Bonus Sunday Content - Premiere Golf League Edition

This story is moving quickly, though it's already exposing fault lines in the game, as I'll endeavor to explain below.  Shack had planned to tease us with a slow release of the goodies, but he himself got trumped when the organizers released this Q & A on their efforts.  

As we see here, it's presented as an interview transcript.  Missing, and it's a bit curious that Geoff fails to explain, is the identity of the alleged interviewer and interviewee....  Kind of a major failing, where I come from, but perhaps we can all pretend to suspend our disbelief....yanno, temporarily:

What follows will a double-Fisking.... Shack has already Fisked it, and I'll do the same, in addition to Fisking Shack's Fisk thereof.  Postmodern enough for you?

First, some preliminary thoughts from Geoff:

Long post here folks, but the vision is fascinating and as you know from my original post that broke this news, the World Golf Group is not messing around with their effort to start a new Tour. In that post, I promised to delve deeper into their concept over the next week, but a new document released to all media outlets today outlines nearly everything I’ve seen and had planned to cover.

So, besides the third name change since they’ve been envisioning the league, the primary shift in this document is one of tone. Perhaps realizing that to sustain a “league” they must have feeder tours, there appears to be an effort to work with the PGA Tour and European Tour. However, an 18-event schedule stealing top players is still very much a hostile act, one that leaves the U.S. and European tours as feeder operations in the best case scenario.

At one point they seemed to be going with the Tour de Force moniker, so we can all be grateful that they moved on from that.  And, yes, that intention to "work with" the PGA Tour was a significant change of tone....  However, their view of the world is that the PGA Tour will act as a feeder tour for them, and I'll predict that that won't be especially well received in Fortress Ponte Vedra Beach.  I know, I'm a modern day Nostradamus....

Q: What is the League?

PGL: It’s a new, improved format, devised in consultation with those who fund the sport at the highest professional level – designed, simply, to be the best product golf is capable of producing.

An individual and team league format – only the best, playing against the best each week.

Forty-eight players competing to win the individual world championship. Twelve teams of 4 competing to win the team world championship – in a compelling league format that will generate the strongest possible seasonal narrative.

Each 8-month season will begin in January and be comprised of 18 events; 10 of which will be played in the US, with others airing during US primetime.

Rather than the traditional 4, there will be 3 days of stroke play competition (54 holes) per tournament, with no cut – you don’t send the world’s best players home early.

The first 2 days will have a shotgun start, to fit within a 5-hour broadcast window, so no slow air. And each final day will go to a 2-tee start, to maintain the traditional back-9 climax.

The world champion will be crowned after 17 weeks and the 18th event will be a team play- off, utilizing a seeded, match play format, to decide the league winners – one of sport’s ultimate, annual, spectacles.

The League will generate the most entertaining and enthralling content the sport is capable of producing. The best field guaranteed – the best fan and player experience guaranteed.

To which Shack basically says, "Amen":

Note how they are addressing the silly length a pro golf day takes in a smart way. Shotgun starts the first two days, 54 holes and two-tees the last day.

OK, 54 holes vs. 72 frees up a bunch of Thursdays, but doesn't really move the needle.  But I'll note that golf is a game where talent is notoriously slow to differentiate itself.  I'll remind you that Bobby Jones was loather to play in events where matches were only 18 holes, because the results were too random.  I believe this format will have the best players unhappy very quickly....  And, they contemplate a 48 player field, which is absurdly shallow to have any importance.

But, blow me away, nothing screams Member-Guest quite like a shotgun start, no?  

Q: What makes you think the game needs a new format?

PGL: We care passionately about the game and believe that, to thrive, it has to evolve. We want to ensure that as many people as possible learn to love and play golf. To do that you have to encourage as many people as possible to watch golf. That is our motivation.

If you want the world to watch, you have to showcase your best product, week-in-week-out. Golf doesn’t do that currently.

If you had the chance to start again you wouldn’t create professional golf as it exists today. The League is that chance.

Geoff, care to respond?

That’s a profound statement about starting from scratch and not using the general structure we have now. I’m not sure I entirely agree, but then again no one would say 72-holes of stroke play, 5:30 rounds and little match play makes sense.

I guess profundity has been devalued along with everything else these days....  But, we might want to concede that 72 holes of medal play has evolved as the default format for many reasons that remain valid.  We all crave some variance in formats, but none of us want the majors to be anything beyond what they are....  Like Geoff, we all have a desire to see more match play, at least in theory, but match play events don't really work in the age of television.

Q: You plan to launch the League in January 2022, will you succeed?

PGL: We were told you can’t take on the establishment and win, but we aren’t taking on the establishment – we intend to work with it – and 6 years on we believe we’ll succeed because the League is what fans, sponsors and broadcasters want – and the best players deserve. It will revitalize the sport for this and future generations.

Fans want to watch the best players competing in the best format. A truly prestigious world championship that is worth winning and worth watching.

They want condensed, world-class action, from start to finish, hence the shotgun-start and 5- hour broadcast window. Action, all over the course, when you switch on – the ability to tune in to the main broadcast, or choose your own shots and style of production, via streaming.

Watch who you want to watch, knowing that the team element means that every shot counts. The ability to get behind a team and closer to the players, with unprecedented access to the most entertaining content. And, of course, for those who attend, the best staging and facilities.

That guy in LA had this:

Wish we had a mention of going after architecturally interesting venues too, but you can’t have everything. Yet.

Passing strange that they didn't check Geoff's box, given that at this happy talk stage you can promise anything...  But, thye add this, which gets an "Amen" from Geoff:

And importantly, we’ll give fans a break from the game, with a 4-month off-season. The chance to miss world-class golf and look forward to its return. They don’t get that opportunity at the moment, owing to the overlapping, wrap-around seasons of existing tours, designed to maximize the playing opportunities for hundreds of professional golfers. It’s confusing and leads to fan fatigue.

They're smart enough to avoid going head-to-head with the NFL, but they can't seriously think that's enough crumbs to leave Jay?   Can they?

But here's where it starts to get....well, problematic:

Q: Will the top players really leave their existing tours to join?

PGL: There are a number of reasons we believe they will – the first being money. The world’s best players will have the opportunity to earn more by competing in the League; both in terms of prize money and endorsements.

As Geoff notes, that Kumbaya moment didn't last too long...  

We’ll pay $240m in prize money each season, rising over time. Shared between 48 players, that’s an average of $5m. Forty-eight players will compete for a share of $10m every weekend, 17 times per season. The winner will earn $2m each week and the individual world champion will receive a $10m bonus.

There will also be a $40m team purse, with $14m to the winning team ($3.5m per team member) – and we’ll pay a bonus to the winning team each week.

An individual will have the chance to win over $50m per season – more than on any other format, on a like-for-like basis (including bonuses), with major purses on top.

Those are some big numbers being thrown about, though it's hard to imagine that Jay and Nurse Ratched have left that much on the table...

Q: Isn’t that too much?

PGL: It’s what they’re worth. At the moment, the best – the true global stars – subsidise the rest. The League will rebalance the economics. The best player needs to compete, but not against 150 other guys every week – 47 will suffice.

Their off-course earnings should also rise. League players will have a higher, global profile; 48 stars, with higher endorsement values. A global format, comprised of only the best, will maximize the appeal of each player to major brands.

Our players should also benefit from the sponsorship premium to be generated by the collective team model. We will enable players and teams to offer sponsors greater value by, for example, providing money-can’t-buy access on and off the course. They will also be able to stream their own content – to maximize the value of their personalities, on and off the course.

Plus, selected players will have an opportunity to generate unprecedented value beyond their playing careers. We’ll give them part ownership of a team franchise and the chance to share in the significant equity value, created jointly, over time. The teams will generate revenue streams established in other sports but not previously achievable in golf. They will also enable players to remain relevant to the game beyond their competitive best – providing them with the opportunity to win the League as an owner and operator, secure investment, and both retain existing and attract new sponsors.

There will also be lifestyle benefits – for players.

What, no Pro-Ams? 

But this bit is quite the howler:

Q: What will happen to the PGA Tour if you succeed?

PGL: Golf’s entire ecosystem is important to us. We want every level of the game to be as healthy and robust as possible. Accordingly, we’ll protect the members of other tours by cooperating and providing financial support.

Let me see if I have this straight?  You'll surgically remove the top 48 players from the PGA Tour, and life won't change for them?   

And this as well:

Q: Didn’t Greg Norman attempt something similar and fail?

PGL: According to reports from the time, the attempt to establish the World Golf Tour in 1994 resulted in a threat to ban its participants and the creation of 4 World Golf Championships – all in the US. The world is now a different place, restraint of trade laws have changed, and the League is a very different proposition.

Of the four WGC's, two are currently played outside the US, so it might be helpful if they, you know, stuck to the truth.  More significantly, the PGA now has many more events outside the U.S., so it's a wee bit difficult to see the market need they do.

There's more at that link above, including a slightly deeper dive on the economics and lifestyle benefits for the players.  I do think it's interesting that this has arisen in the midst of the Tour restructuring its broadcast contracts, and potentially more than a little awkward.  Folks get skittish over long-term commitments, especially when the benefits are so ephemeral to begin with.

The team component remains especially puzzling to me, and relatively poorly defined.  As I understand it, four-man teams are contemplated, including some kind of ownership stake for the players in the actual teams.  Though how these might be former and why we should care remains a mystery.  I'm a big fan of team match play, though the lesson of the Presidents Cup to me is that there needs to be a logic to the team formation, whereby Not US and Not Europe falls short.

Plus, I'm assuming that this can only be team stroke play....  Not a horrible thing, but very much a different thing.

So, how are the players reacting?  Cautiously for sure... For instance, this guy:

At least one top player is “intrigued” by the idea of a potential alternative tour that appears to be gaining momentum.

“I'm curious, but I don't know enough to talk about it,'' Phil Mickelson told several reporters after missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. “I'm listening to it. I think it's intriguing, but I just don't know enough about it to comment publicly. I hope to learn more.”

Of course he's intrigued, they're throwing big numbers around.  But who cares what Phil thinks, because he's not invited...  This is for the top 48 players in the world, and Phil is now outside the top fifty.  The good news, his chances at the 2022 Bob Hope just increased dramatically....

This other guy, who figures to cop an invite, wants it both ways:

McIlroy was asked about the Premier Golf League, a potential competitor to the PGA

Tour that seems to be moving closer to an official launch. Details of the startup entity are still emerging, but according to a report from Golf Channel’s Geoff Shackelford, it would feature an 18-event schedule from January to September, 48-man fields and big-money payouts. 

“Those guys have been talking to a few of us for six years,” McIlroy said on Saturday. “They approached me at the end of 2014.

“You know, it’s a hard one. … I love the PGA Tour, but these guys have exploited a couple of holes in the system, the way golf at the highest level is nowadays and how it’s sort of transitioned from a competition tour to entertainment. Right? It’s on TV, it’s people coming out to watch. It’s definitely a different time than what it was before.” 

“But I love the PGA Tour, I love the way golf is set up right now,” McIlroy said. It should be noted that McIlroy won the PGA Tour’s signature individual event, the Players Championship, and the FedEx Cup title (along with its $15 million grand prize) in 2019. “So it might be the catalyst for something a little bit different out here as well, who knows.”

Hey, don't blame him that it is both less filling and tastes great.... 

The gist of the matter is that the elite players feel that they are underpaid, effectively subsidizing their tours.  Interestingly, these discussions feature very little consideration of the European Tour, which would seem to rank higher on any endangered species list.

But my prediction is that 2022 will come and go with no World Golf Series Tour de Force Premiere Golf League.  First and foremost, because I have a hard time seeing the market opportunity.  reread Rory's comments and I think you'll agree....  there's a few things that annoy him, and as a Euro he's squeezed more than the Americans, but at it's core it's a pretty sweet gig.  

Secondly, they seem to think that The Empire will not Strike Back....  Good luck with that:

The PGA Tour is raising the prize money at The Players Championship to $15 million, making it the largest purse in golf unless any of the majors decide to up the ante this year. 

The winner of March 12-15 event at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, will receive $2.7 million, nearly as much as Tiger Woods earned in his first two seasons as a pro. 

PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan announced the increase at the annual players meeting this week at Torrey Pines during the Farmers Insurance Open, according to several players.

I understand that players' meeting was absolutely lit...

But, as always, Robert Conquest's first law of politics (life, actually) applies:

1. Everyone is conservative about what he knows best.

Alternatively, a bird in the hand...  I see this as an insoluble dilemma....  They'll listen and be intrigued by big numbers and an easier workload, but they'll inevitably close ranks behind the organization that made them multi-millionaires....  Of course, as Rory hints, they'll use it as leverage, I just don't see a big break as being in the cards. 

The again, I picked Sergio to win all those Open Championships....It might make things more interesting, though, and that's not a bad thing.

Late-Week Lamentations

Remember way back to yesterday, when there wasn't much of anything to discuss?  I do what I can, but I'm just the messenger...

The Reviews Are In - I didn't see a minute of it, but others did:

How did Tiger play? 

The Big Cat impressed in his first event of 2020, firing a round of three-under-par 69 that included five birdies and two bogeys. Woods is currently T21, three shots behind the leaders.

Anyone else we care about?

How did the other big names play? 

Rory McIlroy and Bubba Watson are only one shot off the lead after opening rounds of five under par. Jon Rahm is two back after firing a four-under-par 68, and Patrick Reed is tied with Tiger at three under par overall. 

Other players of note include Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth (-2); Cameron Champ (-1); Phil Mickelson (E), Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day (+1); Justin Rose, Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler (+3), Matthew Wolff (+4) and Francesco Molinari (+7).

Let's just take a moment to contemplate the rather dramatic fall of Frankie Molinari....  From seeming invincibility as he walked to the 12th tee at Augusta back in April, there seems no bottom to his freefall.  

Of course we're at Torrey, and none of these accounts nor the Golf.com leaderboard advise as to S or N, rendering status unclear until thirty-six holes have been played.  Tiger's 69 was on the North, so is necessarily less than it seems...  

The good news?  I think Molinari's 77 was on the tougher South, so... well, who am I kidding?  There's no course-difficulty adjustment that makes T152 remotely palatable.

Craving more detail?

On Thursday in his latest return after a break of five weeks, Woods needed just two holes to get in tune at Torrey Pines in his 2020 debut. On the sun-splashed, seaside resort where he’s won eight times – including the 2008 U.S. Open on a broken leg – Woods

eased his way into the new year with a satisfying 3-under 69 on the North Course for the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open.

“I definitely was feeling it,” Woods said. “I missed the competition. I was trying to keep everything as calm as I possibly could. I didn’t do a very good job of that starting out, I made a quick bogey there. I felt like I fought back and there’s a lot of positives heading to the South Course.” 

After a pushed approach on the par-5 10th – his first hole of the round – and a chunked flop shot on the 11th from just in front of the green that led to a bogey, Woods didn’t miss too many shots going forward. That is, except for a chip on the 18th that had too much zip and rolled 45 feet from the hole and led to a bogey. 

Other than that, he was calm, cool and collected on a serene day. Looking lean and fit and with nary a hint of rust, the world No. 6 made good use of his new TaylorMade SIM driver – he spent more than 90 minutes on the back of the range Tuesday getting the club dialed in.

Tuesday?  It's just funny, because it was his Wednesday range session that folks were calling golf porn.  No, really.

He looked healthy, which is pretty much all that matters...  Otherwise, we all just need to pace ourselves, because we're still three months out from golf that matters.  Maybe two, if you think that the Players Championship counts.

Fun With Rankings - Shane Ryan will serve as your amusement for the morning, though he doesn't actually deliver on this premise:

The Excitement Scale: Ranking the PGA Tour’s 65 most watchable pros

Really, all he does is group them into amusing categories, but that's not a bad thing::

The “I Want to Care More, But You Have to Make Me” Tier 

Who knows what evil lurks within?

42: Matthew Fitzpatrick

41: Tony Finau

40: Cameron Champ 

The “Seemingly Nondescript/Good, But Might Throw You a Massive Curveball” Tier 

39: Webb Simpson 

The “Staid Gentlemen/Class Act/Pro’s Pro/High Character/Gracious Fellows” Tier 

38: Adam Scott

37: Justin Rose

Wasn't I just reliably informed, by Michael Collins it so happens, that this is the year we hear about Adam Scott's bad behavior?

 I quite agree that this guy deserves a category of his own:

The “I Guarantee You Something Weird Will Happen With This Guy Within, Like, a Month” Tier 

32: Kevin Na

Since we've little else, care for some more?

The “Extreme Talent That Maybe Burns a Little Too Bright” Tier 

15: Jon Rahm 

The “Extreme Talent That Maybe Burns a Little Too Soft” Tier 

14: Jason Day 

The “Please Let This Guy Be Extremely Good Again, I Love Him, Can’t You See I Love Him?” Tier 

13: Henrik Stenson 

The “Dear God Just Win a Major to Stop the Ceaseless Soul-Killing Discourse” Tier 

12: Rickie Fowler

Yeah, Rickie would do us all a favor if he'd just grab a major one of these days.  Or anything, really.

Of course, you're dying to know the medalists:

The “Villain Who Wouldn’t Be Believable in a Work of Fiction” Tier 

2: Patrick Reed 

The "Eternal Golf God Who Will Command Our Attention Until the Universe Implodes" Tier 

1: Tiger Woods

I know, I'm shocked as well....  All good fun.

I Saw It On TV -  Though, apparently I was the only one:

You can understand when LPGA Commissioner Mike Whan pines for network coverage after seeing last weekend’s ratings. That’s when the Diamond Resorts TOC aired on NBC while The American Express (formerly the Bob Hope/Chrysler/Humana/Clinton/Careerbuilder/Desert/) was on Golf Channel. 

According to Showbuzzdaily.com’s wrap-up of weekend sports ratings, the LPGA drew a .40 on NBC each weekend day, averaging 595,000 and 587,000 viewers respectively.

Meanwhile, the final round of the The American Express won by Andrew Landry, went up against the NFL’s Titans-Chiefs AFC Championship game on CBS and averaged 227,000 viewers to draw a .04. The round did, however, edge out a particularly powerful episode of Vet Exotic on National Geographic to be the 137th cable show of the weekend.

Also airing at the same time as the LPGA and the PGA Tour on ESPN2: the tape delayed final round of the Latin America Amateur. That telecast drew a .03 and 121,000 average viewers.

Those numbers are shockingly small, which is why I don't often blog on this subject.  But it's really hard to imagine that AMEX could be happy at those numbers...  

Rumor Central - Shack pulls back the curtain on a potential threat to the Ponte Vedra feedlot:

A multi-year effort to create a star-driven global golf tour has gained momentum again.

Multiple sources have confirmed to GeoffShackelford.com that after years of attempting

to commence the World Golf Group’s vision with a 2020 start date, organizers are making another fervent bid to lure top players away from the PGA and European Tours with plans to start in 2022 or 2023. The concept, first revealed by Reuters in 2018, has been alternatively known as the World Golf Series or “Tour de Force.”

“It seems to resurface at different times,” said Mark Steinberg, the only agent willing to go on the record about the concept. “It’s obviously resurfacing right now. We’ll see if they take it to the next level.”

Two other well-known player representatives confirmed that the concept had serious legitimacy and that players were considering the proposal. Three other agents contacted declined to comment, while four players with knowledge of the proposal would only confirm details, fearful of fines for discussing a potential PGA Tour competitor.

Veddy interesting....  Obviously this is well-orchestrated behind the scenes, our Steiny doesn't just confirm things unless he has a vested interest in doing so.  As noted, this has been floating around for some time, and 30 seconds of Googling returns this 2018 Golfweek item on the subject, which just happens to include this spit-your-drink-out howler:

The PGA Tour would likely oppose the start up, given the obvious conflicts over top talent. Another hurdle would be getting sanctioned by the Official World Golf Ranking organization so that players could earn ranking points. Among the OWGR founding members are the PGA Tour, Augusta National, the USGA and R&A. 

None of those groups have a history or reputation of embracing immediate and radical change.

No they don't, but such an effort is irrelevant to the USGA and R&A...

Back to Shack, who fills in some sketchy details:

So how would this new global tour work? 

The original concept featured 54-hole, no-cut events to would be spread around the world while allowing players to still earn world ranking points needed to qualify for major championships and earn endorsement money. Purses were originally pegged to be in the $10 million range, but those numbers may climb while retaining backdoor appearance fees that would add to player and agent coffers.

Beyond the huge money, the lengthy, well-formulated pro-forma passed around to golf industry figures lobs several jabs at the current state of the professional golf “product.” Financing is believed to come from a combination of sources, including Tokyo-based Softbank, and private equity investment from several regions including the United States and the Middle East.

Perhaps most interesting is that revival of this proposition comes as the Tour is finalizing its rights packages .  Equally curious, is this tease from Geoff:

In the coming days I will detail how the proposed formats will work and why the concept could be of interest to golf viewers.

This should be good fun....  

The Tour's relentless expansion of its schedule is designed to protect against such a threat, so it's hard for me to imagine such an effort getting traction.  On the other hand, they've had it coming for some time.

Popcorn, popped.  Have a great weekend.

Thursday Threads

It suddenly got quiet out there, really very little to kick around as await kick-off at Torrey....  I'm just the messenger.

These Kids Today, The Girl Kind - I meant to include this in yesterday's Distaff Dispatches, but since lately I've had the attention span of a mollusk...  There is surprise at this decision in some quarters, though not too much from your humble blogger:

Australia's reigning US Women's Amateur champion Gabi Ruffels has become the first high-profile golfer to decline an invitation to play the Augusta National Women's Amateur in April. 

Ruffels, the younger sister of professional golfer Ryan Ruffels, qualified for the Augusta event that precedes the Masters when she became the first Australian to win the US Women's Amateur Championship last year. 

But the Augusta event runs against the first professional women's major of the year – the ANA Inspiration – and Ruffels has decided to tee up in that event in California from April 2-5. 

"Yeah it was a really tough decision, but I think we all decided ANA would be the best," Ruffels said.

Alternative title:  Great Moments in Passive-Aggressiveness.   From the poobahs at Augusta National, of course... I remain in awe of their game, unable to make their gesture to the ladies without bigfooting the LPGA and their first major.  Because, you know, there was simply no other weekend on which they could schedule this event.

I have no opinion on the decision of this or any other player, they of course need to decide where to peg it for themselves.  But note the world class arrogance of those in green blazers, just assuming that the rest of the golf world would conform to their needs.  

But I've further thought that the event itself might lose a little luster after the novelty expired.  They had a great inaugural event, a popular champion and a great set-up that generated back nine heroics just like that other event they hold, so no problem there... 

It would be quite the delicious irony if more girls made the same call as Gabi, lending their support to the folks that have actually contributed to women's golf for an eternity.  Augusta National's embrace of the ladies is, in contrast, rather late and half-hearted (remember, only one tournament round is played on the hallowed grounds).

Predictions Are Hard - Especially when you're not the sharpest knife in the drawer....  ESPN's Michael Collins offers some predictions for 2020, and some aren't laugh out loud ridiculous...But just some...  I'll focus on those related to the Open Championship to demonstrate my point:

Tiger Woods wins another major. 

It'll be the last one of the year: The 149th Open. (Oh, you still forgot that's the last one, didn't you?) Too bad it's not 2021, because it would be even more iconic if he did it at St. Andrews. But that's next year.

There have been a number of folks predicting this, so no shame there.  I would be the other direction, based on weather and prior history at the venue. but that's why there's horse racing...

But further on in the piece comes this:

We will have a winner for worst venue for The Open. 

Some of Royal St. George's past winners: J.H. Taylor, Jack White, Reg Whitcombe, Bill Rogers, Ben Curtis ... hey, wake up! At least Tiger gives it some class by winning.

Is Sandwich a bad venue?   It's got that rep, dating back at least to Jack's quip that Open venues go South the further, well, South one goes....It's the one current rota course I've not made it to, so my reaction is necessarily second hand.  I do know many folks that enjoy it greatly, but it's a quirky track with many blind shots and other eccentricities, the kind of thing professional golfers tend to hate.

But it's that list of past winners that offends, because it's disingenuously incomplete.  While Sandwich has delivered those unimpressive Champion Golfers of Year, would you have any interest in knowing who else has won there?  Oh, let's see, there was Harry Vardon, twice as it so happens.  Also Walter Hagen, again twice, as well as Bobby Locke, Henry Cotton and Greg Norman.  

But the real curiosity is that first name on the list, one of the giants of our game in its formative years:

John Henry "J.H." Taylor (19 March 1871 – 10 February 1963) was an English professional golfer and one of the pioneers of the modern game of golf. Taylor is considered to be one of the best golfers of all time. He was a significant golf course architect. Taylor helped to found the British PGA, the world's first, and became respected for his administrative work. He also wrote two notable golf books.

Anyone that could put J.H. Taylor, who won five Open Championships in the same list as Ben Curtis has little business offering his opinion on our game.  

He also had this bit that intrigued me:

This will be the year Adam Scott turns heel 

He's had two caddies that were, well, aggressive. Tony Navarro got into a scuffle with a fan at the 2008 U.S. Open while on Scott's bag. Then there was Steve Williams, who isn't quiet. Nobody sees Scott's behavior. This is the year people see it.

Does anyone know what he's talking about?  I can't remember any murmurs about the Aussie's behavior.  On the contrary, I've always assumed that one reason he' so underachieved is that he's too nice a guy...  Of course, I just violated my own advice, crediting an insight form a guy that thinks J.H. Taylor was a turn-of-the-century Tour rabbit.

Oh, and Michael's not finished doubling down on stupid:

The R&A finally changes the name of its major to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Open. 

Listen, everybody calls their championship the Open. The U.S. Open, to people in the U.S., is the Open. The Canadian Open, to people in Canada, is the Open. Everyone else calls it the British Open and they get mad. Just for spite, the R&A finally starts calling it by its full and proper name.

Remind me, Michael, in the unlikely event you actually know the answer, but which one came first?  Just to be clear, Michael, when they named it The Open Championship, it was the only one.  

State of the Torrey - Since we'll all probably tune in, hey, no football, you might have interest in Geoff's thoughts on the condition of Torrey Pines:

Torrey Pines Update: Tougher, Way Fewer Trees, Same Architectural Humdrum

As a pair of Farmers Insurance Opens and the 2021 U.S. Open are set for Torrey Pines, the stakes are high for Tiger Woods in pursuit of win no. 83 and who-knows-what-major-

number next summer. The conditioning struggles of 2008 are long gone and a pricey new irrigation system will continue to ensure sound turf conditions as long as superintendent Rich McIntosh is around.

For the 2020 Farmers, you will see some scarring left over from the two-hole-at-a-time irrigation installation method of last summer, but the courses are in otherwise excellent condition, with the North sporting more stout rough (and pretty narrow landing areas). With disease and beetle issues claiming a tragic number of Torrey Pines, the property has better views but is lacking a little something without the native tree for which the facility is named.

Also on tap will be our first look at newly configured elements on the 4th, 9th, 10th and 17th holes.

The 4th features a reshaped landing area designed to remedy issues from the 2008 when balls would not stay in the fairway under faster, firmer conditions. The shaping of the new work is quite good, fitting the hole better to existing landforms and presenting a more intimidating looking hole. How the balls react and where they finish, is still to be determined.

The most dramatic work from last summer can be seen at the par-4 17th, long a bit of a snoozefest for a penultimate hole and now hugging the canyon edge. It will force a decision between laying back and leaving an uphill 200-yard approach or hitting driver to get less club in. A huge risk that I suspect most players will not take, but at least it’s there and we’ll see just how aggressive the world’s best will get.

It's really quite shocking how drab this course has always been.  You'd naively think that if you built a course (or two) on bluffs over the Pacific Ocean, that you'd feature said ocean in your routing and design.  But the original routing went to pains to keep you at a distance from the briny sea, and it took Rees Jones to at least allow the golfer to sense its presence on a handful of holes.  

I almost missed this item on Golf Magazine's course raters' thoughts on the joint.  First, to the question of it being over-rated:

Sho Tobari (Panelist since 1990; has played 56 of the World Top 100): A little too high. Beautiful scenery and location, but not much strategic routing. I like the South Course and I play both courses often, but they don’t give me the sensation of playing courses of the highest echelon. They place is closer to 30-40 in my ranking.

Jeff Lewis (Panelist since 2003; has played 97 of the World Top 100): Torrey’s ranking is extremely high. It’s hard not to get a kick out of walking in the footsteps of our heroes when certain venues routinely host huge, televised events. One of the most unique aspects of being a golfer is that anyone can play the U.S. Open, Open Championship or PGA Championship courses without needing special access. But it’s those two components that often lead to overrated golf courses hosting big events and having pretty views. Check and check, in Torrey’s case. I would say it should probably be in the 60s or 70s of the Courses-You-Can-Play ranking.

As well as this Q and A:

Originally designed by William Bell in the late 1950s, the North and South courses have both been renovated since, the South by Rees Jones, the North by Tom Weiskopf. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each course? And if you had carte blanche, what changes, if any, would you make?

Lewis: I would love to see some photos of the originals, but I suspect that there has never really been anything to work with there. The post-war period through the emergence of Pete Dye is what we call the Dark Age of golf architecture. We could wipe it all away and not lose much of anything. Great courses have central hazards: bunkers, streams, barrancas, whatever. They combine decision-making and execution. Torrey North and South generally have their fairway bunkers on the sides and are mostly pretty straight. Bland is the best word. I would imagine that a redesign that created more strategic interest with more aspects with which to contend in the line of play would be a big plus.

C'mon, tell us what you really think about the Trent Jones era...

Cheap Shots - Just because we can:

Chambers Bay is much better than you remember - Fair enough, but it would almost have to be.

Callaway Chrome Soft family will be more different from each other than ever before to better meet the needs of different players - But, for the time being, not for those who insist that the core  be in the center of their golf ball.

Phil Mickelson is moving to Jupiter, where he’ll have famous golf neighbors - I just hope he's not expecting to get comped at Woods Jupiter.

What’s the biggest difference between pros and amateurs? - These days, two commas.

The program that eliminates cheating and sandbagging at your golf course for good - Great. Next do something hard, take on vanity handicaps.

Lexi Thompson back to work in Boca after helicopter ride with Greg Norman - Please tell me he wore a shirt...

Midweek Musings

Life is a wee bit complicated in the present moment, so just a few items for today.... 

Wither Jordan - The artist formerly known as Jordan Spieth makes his 2020 debut this week at Torrey, having withdrawn from the Sony at the last minute because of a....cold?  No doubt he'd "OK, Boomer" me if he reads this, but couldja be more of a snowflake, precious?

In any event, folks seem surprisingly interested in the State of the Jordan:

His winless spell has seen him fall to No. 45 in the world and has led some to wonder if he’s at a crossroads despite being 26. It’s a valid view seeing as Spieth’s had just 10 top-10s in 49 worldwide starts the past two years. 

Spieth, however, isn’t having any of that crossroads talk. He remains confident a return to his best days is in the offing and is committed in his plan to get there. 

“I kind of feel blank-slated here,” Spieth said Tuesday. “I’m almost approaching it like I did in 2013, where I was kind of hopefully ready to kind of bounce back to where I’ve been in the past. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen right away, but kind of build to that.

“I feel like I got out of the fall tournaments what I wanted to, to an extent. It was a little trial and error and I was able to have some time to rest and then recover and then practice gearing up. 

“Big picture, I have a really good frame of mind, which should allow me to build some patience into getting my game where I want it to be.”

Let me see if I follow... You're in a good frame of mind, said good frame of mind being blank.  And you got what you needed from the fall events, though how you know that in view of the aforementioned blankness will just have to remain one of life's mysteries.

But Jordan digs deeper into his process for us:

“I expect to be certainly going out and trusting what I can trust, and whether that goes really well to start or it builds up, I know I’m on the right track,” he said.

The astute reader might notice that Jordan doesn't consider the full range of possibilities....  Can't say I blame him, but all this trusting and hopefulness is great until, you know, reality kicks in.

In this Golf Digest piece he goes a bit more analytical:

Spieth resorted to technology with which he was familiar to discover where his swing, notably with his driver, had strayed from the route that had taken him to No. 1 in the

world for an extended stay. 

He was alerted to “red flags,” he said, “and then adjust accordingly. The idea is to try and do it obviously when things are going really well. That’s probably the most important time to go do something, so you can get back on track.

“All in all, I’m just trying to get my timing down a little bit better. It’s nothing crazy, nothing wild, no big changes or anything. It’s just simply finding ways to go back in time to where I’m swinging my swing instead of trying to do anything special.” 

Taking it from 3D modeling to tournament rounds on the PGA Tour is the challenge, of course. However it plays out, his attitude is that it’s a start. “It’s when I kind of start to garner that control on the range and kind of transfer to rounds I play at home and transfer it to rounds on Tuesday, Wednesday and then you take it into tournament play.

Sounds easy enough...  I'm not especially optimistic on the kid, but golf is more fun with him in the mix.  Given my inclination to write him off, it would follow that he'll win at Harding Park and complete the career slam.

Hall Pass - Is there anything in our game more pitiful than the Hall of Fame?  OK, I'll concede Robert Allenby, but besides that?  Anyway, starved for relevance, the Hall dropped this press release yesterday:

World Golf Hall of Fame Modifies Selection Process Including Age Eligibility for Enshrinement 

ST. AUGUSTINE, Fla. (Jan. 21, 2020) – World Golf Foundation Board of Directors has voted to make several changes to the World Golf Hall of Fame eligibility and Induction process in an effort to ensure the game’s greats from around the world are actively recognized and celebrated. 

Changes to the eligibility include lowering the age of a Male or Female Competitor from 50 to 45 years of age or three years retired from the game. A player will be eligible for Induction provided he or she turns 45 the year of the Induction Ceremony. Additional changes include elimination of the Veterans category and replacing “Lifetime Achievement” recognition with “Contributor.”

A few years back they were at 40, an absurdly low age given the longevity in our sport.  Shack pokes them a bit on this latest change:

…and still no players will show up to the ceremony unless they are inducted or are paid to be there. 

Backstory: the Hall once took people as young as 40, then got ripped for inducting people in their prime, subsequently raising the age to 50. And now a middle ground.

Nobody shows up for the enshrinement of Jan Stephenson?  Another shock to the system....

Of course, I'm sure that this has nothing to do with a current resident of Jupiter, FL, who coincidentally will celebrate his 45th birthday this coming December.  Problem is, you're have to recast that plaque when he wins his 19th major in four years....

Distaff Doings - Did you catch the LPGA season-opening event?  Maybe not, because it went a little long:

Having already battled for five extra holes into darkness without producing a champion a day earlier, Gaby Lopez and Nasa Hataoka showed up to work at 8 a.m., just like regular

folks.

The early wake-up call and extra golf was worth it for Lopez, who rolled in a 30-foot birdie putt to prevail on the seventh playoff hole Monday and capture the season-opening Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions.

It was the second LPGA title for Lopez, who 14 months ago became the second player from Mexico to win on tour, joining World Golf Hall of Fame member Lorena Ochoa. She earned $180,000 for the victory.

Believe it or not, that shockingly low winner's purse is the least of the matter.

As Geoff notes, we've seen this movie before with the gals:

We’ve been through this before. The LPGA’s insistence on exclusively conducting sudden-death playoffs at the 18th hole can be tedious. Other tours are increasingly doing the same.

But I believe we have a new insanity record to ponder after the Diamond Resorts Invitational finished Monday morning following seven turns at the 197-yard 18th. (Eight total including the final round.)

Obviously they do that because the 18th green is the prime viewing area, and it's no big deal if the playoff settles matters quickly.

I don't know if Geoff has the same memory as I, of a playoff won by Lydia a few years ago at the season-ending event where they kept playing the difficult Par-4 18th.  Because it was a stern Par-4, the players inevitably kept making pars, and pars can be boring.

But how crazy is it to finish on a Par-3?  A playoff will always be a coin-flip, but can we not at least allow for the illusion that we're testing their games.  On a Par-4 or Par-5, they at least have to hit two different kinds of golf shots, and one never knows what kind of shot one will be left with into the green.

Here's the bit from that AP item above that blew me (and Shack) away:

“I do have a feeling for this hole. I like it. It was a perfect number for me to be honest. Yesterday I was hitting 4-hybrid, 3-hybrid, 4-hybrid. The wind was down, the wind was into, it got cold and it was hard for me to figure out the number. This morning with my coach and caddie we kind of figured out the number with Trackman and it was the perfect number for me.”

Ya got that?  She only had to play one golf shot, so she could dial it in using technology....  How is that a test of golf?

I've also come the conclusion that difficult holes make for boring playoffs.  Professional golfers are so good at getting up-and-down from anywhere, that a playoff on such a hole will inevitably result in an endless stream of pars.

Best Pravda Headline Evah? -  Probably not, given that it's such a competitive category.  But I think you'll agree that they know their base:

Golf Club for the 1 Percent Wants to Seize a Migratory Bird Habitat

Fair enough.  But given that we're all gonna die in twelve years regardless, is this really important?  

Here's their lede:

JERSEY CITY, N.J. — The snowy owl was first spotted just beyond the 18th hole of one 

of the most expensive golf courses ever built. 

The bird was resting on a sandy beach filled with seashells and driftwood at the edge of Liberty State Park. Waves lapped the New Jersey shoreline of the Hudson River as birders with binoculars stood in awe two years ago. 

Nearby, behind a tall black fence, were the willow-lined fairways of Liberty National, an exclusive private golf course where luminaries like Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka have played, and where the original initiation fee for members was about half a million dollars.

Truly a battle of good vs. evil...  Here, though, is the crux of the issue:

The outcropping of land, known as Caven Point, is a migratory bird habitat where spotted sandpipers and American oystercatchers nest near elevated walkways that allow visitors to wander, from March to October, through tall reeds and onto the sandy beach. The other half of the year the wildlife is considered too fragile to permit access. 

But it is there that Liberty National officials say they hope to build three new holes, bringing more of the 18-hole course closer to the water’s telegenic edge and helping it draw high-profile PGA Tour events that supporters say spin off economic benefits for the state. 

“If we are not able to accommodate what these tournaments need, then they will simply go somewhere else that can,” said Chris Donnelly, a spokesman for Liberty National.

Now, you might be surprised, but in this case it's not simply a case of the runaway golf ball:

A spokesman for the PGA Tour, Joel Schuchmann, confirmed that the size of Liberty National had become a consideration, particularly for the Northern Trust, which is the first event in its FedEx Cup playoffs each year.

“It’s true that as the PGA Tour, and the FedEx Cup playoffs specifically, continue to grow in stature and interest among our fans, media and partners, so does the need to make certain the proper footprint is in place,” Mr. Schuchmann said in a statement.

I don't even know how they manage to get those folks Living Under Par™ to the site.  But let's root for the enviros, I know, not what you expected from me, but perhaps the Tour will go back to Ridgewood or Plainfield.  Do it for the children snowy owls.

On Gambling - Geoff has a fun rant on legalized gambling and our precious little game.  Here's a sample:

I’ve heard from a few folks not understanding my views expressed on recent podcast about pro golf gambling. They have not seen me turn a Daily Racing Form into a whip or turn to my Bovada app as a PGA Tour Sunday unfolds and a 20-1 shot sitting three back

has an eagle putt.

Gambling could be a great thing for PGA Tour coffers, their media partners and fan interest. With “fantasy” stakes invested in players, fans will find a way to sit through the tedium that is the five-hour round (and growing). But even if the focus is building a lineup each week and rooting for your selections based on research, today’s players seem unlikely to handle the scrutiny well. All too many have come to believe that their every move is a private matter where the exercise of playing in front of fans and media is nothing but an annoyance. And this is without legalized gambling. 

Say, in 2021, many states have legalized sports bettering and you can wager on PGA Tour golf, consider what fans will want to know and what media will be obligated to report: every observable pee-tournament detail that will be of interest to fantasy players and gamblers.

Actually, the sums involved seem to be more on the paltry side, and their embrace is only to protect the integrity of the game.  To which, I can only ask, Why start now?

But what Goeff seems to elide, is the extent to which the Tour's penchant for secrecy will conflict directly with the needs of the gambling community.  He frames his argument in the context of faux-observations from a practice round:

Today, during the closed-to-the-public practice round at the Farmers Insurance Open, I observed things that would be of interest to those making a lineup this week. Names will not be included, but imagine how upsetting these observations would be if names were involved and social media employed to help gamblers make a wagering decision. A sampling: 

—________, who was once addicted to his Trackman, was seen hitting balls without it and talking to someone who is not the instructor he has been officially linked to.

—_______ cancelled a planned nine-hole practice round to keep working with the new driver he’s trying to put in his bag. Tour team members were busy making adjustments and trying to find him a gamer.

—_______looked lost on the practice putting green, using alignment tools, instructing his caddie to record every putt for video review, and appearing utterly confused.

—________came to the course today but appeared under the weather and instead went to the fitness trailer for medical aid. 

—Because of a balky back, ________ was heard saying he can practice his putting for more than 30 minutes and hasn’t been able to hit balls how he’d like as he prepares to kick off his 2020 season on a course he’s played well at.

It's true enough, but where did this expectation of "privacy" originate?  I'm going with Ponte Vedra Beach, if only because it allows a reminder of DJ's unfortunate jet-ski accident a few years ago.

But look no further than Tiger, methinks.  If gambling had been legal in 2019, there would have been some angry folks that lost shekels betting on him all summer, only to find out after the fact that he was injured.

Golf In The Kingdom, 2020 - Just a tease for y'all, though perhaps it's mostly for my own self.  We have booked ourselves for a return visit for a return visit to the Kingdom of Fife in late July/early August, We will set up house in Pittenweem, reputed to be the only working fishing village left on the East Neuk.  It's the next village over from St. Monans, where we stayed last summer, so all of our acclimation will remain useful.

We are now overseas members of Crail Golfing Society, and we'll see how that suits us for the longer term.  We'll obviously avail ourselves of the daily ballot and hopefully have another day on the Old Course, one of the great pleasures of the golfing life, as well the other local courses.  But the real question is, who wants to visit us while we're there?

Tuesday Tastings

My family obligations were pushed to the afternoon, so let's have at it... A warning though, a brief review of my open tabs hints that this will be a high-snark post.  Carpe diem.

Wither Golf or, More Accurately, Wither Tiger - I get it, Tiger will peg it Thursday at Torrey, and all impulse control capabilities mysteriously vanish.  First, the lede question from yesterday's Tour Confidential panel:

Tiger Woods will make his 2020 PGA Tour debut this week at the Farmers Insurance Open, at Torrey Pines. Woods had an up-and-down-and-up 2019, winning the Masters, then cooling off for much of the season, before a fall surge saw him win the Zozo Championship in Japan and put on a ball-striking clinic during a 3-0 run at the Presidents Cup. Woods is now ranked 7th in the world. Will he finish the 2020 Tour season higher or lower in the world ranking? And why? 

Sean Zak: I think Tiger progresses in 2020. The more we learn about 2019, the more it seems like his body wasn’t totally right during the summer. If he’s all there, it’s fair to

expect more consistent play all year. No post-Masters lull; actual contention at another major. Kinda like 2018, but with another win. 

Josh Sens: If he stays healthy, plays all the majors and cherry picks his traditional favorites, I think we’ll see him creep another spot or two higher. None of which will really matter in our Tiger-watch. We’re watching for the majors, and I believe he’ll get another of those. 

Michael Bamberger: I don’t think Tiger had an up-and-down year. I think that’s what his golf is going to be like now. He’ll contend far less often, and he’ll win far less often, but he has shown he can still win when the moon and stars align. Point being, there’s not much upside, but if he can stay in the top 20, that’s a great accomplishment and that could include a win. 

Dylan Dethier: What Tiger has working against him is a limited schedule — he may play just a dozen times — but what he has going for him is that he remains among the most consistent performers in the world. I’d say he ends the year as World No. 5.

It's getting a bit tedious, no?  We have no clue as to the state of his body, without which predictions are pretty worthless.   The follow up is slightly more interesting, due mostly to its limited scope:

This time last year most of you esteemed pundits were saying that Woods would likely have a nice week at Torrey, but none of you picked him to win. Said Dethier of Woods’ odds, “I think Tiger belongs somewhere behind Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy, but not like — way behind.” How about this year? Given his hot play at the end of 2019, should Tiger be the favorite to win at Torrey? 

Sens: Given Tiger’s recent form, and his history at Torrey, I’d tweak Dethier’s prediction from last year and say he belongs right about in the same odds as any of those guys. 

Zak: Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win any event he plays, and rightfully so. When he’s playing (like this week), Justin Thomas is next. I’ll put Tiger right behind both of them, so he’s among the favorites, but not THE favorite. 

Dethier: Solid analysis, Dethier! I think that was true at the time but he’s crept up a bit. Zak’s right. 

Bamberger: If the rough is anything like it was last year, I’d put his chances to win at close to zero. If he plays through a cold fog, lower yet.

The difference is somewhat interesting.  Last year we had the high of the Tour Championship, followed by the dispiriting Ryder Cup (and a long layoff).  Here he finished quite strong, excluding that Saturday no mas in Melbourne.  But, as per William Goldman, nobody knows anything.

ESPN does a similar bit with their golf writers, though some of these guys might want to update their resumes:

1. Did the end of 2019 set expectations too high for 2020? 

Bob Harig: No doubt. But it's understandable. Expectations were extremely low after the summer, when Woods seemed like a guy who had sold his soul to win the Masters. The poor form, the bad back, a withdrawal due to an oblique injury. Woods never looked right. And then he had knee surgery, which suggested he'd have even more issues with his game. And yet, that unlocked all of the issues. Woods, after a shaky start, won in Japan. He played well enough to win in the Bahamas. And he was the best player at the Presidents Cup. It's hard not to think everything is moving in the right direction as 2020 begins for him. 

But there is that small matter of Saturday, no?  So when you say "Everything" is moving in the right direction? 

Michael Collins: Didn't matter. Let's be honest, even if Woods had finished last at Zozo and gone 0-3 at the Presidents Cup, all everyone would do is make excuses for why those didn't matter and "blah blah blah" is why Tiger is going to shatter 2019. It's Tiger Woods -- when do all of us not overreact? Or does everyone forget "experts" picking him to win the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla after back surgery and a WD at the Bridgestone Invitational two weeks earlier? 

Except, Mike, if he had finished last at the ZoZo he probably wouldn't have played at the Prez Cup.... 

Ian O'Connor: I don't think so. I think most people realize that Woods will never again dominate like he did in his prime, and that he will remain an opportunist for the rest of his career, picking off a win here and there. I do believe Woods will be the favorite at the Masters, as he should be. As the defending champ whose body should still be fresh in April, Woods will be more dangerous at Augusta than anyone. 

Mark Schlabach: Expectations are going to be through the roof, no doubt about it, after he made such a miraculous turnaround at the end of 2019. But we can't forget how bad he looked at the PGA Championship and The Open, followed by the WD at the Northern Trust. Was it all because of the knee injury? Did the Masters really take that much out of him? Can he continue to flip a switch on and off? 

Nick Pietruszkiewicz: This might be perhaps the one and only time I ever type these words: I agree with Michael. We live in a world of extremes when it comes to Woods. He plays well, and the shouts start about multiple victories and catching Jack Nicklaus' 18 majors before the year is out. He plays poorly, and the cries start that he's done, his career is over. So Zozo and the Presidents Cup will make the expectations unreasonable. That just how it goes. When it comes to Woods, we're never reasonable with expectations -- good or bad.

What do you mean by "we"?  Some of us have been preaching caution all along...

Having waved that yellow caution flag, they now immediately forget all caution:

2. How many times does Tiger win in 2020? 

Harig: So much depends on his health. The Tiger at the end of 2020 can contend anywhere. The Tiger of the summer can't win at all. Throw in the fact that he plays a lot of tough golf courses with strong fields and it makes winning all the more difficult. I'm going with two victories, but certainly would not be surprised if it is more.

Collins: A healthy Woods will win three times, including The Open at Royal St. George's. He'll also win a WGC event and a playoff event. Now if Woods has any health setbacks, well, then all bets are off. My hope is that those three wins are in fewer than 10 starts because that is what will keep him healthy. 

O'Connor: I'll say twice, with a few near-misses mixed in. Woods looked really healthy in Japan and in Australia at the end of the year, which should scare all those young guns who said they wanted to compete against an able Tiger and maybe should've been more careful with what they were wishing for. 

Schlabach: I think he'll win at least one, maybe two. Again, I want to see how his health holds up over the course of a long season before making any bold predictions. He's going to continue to pick and choose his starts, which is smart. He looked unflappable at Augusta last April, and then everything seemed to fall apart for months. At 44, and given his health history, you just never know when things can take a turn for the worse. 

Pietruszkiewicz: What did I just say about being unreasonable? I tend to not take my own advice, don't listen to my own calls for caution. Yeah, I'm guilty after watching how much control he had of his body and game at Zozo and the Presidents Cup, so ... I say four wins. I think one comes before the Masters, too. Woods gets No. 83, to pass Sam Snead for the all-time record, before heading to Augusta to defend his green jacket.

Nick, you ignorant slut.  He'll play maybe eight times max, and you're expecting him to win half of those?  Life must be a constant disappointment to you....By the way, Michael, which WGC's will Tiger actually play?  

3. Does he win a major? 

Harig: I like Woods a lot at Royal St. George's, with an outside chance at TPC Harding Park in the PGA Championship. Of course he could defend his Masters victory, but I like The Open better for the reasons he showed in playing Royal Melbourne so well. A links course doesn't require length as much as strategy, and Woods was so good in navigating that type of layout in Australia. And he has all the shots required for the various types of approaches that can be played. He missed a playoff by two shots at Royal St. George's in 2003 after opening the tournament with a triple-bogey. He's also won at Harding Park, but how sharp will he be after an inevitable Masters cooldown? 

Collins: The Open at Royal St. George's. And that's actually going to stink. Why? Because next year is the 150th at St. Andrews! This year he gets to put his name on the trophy with Ben Curtis -- everyone do the sarcastic Bubba Watson "yeah" eye roll.

O'Connor: Yeah, the Masters. If Woods never gets to 18 majors, at least he would have tied Nicklaus with six green jackets. The PGA is going to be the toughest one for him to win going forward. As we saw at Bethpage last year, the revamped and cramped majors schedule makes it tough for Woods to recover physically and emotionally from Augusta in time to contend at the PGA. 

Schlabach: I think he'll be the favorite at the Masters and will be right back in the hunt for a sixth green jacket. I agree with Ian that the condensed majors schedule will make it more difficult for Woods to win a fifth PGA title (and first in 13 years), but he has a good track record at TPC Harding Park, where he won a WGC event in 2005, taking down John Daly in a playoff. He also went 5-0 in match play there at the 2009 Presidents Cup. He hasn't had a lot of success at Winged Foot, so his next-best chance for another major championship is probably at Royal St. George's. He tied for fourth in his only Open appearance there in 2003. 

Pietruszkiewicz: I said two last year. He got one. I am sooooo tempted to say two again this year. What I didn't factor into last year's equation was the weather -- it wasn't warm in May at Bethpage Black, it wasn't warm in June at Pebble Beach, it wasn't warm in July at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. So I am scared a bit by that, given that the PGA is in San Francisco in May, which doesn't exactly scream tropical, and who knows what the weather will be like at The Open. This is a long way of saying Woods will win one. I don't think it'll be the Masters. I think we might be asking too much for him to go back to Augusta and defend. He's done some things in his career only he can do. I'm not sure, at age 44, that repeating at Augusta is something I'm willing to predict. But he'll get one somewhere else. I'll say either the U.S. Open at Winged Foot or The Open at Royal St. George's -- if the weather cooperates.

Wow, it wasn't warm at Portrush?  I mean, really, who but Nostradamus coulda seen that coming?  Or at Pebble with its famous marine layers?  So, you're telling us you're not very good at your job, so why should we care about your 2020 predictions?

I guess we should finish with these guys?

4. When and where will victory No. 83 happen?

Harig: A perfect place would be Riviera next month. It is where he has played the most without a victory. It is where he played in his first PGA Tour event, as a 16-year-old in 1992. And it is where his legacy will endure as the event -- now called the Genesis Invitational -- is run by his foundation and has elevated status, much like the tournaments for Arnold Palmer and Nicklaus. 

Collins: WGC-Mexico Championship late in February. Woods tied Snead in Japan, so it just seems fitting that he breaks the record in Mexico. The fact that it's a small field and a good course for him shouldn't take away from how big this will be. 

O'Connor: Augusta. If anything could be sweeter than winning major title No. 15 last year after an 11-year drought, winning No. 16 to go back-to-back at the Masters -- and breaking Snead's record in the process -- might do the trick. 

Schlabach: Augusta. It wouldn't be as dramatic as last year's win, after such a long drought, but it would be more than fitting. 

Pietruszkiewicz: That conversation we had about expectations? How about we rachet them up even more? He gets No. 83 in his first start of 2020 and wins this weekend at Torrey Pines. Think that'll have us all thinking he's going to win 10 times and grab multiple majors? Again, I'm a victim of the influence of the end of 2019. I admit it. He looked so, so comfortable playing golf in those two events. If that guy shows up at Torrey Pines -- not rusty or tired or with a mysterious ailment he hasn't told anyone about -- we might get this conversation about No. 83 out of the way in a hurry.

Riv might be perfect, but did you look at his record on that track?  Will he play Mexico?  

But this week?  Hard for me to see him even trying all that hard...  I know he always grinds, but he doesn't want to be sharp enough to win just yet?  Way too early...

Now we get to that which profiles as the most interesting issue:

5. Will he make the U.S. Olympic team? 

Harig: It won't be easy, and this is where Woods' personal goals really come into play. If he really wants to be in Tokyo, then I believe he will make it. He will have between nine and 11 events that he is looking to play between now and the cutoff on June 22, after the U.S. Open. He needs to be among the top four Americans in the world. He is ranked sixth, but four Americans are ahead of him: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay. He's got Xander Schauffele right behind him, and Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland and Tony Finau could all be a factor. The competition is going to be fierce, and he can't have many off weeks. A win would certainly help, but several top-five finishes are going to be the minimum in order for Woods to have a chance. 

Collins: The Olympics will find a way to have the biggest star in the sport play on the biggest stage in sports, even if organizers have to let him play under his own flag by declaring his property in Jupiter, Florida, its own independent nation. Here's something to give yourself a headache about: Woods doesn't make the team initially. A Presidents Cup captain's pick is one spot ahead. Should he give up his spot? 

O'Connor: Money in the bank. Woods, at 44, knows this is probably his one-and-done chance to win an Olympic medal, and I see no chance he allows himself to fail to qualify. Seeing him on the gold medal stand, with the national anthem playing, would be a hell of a thing. 

Schlabach: Given that he's contending against Koepka, JT, DJ and Cantlay, the American team is the most difficult Olympic squad to make. Four Americans will make the Olympics if they're ranked inside the top 15 in the world. Even with everything that Woods has accomplished, he called representing the U.S. in the Olympics a bucket-item list. It's going to be difficult, but I'm guessing he finds a way to get it done. 

Pietruszkiewicz: He's going to make the team. He's going to carry the flag during the opening ceremony. He's going to win the gold medal.

Anything OWGR driven is a tough sell for me, because he'll play so infrequently.  I'm thinking he'll need to do something special at Augusta, not necessarily a win, but he better rack up some points.

Michael hints where we're headed, a Karen Crouse article on this subject...  Of course it's Pravda, where they can't even settle on a single vagina for President, so there's no shortage of howlers:

It may comfort Woods that in the post-World War II era, two United States Olympians, the sailors Paul Smart in 1948 and Everard Endt in 1952, have won gold medals in their 50s. So it’s not necessarily now or never for him. But for an Olympic movement ravaged by the cancers of corruption and cheating, and reeling from the retirements of Bolt and Phelps, there would be no time like the present to plug into Woods’s transcendence.

What, Karen, no curlers that won in their sixties?  Tiger's body breaks down very hour-and-a-half, but no urgency....  But it's that last bit that might be the funniest...  Golf is going to fix the broken, corrupt Olympics....  Yanno, I'm old enough to remember when we warned folks about lying down with dogs... 

Here's the gist of her case:

At the 2004 Australian swimming trials, the superstar Ian Thorpe, the world-record

holder and reigning Olympic champion in the 400-meter freestyle, was disqualified from his heat for a false start after he lost his balance on the blocks and fell into the water. The top two finishers in the final qualified for the Athens Games, and scores of Australians soon were publicly calling on Craig Stevens, the runner-up, to relinquish his spot to Thorpe. 

There was no danger that Stevens or Thorpe would miss the Games; both had qualified in other events. But a month later, during a televised interview for which he was paid a six-figure sum, Stevens announced that he was ceding his spot in the 400 freestyle to Thorpe, who went on to successfully defend his Olympic title. 

For the moment, Woods still controls his fate. After his victory last year at the Masters, he described the Olympics as “a big goal,” but he admitted “getting there and making the team is going to be the tough part.”

Wow, that's a whole lot of crazy wrapped up in three' graphs...  She is suggesting that one of the four guys ahead of Tiger get paid off to cede the spot to him.  Gee, under-the-table payments to control the outcome.... Admittedly, it's hard to think of anything more on-brand for the Olympics?   

But, Karen, you obviously don't understand how this game is played.  Tiger simply needs to marry a Slovak girl (Oops, my bad, there's no reason it needs to be a girl.  Any one of the 57 known genders will do).  

As we sit here today, Rory Sabbatini is a mortal lock to be in Tokyo, but Tiger isn't.  I mean, this is an idea so crazy it might just work, but is there a chance we could fix the dreadful format?  I know this is crazy talk, but a tournament without the best players in the world kinda sucks.  Maybe we should stop pretending that it's something special, because that denies us the will to fix it.

And that last graph is curious as well....In what sense does Tiger control what the players ahead and behind him in the OWGR do?  

This seems perfectly on brand as well:

The Idiot's Guide to 2020 Golf

Sorry, Alex, Nick and Karen got there first....

Don't Go There -  Alistair Tait raises point-missing to Olympian heights:

There are just four UAE players ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking. Three of them are amateurs. They are all ranked 2,079th, the lowest ranking on the OWGR.

The single pro in the ranking, Ahmed Al Musharrekh, played nine times on the Meena Tour last season. He missed the cut in seven, was disqualified in another and finished T44 in the Al Ain Open. He earned $408 from that performance, the only money he made on the Meena Tour last year. 

In case you think there are players coming through the amateur ranks who will soon take their place in the world order, think again. There are only two UAE players ranked on the World Amateur Golf Ranking. Ahmad Skaik holds the distinction as the UAE’s leading amateur at world number 3,230. Saif Thabet sits in 6,478th place.

Here's his close:

Many of the above names play this week. The Dubai Desert Classic is so well established it’s one of the longest running current events on the European circuit. It is held on the Majlis course at the Emirates Club, the first, and best, grass golf course in the Middle East. The UAE now boasts a plethora of good golf courses.

These courses might adhere to build it and they will come theory inasmuch as they are very busy, but they haven’t done much for the build it and they will breed notion. Clearly, the UAE hasn’t used these courses as the inspiration to nurture young UAE talent, or we wouldn’t have to scroll to the bottom of the Official World Golf Ranking list for a UAE entry.

Alistair, if you were sufficiently credulous to believe the Euro Tour's Grow the Game nonsense, there's some swamp land we should discuss.

Next up, an honest accounting of the tons of carbon released into the atmosphere from the effort to maintain these golf courses and the number of private jets carrying players and Tour officials there.  Oh, and when we get to Saudi, how about an accounting of here their players are in the OWGR?

Copy And Paste - template Holes are one of the more misunderstood aspects of golf course design, with many considering them mere copies of famous golf holes.  I've not previous noticed Desi Issacson's work at Golf.com, but he takes on this subject:

OK, let’s start from the beginning. What is a template hole and who came up with it? 

Template holes all begin with Charles Blair Macdonald. Golf in America wouldn’t look 

The Punchbowl at National Golf Links of America.

anything like what it does today without the Chicago native. Macdonald took up golf while in college at St. Andrews, and when he returned to the States he started to design Chicago Golf Club in Wheaton, Ill., in 1896, which would become the first 18-hole golf course in the United States. 

While studying courses in the Isles, Macdonald found around 20 different “model” holes that he believed would be fun and playable for both the beginner and expert. He realized the best golf courses used a variety of these holes, which we now refer to as templates holes. On this inaugural design at Chicago Golf Club, Macdonald built many of the holes to resemble his favorite template holes from the British Isles, taking designs from well-known courses like St. Andrews, Prestwick and North Berwick. 

It is important to point out that these are templates, not duplicates. But they are general ideas that, when fit into the surrounding, are some of the greatest holes in the world.

 Actually, I don't think that is the beginning at all.  The beginning is Macdonalds tour of the great course of the Old World, and his appreciation of the great golf holes he found there.  Further, it was the analysis and articulation of the design merits of these holes that's the critical building block.  I would argue that Macdonald's genius was in transferring timeless design principles to American golf courses that's worth celebrating.

What, for instance, is a Road Hole?  Even when we're not on a Macdonald, Raynor or Banks course, we see Capes, Bottles and Shorts....  

Let me give you two examples, and then encourage you to read the rest if the subject is of interest.

First, as you know, I play my home golf at Fairview these days, which is a Robert Trent Jones design.  You'd be hard-pressed to come up with an architect with less reverence for Macdonald than RTJ, yet our 17th hole is a spectacular template of Genus Bottleus, i.e., a Bottle Hole.  

A few years back, the Met. Golf Writers went to Tamarack Golf Club, a Charles Banks design that had been recently renovated by Brian Silva.  Silva presented to the group, but prior to our playing the course.  Their 14th hole is called "Road", but as I played it I could discern to design DNA in common with the original.  Can you?

I was dying to ask Brian what design principles he thought Banks had in mind, but he had the good sense to disappear before I had the opportunity.  Kidding, of course, but this is the fun of templates, seeing how they can be employed in the real world of routing a golf course.

I love such stuff but, of course, your mileage may vary.

Bug, Feature - We're dispensing with folks most precious assumptions today, so shall we train our fire on the round bellies?  Hey, I didn't start it, Eammon Lynch did:

This ought to have been an outstanding week for Miller Brady. The PGA Tour Champions, of which Brady is president, began its season in Hawaii with more fanfare than usual thanks to the debut of Hall of Famer Ernie Els. Nor is Els the only major winner who will slather on the Bengay and saddle up for the senior circuit in 2020. Jim Furyk and Mike Weir both turn 50 on May 12, with Rich Beem following in August.

He's kidding, right?  If Mike Weir and Rich Beem don't move the needle, who can?

But here's the cause of Eammon's sad:

Yet for all the promise this year holds for Brady, it presents a problem too: Phil Mickelson. 

Mickelson turns 50 on June 16. That’s Tuesday of U.S. Open week at Winged Foot, a

tournament he may need — and would almost certainly receive — an exemption into. The first old guys event for which he’s eligible is the U.S. Senior Open, held one week later at Newport Country Club in Rhode Island. Since Mickelson remains focused on completing the career grand slam at the U.S. Open, what are the chances he’s going to pitch up at the geriatric version of the event? 

Slim and none, and slim just left town, as Curtis Strange used to say.

See, I'm a glass half-full kind of guy.  I'm just excited I can watch golf from Newport...  No one has been there since Tiger's second Am.

Here's the gist of his gripes:

On the face of it, the PGA Tour Champions is robust. There are 27 stops on the ‘20 schedule with a total prize fund nearing $60 million. Viewership on Golf Channel averages 133,000, equal to LPGA events and better than the Korn Ferry Tour (figures are skewed since Champions events are usually measured over three days versus four for other Tours). But 40 years after it was founded, the PGA Tour Champions has long since ceased being a showcase for fading legends and is instead an annuity for journeymen who couldn’t draw a crowd if they were playing in thongs amid the many vigorous widows at The Villages.

Who you calling a journeyman?  Scott McCarron?  Wes Short?  Woody Austin?  Steve Flesch?

It's been ever thus, interrupted by brief moments of interest...  remember that Jack-Chi Chi Senior Open playoff?   That might have been the last.

Jack At Eighty - Mostly just some links, if you're inclined to dig deeper:

Seems Low - ‘Yes, Sir!’: The 80 greatest Jack Nicklaus moments But, if you're going with the Verne Lundquist bit, seems to me the accompanying photo should have been in a yellow shirt.  Mind you, I'd still take that '75 Masters over the '86 installment, though it's the six-pack that's really amazing.

I'd go with an ampersand, as they're both pretty damn impressive - With age, Jack Nicklaus' legacy becomes less defined by his record and more by his character  I just wish I liked his design work more.

A Bridge Too Far - Why Jack Nicklaus would dominate modern-day golf  What's wrong with merely celebrating the one he did dominate?

True That - Jack turns 80: Among Jack Nicklaus' greatest achievements is his family And a lovely photo with this one:

No More Golf Courses, OK? - Jack Nicklaus at 80: ‘I’ve still got a lot of things I want to do’

Happy Birthday, Jack.