Thursday, October 6, 2022

Thursday Threads

What is that bright thing shining through my shutter slats?  Oh, the sun?  Yeah, that's right, I remember....

Golf tomorrow with Bobby D., so I'll next see you on Monday.  Full blogging will proceed this morning despite impeded access to my monitor:

Would you make the Emperor move?  But please excuse any resulting typos, especially those in the lower-left quadrant....

Strange Daze - I was given a bad rumor yesterday that LIV had been accepted for Official World Golf Ranking points, which struck me as an unlikely capitulation.  I now know what triggered that Fake News, and I'm not the only one that finds this saga odd:

LIV Golf's quest for World Ranking points is taking a strange twist

Stranger than signing PReed?  Yeah, I agree, that's an awfully high bar.... But, this is weird indeed:

Officials with LIV Golf, frustrated that the Board of Directors with the Official World Golf Ranking has not expedited a review of the Saudi-backed circuit’s application for accreditation, are trying
another avenue in order to have players earn OWGR points.

On Wednesday, the MENA Tour (short for Middle East and North Africa) announced a partnership with LIV Golf. LIV officials believe the partnership with MENA, which already has OWGR accreditation, will allow LIV events to begin receiving points immediately, starting with this week’s LIV Golf Invitational Bangkok.

“We are taking this mutually beneficial action to support the game at the developmental level and because of the importance and fairness of LIV golfers qualifying for OWGR points,” said Atul Khosla, president and COO of LIV Golf. “We’re pleased to create pathways that give more opportunities for young players, while also giving fans rankings that include all the world’s best golfers.”

The MENA Tour?  With apologies to John Lovitz, that's the ticket!  Of course, there's this niggling doubt because, well, I do so hate to harsh their mellow but.... First, they're already affiliated with a Tour recognized by the OWGR plus, and I want to ask this as respectively as possible, but what the f***k is the MENA Tour?

The MENA Tour was founded in 2011 and has mostly served as a developmental tour for players looking to eventually play in Europe, Asia and South Africa. In 2016, the Dubai-based tour, which ran roughly 10-15 events a year for purses of approximately $75,000 (LIV purses are $20 million), was awarded OWGR accreditation. The tour was canceled in 2018, and though it returned the following season, it has not staged any tournaments in more than two years. But as part of the announcement of the partnership with LIV (first reported by The Telegraph), the MENA Tour revealed it will return with a 2022-23 season that kicks off with this week’s LIV Golf Invitational Bangkok and includes LIV’s last two 2022 invitational events in Saudi Arabia and Miami as well as its 2023 lineup of 14 tournaments. All LIV golfers will automatically become members of the MENA Tour.

Oh, THAT MENA Tour... Yeah, sounds totally legit.  And they think they're getting OWGR points this week?

Of course, Greg, the old adage is that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy, although I prefer Mike Tyson's more cryptic version, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth":

However, whether the OWGR will award points for this week’s LIV event or any other LIV events in the near future is far from certain. Messages to the OWGR on the matter had not been returned as of this writing.

A source familiar with the workings of the OWGR technical committee, which is reviewing LIV’s initial application, told Golf Digest it’s unlikely the OWGR would award points for this week’s LIV event, saying that an alliance with another tour doesn’t initiate automatic inclusion of LIV Golf in the World Ranking. Furthermore, MENA risks becoming decertified because it appears MENA might be changing its competition format to align with LIV.

Well, the good news is that, when you haven't held an event in three years, decertification doesn't sting too badly...

Far more likely is that this is just a prong of LIV's warfare strategy:

Considering that LIV already has a partnership with a OWGR accredited tour in the Asian Tour raises the question of why the upstart circuit would need to reach out to MENA. A source told Golf Digest that LIV’s stalled launch in 2022 was part of the reasoning, and its lack of avenues for Asian Tour players to compete in LIV events—an issue LIV has addressed—was hindering that route.

Additionally, while LIV Golf officials are confident they will be included under MENA’s point umbrella, an OWGR denial could be part of LIV Golf’s antitrust lawsuit against the PGA Tour as well as a separate filing against the OWGR.

Is it possible that there could be trouble in paradise?  Let's remember that Greg Norman assured these guys that they couldn't possibly be suspended from the PGA Tour, and I would venture a guess that similar assurance were rendered about access to majors.  Whether they were sufficiently granular to included the OWGR we don't know, but I'm catching a whiff of something here....

Ryan Herrington apparently is sharing this olfactory moment:

If there feels like a bit of desperation in LIV Golf’s latest attempt to find a way for its events to offer Official World Golf Ranking points—partnering with the developmental MENA Tour that hasn’t held an event in more than two years—perhaps that’s understandable. Among the upstart Saudi-backed circuit’s remaining hurdles to legitimacy is being able to have its players earn OWGR points, primarily so that they can remain eligible to qualify for major championships in 2023.

Norman has seemed especially shrill lately, though the OWGR I would guess is just the most pressing issue.  I mean, the MENA Tour?  I don't care how the OWGR regulations are written, hiding behind the skirts of a tour that doesn't hold actual golf tournaments will make one look, well, Normanesque.

Herrington's interest is in seeing what's become of the defectors' rankings, and he's thoughtful enough to provide a chart:

A
As your grandmother might say, they made their bed....  I mean, I'm still laughing over the fact that some of these guys might have believed Norman's assurances.... Pro Tip: Never trust content from Greg Norman!

Interestingly, Geoff ties this story into the last 24-hour news cycle in ways that must have his liberal head exploding:

The vaunted MENA Tour is back after a three-year hiatus and ready to alter the course of major championship history. Or, so goes the logic around the latest LIV scheme for world ranking points and improved access to the big four events fans actually care about. In turn, these stupid little points would make LIV legitimate, thereby distracting the tours 100,000 streamers from noticing the nefarious activities of LIV’s Saudi backers.

That first link goes here:

In Rebuke to West, OPEC and Russia Aim to Raise Oil Prices With Big Supply Cut

Gee, Geoff, I don't know, isn't it their oil?   And isn't oil going to kill us?  So I'm little surprised that you're not all in on this decreased oil production... Are you perhaps, Geoff, revisiting the shear genius of shutting down domestic production?  No, of course not....

But I do like this formulation:

And that link goes here:

Putin and the prince: fears in west as Russia and Saudi Arabia deepen ties

Really, because you'd have to be Nostradamus to see that one coming... Just a reminder that Biden called the Saudis a "pariah regime", so good thing we don't have that guy in White House that alienates our allies any more....

But, closer to home, I'm guessing that the Justice Department antitrust investigation into the PGA Tour has lost any sense of urgency.  So, we've got that going for us...

This news was conveyed at the LIV Pro-Am party, where apparently Slugger White  busted some moves:

Amusing, but shall we let Geoff rant on?

There is sad news for those hoping to see Peter Uihlein improve on his World No. 329 status at the MENA-LIV Bangkok 48-ball: this exhibition is not yet listed on the OWGR tournament page and remains totally meaningless. But the lack of newsworthiness frees us up to read about LIV sugar-daddy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bonding over oil production cuts with Vladimir Putin. All with the expectations Westerners will forgive and forget the nefarious ways of these dictators once they’ve streamed some live, commercial-free LIV Golf.

Strange to see Geoff so concerned about the price of gas, when he lives in the People's Republic of California, where folks have been warned off trying to charge their EVs.  And, Geoff, any thoughts on our current strategy?  Stiffed by the noxious Saudis and the equally noxious Russians, we're now desperately trying to rehabilitate the Venezuelan regime.  Everything is going swimmingly, at least until the lights go out this winter.

The good news, though, is that golf is the least of it....

The Ryder Cup Hype - Luke Donald and Zach Johnson spent a day beclowning themselves in Rome, apparently under the impression that we'll have a Ryder Cup next September.  I wish I was as sanguine, though Geoff had this brief summary of the captains' comments:

Luke Donald expects Europe to be underdogs. “I fully expect us to be underdogs despite that home percentage of wins over the last 30 years.”

Zach Johnson is not buying it. “Do I really think the Europeans are underdogs? I can give you a
one-word answer: No. They are not underdogs. They are on their home soil.”

Johnson “does not know” what Tiger’s role will be yet. “I can't put this mildly: He loves The Ryder Cup. He has made it a priority of his, and certainly Team USA. He wants to be a part of it as best he can.”

Donald explained why he got six Captain’s picks, up from three: “I think there's definitely been times in the past where some players have managed to win seven, eight months out and been kind of almost guaranteed to make the team. I think giving myself more picks will give me an opportunity to pick the best in-form team.”

Donald is not beholden to analytics. “When it comes to forming pairings, statistics are important but it's also important to rely on your instincts which is what we relied on before. So it's a mixture of using technology and using your instincts to get the win.”

Johnson calls Marco Simone “a very high-character” golf course. “I feel it requires everything. I mean, it has a lot of hills, so it's the battle of the fittest, which makes sense, and then the character side of it. It's got left, right, up, down, every which way….it's going to require everybody on both sides to have all elements of their game to be on, and I think that's a true test of the golf course.”

Donald is brushing up on Rome. “The Colosseum obviously is iconic when it comes to Rome, built back in 80 A.D., I was reading up about it. Still the biggest amphitheater ever be to built. It's amazing they were able to do such amazing things back so many years ago.”

Johnson loves Rome. “Unbelievable hosts. Unbelievable hospitality. You can tell there's a lot of passion and desire to just want to host us and certainly The Ryder Cup. I'm grateful for that. But it's been a whirlwind. Whether you are talking the Pantheon to the Colosseum to the Spanish Steps to Marco Simone, I've had a taste of it all, and on that note, a lot of great food.”

Obviously, they're fighting over the mantle of underdog, which to me does capture the essence of this installment, which feels to me somewhat critical.  I think you have trend lines that go in opposite directions, the resolution thereof being of interest.  Recent editions have been resounding home victories, making road games look to be big asks.  But the countervailing trend is that the talent advantage seems to be tilting decidedly to the Yanks, as Europe's roster projects to be historically weak.

But can we all agree that Tiger can be a dick?  I mean, why isn't he announced as an Assistant Captain?  It can only be because he's refused to commit to being there, and see if you find any of this convincing:

“I can’t put this mildly—he loves the Ryder Cup,” Johnson said Tuesday as part of a news conference in Rome with European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald. “He has made it a priority of his, and certainly Team USA. He wants to be a part of it as best he can. Obviously, he’s gone through some things as of late that make it difficult, whether it’s travel or what have you.”

Just wanna be clear here, Zach, he can lay in three majors but can't commit to driving a cart in Rome?  

I find this quite bizarre and off-putting, not least because isn't he that captain-apparent for Bethpage 2025?  Obviously that was gonna be Phil's moment, but the only logical way to fill that void is with Tiger, no?

Shall we fire up the Wayback Machine and revisit this telling comment from 2002?  Yeah, that question was rhetorical:

No one can accuse Tiger Woods of looking ahead to next week’s Ryder Cup.

Woods birdied the last two holes Thursday for a seven-under 65 to take a one-stroke lead over David Toms and Steve Lowery in the American Express Championship at Thomastown, Ireland, a tournament he said means more to him than winning that little exhibition next week at The Belfry.

Asked which was more important, Woods chose an individual title and the $1-million check over a team victory and a 14-inch gold chalice.

“Why? I can think of a million reasons,” Woods said.

But sure, Zach, he loves the Ryder Cup....

Hard to not agree with Tron here:

Well, maybe, although I'm hoping they'll just crawl back into their hole for a while.

Since somebody mentioned the Ryder Cup, I've had this tab open for a while and I have no idea what to do with this piece, except of course to mock it:

The Numbers Game: After Presidents Cup win, Team USA's secret weapon is ready for the 2023 Ryder Cup

A secret weapon?  Yeah, that's the ticket....


The first thing that anyone who works at Scouts Consulting will tell you is that they're overrated. They don't matter, the media makes too much of them, and in fact, now that you mention it, they might not even exist. The second thing they'll tell you is …

Well, there is no second thing, because when you ask about the secret sauce that informs their statistical and non-quantitative analysis, and how it helped Team USA win two of the last three Ryder Cups and last week's Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow, you might as well knock on the front doors at CIA headquarters in Langley and ask to spend a few hours with their files. And frankly, why would you want to know? They're nobody! Sure, maybe the minute they finish chatting with you, you'll spot them in deep conversation on a golf cart with Davis Love III, who called them "invaluable." And, sure, maybe they've gotten closer to the team in an actual physical sense every time they’ve worked a new event since the first in 2016. And, sure, maybe they'll be an integral part of Team USA's strategy as they try to win a Ryder Cup in Europe next fall for the first time since 1993. But come on, go easy, move along: There's nothing to see here.

Before we get to the elusive bit of what they do, let's take a second to parse those qualification, which has your humble blogger laughing out loud.

  • It is technically true that the U.S. has won two of the last three Ryder Cups, but we all understand that home game issue.  But tell me about 2018, guys, when your vaunted big data apparently concluded that Phil should play foursomes.  I don't know much, but a man that hasn't hit a fairway since the Carter administration seemed a bad fit for that format...
  • Are we really crowing over that Prez Cup win against an historically-weak International team?  Weren't we winning Prez Cups without you guys?
But, I hear you asking, what is it they do?

So what do they actually do?

In a broad sense, they assist the captains with everything from match pairings to personality questionnaires to course set-up to overall strategy to you-name-it. They're on hand if historical questions come up (how many rookies have been captain's picks, and how did they do?), and if a captain has an idea that he wants to vet with the numbers, Scouts are at his service. Critical to all of this are their "models," which are weighted specifically to evaluate various statistical inputs and churn out optimal strategies. If that sounds like a simplistic explanation, well, it is; as Jee himself told me, while we walked around Quail Hollow and I asked about the evolution model, and how the weights have changed (i.e., what elements, from recent play to course fit to specific skills matter the most), "it would be unbelievably difficult for me to articulate in what I believe to be a safe way." In other words, even if he let me peek behind the curtain—which he wouldn't—I wouldn't understand what I was seeing.

So, you're saying that we can't understand the complexity of your worldview?   Bonus points for anyone that gets that literary reference....

But my BS detector is in the red zone, so lets' see if they can explain further:

Still, you can start to get a sense of the complexity by asking yourself basic questions about, say, lineup formation. Pretend you're the American captain, and in the foursomes (alternate shot) session, you want to play Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler together. The first thing you might look at is which player should tee off on the odd and even holes. Maybe one is better on par 3s, and it just so happens that all the par 3s are even holes (as was the case at Quail Hollow). Or maybe one has an approach-game vulnerability from certain yardages that would rear its head based on the other player's drives on odd holes, but not even. Maybe one of them is a better putter, and the way things shake out, the player who tees off on odd holes will be taking the first putt on 12 of 18 holes (again, as was the case at Quail Hollow). In a Ryder Cup, maybe they could even suggest spots on the course where the rough should be cut down (or grown out, to count for opponents' tendencies). But wait—how does pairing Scheffler and Burns affect the rest of the pairings for that session? Will the ripple effects compromise the captain’s options in statistical or extra-statistical ways? What about the rest of the weekend? How might it fit the plan or throw everything out of whack? And where in the lineup should they be playing, to give them the best potential advantage considering the opponents' tendencies? Oh, and what balls do each of them play, and assuming it's an acceptable match, does it also jive when you factor in the other pairings? And how would the expected wind affect it?

I have no grudge against analytics, but much of this is laugh-out-loud funny.  I can't help but be reminded of that 2004 Ryder Cup, the one where Hap Sutton famously paired Tiger and Phil.  One of my stock bits from that Cup was that the famous pairing was merely the second stupidest thing that Hal Sutton did on the famous Friday, so you'll want to know which was the first.  Oakland Hills also had all four Par-3's as either the even or odd holes (doesn't matter which), so how would you have handled the Fred Funk - Davis Love III pairing?  Fred Funk had one conspicuous skill in golf, he hit every fairway he saw, so naturally he let Fred hit the tee ball on four of those Par-3s (which he reversed on Saturday, though Funk was paired with Jim Alas Poor Furyk.

As a pure aside, I actually had argued at the time that it was a perfect opportunity to pair Funk with Tiger in foursomes, as putting Tiger in nine fairways (not to mention letting Tiger play all four one-shotters) seemed an incredibly promising opportunity.  

But my larger point is, as right as these guys might be about who should tee off on the odd holes, is it something we need big data to understand?  Isn't it all rather basic?

But that sound you hear is your humble blogger slapping his forehead:

They had warned me during our conversation that no matter how well the planning went, no matter what advantages America had, these events could always be lost due to sheer randomness on a bad week.

Ya think?  isn't that pretty much the same as this Tom Watson rebuttal of St. Phil at that infamous 2014 Ryder Cup press conference?

I had a different philosophy as far as being a captain of this team. You know, it takes 12 players to win. It's not pods. It's 12 players.

So sure, we have a secret weapon.  What could go wrong?

Have a great weekend and we'll pick things up on Monday.

 

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