Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Weekend Wrap - Barrell-Aged Edition

Sorry again about the disruptive blogging schedule.  You'll no doubt expect the insights to be that much more refined, so perhaps you should give me at least until tomorrow...

The Event - Daniel Rappaport has eighteen parting thoughts from Royal St. George's, beginning at an obvious place:

1: We start, as always, with the winner. Coming into this week, the scouting report on Collin Morikawa read something like: very solid off the tee, incredible iron player, poor putter. The chief support for that description is found in the PGA Tour’s stat ecosystem, which has him leading strokes gained/tee-to-green and 172nd in strokes gained/putting for the 2020-21 season. And yet, he now has two major championships to his name and putted beautifully in both. At TPC Harding Park last August, he led the field in strokes gained/putting, the only time he’s ever done that, en route to winning this PGA Championship title. The Open did not offer putting statistics, but the man himself felt it was “as solid as it’s going to get,” and the eye test confirms. You have to think he’d have ranked somewhere inside the top 10.

“Yeah, everything about my stats say I'm not a good putter statistically,” Morikawa said on Sunday. “I feel like I can get a lot better. But in these situations, I feel like everything is thrown off the table. Forget about all your stats … who can perform well in these situations? That's why I think over the past few majors you've seen a lot of the same names up there, because they believe in their game, they know what they're doing when they practice, and they're able to bring it out in these big moments.”

Zinger and the NBC crew were all over one important issue,  ensuring that the engraver included both "L's" in the winner's given name.  But here's an issue I've never seen addressed...  I know you'll have trouble making out the names in the photo above, but they include venue and winning score.  Jordan's 2017 line indicates that he won at Royal Birkdale, but Collin's will say that his victory came at "Sandwich".  Why doesn't St. George's (or Liverpool) get the "Royal" treatment? 

To finish Daniel's thoughts:

Perhaps we should take a hint from Brooks Koepka and start truly conceptualizing major championship golf and PGA Tour golf as two entirely separate entities. The “major gear” is absolutely a real thing; so while PGA Tour Collin might not be the best putter, Major Championship Collin is doing just fine.

But isn't the more compelling question whether Collin, not the best putter out there, was somehow helped by the slower greens?  

This to me is interesting, though I'm not at all sure I agree with his conclusions:

7: In the two years since Royal Portrush, golf fans have become accustomed to a certain standard of technological offering. The PGA Tour has since launched TourCast—every office manager’s worst nightmare—for it allows fans to real-time track every single group. The Masters has a similar tracking feature and almost instantaneously posts video of every shot hit. The U.S. Open and PGA aren’t quite on the same level, but they have developed live tracking within their apps and also now provide strokes-gained data, the lifeblood of golf stats nerds everywhere. The Open has fallen woefully behind in this department. There is no live tracking of any holes, and the only stats available on the website are the now-antiquated fairways hit, greens in regulation and putting average. For one of the world’s biggest golf tournament to, in 2021, still be stuck in the analog age defies belief—especially with the rise of golf betting, when so many have interest in analyzing advanced statistics and watching players outside the featured groups, the R&A must modernize to provide a better experience for those following from their couches.

I have little problem with them being old school.... 

I've skipped his bits on Louis and Bryson, since I'll need to deal with those lads in greater depth.  But here he says the quiet part out loud:

9: Given the hot-take climate of the modern media space, there’s an urge to chalk up Rory McIlroy’s major drought—now guaranteed to carry into its eighth year—to some larger narrative.
On Friday, a journalist proposed the theory that he might be trying too hard to add that fifth major. McIlroy’s response was telling:

“Not at all. I’ve got four of them. Geez, look, I’ve got—I’m the luckiest guy in the world. I get to do what I love for a living. I have a beautiful family. My life is absolutely perfect at the minute. I want for nothing, so it’s not a case of trying too hard for sure.”

If all you care about is Rory winning majors, those won’t be your favorite seven sentences to read. Fans expect their athletes to be unsatisfied and hungry—“I just want more,” as 24-year-old Morikawa put it after his victory. But McIlroy is not 24, and who among us cannot understand a gazillionaire athlete who’s already a Hall of Famer perhaps not feeling the same urgency he did a decade ago? Is enjoying what you’ve earned the worst thing in the world?

Here I must paraphrase the estimable Mark Steyn in noting that it's a long way to travel for the purpose of phoning it in.  But yes, Rory is acting and playing like a man content to end his career with those four majors, and nice of Rory to confirm it.

On the one hand, this guy did have a great week, and shows an amazing amount of tenaciousness and acceptance:

13: We can all learn a lesson in acceptance from Marcel Siem. The fist-pumping, man-bun-
sporting 41-year-old from Germany who the cameras could not look away from this week. Siem has four European Tour titles and a brief stint inside the world top 50 on his résumé. After that fourth victory, he decided life as an occasional winner wasn’t cutting it, tried to start swinging like Dustin Johnson, and fell off the golfing planet. The Open marked the 13th straight week he played a tournament, and 10 of those came on the bare-bones Challenge Tour—so bare-bones that he didn’t have a caddie for half those events. Here was a 40-year-old man, with millions in career earnings, lugging his own bag around fan-less tournaments in the minor leagues.

“Richard Bland, Gregory Havret—there’s a lot guys in my age going back to the Challenge Tour,” Siem said Friday. “If you don’t accept that you lost your card, and you still think you’re a European Tour player, and there should be a caddie around you, and you should be play for €2 million, you cannot compete on the Challenge Tour. There’s no chance. You’re grumpy, you’re upset all the time. Once you make friends on the Challenge Tour and accept that’s where I am, that’s the only way forward. I’m so happy that I understood that. … You have to show the Challenge Tour some respect.”

In related news, Siem won on the Challenge Tour the week before the Open and, with his excellent T-15 at Royal St. George’s, assured a return to the European Tour. None of it would’ve happened had he not banished his pride and welcomed his new reality. The past is exactly that. It’s what happens next that determines your future.

Fine or, more accurately, it would be fine, except for the man-bun....

The Victor - Today in silly headers:

Collin Morikawa’s grace in victory instills sense of decorum to professional golf

Instills?  Yanno, the game is hundreds of years old, and Collin has been with us only the last two...

Collin Morikawa looked more humanitarian than he did pro golfer. As he stood in front of thousands as the newest Champion Golfer of the Year — the first crowned in the last two years — the 24-year-old spoke with incredible poise.

He congratulated the low amateur, Matthias Schmid. He praised the crowd. He thanked his family — he told them he loved them. He wished his caddie, who turned 39 on Sunday, a happy birthday. (The crowd joined in, bursting into song.) He spoke of fans returning, about giving thanks. Those fans, remember, weren’t at this first major win. Standing there on Sunday, in the warm English sunshine, Morikawa said he had chills.

Morikawa’s speech on the 18th green at Royal St. George’s lasted barely three minutes. No one’s suggesting it was the Gettysburg Address, but it was 180 seconds that reminded of the good in golf. There were no PIP plays, no trolling, no digs or quips. It was the kind of speech that surely drew nods of approval across the golf world, from the Royal & Ancient clubhouse to muni grill rooms.

What about in Ponte Vedra Beach?  Somehow I think they've tuned out that frequency...

Look, Collin is a great kid and his words in the aftermath of his win were pitch perfect, just nothing new in our great game.  They didn't instill decorum or grace, they reflected that which has been a part of our game for centuries.   I enjoy the obvious digs at Bryson and Brooks as much as the next guy, but they're the outliers...

This would seem rather more the point, though:

The Open 2021: Why Collin Morikawa’s second major should scare his competition

 His argument is captured in his lede graph:

Collin Morikawa captured his first major with a chip-in and an all-time drive. He earned his reputation as golf’s premier ball-striker with a metronomic iron swing. He’d really be something, the thinking went, if he could just find common ground with the putter. The all-time greats find the bottom when they need it most.

That's the question, isn't it?  He's the Tour's best iron player, by a lot, but has been one of the worst, at least statistically, with the flatstick.  So, has he found something or was it a glorious one-off (and the R&A being old school means we don't have the usual strokes gained metrics to quantify his putting prowess last week).  

But compare this with Rory's comments above:

“At 24 years old, it's so hard to look back at the two short years that I have been a pro and see what I've done because I want more,” said the Champion Golfer of the Year, the claret jug by his side. “I enjoy these moments and I love it, and I want to teach myself to embrace it a little more, maybe spend a few extra days and sit back and drink out of this. But I want to—yeah, I just want more.”

Doesn't mean he'll get it, but it won't be for lack of effort.  I've had this tab open for a while, and it's interesting to consider in light of Collin's second major:

Is winning a major an effective or misleading predictor of success? Yes

For every Ben Curtis there's a Retief Goosen or Collin Morikawa.  Back in the day, I tried differentiating based upon how they won.  For instance, I discounted Curtis because he won that Open without having to hit a shot when he had a chance to win (he was in the clubhouse when Thomas Bjorn lost his mind).  Whereas guys like Shaun Micheel and Todd Hamilton played at or near the lead all week, and held up beautifully.  Of course Curtis had a far better post-major career than those two, so there goes that logic.

Golf.com's Tour Confidential panel had some thoughts as well:

1. Collin Morikawa, at just 24 years old, won the 2021 Open Championship to claim his second major title in eight career major starts. Morikawa outplayed Louis Oosthuizen and then held off Jordan Spieth to lift the Claret Jug. What most sticks out about Morikawa’s victory?

Jessica Marksbury: His poise. He just didn’t miss a shot. Stayed even-keel. So impressive. I was

among those who thought Louis’ extensive final-round-of-a-major experience would bring home the trophy today, but it was Morikawa’s talent and composure that ultimately prevailed.

Sean Zak: That putter never wavered. I think we’ll come to learn a lot about his abilities the more years go by, but his bugaboo to this point was a balky putter. But you wouldn’t have known it watching Sunday. Or the rest of this week for that matter. He’s fully capable of playing that clinical, maddeningly boring golf that peak Tiger did so often. Simply better than you, do something about it.

Zephyr Melton: He never made a mistake. Each time he hit a wayward shot, he immediately got back into position, finishing without a bogey for the last 31 holes. Just an impressive display from a player in total control of his game.

Alan Bastable: His bludgeoning the course to death with one beautifully controlled iron after another iron is the obvious answer, but I also was struck by Morikawa’s Obama-like cool in victory — or, more to the point, after victory. What 24-year-old dedicates the first 20 seconds of his victory speech to the low amateur — complete with a pep talk?! That was such a cool moment. He was like Federer up there after his eighth Wimbledon win, not his first.

Josh Sens: There’s supposed to be a steep learning curve in championship links golf. Talk about a quick study. I wouldn’t go so far as to say he didn’t make any mistakes. But he didn’t compound any of his mistakes. Great recoveries. No three-putts. The kind of patience of a guy twice his age with the un-scarred nerves of the youngster whom he is.

James Colgan: How boring it was. Not in a bad way. Morikawa just had it in a vice grip from the second he took the lead. Speaking as a 24-year-old, it’s impressive someone my age could do anything that well.

Dylan Dethier: When he has a lead, this guy can just strangle the field because he can play “conservative” golf so well. It helped me understand Tiger Woods’ dominance better, strangely.

Yanno, I've long been aware of his reputation as the best iron player in the game.  But, even with that as my expectation level, I was blown away by the precision with which he hit those irons.

There was a hole in the final round that caught my eye, a Par-4 on which Collin made birdie.  Both his drive and approach barely evaded the dreaded pot bunkers, so my first reaction related to the obvious role of luck in links golf.  But as I thought further about his approach shot, which landed barely above a bunker and settled underneath the pin, I realized that it was his control of his irons that allowed him to play that approach shot, whereas most of the guys were landing it a full club past the front pin.

 The TC panel then took on the putting issue directly:

2. Morikawa entered this week ranked 172nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, yet was great on the greens all week and didn’t three-putt once. We know he’s a brilliant ball-striker and that his putting has been his weakness, so was this week the new norm or an outlier? What kind of Morikawa should we expect to see in future majors?

Marksbury: This week seemed like an outlier in several ways — the hot, sunny weather, lack of wind, slow greens. Maybe that all contributed. But even we recreational players have days or even multiple rounds where putting just seems natural. Could have been one of those weeks for Morikawa, too.

Zak: Definitely the outlier, but Tour players play for outlier weeks. Weeks where it all clicks. They try to make sure their tee-to-green game is airtight so that the flatstick can get hot and carry them. That’s kind of how winning is most often done on that level.

Melton: One week does not make for a trend. It was definitely a great week with the flatstick, but I still think it will be his weakness heading forward.

Bastable: The new norm? Looked like the old norm to me. Nothing we’ve seen from Morikawa since he burst on to the pro scene two years ago suggested he wasn’t capable of this kind of week. Guess the next big question to address is can he win a U.S. Open and green jacket wielding two putting strokes?

Sens: Golf is fickle. Putting might be the most fickle part of it of all. We’ll see much more of this from Morikawa. In every major? No. But often.

Colgan: He’s either set to become the best two-grip putter of our generation, or he’s in the process of becoming the guy he eventually wants to be. My bet is on the latter.

Dethier: Slow greens change things, and these were slow greens. Also, Morikawa’s caddie suggested a putter grip tweak at the beginning of the week — standard, rather than “saw grip,” on longer putts. Good call!

I think Sean Zak found the sweet spot.  The Tour is no longer about week-to-week consistency, but seems to have evolved to a stage where the guys are playing for a handful of big weeks, with the putter typically driving the variability.

For the moment, I'm left with this question.  Among the following players, who will be the first to complete their career Grand Slam:

  1. Rory McIrlroy
  2. Phil Mickelson
  3. Jordan Spieth
  4. Collin Morikawa 
See what I did there?  I know, it's blindingly obvious, but those top three only need the one additional title, and yet I like the chances of Morikawa far better.

One last bit from our Champion Golfer of the Year:

Collin Morikawa lugging the claret jug through the airport, flying commercial, is Reason No. 247 he’s so likable

 

That's from Atlanta, though I would have thought he'd be en route to Tokyo...

Louie, Louie - This one was pretty tough to watch, though this header seems ill-considered:

Louis Oosthuizen’s major play won’t get the appreciation it deserves

Isn't the bigger problem that it will?

I don't think there's much comfort to be found within:

Louis Oosthuizen is not a choke artist.

I agree, though the fact that you have to say it out loud is pretty much the issue. 

Let’s start there, to get it out of the way. He began Sunday’s finale at the Open Championship
with a one-stroke lead, he played lackluster golf and he did not win the tournament. He has done similar things before. But he did finish T3, marking another spectacular major showing from the 38-year-old. The fact that his Sunday showing is considered a failure is another reminder that we’re not very good at thinking about this sort of thing. It should be a reminder that we can celebrate his terrific showings while still wondering what might have been.

At the last three major championships, this is the list of players who have beaten Louis Oosthuizen:

Phil Mickelson
Jon Rahm
Collin Morikawa
Jordan Spieth

Not a shabby list. While we’re at it, here are the male golfers under the age of 50 who have more runner-up finishes at majors than Oosthuizen:

Tiger Woods.

Yeah, I'm guessing that's not gonna make Louis feel any better.

Interesting, Louis himself spoke of his major heartbreak last Thursday:

Oosthuizen was asked on Thursday about how he managed to bounce back from the disappointment of close calls at the previous two majors this season, and he gave a telling response.

“It depends if you lost it or someone else beat you,” he said. “I think in both of those I was beaten by better golf at the end there. It takes a little while, but it’s sort of – you have to get over it quickly, otherwise it’s going to hold you back to perform again.”

 Yeah, and which was this most recent?  

On a related note, I thought Paul Azinger had a pretty awful weak behind the microphone, though I though the rampaging Twitter hordes were a little unfair on this one:

The Open 2021: Paul Azinger made a bold call about Louis Oosthuizen on Sunday, and Twitter ripped it apart

 


Characterizing it as his last chance was perhaps overly dramatic, but I think his basic point holds up in the aftermath.  It only gets harder and, at age 38, it's unclear how many more opportunities there will be.  

The tic of Zinger's that got me was his characterization of one player's ball flight (and forgive me, but I think he was talking about Morikawa, but 48 hours after that fact I can't remember for certain) as a knuckleball.... For God's sakes, man, you're sitting in Stamford, CT, don't pretend that you can see the arc of a shot from 5,000 miles away.

I don't know what to make of Louis at this point, but the elephant in the corner is that he's played poorly on the weekends.  I don't want to be unduly harsh and it takes a good player to create these opportunities, but he's just not the same guy on Sundays, and it serves no purpose to ignore that uncomfortable fact.

On Jordan - On Saturday I watched the proceedings on tape, but ran out of time before the finish.  Imagine my surprise when I checked the final leaderboard....  I have nothing to add, therefore, on Jordan kicking away a golden opportunity, but Dylan Dethier was all over the strangest bit:

9. The Tunnel Run

The entire end of Jordan Spieth‘s Saturday round was an oddity unto itself. He missed a two-footer for a final-hole bogey, then took off running up the tunnel, like he was either A. so frustrated he couldn’t just walk or B. desperate to find a restroom, which would explain some putting discomfort.

Wassup with this:

I though this was a bit odd as well:

1. Age, Just A Number

There was an interesting moment in Jordan Spieth‘s post-tournament press conference where he was singing the praises of the tournament champion and then took a stab at his age.

“Is he 21? Is that it? How old is he? I don’t even know,” Spieth said.

Morikawa is, in fact, 24. This is not a shot at Spieth for not knowing. But it is interesting the way we think about golfers and their ages. Morikawa still feels extremely fresh on the scene, but he’s still a college graduate. He didn’t come out early enough to match the prodigy of Rory McIlroy or of Spieth himself. He’s young — but so were those guys.

When McIlroy won the last of his four majors, he was 25 years and 3 months old, about eight months older than Morikawa is now. When Spieth won the last of his three majors, he was four days shy of his 24th birthday. When Justin Thomas won his first and (so far) only major, he was 24, a couple months younger than Morikawa is now.

The point here is not that Morikawa is old. He’s not! Brooks Koepka was 27 before he won his first of four majors. Instead, the point is that when McIlroy, Spieth and Thomas won their most recent majors, it felt like the floodgates were just opening. It’s not always that easy. There’s an instinct to pencil Morikawa in for 10 majors over the course of his career. Instead, for now, let’s appreciate this one.

He’s still quite young, after all.

Dylan gets the recency bias thing for sure, though in this case the kid has done it twice already.

But isn't 27 a bit early to be yelling at the kids to get off your lawn?  

I do need to get going at this point, so we'll continue tomorrow (hopefully, as our Wednesday game is in the p.m., though there are weather issues), with any necessary Bryson v. Brooks (and really, isn't it all becoming increasingly tiresome?) thoughts.  There's other news as well, so don't be a stranger.

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