Monday, January 6, 2020

Weekend Wrap

Lots of football, some golf and even a little skiing...  That's what you get for asking about my weekend.

Maui Wowie - I was gonna go with Kapalua Kringes, at least as far as that final group on No. 18 in regulation:
Who won: Justin Thomas (14 under, 278; birdie on third playoff hole) 
How it happened: Schauffele led Thomas by one entering the day, but Thomas strung together four straight birdies on Nos. 8-11 to lead Patrick Reed by two and Schauffele by three. But Reed, playing a couple of groups ahead of Thomas and Schauffele, used a hot putter to keep climbing up the leaderboard. He made birdies on 13, 14 and 15 to get within a stroke of Thomas at one point, but Thomas followed two pars with a birdie on 14 to push his lead back to two over Reed and Schauffele. But on 16 Thomas made it interesting. He drove it into the bunker and made bogey, and his lead was back to one over Schauffele and Reed, who birdied the last to take the clubhouse lead at 14 under. Both players found the fairway on the long par-5 18th, but everything changed with their second shots. Thomas, still leading by one, over-cooked a draw and found the hazard short of the green, while Schauffele blasted a 5-wood onto the green for an eagle putt. Thomas dropped and pitched on to 8 1/2 feet but missed his par putt, but Schauffele three-putted for par when a birdie would have won it. That crazy sequence of events led to a playoff with Schauffele (70), Thomas (69) and Reed (66). 
The playoff: All three players found the fairway when replaying the par-5 18th and went for the green with their second shots. Thomas finished in the rough right of the green, Schauffele rolled onto the front of the green and Reed was in the best position, his ball settling about 20 feet away. Reed two-putted easily for birdie and Thomas nearly chipped in for eagle, but instead knocked in his three-footer for birdie. Schauffele was eliminated from the playoff after his second straight three-putt. After heading back to the 18th tee, both players had birdie putts their second time around but couldn’t convert. Playing the 18th for the third time, Thomas stuck a wedge in close and sank his four-footer to win. Reed also had a birdie chance from about eight feet out but missed and cleaned up his par before Thomas ended it. To make matters worse for Reed, a fan also yelled “Cheater!” as his ball tracked toward the hole.
Your humble correspondent had made it through two dreary football games and all of the golf through the end of regulation.  But the Keystone Kops play of Thomas and X-man on No. 18, or was it the s**t-eating grin of Dr. Death in black that did it, but I just had nothing left for the playoff.

Our Shack has been spewing spittle all over my monitor on a wide range of topics.  First, like everyone else, he was concerned as to whether they could return the fire to the golf course.  As he put it, would it be interesting?  And, of course, they promised us it would be:
Kapalua's Plantation Course ready for PGA Tour pros with restored and speedy surfaces
Comical in hindsight, because the combination of new grassing and way too much rain rendered the gold course softer still, seemingly over-seeded with velcro.

But then Geoff decided it was good after all:
Sentry 2020: Watching Young Guns Hit Woods Into Par-5s Was Exciting! Stop The Presses!
Kapalua played like a golf course re-opening year one of a major overhaul. The turf was young, the greens sported that dreaded new-green firmness and overall, it needs a little 
Oops!
more time to settle in. Mother Nature was also cruel to the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions in making Kapalua play long, soft, wet and not as much fun as we know it can be. 
But as the ground dried just enough during Sunday’s windy finale, the 18th played like it did fifteen years ago. Drives that caught the right line and ridges shortened the hole. Clubs once called woods—not irons!—were used for second shots on a par-5. The hazard was in play. The ground mattered. Position off the tee was key. Genuine skill behind mere power was on display. And it was all very exciting to watch. 
This is noteworthy given how often we are told the long ball is vital to selling the sport when we were once again reminded that power is fascinating when it is used to overcome hazards or to separate highly competitive players in a tight battle. Seeing the shots of Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed just trickle on to a green in two, after starting 677 yards away, proved far more exciting than most finishes we’ve seen in some time and certainly were more fun than the simple lash at a tee shot.

It was all a reminder of how much pleasure can be found in watching a skilled player use a wood off of a hanging lie under tournament pressure, and how rarely it now happens as distance overwhelms the game.

Well done to all involved and thanks for the viewing pleasure to kick off 2020 in style.

Here was Thomas hitting into the hazard, hopefully we’ll get some social posts of the brilliant shots hit by Thomas, Schauffele and Reed on the first playoff hole (Think shaped, running and using the land, with a wood in their hand.)
OK, who wants to volunteer to tell Geoff he can't have it both ways?  If the course was firmandfast, which is how we think we want it, the guys won't be removing headcovers in the 18th fairway.  Just sayin'...

Mind you, it's not that Geoff is wrong about making the guys hit longer clubs.  Just, perhaps not here...

Now, the biggest story of the week was a hot mic moment from the least likely candidate on the planet:
If you’re a golf fan who spends time on social media, chances are you’ve seen the clip of Patrick Cantlay’s colorful and somewhat cryptic discussion with Jon Rahm and their respective caddies on the 17th tee during the second round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions. 
On what was a gusty Friday afternoon on the Plantation Course, Golf Channel mics picked up Cantlay, the world’s 7th-ranked player, saying “these pampered f—s need to play” and “two more holes and we can get a Mai Tai.” 
Cantlay’s caddie Matt Minister responded, “I’ll get a Mai Tai, you can have your water.” 
“Don’t spoil it for me,” Cantlay said.
He later said something about telling Vladimir he'll have more flexibility after the next election, though the media had no interest in that comment.  

Geoff sorts through this important matter, which this time of year is assumed to involve Mark Rolfing:
Riggs at Barstool says this was a joking reference to Mark Rolfing wanting to see the players get traditional Kapalua wind, but Golf.com’s Garrett Johnston received this
correction to the prevailing assumption from Cantlay’s bagman Minister.

“I know that Rolfing had nothing to do with that conversation,” Minister said. “I find it amusing people assuming they know what we are talking about. They are wrong.” 
Minister added that the Mai Tai remark “caught me off guard. [Patrick] doesn’t drink.” (Minister’s not a Mai Tai guy, either. He said his post-round drink of choice this week has been a craft beer from Maui Brewing Company.) 
So, what were Cantlay’s remarks in reference to? Minister declined to say. 
“Makes it more fun,” he said, “keep y’all guessing.”
The buried lede is that Patrick Cantlay tried to make a joke...  Really, that's newsworthy.

The Tour Confidential panel took on this one as well:
3. Speaking of Cantlay, he caught the attention of golf fans last week when a Golf Channel “hot mic” caught him using some colorful language at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Cantlay thought he was having a private conversation with his group on the 17th tee and had no idea his remarks were being broadcast. Should Tour players be made aware when mics are live, or should they operate under the assumption that anything they say anywhere between the ropes is fair game for the telecast? 
Sens: Given the intimate coverage they get week in and week out, they should be aware that anything they say can and will be used against them in the court of public opinion. At the same time, we should all stop feigning offense when we hear a cuss word. It’s a fair reflection of golf-course speak. Save your outrage for things in the world that deserve it. No shortage of those. 
Kerr-Dineen: Shocker, pro golfers swear. And trust me, it’s not nearly as incendiary as some of the things I hear on the course on a weekly basis. But either way, yes, they should be made aware, and it’s something the Tour should kick up a notch by mic’ing up the leaders for the final 36 holes. Then there will be no doubt on either side, and the viewers at home will be getting more of what they actually want. 
Zak: There is sooooooo muchhhhhhh spacceeeeee that is nowhere near a microphone on a golf course. If you don’t want to be caught swearing on the microphone, don’t swear near a microphone. It’s pretty darn clear where they are located. And to comment back at my guy Josh Sens, I think most of “Golf Twitter” was happy to see Cantlay show some personality. It was the broadcast team who immediately recoiled at such a scary four-letter word. 
Sens: Fair enough. The broadcasters should stop feigning squeamishness. In the meantime, I’ll have to check out this Twitter thing you mention. 
Dethier: I’d suggest you stay away, Sens. With that said, I think this was a big moment for Cantlay — in a good way. Up to this point, there’s been little to suggest that Cantlay has a sense of humor of any sort. I think there’s some personality in there after all! 
Wood: I know, I know, it’s not the “right” thing to do, but to me it’s endlessly entertaining. I can’t be the only one who tires of the clichéd interviews and safe, safe, safe narratives. I think 75 percent of the people watching laughed, 15 percent displayed fake outrage and 10 percent were offended. And out here? About 108 percent of the caddies and players got a kick out of it.
But the children!  There's no good answer to these dilemmas, since we all enjoy the unscripted moments, and a little vulgarity makes it the more natural.  But there are children around and, all joking aside, none of us know how to manage that.  

Obviously, Mr. Cantlay is a news peg for other reasons, specifically Mr. Azinger:
1. Paul Azinger, the lead golf analyst for NBC Sports, gave GOLF.com five bold predictions for the 2020 season: Tiger wins major No. 16, Rory wins the Masters, Cameron Smith becomes the best Australian, Patrick Cantlay gets to World No. 1 and Sungjae Im vaults into the top 10 in the World Ranking. Which of these takes is most and least likely to happen? 
Luke Kerr-Dineen: Logically, Rory winning the Masters is least likely, because he’s only got one tournament to fulfill the prediction, whereas Tiger has four chances and Cameron, Cantlay and Sungjae have all season. But that said, I don’t see Tiger getting another major in 2020. Not that I don’t want him to — let me be very clear on that — I just suspect he won’t defend his green jacket and the rest of his 2020 major season will mirror 2019. As for most likely, probably the Cameron Smith prediction. He’s only got three Australians to leapfrog, and even though we’ve seen signs of life from Adam Scott (the highest ranked of them all) last season, his continually sketchy putting always makes you wonder how long it’ll last. 
Josh Sens: For Cantlay to get to No. 1, he’ll have to leapfrog Tiger, DJ, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka. Forgive me for not believing that will happen. 
Sean Zak,: I’ll go ahead and say there’s no way Smith vaults ahead of Adam Scott for top Aussie. Not the way Scottie is playing. Cantlay getting to No. 1 isn’t that unrealistic, folks. A couple of nice wins (which he’s fully capable of) and Brooks backing up (very plausible) and he’ll be duking it out with Rory. JT and Rahm are the real ones I’d be worried about. Rory winning the Masters has probably a 5 percent chance of happening. So … Tiger winning one of four majors is most plausible. Get this! None of them happen! Sorry, Zing. 
Dylan Dethier: Let’s throw some numbers on these! I’d put Rory’s chances at Augusta just shy of 10 percent. Tiger should have around a 25 percent chance of winning No. 16. It wouldn’t shock me for Cantlay to hop into the top three, but he’s under 5 percent to take the top spot. I don’t even know how to handicap the Cam Smith prediction, because his 2019 wasn’t particularly impressive. Sungjae has leapt all the way to World No. 34, and while the trek into the top 10 is a tough one, I love his game. Gimme Im as the most likely, and Cantlay as the least likely. 
John Wood: Most likely: Sungjae Im gets to top 10 in the world. Least likely: Cantlay to No. 1. Not impossible obviously because Patrick is a stone-cold killer, but there are just so many guys capable of being there.
Way too much going on there for one single question, but it triggers some reactions.  But I think we can all agree that the race for Best Aussie is less than compelling...

That Zinger thinks Cantlay is that good is an interesting data point.  I myself haven't seen that gear in the man, but of course the separation between these guys is razor thin.

I tend to focus more on the inconsistencies within his five predictions.  For instance, I think it's pretty obvious that Tiger's best chance for a 2020 major is at Augusta by a substantial margin.  It's the easiest to win by far because of the field size, and it's easily his best chance for favorable weather and a normal schedule (the field size limits early morning tee times, which has to help Tiger).  So, the prediction of Rory at Augusta and Tiger bagging one seems the equivalent to drawing to an inside straight.

As for Sungjae Im, can you say recency bias?

This is a more coherent follow-up:
2. Zinger’s boldest prediction was surely Cantlay ascending to World No. 1. Who do you think will be the top-ranked male and female players at the end of this calendar year? 
Kerr-Dineen: Nelly Korda will get to World No. 1 and stay there for a while. So much talent, she’s going to be the next dominant force in women’s golf. On the men’s side? The OWGR being what it is, it’s really more of a power ranking, so think about who might catch some good form over the next season. Xander Schauffele jumps to mind, but I think Jon Rahm’s even more likely. He’ll get to World No. 1 and win (at least) one major along the way. 
Sens: Unless she gets bored or injured, Jin Young Ko should remain right where she belongs atop the women’s rankings. Such a sharp, well-rounded game. I see Rory supplanting Koepka before the year is out, though I realize shorting Koepka is rarely a good idea. 
Zak: Like I said before, I think Cameron Smith becoming top Aussie is a lot harder to believe in than Cantlay becoming top player. Now that I got that out of the way, Jin Young Ko has a gigantic lead, so I’ll take her. On the men’s side, Justin Thomas will be No. 1 this time next year. All he needs is a fully healthy season. 
Dethier: Jin Young Ko’s got numbers on her side and will finish the year at No. 1, although Nelly Korda’s pursuit of the top spot is one of the great recent storylines in American golf. I’ve predicted Rory to finish the year at World No. 1 the last two years; let’s see if we get it right this time around! 
Wood: Jin Young Ko and Tiger Woods. Every time he tees it up and is healthy he will be the guy to beat. His play is stellar again, and his world ranking divisor will be so low I think that will help. I just think he’s gonna play 12-15 times and have a monster year.
On the women's side I'll go with a Korean, perhaps named Lee...  Oh wait, despite nailing it, that got Hank Haney in a spot of bother.  Though it gets my vote for favorite lawsuit of the coming year...

Woodie is all in on Davis Love's big prediction, which seems silly given how little he'll actually play.  The OWGR leave me cold, so I'm more interested in whether Rory can summon his game at Augusta... Yanno, when he wants it the most.  As to what happens at The Honda and Wasted, who really cares?

The Year That Was - For reasons that escape me, Alex Myers pens a love letter to 2010....  Well, perhaps it's not exactly love:
Just a reminder, we are now 10 years removed from the weirdest year in PGA Tour history
2010?  Did anything much happen that year?  OK, I do remember this:
1. Before we get to the action on the course, Tiger Woods held that somber post-scandal press conference at TPC Sawgrass in February.

Who doesn't like a good hostage video?  But the strangest part of that story is that Nurse Ratched let me overshadow the first day of the WGC Match Play event with his bizarre presser, or whatever we call it.

But this was completely on brand:
4. McIlroy looked like he might win his first major, too, when he shot an opening 63(!) at the Open Championship. But he followed that up with a second-round 80(!!) at St. Andrews.
I remember that day vividly.  Rory caught horrible conditions on his way out on the Old Course, and had no other weapon than to continue to throw shots way up into the wind.  I thought Northern Ireland passports were revoked for that, but apparently not.

But apparently there was a Bigfoot sighting: 
7. Anthony Kim won the Shell Houston Open. This wasn't weird for the 23-year-old budding star. What's weird is that AK never won again—and has barely been seen since. (Insert sad-face emoji.)
Now Alex comes to his rousing coda, but again these things seem perfectly on brand:
10. Dustin Johnson led the U.S. Open by three shots through 54 holes, but shot a final-round 82 at Pebble Beach—a place where he had won the PGA Tour stop there for the
second year in a row four months earlier. Amazingly, this wouldn't wind up being his most painful loss of the year. 
11. Dustin Johnson lost the PGA Championship because he grounded his club in a "bunker" on the 72nd hole. Imagine if this happened today? Golf Twitter would burn to the ground. DJ was informed of his two-stroke penalty, which knocked him out of a playoff with Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson, on the 18th green at Whistling Straits while playing partner and 54-hole leader Nick Watney added up his own 81.
File under DJ being DJ....

Of course, that explains this, no?
Dustin Johnson says he should have double the amount of wins. Is he right?
 Majors I think is an exponential function....  That TC panel had time for this as well:
4. Dustin Johnson has 20 PGA Tour wins in his career but said last week that he feels like he should have “probably about double” that total. When accounting for talent and potential, which active Tour pro has most underdelivered/underachieved in the wins column? 
Kerr-Dineen: Dustin Johnson is right, he has underachieved relative to his ability, but not enough to lose sleep over. He’ll get another major at some point and continue making lots of money, which won’t keep him up at night. Bubba Watson joins him in that category. As for the players who will be haunted by their final haul: Adam Scott is the obvious answer, but like Sergio, at least he’ll always point to his green jacket. Hideki Matsuyama is the name flying up this ranking with every passing tournament. With the weight of a golf-loving nation on him, those two Waste Management Open trophies aren’t going to keep him warm at night. 
Sens: Dylan Dethier. When he was coming out of Williams (or was it Amherst? I always get those schools confused), I figured he was destined to dominate for years. But no. He got caught up in the allure of the writerly life and squandered all that talent. After him, hmmm … the way Sergio hits the ball, he could/should easily have more than his 10 PGA Tour wins. To say nothing of another major or two. 
Dethier: I’d argue my peak World Ranking (1,508, I think) remains a wild overachievement. 
Zak: Dethier does have one of the best caddies in the game! DJ underdelivered in the majors column but not the wins column! He’s won a ton. The answer, per usual, is Rickie Fowler. In a decade on Tour, he has won five times, a total also known as fewer than Jimmy Walker. Apologies to Jimmy, but Rickie is on top of the list until he moves himself off it. 
Dethier: Good thoughts all — I’d add that Tony Finau is climbing this list quickly. My man has six runner-up finishes on Tour and only one win at the Puerto Rico Open, which nobody will mistake for a major. Here’s hoping for a trophy in 2020.
Twenty wins is hard to sneeze at, but it is conceivable that his career could end with only the one major, especially now that Brooks has DJ's manhood in a safe in his basement.  But Sean Zak is correct, when they announce the Master Class in underachievement, Rickie will be your instructor.

Some may take this as encouraging:
Dustin Johnson poised for a big year with his knee issue behind him
 I've never wasted much time worrying about DJ's knee...  It's that real estate between the ears.

Have We Not Suffered Enough? - Mike Whan is a good guy, and you all know that I have affection for the women's game, but this is enough to put me off my breakfast:
New decade of Whan: 'Turning up volume' on women’s empowerment
As the kids like to say, "Get woke, go broke."

To be fair, you're gonna have to espouse some of that in running a women's Tour, and his objectives seem appropriate:
Now, Whan can’t imagine leaving his adopted daughters with this larger purpose still to pursue, with women’s empowerment a cause he is committed to champion: 
Growing the game to where half the golf population is female. 
Growing the profile of his players with more network TV opportunities. 
Narrowing the gender pay gap. 
They’re all more aggressively in his crosshairs today. 
“I can’t just let that be somebody else’s problem,” Whan said. “I can’t be thinking, 'I rebuilt the LPGA, now I am going to cash out and go to a bigger platform.’ That would feel wrong. You’re either in this, or you’re not.” 
Whan is all in.
I'd much rather he focus on increasing purses for the ladies, and eschew the wage gap nonsense....  They actually suffer from the comparison, so far better to focus on the better fan experience and other attributes of his ladies.  Otherwise, you just sound like a bitter socialist....

A Schedule Rant - From you-know-who, and another one in which he seems to want it both ways....  This case about the Tour schedule:
Whether its the side-effect of a late Presidents Cup, an accumulation of wraparound golf buildup or starting as early as possible, the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions arrives with little fanfare or anticipation.

The flat vibe certainly is not the fault of Kapalua, perennially one of the more enjoyable venues in tournament golf both in beauty and fun finish production. The course re-debuts after a freshening and toughening, and sounds a bit soft this year, which may negate the charming ground game of yesteryear.

The format is not to blame, either, though dreams of a duel PGA Tour-LPGA TOC start were dashed when a sponsor likely not want to deal with the cost or equal pay criticisms that would have been a byproduct of such an event. (Sentry just renewed through 2030, news announced for minimum traction on that Friday news dump not-on-a-Friday, aka New Year’s Eve…)
Nor are the players to blame. While the usual defections happened again due to a plethora of playing opportunities—Woods, Koepka, McIlroy passed—plenty of first time winners and quality players have turned up for a guaranteed $64,000 and week on Maui.

Which brings us back to a recurring and dreadful topic we’ll grapple with all of 2020: schedule compaction. To put it as euphemistically as possible. 
Tokyo’s Olympic games in July grab two weeks of the PGA Tour schedule and thus forced the early start. They will also disrupt schedules of big names and highlight how too many playing opportunities exist. As a product folks pay handsomely to sponsor and televise, we’ll be reminded quite regularly that the people writing big checks could get a lot more bang for their bucks with some schedule contraction and less of an emphasis on providing year-round playing opportunities.

Not that anyone will do anything about it as long as players incentivize leaders to maximize at the expense of the product.

So sit back, enjoy the beautiful scenes from Kapalua and break out your trade winds-climate change-Coore & Crenshaw bingo board.

Oh, but do enjoy the warm and fuzzy Patrick Reed-Kevin Kisner pairing that should brighten any January gloom. The new security guard spotted as part of Team Reed has undoubtedly been told to keep an eye on Kis as much as any Hawaiian hecklers.
Yeah, he's most certainly onto something, though of course it's complicated because you need to provide playing opportunities for the kids to improve their status.  I think the mistake is the big-time events in the Fall, rather than a model more like the old Fall Finish.

Shack had another point about the schedule that deserves serious thought:
Instant Poll Asking For A Friend: Would You Support Monday Finishes During The NFL Playoffs?
We’ve run into this question seemingly every year. But with the NFL’s already high ratings on the rise again as a strong leaderboard plays against wildcard weekend. It takes little imagination to know that golf is annoying blip to casual fans following the games, and is even asking its core audience to keep their remotes or second screens busy.

In between remote control flips to wildcard games, I ask, what would be so terrible if the first three events of the PGA Tour season started on Friday and ended on Monday?
The Sentry Tournament of Champions, Sony Open and Bob Hope Chrylser Humana Careerbuilder Workday American Express Desert Classic could all finish on Mondays and in eastern U.S. prime time on Golf Channel.

For the sponsor, a Monday finish might allow the event to get a similar rating on cable and get more recognition in media cycles when the only major sporting event.

The major negatives: a potentially smaller final round gallery at the Hawaii events, a tight turnaround from the desert event to Torrey Pines and the end of any chance a major network would carry the final round. And such a move would mean finishing near the start of the national college football championship but also on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a national holiday.
Seems like a slam dunk for the two Hawaii events, where you can finish in prime time.  I don't actually think that Palm Springs event would work as well.  And, if it lines up with NFL conference championships, what you'd really want to do is finish on Saturday.  But that's an awfully quick turnaround coming back to the mainland from Hawaii, but at least it's no longer a 90-hole event, so we've got that going for us.

I'll leave you nice folks here and hopefully see you tomorrow.  There's no snow in the forecast, so you should have my full attention. 

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