. Let’s get the facts straight. All of this is in discovery of the civil case if it can be obtained. If not, I have it too.”

Whew! There’s more to explore from this tweet and from that timeline of events, and Mickelson is hardly an unbiased observer here. But if you’re looking to debate how the PGA Tour has handled (and how it should have handled) a looming Saudi threat, that is the critical zone. These are the decisions Monahan and the board made that will continue to be second-guessed as long as pro golf’s schism remains.

There’s a key two-word phrase Mickelson uses there — obnoxious greed — that harkens back to another story from February 2022. Mickelson sounded off at the Saudi International about the PGA Tour’s obnoxious greed in handling pros’ media rights, among other things. In the year-plus since then Mickelson has ping-ponged between scorched-earth and a gentler approach. This particular choice of words suggests he’s eager to go on the offensive again.

Phil, accusing someone of obnoxious greed should come with an irony alert, no?

But it goes without saying that the member-owned tour SHOULD control their events, as Davis Love seems to agree.  Of course I totally get that anyone not doing exactly what Phil demands in the moment needs to be destroyed, so don't keep yourself up at nights Phil worrying about destroying the tour that made you rich.

Some thoughts on LIV stuff rom this week's Tour Confidential panel:

1. LIV Golf officially ended his season with its Team Championship last Sunday. Our James Colgan recently broke down, after Year 2, what LIV has and has not accomplished thus far. As LIV Golf enters Year 3, what do you think it needs to do to make the necessary strides next season? And how does it do that?

Jessica Marksbury: It appears that money alone isn’t enough to draw viewers. For me, golf is at its most interesting and entertaining when something other than money is on the line. LIV should probably do whatever it can to meet OWGR eligibility criteria so there can be something else to play for, like a spot in a major, that would be relatable to the general viewing public.

Alan Bastable: There’s a reason LIV and the PGA Tour have been at the negotiating table. The Tour sorely needs investment, and LIV sorely needs competitive credibility. Yes, the OWGR board’s decision to deny LIV points was a blow, but the league has far bigger problems to solve, namely with getting fans to care about the outcomes of their events. Two years in, the tournaments remain mostly unwatchable and devoid of any sense of gravitas. The players will tell you they are competing for more than just cash and champagne showers after the winning putts drop, but as a golf fan, I struggle to see it, or, more to the point, feel it. The team names also need to go. No matter how much talent LIV attracts, fans will never warm to the Crushers, Cleeks or Fireballs. Naming the teams for the captains — Mickelson, DeChambeau, Sergio, et al. — would instantly give squads more of an identity and help to draw in fans. I don’t have any insights into how a Tour-LIV partnership might solve LIV’s woes but commingling Tour players at LIV events and vice versa would be a good start.

Dylan Dethier: That’s well said. I think the simple answer is that there’s no simple answer. One potential approach would be to shrink the schedule, lean in on the team thing, ditch stroke play all together and embrace whatever drama would inevitably stir up. I dunno. LIV is currently a huge newsmaker and intriguing as a disruptor but the golf itself hasn’t captured much of an audience, given its budget.

Ummm, stop sucking so much?

Let me ask it a different way?  Did what they proposed ever sound interesting?  If so, you need to reexamine your assumptions, because it's the WGCs redux.

2. Speaking of LIV, it announced a “Promotions” event, a three-day, four-round shootout in December in which a group of players will do battle for three guaranteed spots on 2024 LIV rosters. Are you expecting some well-known names to to enter the field (if eligible)? What do you think of the new event?

Marksbury: Q-School where there’s some guaranteed money if you get through? That has to be appealing for a certain subset of golfers. I’d be really surprised if any big names who have held out this long would jump for an opportunity like this, though I’m sure it’s an intriguing offer for players who don’t have status elsewhere.

Bastable: Yeah, it’ll be fascinating to see who turns up. There seems to be a fair amount of disgruntlement from the Tour’s “working class” (i.e., those players who don’t enjoy the perks of the signature events) so it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least a few familiar names make a LIV run. Here’s the problem, though: What if you’re a Tour player who tries to qualify but doesn’t make it? Jury’s still out on whether the Tour would allow those players back, and, if it does, it would result in a spot of awkwardness in player dining, no?

Dethier: It’s a fascinating and high-stakes tournament and there are plenty of guys from lower tours who would be crawling over each other to play. But I doubt we’ll see big names; if they wanted to go to LIV they’d jump during free agency, when more money is theoretically up for grabs. I’m intrigued by which current LIV guys won’t get re-signed and will end up in the mix, though.

The Tour's working class has been sold down the river by Tiger and Rory, so one shouldn't expect any loyalty there.  That said, the future of LIV is so uncertain and the retribution can be a bitch.

To me, the reaction of the tour rabbits likely will mirror that of the high value targets.  What I mean by that is, if you're a 24-year old rabbit with upside, meaning you think you can realistically qualify for those elevated events, you're not going to put that at risk to try to qualify at long odds onto LIV.  If you're a beaten-up has-been, well maybe you look for that signature line because, after all, you'd fit right in.

That will be it for today, as I need to get to that lengthy To-Do list.  I'll see you when I see you....