Monday, May 15, 2023

Weekend Wrap - PGA Championship Week Edition

Golf was played this past weekend, though all eyes will be on Rochester, NY for the year's second elevated event major.

JDay's Day - To this observer, Jason Day always looks like a world-beater, though there's no shortage of selection bias involved there (after all, he's only on camera when playing well).  But I suspect this will be a popular win:

It has been five years since Jason Day won on the PGA Tour, but his winless drought is over. Day was phenomenal Sunday at the AT&T Byron Nelson, carding a 9-under 62 to win by one shot at 23
under in the same tournament he picked up his first career win 13 years ago.

“I don’t know how to explain it,” Day said. “I came into the week after missing last week’s cut, and I was kind of fed up with having to go over like a lot of technical thoughts with my swing. So I just decided I’m just going to go out and just try and play some golf.”

For Day, it’s his 13th PGA Tour victory and first since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship.

As a measure of how long it's been, that's his son Dash that he's hugging in the phot above, who was about up to his Dad's belt buckle the last time they enacted this scene.

What can't be left unremarked upon is the staggeringly weak field, to be expected at the confluence of non-elevated events and the week before a major.  There's always talent, they go thousands deep, but the only name brands were the Texans, and one of those has an ill-timed wrist injury.

The Tour Confidential panel was mostly forward-looking, but did spare a thought for this event:

6. Former World No. 1 Jason Day shot a final-round 62 to win the AT&T Byron Nelson by one, picking up his 13th career PGA Tour victory but first since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship (more than 100 starts ago). Given his struggles he’s had to overcome the last several years — injuries, swing changes and vertigo — how impressive was it to see him win again? And are you surprised he did?

Sens. Inspiring return to the winner’s circle. But this was not so much a bolt from the blue as it was a simmer that reached a boil. He’d been heating up. Getting healthy. Dialing in his swing. Day was always an epic talent so not a complete shock. Just great to see it finally all come together.

Dethier: A few years ago this dude was thinking about walking away from golf. He was playing PGA Tour events just to check ‘em off his sponsor obligation list. His heart wasn’t in it. But somewhere along the line he doubled down on getting better and it’s been impressive as hell to see his progress. Happy for him. He had to fend off a wild leaderboard and hit a wedge shot in the rain at No. 18 that was absolute nails. There’s more to come, I’m sure — but I hope he enjoys this one.

Colgan: As I watched JDay sample cowboy hats on Sunday afternoon in Texas, I found myself reflecting on something I heard him say at the 2021 Masters: he was on the path back to World No. 1. At the time, I chuckled it off — he was ranked 58th in the world and en route to another MC. Now, at World No. 20, I’m paying attention.

He's had enough success recently that this shouldn't surprise anyone, it's just awfully hard to win out there.

But while our attention is focused on the here and now, does Jay have a deep enough supply of hats and rabbits for 2024?  Because those dominos are tumbling:

Golfweek has learned that AT&T has asked out of its sponsorship of the AT&T Byron Nelson after this year.

Full disclosure, your humble blogger predicted the demise of the Byron Nelson, though that goes back to before I was either a blogger or humble.  The event was then mired at the horrible Las Colinas, and the current generation of entitled touring professionals seemed unlikely to embrace a guy that only played professional golf until he had earned enough to buy his ranch.  The guys would go while Byron was still with us, I just didn't expect that reverence to last this long after his passing.

AT&T, which famously sponsors Jordan Spieth, is not bailing on the Tour completely. but the cause-and-effect relationship is quite apparent:

AT&T is not bailing on the PGA Tour. It is expected to increase its investment in the Pebble Beach event because the tournament will potentially become one of the eight designated events on the 2024 schedule. That means an increase in prize money to $20 million, a significant portion of which is expected to be taken on by the title sponsor.

Ironically, after his ranch purchase, Byron would come out of retirement to play a handful of events each year, one of which was the old Crosby Clambake.  Hence, The Match, which you've no doubt read.

Of course, to accommodate the cool kids' demands, the Pebble event will be unrecognizable in 2024, limited to two courses and no amateurs on the weekend.  Well played, Jay, with one stroke you've destroyed two of your events.

But then the sponsorship search goes off the deep end:

A search for a replacement is well underway to assume the title of the Tour’s long-running Dallas event, which is being played this week at TPC Craig Ranch in the suburb of McKinney, Texas. According to multiple sources, the Tour had Raytheon Technologies, one of the largest aerospace and defense manufacturers in the world, ready to sign on the dotted line but Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan nixed the deal at the last minute because the company sells missiles to Saudi Arabia.

In August, the U.S. State Department approved weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, who were expected to buy 300 Raytheon Technologies-made MIM-104E Patriot missiles for more than $3 billion.

Hey, it's not like they're selling them bonecutters...

Just a reminder that Jay has no problem with any company doing business with China..... This is a mirror image of our President calling the Saudis a pariah state, which only caused them to reduce oil shipments and cutting deals with the Iranians.  I've been reliably informed that the only country conceived in original sin is the United States of America and that we can therefor not criticize the Saudis or anyone else.

Does anyone want to let Jay know that the Patriots are defensive missile systems?  yeah, I agree, empty virtue signaling should just be ignored...

PGA Preview, LIV-centric - Lots to cover here, as it hasn't been a good stretch for civility.  Let's start with the TC gang's musings:

2. LIV Golf had a strong showing at the Masters, with three players in the top six. Do you expect to see a better or worse showing from LIV competitors at Oak Hill?

Sens: It would be tough to top their showing at the Masters and I wouldn’t expect it. More than maybe any course, Augusta lends itself to repeat patterns, and the LIV guys who did so well in April — Phil, Reed, Koepka, Smith— all had great track records there, with games that fit. I expect Oak Hill to be more of a wild card, and less favorable to likes of Phil and Smith. But it wouldn’t be a shock if a LIV player won. A few shekels on DJ or Koepka would not be a crazy bet.

Dethier: On a percentage basis there will be fewer LIV guys at the PGA; 18 of the 88 Masters contestants were LIV golfers vs. 17 of 156 at the PGA. So yeah, I think it’s logical to expect a slightly worse showing than three in the top five. But there are a few LIV guys who seem like good fits to contend; Koepka feels like the obvious contender, Johnson seems to be rounding into form, Smith and Joaquin Niemann have plenty of game. It’ll be fun to see how they all stack up.

Colgan: Agreed, DD — a worse performance is as much a mathematical probability as it is a performance-based one. Also fair to point out that Oak Hill represents a slightly different challenge for LIV’s contingent than Augusta National, where most of the LIV field has been traveling annually for the last decade. If there is a LIV competitiveness dropoff (I’m skeptical), it’d stand to reason it would hit here instead of at Augusta.

I'm pretty sure that we can rule Phil out of the mix.... otherwise it seems mostly a random throw of the die, though I'd be amused by another Sunday meltdown, kind of a Koepka specialty since May of 2019.

I don't know what these guys are smoking, but I do hope they've brought enough to share:

3. One of those LIV players, Phil Mickelson, tied for second at the Masters and is playing in his first PGA Championship since he won in 2021. Mickelson then decided to skip last year’s title defense during a lengthy stay away from the game. With no Tiger in the field, is Mickelson the field’s most enthralling entry?

Sens: Only if we are giving points for provocative tweets. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are playing riveting golf these days. And one of them still has a chance at the grand slam this year. They rank 1 and 2 as most compelling in my eyes.

Dethier: We were already interested to hear what Mickelson has to say. Given his result at the Masters, his play has earned our attention, too. The last time Mickelson played the PGA Championship, after all, he won. Only he and Justin Thomas can say that entering this week. I’d be surprised to see him in contention to equal that result at Oak Hill, but I was surprised at Augusta, too…

Colgan: Phil is, as per usual, one of the most interesting stories in a very interesting field. But, as per usual, that intrigue only sticks around as long as the red scores do. Most interesting, though? That’s the Rochester Garbage Plate for me.

I certainly don't expect much from the man on this golf course, but how do you ask a Phil question in this moment without a reference to his recent charm offensive?  First there was Goochgate:

I'm sorry, but the fact checkers have ruled that a change in eligibility affecting only one irrelevant player cannot be more than a partial dick move.

Then he got into it with Colt Knost over OWGR points, and out comes the C-word:

That's Phil in a nutshell.... Perfectly happy to recruit other players and allow them to believe Greg Norman's delusions, because he's got his own needs covered.  But remind me, Phil, which of the majors are you term-limited on?  Oh, that's gotta sting...

Eamon Lynch has thoughts.  How could he not when presented with such a target-rich environment:

Last week, he singled out the CEO of the USGA, Mike Whan, for what he claimed was a plot to
deny his LIV Golf colleague, Talor Gooch, an automatic spot in the U.S. Open. “Dick move,” tweeted the Pelé of prickish antics.

As in politics, conspiracies must metastasize to include any entity that doesn’t accommodate the interests of the cult. So Mickelson is now training his fire on the PGA of America, which he accused of “colluding” with the PGA Tour to keep LIV players out of next week’s PGA Championship. His theory — that the PGA of America bypassed Greg Norman’s also-rans in favor of Jay Monahan’s lower-ranked also-rans — is baseless since the PGA Championship doesn’t strictly rely on rankings to award places in its field. But the PGA of America’s criteria is sloppily constructed and lacking in clarity, and that makes it catnip for conspiracy theorists, or a charlatan eager to distract from his own culpability.

One senses a certain shrillness in this, something both Eamon and I have speculated might be sourced in desperation....

 But maybe this accounts for that odd Sunday in Kiawah:

In the antitrust suit he filed with 10 other LIV players last summer, Mickelson said that he was suspended by the PGA Tour on March 22 for, among other things, recruiting for LIV Golf during Tour events. That was unsurprising: players were well aware of how Mickelson would use rounds to cajole his luckless playing partners about the abundant riches awaiting just over the Riyadh rainbow. While Greg Norman was the man out front, Mickelson sold the same snake oil in the shadows. He lent the enterprise credibility. If a six-time major winner was on board, they should be too.

Players were told they could continue to play PGA Tour events, that they could cherry-pick European starts, that they would get the world ranking points necessary for most of them to qualify for majors, and that they would be hailed as visionaries growing a stale sport. All that and a huge check to boot.

Just gonna let Eamon roll:

LIV Golf has no audience traction, particularly in the only region that can confer commercial viability, the U.S. One possible explanation is that LIV is an execrable product, with odious financing, a nefarious objective, inept leadership, and unlikable competitors playing for ludicrously named teams on cow pasture courses. Or, if you believe Mickelson, LIV’s issues owe more to numerous entities and individuals conspiring to smother a surefire concept.

In his eagerness to manufacture an alternative reality in which LIV players have been mistreated by others rather than misled by him, Mickelson is comically alleging a conspiracy among organizations that haven’t fired a shot — in defense either of the PGA Tour or the reputation of the sport they claim to uphold — since this war began. The PGA of America, like the USGA and R&A, has not been discriminatory toward LIV golfers who earned the right to play in its major, and the leaders of all three organizations (Messrs. Whan, Waugh and Slumbers) have been sideline sitters. Mickelson’s issue isn’t that they have conspired against LIV players, but rather that they haven’t bent the rules to insulate those players from the consequences of a decision Mickelson encouraged them to make.

One point Knost made in his Tweetfest with Phil is that the OWGR thing could have been addressed before LIV launched, although they did have that authoritative McKinsey feasibility study.  As a former M&A guy, I thought I had seen due diligence failures, but those came with significantly fewer zeros.

Lastly, before moving on, I think Eamon gets the better of this exchange:

If only because Billy Walters' book is being published in August.  Perhaps, like Shipnuck, he'll share some of the incendiary bits ahead of time.  This week would be good, Billy.

But while Phil is secure in his position as the loosest cannon in golf, Seth Waugh says hold my beer:


Regarding world ranking points and his organization’s role in the Official World Golf Ranking, Waugh suggested LIV’s team component is creating issues for determining points. The former Deutsche Bank CEO also suggested LIV’s Golf model won’t hold up.

“Their logic about the team play being something significant that people can get behind I think is flawed,” he told The Times. “I don’t think people really care about it. And I don’t see how it’s a survivable business model.

“They can fund it for as long as they want to, but no matter how much money you have, at some point burning it doesn’t feel very good. I don’t see they are accomplishing much.”

One of your humble blogger's frustrations through this ordeal has been the woeful lack of message discipline, this being another example.  Making the point about team play is fine, I'd just have nor muddied the waters with musing about the business model.  here's what I think he means, an example where the team competition affected individual play:

The final hole shed some insight into the team component of LIV Golf.

Koepka and Munoz both were about 40 feet away for birdie. Koepka went first and left the putt just over 4 feet away. Munoz needed to make birdie to force a playoff. However, his Torque team had a one-shot lead over the Smash team led by Koepka.

If he were to hit the putt too hard and three-putt for bogey, Munoz might have cost Torque the team title. He left it just under 4 feet short, and made the par for Torque to win a team competition for the first time.

“It’s weird, because I knew we were one stroke ahead on the team, so I couldn’t go extra. I knew I couldn’t be too aggressive,” Munoz said.

“He got the individual, we got the team. I call it a tie.”

Perhaps the OWGR folks should create a system of team rankings, wherein the Range Goats would rule.  But guys playing differently because of the team event seems rather an issue, no?

While this seems reasonable, I see no benefit in saying anything:

Waugh also revealed specifics of the battle over world ranking points, suggesting the ball is in LIV’s court, something the Saudi Arabia-backed league is refuting.

“There are certain parts of their structure that can be solved by math, but there may be some pretty fundamental things that are harder,” Waugh said. “There’s the potential conflict with the team aspect and then access - how do you get relegated and promoted?

“They had our latest response weeks ago and we haven’t heard back. They have made a bad assumption that this will be a quick process. It never has been. Every application has taken a year-plus as far as I’m aware.”

LIV’s one-year anniversary will be in July.

I've for some time expected them to receive OWGR points, assuming that those new strength of field metrics will result in only a minor allocation of points (that message discipline bit above relates to comments from Jon Rahm and Tiger on this very subject, which were strangely at odds with their tour's interests).  But I also saw a scenario under which they could offer conditional acceptance subject to meeting certain conditions, which is perhaps what Waugh is hinting at.

But then he goes rogue again:

Though Waugh did curiously suggest LIV and the PGA Tour work toward “some sort of agreement” and that The Masters “set the stage for, frankly, civility.”

I'm sure Jay appreciates your help, but I'm guessing the LIVsters won't find Seth's musings all that, what's the word, civil.

PGA Preview, Non-Liv Bits - We'll be flooding the zone this week, so I'll just scarf up some of the low hanging fruit, such as the TC panel leftovers:

1. Major No. 2 has arrived, as the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, N.Y., kicks off on Thursday. Jon Rahm is looking for his second straight major, Jordan Spieth still needs a win here to complete the career grand slam, and Tiger Woods won’t be among the field teeing it up. Name the best storyline you can’t wait to see unfold, plus another under-the-radar one.

Josh Sens: I’m curious to see which version of Rory McIlroy shows up. The addled, uncertain-looking Rory from Augusta, or the bouncy world-beater we know he can be. He was playing so well heading into the Masters this year. But that poor showing seemed to throw him for enough of a loop that he skipped the next designated event and has been quiet since. Whether he can return to form is something worth watching.

Dylan Dethier: That’s a good one, Josh. I’ll stick with the obvious — I’m intrigued to see how the top LIV guys fare against the best players from the rest of the world. LIV had a dream leaderboard at its Tulsa event over the weekend, with Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson battling for the top spot and Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau not far behind. On paper, they’d make sense for Oak Hill. How ‘bout in reality?

For under-the-radar storylines I guess I’m intrigued in the course setup; Kerry Haigh has earned nearly universal praise for his PGA setups the last few years. How high will they dial the difficulty at Oak Hill?

James Colgan: Best storyline? How about the best player alive with a real chance to go back-to-back in the first two majors of 2023? Most underrated story: Brooks Koepka with a post-Augusta head full of steam.

Not only did Josh not look ahead to the next question, but he didn't even seem to read this first one, as he missed the second part.  The LIV drama isn't going away, but what is James Colgan smoking?  Isn't the takeaway from the Masters that Koepka no longer finishes?

As for this guy, I'm not expecting mush:

4. Rory McIlroy finished in the top 10 in all of 2022’s majors, but he missed the cut at the Masters. What version of McIlroy will we see at Oak Hill?

Sens: I touched on this above. I think this is one of the more interesting questions heading into the week. My guess is that he will shake off the Augusta flu (a mental affliction for Rory) and that we will see the free-swinging, clear-headed McIlroy who has already won this event twice.

Dethier: I often tend towards optimism on McIlroy just because he’s been such a constant at the top of the game; when things are going poorly that’s typically a blip rather than a trend. The key will be what happens once things start to go sideways. At Augusta and again at Quail Hollow he seemed to get into full tilt mode; one mistake led to another and then another. A patient, confident McIlroy who gets off to a hot start should be a contender.

Colgan: I know how fickle hot streaks can be in pro golf, but Rory was one of the best players on earth for nine months before the Augusta debacle. I feel like it’s more likely we see that McIlroy than Augusta’s.

The good news is, that if he plays as he did at Augusta, we won't see much of him on camera.

Gonna wrap it here and ick things up as the week proceeds.   Check back early and often.

 

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