Weekend Wrap

It's true that I had informed you there would be no blogging today, but surely you've noticed my tendency to, well, lie.  No snow in Utah led to the cancellation of my trip, so let's savor the additional time together.

The Year Ahead - Those of us that wear glasses saw 2020 through fogged-up lenses, causing your humble blogger to speculate on whether those crystal balls are similarly opaque.  Shall we start with the New Year's weekend version of the Tour Confidential Panel?  Yeah, that was rhetorical, you don't actually get a vote:

1. Another calendar year is upon us, which means it’s time to dust off your crystal golf balls and prognosticate about what the next 12 months hold for the golf world. We’ll start with an

easy one: The 2020-21 PGA Tour and 2021 LPGA Players of the Year will be …

Sean Zak: Dustin Johnson on the PGA Tour. The robot wins again. Danielle Kang, another Harmon disciple, on the LPGA Tour. She scratched the surface in 2020. She smashes through it, with another major, in ‘21.

Wow, brave pick there, Sean.  But riddle me this, if he's a robot shouldn't he have won more majors?

Dylan Dethier: Xander Schauffele on the men’s side — a major and three other wins gets it done. On the women’s side, I was so impressed with Jin Young Ko’s finish to the season that I think if she plays enough in 2021, she’ll take down the title.

James Colgan: Justin Thomas for the men. He’s been too close to a truly dominant season for too long, and I think he finds another gear with a major and a handful of regular-season wins. For the women, I like Nelly Korda. She’s still young, but she’s already logged top 10s in a bunch of majors and nabbed three LPGA Tour wins. Maybe I’m a year early, but I like Nelly in ’21.

Josh Sens: All sound picks above, but 2021 will bring us a major, among other wins, for POY Jon Rahm. On the women’s side, as much as my heart says Lydia Ko, my head says Jin Young Ko. Not sure how anyone could go against her.

Nick Piastowski: Can’t argue with any of the above picks. For the men, I’ll add in Patrick Cantlay. His game plays anywhere, and this year, he wins a major, along with a handful of other tournaments. For the women, let’s include Brooke Henderson. Nine wins and 54 top 10s by age 23 is a good base to start from.

A little passive-aggressive there, Nick.  Of course you can argue, it's the whole point, and argue you did in putting forth your own slate.  But to this observer Brooke Henderson has been going the wrong direction...

Though isn't the most interesting bit the name that wasn't mentioned?  They do get to him, it just takes a few more questions:

4. With three starts under his belt in the 2020-21 season, Bryson DeChambeau is averaging a Tour-best 337.8 yards per drive, which is 15 yards longer than his Tour-best 2019-20 average. True or false: In 2021, DeChambeau will become the first player to average north of 330 yards in driving distance?

 And wait 'till you see one of those intervening queries...  

Zak: False. He’ll give it one helluva run, but come up just shy. 328 yards is my prediction, and it should scare the living crap out of everyone watching.

Dethier: Yes. I think he’ll be selective enough with his schedule to play big-bomber courses, and

he’s only shown a determination to increase his speed off the tee. Why not 330?

Zak: I actually don’t think he’ll be selective. He wants to prove his approach works everywhere. He certainly thinks it can.

Colgan: Oh yeah. 330 is only a seven-yard bump to his 2020 number. If the 48-inch driver comes out, we might even see him average 335. (And I agree with Zak — if Bryson won this way at Winged Foot, I don’t think he’ll be scared of Harbour Town.)

Sens: Yes, but the idea that he’s going to dominate simply by out-bombing everyone else is silly, part of our distorting infatuation with length. He’ll hit it plenty far and win along the way, but when he does, credit will go as much to other aspects of his game, as was shown at Winged Foot.

Piastowski: Yes. He’s said himself he’s not done adding. He found success with his distance last year, and so the natural inclination is to take it further, no pun intended.

Milestones generate interest, though 330 seems a tad arbitrary over which to obsess.  The more interesting subject would be the conversion of that raw power into success on the golf course, say wins.  As we've discussed ad nauseum, we've seen this guy employ sweat equity and improve every aspect of his game, so I'm kinda curious to see where the ceiling might be.

 This was an interesting take:

2. Which player not currently in the top 50 of the OWGR has the best chance to be in the top 10 by this time next year?

Zak: The man with the divisor on his side and the ball-striking to back it up: Will Zalatoris. After him, Cameron Champ.

Dethier: The smart money has to be on Zalatoris (No. 59), the nostalgic money has to be on Jordan Spieth (No. 82) and the flat-brim money has to be on Rickie Fowler (No. 53). But I’ll go with Corey Conners, who hits it so good he could win a couple times and contend in a couple more to sneak up to No. 10.

Colgan: Dang — I can’t believe Dylan stole my pick. Conners is money, and it seems like only a matter of time until he’s a household name. For the sake of argument, I’ll roll with a name off the World Amateur Golf Ranking: Andy Ogletree. The former U.S. Amateur champ and Masters low-am turned pro in November and is the most decorated rookie in the incoming class. It’s a dice roll, but I’ll take it.

Sens: Sebastian Munoz was a star ascendant this past year. I’m expecting a continued rise.

Piastowski: Let’s go with Sam Horsfield. For a stretch last year, he was one of the hottest players in the world. He could be the next big European star. I’ll also toss in Doc Redman. The breakthrough is coming.

That Will Zalatoris boomlet amuses me, if only because I just haven't formed an opinion of my own yet.  But props to the writers for their interesting group of players, out of whom Corey Connors would get my vote.  He's just that good a ball-striker...

 Of course, Dylan Dethier seemingly through out every name he could think of in order to be able to claim later in the year that he predicted their resurgence.  But this need to cling to our fallen heroes has reached the point of requiring an intervention.  How else to explain that, in previewing 2021, they analyze this guy's prospects before getting to Bryson?

3. Jordan Spieth, winless since the 2017 Open Championship and now 82nd in the world, has become one of the game’s great enigmas. (Rankings-wise, he’s no longer even among the top 30 players under the age of 30.) By the end of 2021, will Spieth have climbed back into the world top 50? Why/why not?

Is Jordan an enigma?

noun

a person or thing that is mysterious, puzzling, or difficult to understand.

"Madeleine was still an enigma to him"

To this observer, he's been a consistently poor professional golfer for several years now, so that's exactly my expectation for him.  You're not a science-denier, are you?

Zak: Nope. And to be fair, it won’t take much for him to get there. A couple good finishes is all it might take. But I think he’s shown that he’s further away from breaking out of the funk than every optimist wants to give him credit for. Disclaimer: I’d love to see him back winning again! Not a hater. Just a realist.

Dethier: Yes. A new approach (and a new coach) in the new year won’t get Spieth back to top-five world-beating status, but he’ll do enough to finish the year at the edge of the top 30, thanks to a T4 at Augusta and a T6 at the Open.

Colgan: Yes. He might never be 2016 Jordan Spieth again, but he’s not as bad as his ranking would indicate. With a caveat that he addresses some of the road blocks in his professional life first, I think he’ll get back into the top 50 again.

Sens: I hope so, and I think so. In part, because as Sean says above, it wouldn’t take much. And there’s too much fight in Spieth to write him off.

Piastowski: Yes. I agree that nothing lately really says otherwise. But there have been moments on the Spieth roller coaster. And why can’t a three-time major champion string together a few moments over a few rounds, over even a few tournaments? Of course, this answer could have been just copied and pasted from the past couple of years. But it has to happen. Right???

At least they spared us a Rickie question... 

This will serve as your laugh of the day:

5. The USGA and R&A said the next update to the Distance Insights Project is scheduled to be released in March. (As a reminder, in the original report, published last February, the governing bodies concluded that the “100-year trend of hitting distance increases in golf, as well as a corresponding increase in the length of golf courses…is detrimental to the game’s long-term future.”) Over the course of the next year, how likely are we to see meaningful action from the governing bodies on the distance issue?

Action?  Surely, or is it Shirley, you jest

Zak: Meaningful action? Very unlikely. You won’t see it from the PGA Tour or the PGA of America or Augusta National. The R&A are focused on getting their championships back up and

running, so this feels like it sits entirely on the shoulders of the USGA. I trust them to make a move eventually, but not in 2021.

Dethier: In 2021, we’re going to get some clarity on the USGA’s plans for the future, but right now, we’re in an uncertain world in which golf is currently thriving — it’s a tricky time to make sweeping changes. (Note: It’s always a tricky time to make sweeping changes, which is one big reason why they never get made …)

Colgan: Call me a skeptic, but if it took 100 years to conclude distance was a bad idea, I’ve got a sneaking suspicion it might take longer than 13 months to find a meaningful fix.

Sens: Meaningful action, as in a limited-flight ball or some immediately imposed restrictions on other equipment? Not a chance in 2021.

Piastowski: None. I’m expecting maybe a more sharply worded statement, but distance decisions won’t be priority one this year, and rightfully so. But if the subject of question four wins the Masters by 15 and averages 350 off the tee …

Sean, you kill me!  As I understand you, the R&A is incapable of regulating distance in 2021 because...well, the dog ate its homework   As long as they don't engage in any risky activity, such as walking and chewing gum...

The report should be interesting, if only as a view to the governing bodies' will to act.  But, as Sean fumbles with, the intransigent opposition of those two PGAs is the critical impediment to any action.  However, I believe that the Lords of Augusta would be relieved if the USGAR&A would act, they simply don't want to go it alone.

My actual prediction, though, is that the governing bodes will take decisive action... They'll use whatever residual Covid news there is as an excuse to further delay the report.

Were you aware that, by statute, the TC panel is required to ask one Tiger question a week?  If not, then you simply haven't been paying attention:

6. True or false: Tiger Woods will win a PGA Tour event in 2021?

Zak: False. Right now, he’s played all of NINE (9) events in the past 12 months. That’s not all pandemic related. His back wasn’t in good shape in March, and his scoring wasn’t consistent in

the summer. I’d expect him to play about 10 times prior to the Ryder Cup, and hopefully he plays well. He’s just not likely to win.

Dethier: You mean Tiger Woods the 2021 Open Champion? True, I s’pose.

Colgan: I love Dylan’s optimism, but I share Zak’s skepticism. The opportunities are too few to conclude a Tiger win is in the cards.

Sens: Could happen, but, in keeping with the growing gambling buzz around the game, I’d lay 5 to 1 against it.

Piastowski: Yes. I believe in the five-under-over-his-last-six-holes-at-the-Masters Tiger. (And not the 10-on-12 Tiger.)

Dylan's been into the mushrooms, I see...  Not sure which is crazier, predicting a week of great weather at Sandwich or ignoring how much Tiger hates that track?  Anyone remember that lost ball on his opening tee shot back in '03?  Trust me, he hasn't...

Personally, I don't expect him to play even the ten events Sean credits his with.  We can't rule out that the planets could align one week, but I sure don't expect it.

That Colgan guy attempts to preview 2021 through numbers, though he could use a strong editor.  Preferably one that knows a little something about this game.  He of course leads with this:

45: Tiger Woods’ age for the 2021 season. It’s hard to fathom the 15-time major champion is only five years away from 50, but it’s not hard to fathom Woods competing at a high level heading forward. Precisely how much Tiger has left in the tank is anyone’s guess, but rest assured, his age will factor more into the discussion in 2021 than ever.

Yeah, that's come up a time or two... 

Here's an example of that need for an editor:

10.8 percent: Year-over-year change in rounds played through October 2020, according to the National Golf Foundation. The NGF projects 2020 will wind up with a 12 percent increase in rounds played over 2019, the largest change in the sport since Tiger’s Masters victory-fueled explosion in 1997.

First, and most obvious, that number dramatically understates the underlying demand, because so many states shut down for weeks or months at a time.  A more accurate picture would be the year-over-year numbers when golf course were open.  But equally interesting would be to analyze those numbers from the so-called Tiger boom and, more importantly, whether the 2020 experience might prove more sustainable.

But this one is just comically bad:

$15 million: The estimated total cost of Robert Trent Jones’ renovation at Torrey Pines. The newly renovated South Course will host the 2021 U.S. Open in June.

 WTF?  Given that Robert Trent Jones died in 2000, this seems, well, unlikely...

Curiously, Rees Jones, who succeeded his father as the Open Doctor, renovated the South Course in advance of tat 2008 Open.  It would be quite the story if they tossed Rees and replaced him with his brother, Robert Trent Jones, Jr., especially given that the brothers are famously not on speaking terms.  But not only is there no evidence of an Jones, boy's involvement, it so happens that that's the least of this item's inaccuracies:

San Diego’s city council has allotted $15 million for upgrades and renovations to the city’s three municipally operated golf facilities including Torrey Pines’ South Course, site of the 2021 U.S. Open, according to a report Tuesday by the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The $15 million approved Monday by the city council also will include contract work at San Diego’s other municipally operated golf facilities at Balboa Park and Mission Bay, the Union-Tribune reported. The courses will remain open during the jobs that include installing new irrigation systems and drainage, replacing and repairing cart paths, renovating bunkers and tree work.

To recap, Colgan got the fact that the South Course will host the 2021 correct.  Every other single word is inaccurate.  

The Sentry & The Wasted - two events that I'm guessing have never appeared in the same sentence.  One features rampaging hordes of inebriated spectators, the other was 2020 before we knew about2020 (it's so isolated at the far end of Maui, that there's never anyone on the course.

First, Kapalua gets a field upgrade:

The Sentry Tournament of Champions starts Thursday after just a few weeks off in the tour

schedule, and though the event traditionally consists of only players who won a PGA Tour event in the previous year, the limited field has been expanded with COVID-19 canceling a sizable amount of tournaments in 2020.

Seventeen players have been added to the field—anyone who made the 2020 Tour Championship and had not won a tour event in the previous season was extended an invite, bringing the field to 45 players. Rory McIlroy was one of those players, but he chose not to make the trip to Hawaii. Tyrrell Hatton, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020, is also opting not to tee it up. Jim Herman—the longshot winner of the 2020 Wyndham Championship—had to withdraw from the field due to COVID-19.

Meh!  I don't blame them, though the list of those playing in the event as a result will not exactly impact NFL playoff ratings:

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Sebastian Muñoz
Harris English
Mackenzie Hughes
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Lanto Griffin
Abraham Ancer
Brendon Todd
Kevin Kisner
Cameron Champ
Ryan Palmer
Kevin Na
Joaquin Niemann
Billy Horschel

Of course, who among is can stifle a laugh at seeing Tony Finau's name...  The man most famous for never winning scores an invite to the ToC...  Is there anything 2020 can't do

The bigger question is what to do with this event, which is a pale imitation of the event Tiger and Ernie electrified us at.  The wraparound schedule renders it incoherent, but it's the unexplained softening of the golf course that truly troubles me.  Those days of watching golf balls scurry 50-60 yards on the ground are gone, and that's the only thing that made the golf itself interesting.  The views are still great, but there's little else compelling us to tune in.

As for The Wasted, Eamon Lynch waves a caution flag, though starts with quite the curious appeal to authority:

It’s safe to assume that William Shakespeare didn’t have the Waste Management Phoenix Open in mind when he wrote the words, “Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast,” but tournament organizers could do worse than heed the old tragedian’s warning.

No, he was more of an Open Championship kind of guy.  But here's the gist of Eamon's consern:

Which brings us to the 86th edition of the drunkest spectacle on grass, which will be staged February 4-7 at TPC Scottsdale. The WMPO was not among the many events adversely impacted

last year. This year, the Thunderbirds organization that runs the tournament said it intends to welcome spectators, reportedly about 8,000 of them, in a best-case scenario.

To be fair, that’s smaller than a Saturday bathroom queue at a typical Phoenix Open. The WMPO stopped disclosing attendance figures a few years ago, but it easily draws the stoutest crowds on Tour. In 2018, it had more than 700,000 spectators, some of whom even watched the golf. The enormous charitable impact is rightfully the envy of every other tournament on the schedule: more than $14 million in ‘20 and $160 million in total over the years. Like most things in life and commerce, 2021 will usher in a gaunt version of what we’re accustomed to. The normally expansive corporate build-out at TPC Scottsdale will be greatly reduced in addition to those minimal spectator numbers.

But minimal might still be too much.

I really don't know, so the folks will just have to figure it out.  I just think this sounds very much like Shipnuck and Shackelford when a few positive test results hit at Hartford.  There's always a reason to not do something, but we have to exit our caves at some point, no?

Stat So? - Does our game need a new statistic?  I'm going to be bold and suggest maybe, so see what you guys think.  I'll just say that the chosen name, Win Equity, should placate the SJW crowd:

I'll let you guys explore the methodology by your ownselves, but the results seem preordained:

As for that guy mentioned above, he gets a special call-out:

Finau’s performance in Win Equity especially noteworthy: in the 36 final rounds where Finau has entered in the top 10, he has added win equity through his play in only 3 of them (2017 Valero Texas Open, 2019 HSBC Champions and 2018 Safeway Open). That is by far the lowest rate amongst these players.

Yeah, we didn't actually need a new stat to tell us that... But this concluding graph is a head-scratcher:

While Finau is unlucky to have not won since his 2016 Puerto Rico Open victory, he clearly has not made his own luck through his Sunday play. Neither has Fowler, although his numbers are somewhat skewed by losing 0.6 Win Equity in his 2019 Phoenix Open win when the weather turned nasty in the desert and everyone played poorly. While the reasons for Finau and Fowler’s Sunday struggles are mysteries to us, their existence cannot be denied. It will be interesting to watch whether that changes in 2021 and beyond.

In what sense is Finau unlucky?  Equally puzzling is why the author thinks that their Sunday struggles are mysterious.  Two guys famous for not winning get into the hunt and feel extra pressure to close it out?  Isn't that exactly what we expect?

Rut Roh - Shack has a 2021 preview post up, and lays down a troubling marker, at least for those who rely on his free content.  First, his rambling take on the world at large:

I’ve thought long and hard about my 2020 year in review and while I’d love to dwell on the

Dodgers finally winning it all or yours truly joining the list of Kentucky Derby winning owners, it was by any metric, a positively awful year.

With that, I would like to thank the over 1 million unique visitors to this blog in 2020 with a heartfelt but succinct recap of the worst year ever:

.

Moving along to 2021, I anticipate one of the zaniest years in golf history lies ahead. The recreational sport will keep thriving due to altered social engagement patterns (more time!), changing ways of life (fewer commutes), and a continued appreciation for fresh air.

The professional game will see an acceleration of trends. Some positive, most not and probably deservedly shedding some tournaments from schedules. This will provide more fodder than I’d like as one can only spend so much time reading about playing opportunities, premature moves to welcome fans back before they’ve been vaccinated, or marketing-fueled hyping of an increasingly boring game to watch. And let’s not forget the forthcoming excuses by the governing bodies to avoid touching distance gains.

That photo is 2020 in a nutshell, no?   He starts his pivot by throwing me a bone:

I could go on and on about what will make the off-course moves fascinating quite often and needlessly repetitive at other times. For now, I must end this abbreviated 2021 preview with a tease: coverage here at GeoffShackelford.com will continue free of charge and the snark will still shine through to help us weather these tough times. As a team.

 I just sense there's a "but" coming:

However, very shortly I’ll be announcing a pivot in my coverage that I’m very excited about. It will allow me to focus on the events, courses and trends that I love. I hope you’ll agree and join me for the ride. Stay tuned. But for now, Happy New Year and thank you for your continued readership.

I'm guessing he wants to swipe my credit card...  But at least he promised continuing snark as the mothership.

 Happy New Year to my loyal readers as well, and I'll see you later in the week.