Friday, May 1, 2020

Lockdown Lamentations

OK, I was horribly conflicted as to whether to blog today...  But you folks are incteasingly restless and there's an Ask Alan  column that won't age well over the weekend...

In Which The Big-Foots Get Big-Footed - Those counting the days until The Match II might be interested in this news:

For those keeping their own scorecards, that's the week prior to that other match and two-up on actual professional golfers...  Wolff might seem the one that doesn't belong, but many like your humble blogger will tune in just to watch his swing.  #howdoeshesquareitup

What Team? - The ebb and flow of Ryder Cup discussion has been kinda interesting.  Interesting in a "I'm locked down and I've finished Netflix" kind of way, but just a few days ago it seemed that sanity was ascendant, though admittedly for reasons differing from my own.

Now Captain Harrington, previously on record as wanting nothing to do with a fan-free event, has changed course:
Padraig Harrington has admitted that the Ryder Cup could end up having to “take one for the team” and be played without fans. 
The Europe captain is adamant that he and the players want spectators to be present at the biennial event in September, but accepts the decision is “above my pay grade” and different scenarios are being investigated. He also said he thought that if the PGA Tour made a successful comeback in June then it “massively” increased the likelihood of fans being allowed into the Ryder Cup.
Hmmm...did awaken to find a horse's head in his bed?  At that link above, Shack presents a tweet from Brian Keough, proprietor of the Irish Golf Desk, indicating that the driving factor might be the cash strain on the European Tour.

Brain also has this post with these comments from Paul McGinley:
He wrote: “The professional golf authorities need the TV revenue, particularly the PGA of America who are the organisers for both the PGA Championship and the Ryder Cup.
To have either, or both, of those events cancelled would be devastating from a financial perspective. 
“If the Ryder Cup does get the green light to go ahead behind closed doors, that would be a massive advantage for Europe and enhances Padraig Harrington's chances of bringing the trophy back home.” 
While US skipper Steve Stricker might prefer to wait until he can call on the raucous US fans for support, McGinley knows it’s not the Wisconsin native who will have the last say. 
“Money will always trump the view of the captain,” he wrote. “Yes, the contest will lose a significant amount in ticket sales and merchandise, but the television rights money will be invaluable for the long term. Any income is better than zero.”
While that middle bit seems non-controversial, the rest is quite the example of fuzzy logic....

First, is the PGA of America actually short on cash?  Because you'll get quite the different answer if you speak to any of its members, and there's that massive complex going up in Frisco....

But, in the first instance, no one is talking about cancelling the Ryder Cup.  The worst that could happen there is that it would pushed back to '21.  So, put those values into your disconted cash flow model and figure out the higher present value.

But the real issue that the Irishman elides is that they might lose the PGA Championship in their greed to salvage both of their marque events.  That early August date seems highly suspect, especially given the venue's location.  For God's sake, I wouldn't lay money on Gavin Newsome even opening the beaches in California by then.... How dare those people go outside!

I can believe that the European Tour is scared spitless, so if this moves forward for that reason, look no further than Mr. Pelley.

The Reset - A few weeks ago, April 19th to be precise, Shack started a series of posts on a reset in our game, looking for positives amid the devastation.  That's a thought process I've indulged in ob the larger issues of our, at least in those ten minutes per day when I'm not overwhelmed by existential dread.

Here's his framing:
The COVID-19 pandemic has already changed lives, fortunes and our future. Exactly how the world returns post-virus to some form of normalcy anyone’s guess both in scale
and timing. But in our small world of golf, we already knew certain values were evolving before this. The pandemic seems poised to expedite changing attitudes while forcing a reconsideration of other ideals. 
Over the coming weeks, as golf courses reopen and potentially millions seek solace by teeing it up at facilities that never closed, the sport may be a viable recreational option in a function-deprived world.

The word “opportunity” suggests anything about this pandemic is a good thing. It is not. Still, every sector of the world will evolve from this and golfers will recognize chance to highlight golf’s benefits and the need to rethink elements which have not evolved for the good of the sport.
Fair enough.  Shall we see what he's got for us?   As he hinted, this first post reminds us that the biosphere doing business as professional golf is not golf:

Pick any costly, suboptimal golf trend and the origins inevitably can be traced to professional golf.
Certainly, the ties between the recreational and the professional games give those who
identify as golfers plenty to enjoy. And those ties also explain how a couple million people can stay awake watching some telecasts that would induce sleep in an Adderall addict.

Naturally, there is some connection between the recreational and the professional game to be valued, maintained and respected. That tie is mutually beneficial. But to let the professional game dictate the direction of the sport is problematic at best.

Consider this: after the worst of this pandemic has passed, what are you most excited about? Taking out the clubs and playing golf, or watching a professional event? I can run a poll just to see if sitting inside and watching more golf on TV over getting outside and playing reaches 10%.

From an economic perspective, what generates more jobs, stability and community accord? The recreational side could lay up on all the par-5’s and still win that one 9&8.

Nearly every unsustainable trend in golf history has been fueled by attempts to replicate professional characteristics (green speed, bunker primping, 7000 yards) or to shape rules around the needs of the pro game (see the lack of bifurcation or rules simplicity). While the contradictory needs of the daily and pro games have long presented issues, something seems different these days. A shift toward prioritizing elite level golf feels like it’s never been more profound or oddly desperate.
OK, I think Geoff is correct, although I think the worst of that is perhaps behind us.  At least architecturally, the field is dominated by the minimalist school and focused on playability, as opposed to 8,000 yard monstrosities....

Unfortunately, Geoff's logic fails greatly in this 'graph:
Notice how during this awful pandemic, it has been small golf companies that made efforts to give back along with governing organizations like the PGA of America, USGA and R&A who stepped up with funds assisting those losing work in the golf industry. The professional tours, however, have been noticeably quiet. Several players have stepped up on their own. Many others inevitably will because the game still produces above-average citizens who take pride in giving back. But in general, the Tours and those who run them have focused on themselves. These are member organizations with different priorities than the greater good.
Several problems here.  First, the PGA of America (and, depending on how you view things, the R&A) are member organizations, though in the former's case that's a member organization that hasn't for many years had much interest in their members.

It's great when folks improvise, as per the apparel guys that are making masks.  But is that reasonable expectation for a Tour?  I get that maybe it is for the Daddy Warbucks in Ponte Vedra Beach, but surely not the Euro Tour that just hit the wall?  Even the big PGA Tour has multiple developmental tours under its umbrella, and those will require extensive support.

I certainly have my problems with how the tours are run, you might have heard a comment or two to that effect.  But I don't love Geoff's implication that there's something wrong with organizations taking care of their members' needs.  That's what they were created to do, and I'd rather they stay focused on that (Seth Waugh, this is specifically intended for your ears).

In general, I do think Geoff is correct that we've adopted practices from professional golf that are unhelpful, though he seems to think that's the fault of the professional game?  Doesn't the fault lie within us?  I do think we've learned our lesson architecturally, though admittedly the equipment front remains a hot mess.

But it's his third and most recent offering that's to me most interesting, both because it comes with pretty pictures and an irony alert.
Golf Reset: Goodbye To The Almighty, Overprimped, Must-Be-Raked Daily Bunker?
  And he leads with this advertisement:


So, not only did your insufferable purist blogger join a Robert Trent Jones club, but this winter we rebuilt every bunker on the golf course utilizing, wait for it, the Better Billy Bunker technology.

Are we ready for a history lesson?  Any native Gaelic speakers are excused from this tutorial:
Just a quick reminder here in case you skipped early Gaelic 101, “bunker” is derived from Old Scottish “bonker” and meant a chest or box, and became secondarily defined as a “small, deep sandpit in linksland”. 
Since these bunkers appeared naturally on linksland, no one thought to arm them with a rake or liners to keep the shells out. That nonsense came later.

The first known reference in golf’s literature came in 1812, used in Regulations for the Game of Golf according to Peter Davies in the Dictionary of Golfing Terms
Over the ensuing centuries golfers changed from accepting bunkers as accidental pits scraped out by divots or sheep, to demanding more maintenance. The shift was caused by two factors: the move from a match play mentality to a card-and-pencil, handicap-based game where tallying up a score could be disrupted by an unraked sand pit.

As golf courses moved inland, bunkers become very clearly man-made. The shift from natural to artificial changed expectations. Throw in the whining of golf professionals who were making their living on the links, and you have today’s irrational and expensive focus on perfect hazards. Even the Old Course rebuilds theirs every five years or so, which is why you get this kind of visual and psychological contrast from the old days to the present.
The case is made most strongly by the following pictures of the iconic Hell Bunker, placed perfectly to capture one's ill-fated second shot on the Long Hole (No. 14) on the beloved Old Course.  This is what it used to look like:


Now it looks like this:


Which instinctively appeals to you?  I know that, as much as a revered this hallowed turf, the uniformity of many of the bunkers appears artificial and contrived.  

But that's a reaction to their look and, as Geoff notes, the great architects of our day are building bunkers that provide that natural, retro look so many of crave.

The bigger issues are clearly the balancing of the penal nature of bunkers, as well as the maintenance requirements.  I'll leave you to consider the rest of Geoff's thoughts on your own, though I think most of us do have a sense that bunkers have become too perfectly maintained, and the penalty for a visit has diminished.  The hard part is the absence of rakes will have us playing from footprints, and no one will be happy with that.

As the kids like to say, stay tuned....

Over To Alan... - Let's see what Shippy has in mind, and then I'll release you to start your weekend:
The coronavirus modeling report from Mass General released on Tuesday predicts big problems if the country does not stay focused for the next 12 weeks. Do you think the Tour is taking a huge risk of a massive timeline setback by pushing to host events so soon? – @joelbshaw 
I’m definitely worried about this. I’d much rather sacrifice the John Deeres and 3Ms on the schedule to give us a better chance of playing the majors and Ryder Cup later in the summer/early fall. If the Tour rushes back to action and there is an outbreak of the virus among players, caddies and/or support staff, the plug would have to be pulled for a very long time to reassess protocols, repair the brand damage and restore trust among the many stakeholders. I think the position of the Tour leadership was that they had to cobble together a new schedule and be ready to go ASAP, but ultimately they will be flexible and willing to push things back further. Monahan and his deputies have made it pretty clear that widespread testing is necessary to press forward. But five weeks out from Colonial, less than 2 percent of the U.S. population has been tested, and folks like Colin Montgomerie are going on record saying that the precious few tests that currently exist shouldn’t be wasted on pro golfers. So, I’m afraid that in a few weeks, there will be a revised announcement wiping out the June and July tournaments, as the Tour continues to try to buy time.
You would think that the one thing we could all agree on at this juncture would be skepticism about the modelling.... No?  Have we hit those 2.2 million deaths yet?  And I hope your reading is sufficiently focused to understand that those death numbers are highly suspect.  The virus has dramatically under-performed, and it's easier right now to get a ventilator than a golf push cart.

That said, of course the question is a good one, especially with the media committed to scaring the bejesus out of us.  My problem is less with the Tour trying to play, than with Jay and his back-up band playing a tune with which I am unfamiliar.  If you really want this to happen, then you minimize the foortprint at those early events.  But, as we know from our ShotLink discussion, that's not Jay's strategy, so all I can do is note that I don't understand what objectives Jay is after, but it doesn't seem to be the obvious one.
Course length at Augusta and Winged Foot: Given they will be played in a colder season, do you believe yardage could go down? Or they will set them up at full throttle? – @pintosjavi 
I’m actually excited about the possibility of the Masters and U.S. Open being played in cooler temperatures. These days, 7,500 yards is laughably short to test Tour players, especially when it’s hot and the ball is really flying. But if it’s cold and the courses are tipped out, as they should be, they will be significantly tougher tests, which I welcome.
Interesting thoughts, though my takeaway from recent years is that there's no length available that keeps these guys from torching golf courses.  The only available defenses are wind and firmandfast conditions, the latter being less likely at Augusta.  Ironically, September in my 'hood is far better, on average, and is the month I would pick for U.S. Opens in the Northeast.  It's a one-off at best, so we'll probably get monsoons, given the way 2020 has played out to date.
Being able to afford being out on Tour (and especially in the lower tours) is a huge undertaking. Is there a possibility of a whole class of players being lost to this virus as marginal players find other situations that have more stability? – @frazerrice 
Oh yes, that’s a major concern. The professional game is going to contract at every level. In the short- and medium-term, the PGA Tour is going to lose a ton of revenue, from lost pro-ams and ticket sales and related sources. Longer-term, it’s easy to imagine many struggling companies pulling back from pricey sponsorship deals. In this climate, will the Tour continue to underwrite the Korn Ferry Tour as well as developmental circuits across China, Latin America and Canada? Seems like something’s gotta give. The Challenge Tour in Europe could vanish, too. Fewer playing opportunities means minor-league golf will become even more cut-throat, driving away a lot of the dreamers who have always needed financial backing to make a go of it.
You guys worry way too much.   We're in the process of ensuring that there are absolutely no other career opportunities available for anyone, so we've got you covered.  
Walking mostly empty Pebble and Spyglass daily during the shutdown, I notice a couple of things: 1) The courses have a nice tinge of yellow/brown; 2) Both have way too much turf. Could the economic fallout change the way even top courses are maintained? – @jeffdebalko

A lot of things are going to be reassessed in the new world order. Tourism is going to be down for a long time … maybe forever. A large percentage of the population is going to have less discretionary income. All of this means golf courses are going to feel the hurt and have to streamline their operations. In California, water costs were putting courses out of business even before the ’rona. I think that, nationwide, a lot of turf is going to be ripped out and turned into hazards or scrubby natural grass — either requires less upkeep and less water, helping courses get by with the smaller maintenance budgets that are becoming inevitable.
Seems a mortal lock to be Shack's next reset post, no?  Again, like a broken record, see the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2....
What is the Golf Lobby doing to get courses re-opened in lockdown states? – @Bag_bandigt 
The Golf Lobby is basically a bunch of us whining on Twitter. So, nothing. But it’s a delicate balance. Those of us who are golfers know how healthy and cathartic it is/would be to walk in nature and enjoy the wondrous mind-body challenge the game presents. We all desperately need exercise and stimulation and fun right now. But golf is always battling charges of elitism and point-missing so if parks and beaches and other public spaces are closed it’s horrible optics to push too hard for the reopening of golf courses. Already the game seems to be coming back online in most jurisdictions. I think a little patience is prudent right now.
You guys are well acquainted with my suspicion of and contempt for government.  But, to be fair, do you remember my remarks when the state of Connecticut shut Fairview down?  I had a cry in the wilderness for a recalibration, and shockingly that's what happened.  A golf organization (I knew at the time but can't remember the name) made the case to the state government, and they listened and changed the policy.

The golf course closings (and the petulant closing of California beaches) demonstrates little beyond the authoritarian nature of our government.  Anyone that thinks we'll catch this outdoors needs to read this Heather Macdonald treatise on modes of transmission.  Cuomo actually let the mask slip when he reopened New York to golf, indicating that they had shuttered only to impose "message discipline."  Got that?  We can't let you engage in a safe activity (and salvage a few jobs) because we're so clueless at communicating to our citizens slaves.  You think the rubes are getting unruly now, wait'll you tell them the lockdown didn't even save any lives.... Tar and feathers seems appropriate.
If someone wins the U.S. Open, PGA and Masters this year, will that count as winning the Grand Slam? #AskAlan – @wareagle1991 
No, just like what Tiger Woods did in 2000-01 did not count as winning the Grand Slam. We needed new nomenclature for Woods’ achievement: the Tiger Slam. If all three majors get played this year and someone wins them all, we could call it the Corona Slam, but that might have a negative connotation. How about the Hogan Slam? In 1953, the great Ben Hogan won the only three majors he entered that year, because the long trip to Carnoustie made it impossible for him to compete in the PGA Championship. I like the ring of that.
Hogan is the obvious reference point, because the space-time continuum wouldn't have allowed play in '53 in bother the PGA and Open Championship.  
If we see the three American majors adapt, overcome and be played, will the R&A get the criticism it deserves for caving so quickly? – @GrantLeigh3 
There will be some, for sure, because of those old boys’ instinct to take the (insurance) money and run. But these are unparalleled times and we are all having to make difficult decisions in real-time, so I don’t think we should be too tough on the dandruffy fellows at the R&A. They had a much smaller window to get the Open done in the autumn because the days get short and cold that far north. And would jittery, persnickety American pros want to fly that long in the recirculated air of a commercial plane? (It’s wickedly expensive to fly private overseas.) All in all, the R&A made a tough call, and I can live with it.
This is my morning amusement.  Alan has been brutal to Rory and others for shipping Rio, but it's OK that the R&A not hold the Open?  I try not be a be a slave to consistency, but WTF!  Those rationalizations are pretty weak stuff, but maybe their legitimately worried about Zika.  A pox on their clubhouse for not even trying.
Will Rory eventually go down in history as one of the greatest to ever have played the game …? – @Capdantibes 
He’s got a chance, that’s for sure. Ballesteros and Byron Nelson are all-time legends, with five major championship victories, and Rory is just one behind them. If McIlroy gets to six he’s caught Trevino and Faldo. Seven is really rarified air: Palmer, Snead, Sarazen. Rory has already done a ton in the game, winning around the world, reaching world No. 1 and taking various POYs and FedEx Cup championships. Going forward is the majors that will further define his legacy.
FedEx Cups?  Really, and I was un the misconception that you had actual standards...  But the only reason Byron Nelson only has five is that he quit to buy his ranch as soon as he had made enough money.  And, just for amusement, think about what Seve meant to the Ryder Cup and European golf pared to Rory....

My problem with Rory is that he's a classic under-achiever.  Yeah, he picked off some low hanging fruit, but recent years have not been kind to him.  If he can get back to even contending in the big events I might have to reconsider, but to date he's spared me that dilemma.

Looks like we might actually have a good weekend locally, so I do hope folks will be able to get out and play.

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